LAST EDITED ON 04-23-16 AT 11:50 PM (EST)

Good analysis as usual. Took the last couple weeks off because there wasn't really much more to add. The edit seemed to coalesce around what I'd been thinking. Things changed a little this episode.

Here's how I'm handicapping them at the moment.

1. Aubry - At this point, I don't know if the season makes any sense if Aubry doesn't win. Just the "a woman should win" theme, and how obsessively the show has promoted her since the merge. Can you believe that there was a time where we were characterizing her edit as a little "lifeless"?

There is a tiny part of me that wonders if this is just a Kelley Wentworth thing again. But I think about what happened last season with Kelley's underdog role and her impressive idol play, and I don't think they really had a choice to edit the season that way. With Aubry, I can kinda imagine a version of the story where she is a more minor character. She obviously had to be an somewhat important character, given what happened (the vote-cross-out, convincing Tai) but the Neal and Nick boot episodes were really superfluous stuff. Even in this amazing episode for her, we probably don't need Jason and Scot shilling her to the audience. We already kinda know how amazing she is with the Tai stuff.

If Aubry wins, we should probably have a discussion of the evolution of the Female Winner on Survivor. From Natalie White to Sandra #2 to Sophie to Kim to Denise to Natalie Anderson. Try to find the common trends of how they edit their female winners.

2. Tai - I guess I kinda discounted him because of the woman-winning thing and that the big character edits rarely go on to win. With his Star Wars-esque temptation and redemption edit, you gotta at least take him seriously. If Tai did go on to win the game, I think they would over-expose him like he is right now. Him winning would just be a bonus to his edit.

3. Michele - Yeah, I think this episode was really bad for her too. It started out okay when she was talking about the guys and being strong and food and stuff, but she ultimately ended up as the +1 to Julia. And given where Julia is, that's a lousy place to be. Her earlier visibility and her position in the game makes me still give her #3, but really cooling on her from an edit-perspective.

I had talked about her being an Erinn from Tocantins, and I think that's about right. I think she's a losing finalist. I know Erinn didn't get to FTC, but close enough for comparison sake. Michelle has enough visibility to make her FTC inclusion make sense, but not enough substance to be a satisfying winner. I get where the Cult of Michele is coming from and there's a tiny part of me that worries about it. As-is, I just feel like Michele winning would probably be one of the most unsatisfying scenarios, given how blah her gameplay is. Even Cydney, Julia, or Jason would be more interesting wins. So I'm a little spooked about it.

4. Cydney - I liked Cydney as the sleeper pick up through the Nick boot. But the last two episodes were awful for her. You got Scot characterizing her flip as being for "no reason"... Even though they did explain it in the Nick episode. But they've never let Cydney herself explain it again. If Cydney were the winner, they would've driven home how obvious it is the guys were going with Nick and not her. Cydney might also be a losing finalist, the person that the jury yells at or whatever. They've certainly foreshadowed that Jason/Scot are less than pleased with her.

5. Julia - Yeah, if Julia were the winner, they'd make a bigger deal about such a young contestant winning the game. And they wouldn't be portraying her as a traitor-@ss. And Jason probably wouldn't be portrayed as unlikeable. She's at least getting a strategic edit, which is more than they're willing to give a lot of pretty girls on the show. So kudos to her, I suppose. But I think she's gone next.

6. Jason - Nah. All the Alecia stuff was a huge red flag, obviously, and the post-merge wasn't much better. They at least tried to go through the motions of portraying Jason's sabotage as "strategic" and threw a lot of blame on Scot. Him being all complimentary to Aubry also helps him. But still waaaaaay too unlikeable an edit.

7. Joe - Who? His edit is a little Dan Lembo'ish in invisibility, so maybe he gets cut before FTC. Does it makes sense for a finalist to be at the end with such an invisible edit? They didn't let Brett in the finals in Samoa. Maybe he's the one who finishes 4th? Or maybe he's the first boot in the finale? I could see him being a finalist if Michele wins and they need us to care. But Aubry/Joe in the finals doesn't make a ton of sense.

Thinking Aubry/Michele/Cydney are our finalists, with Jason and Julia our next two boots.