LAST EDITED ON 11-29-13 AT 08:40 PM (EST)

I've resurrected this thread in order to comment on the post by Television in the current Vidcap thread that references the speculation that Gervase votes 'Monica' in the upcoming TC.

If this is how it goes down, no wonder Gervase is getting the overlooked edit. What a way to throw away his game entirely. You make that move at 7, not 6. ~ Television

I'm not certain that this is "how it goes down", but if it is - and if the spoiler that identifies Tyson, Gervase and Monica as the F3 is also how it goes down - then I think that it is most probable that it is Tyson who is sent to Redemption Island via the draw. I can think of no other probable way - excluding a second, consecutive II - that Gervase would survive his betrayal of Tyson at the first F5 Tribal.

Too, I think that Tyson's expulsion is the only probable explanation for "gasps" from the crew. If they were truly prompted by the 'reveal', I don't think that Katie's or Ciera's imminent departure would have produced that reaction.

And, I can think of no other probable explantion for JP's presumably-prescient - aren't they all - assertion that the Game was going to be a fight until the end. Because in any other scenario, Tyson remains comfortably at the head of a 3-person majority and still running the show.

ETA: Ciera's banishment to Redemption Island would (assuming that it was Gervase who provided the third Monica vote) leave Tyson in a minority of two. But, without some really tortured reasoning, I can't reconcile that scenario with his ... and Gervase's ... and Monica's ... (spoiled) F3 placement.

Finally, I think that it is far more probable that Tyson returns from Redemption Island at F4 (to become the fifth member of the second, Finale F5) and subsequently survives to F3 than it is that Gervase does.

In any case, it is certainly in everyone else's best interest to seat Katie and Ciera - comfortably - in the Jury.

And yes, I realize that this is exactly what "they" want me to think ...