Agree, Natalie is finishing strong no matter how things turn out for her, she will go down fighting or scrap her way to the end. As well, her determination to "get revenge" for the Jeremy blindside is not being portrayed as a negative, it is simply a motive behind her strategy.

Jaclyn did surge impressively in ep 11, but again the portrayal shows her as having game awareness. She knows she isn't in everyone's F3 plan and wants to punch her ticket to Final Tribal. But she also wants to be perceived as an equal partner with Jon, not an Amber.

Unfortunately for her, and for Baylor, they cut all ties to their original Coyopa tribemates Josh and Wes and Alec, which also distances them from Reed. Of those four Alec alone might be willing to forgive and forget.

I don't think Jon is getting quite the hero edit, more the good guy edit because in some ways he is smart and in other ways just naive.

Anyway, factors you bring up .. Let's do the math.

Numbers now do not favor splitting the vote. For all we know Day 36, the next TC, is the last time that HII's can be played for immunity. In which case anyone holding onto one might as well play it. Natalie really has no reason to play hers for anyone but herself unless she thinks she is absolutely safe, has II. Jon could play his for himself or for Jaclyn, if he thinks that gesture will help him. If Jon has II he might as well play his for Jaclyn. Keith is clearly still in the game for one reason only, to win the next IC or somehow make certain Jon does not.

How would a Missy medivac at this point in the game alter things? Too late in the game for production to do much but cancel the next TC and head right into finale mode, no two-boot ep.

Jury dynamic .. unchanged. If she were to need to be hospitalized she might not be able to do jury duty and the jury could then potentially remain a boys club to the end of the game.

Other factors to bear in mind: Missy knows about Natalie's HII but attributes it to Baylor; Missy knows about Big Moose's HII because Jon is naive.