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Original Message
"*Official* S27 SOURCES thread."
Posted by tribephyl on 08-10-13 at 08:05 PM
Do Not Enter if you want to avoid boot lists. All material within was gleaned from the muck that is Sucks.

To begin, we have 3 people whom claim to have sources; Ichiro20, Cronix and SurvivorsUnite.
Ichiro has released a lot of info and has been branded a falsifier by the community at large and by the 2 other sourced spoilers, Cronix and SurvivorsUnite.
Cronix and SU both accept the each others info and have only been posting responses to posters questions.
A great Suckster known as SurvivorNinja has done her best to compile Cronix and SU's info together and into a quick bullet list for ease. I will deposit that list of spoils immediately below.

- Colton quits (cronix)
- Kat, Candice, John, Rupert and Laura B are all pre merge (SU, Kat/Candice/John confirmed by Mister Plum's pics)
- Tribes are Faves vs Family (SU)
- One World cast not targeted (or not successfully) as originally thought (SU)
- Gervase and Tyson do VERY WELL (SU, cronix)
- Candice replace RC (SU)
- Tyson is F3 along with 2 other returnees (SU)
- Gervase does as well as Tyson (SU)
- The final spot in the F3 is female (SU)
- Someone from OW does well, but not enough to win...Monica (SU)
- Monica potentially won't win because of her husband (SU)
- F3 is Monica, Tyson, Gervase...likely Gerv or Tyson win. (SU)
- Monica could be the sherri, or jury doesn't want her to have more money (SU)
- RI is back (cronix, SU)
- Tyson has a leg up at FTC. (SU)
- Rupert screws his game for his wife (SU)
- contestants can trade places with loved ones on RI..implies this is rupert's fate (cronix)
- 2 people voted out in premier (cronix)
- both tribes vote someone out..implies Candice out but john doesn't trade with her. (Cronix)
- Hayden makes jury (cronix)
- Laura m and Ciera both jury (cronix)
- Tina and Katie both jury (cronix)
- Colton quits pre merge (cronix)
- At least 2 of the finalists loved ones go pre jury (cronix)
- Tyson's leg up is NOT that his loved one is the only one on jury. (Cronix)
- Colton and caleb ARE seperated..one jury, one not. (cronix)
- 2/4 are correct: Colton/Caleb jury, Aras/brad pre jury...later confirmed that Brad/Colton miss jury, Aras/Caleb therefore make jury. (Cronix)
- Brad is NOT on jury (cronix)

A bootlist was proposed and met with agreement from Cronix. Placements (outside of Final3) are subject to change and I might also note that there is a HUGE difference between when a survivor is "voted" out and when they are "booted", so determining if this is Vote or Boot relative will have to wait to be seen.
PreJury:
Rupert
Laura B.
Kat
Candice
John
Brad
Colton
Rachel

Jury:
Marissa
Hayden
Katie
Tina
Cierra
Laura M
Aras
Vytus
Caleb

F3:
Monica
Gervase
Tyson

It is still early so more info will undoubtedly be added to this list.


Now, I will try to do the same with Ichiro's "questionable" sourced material so that we have something to compare and contrast.

Ichiro20
7/19: Hayden may very well win Fan Favorite
___
7/21: 1 showmance that lasts for 4 episodes (cut off before merge) happens .. one male makes the merge the other doesn't
___

7/24:
Boot list from Voltage: All you ready for the boot list?! Here it is!

20. Rupert
19. Caleb
18. Candice
17. Laura B.
16. Kat
15. (Marissa)
14. Colton
13. John
12. Monica
11. Aras
10. Brad
9. Katie
8. Tina
7. Gervase
6. Rachel
5. Vytas
4. Hayden

FINAL 3:
- Laura M.
- Ciera
- Tyson

This is actually 80% correct (early boot order is not correct)

Tyson wins 3 individual immunities and USES 1 idol (gets it from Laura)
___
7/25:
? from Cisa: Does he blindside someone or it goes out in flames?
How many IIs does Hayden win?
Out in flames
Hayden wins 2 (late in the game)
---
Merge color is Purple
---
I don't have a complete boot list, but I'm certain of my spoilers
___
7/27: And the returning players go in w/ a 2 person advantage to the merge.
____
7/29:Returning Survivors vs. Family members
At one point Rupert's wife is offered a chance to swap tribes, but declines.
_____
8/2: To start with something fun.... Hayden and Tyson do not get along this season (at merge) and have a major blowup after Hayden wins an immunity challenge. Think Jamie and Bobby Jon type hilarity.
____
8/:2 Gervase pretty much sails through to the merge. A very strong physical benefit to the favorites tribe. One significant conflict/moment happens at a pre merge TC when he argues against throwing challenges when Candice forces them to an early TC.
When we get to the merge though.... he gets semi "betrayed" when the tribe teams up to boot him.
Not sure of his vote at final TC, but it was one of the more abrasive ones.
____
8/3: The best comparison I could give this season for Tyson is Cochran. A very comical player, but a pretty intense game player this time as well (doesn't do anything as stupid as HvV). A great fan moment tho happens at first TC with him and Rupert. No that does not mean he wins.
No major challenge dominators this season pretty spread out in terms of individual immunity wins. Ciera does well in challenges. Lots of water challenges this season.
Nothing funny with Tyson's FTC.... he makes it pretty close to winning it all so understandably hes still a tad bit bitter at FTC.
___
8/3: Tina is in the final 3. Once again playing a tremendous social game, but surprisingly wins 2 immunities (including final immunity). Having said that I do not think she indeed wins.
___
8/4: Aras is not one of the "first few" out.
And Laura is absolutely 1000% not the merge boot. Ridiculous. She basically runs the game this season.
Is Hayden a winner though? I wouldn't say for sure, but its between him and a certain C.
The only thing that's changed from my spoilers are that Tina does not finish in fifth place, she makes the finals.
I was told in general terms that she made the finale and didnt win and then deduced 5th place, but after checking with my sources again in turns out she did make the finals. But she will not win most likely. Highly unlikely.
I stand by all my spoilers about the game of SURVIVOR
YOUR FINALE EPISODE:
Ciera (winner) *
Hayden (runner up)*
Tina (2nd runner up)
-----
Tyson
Vytas
___
8/4: Laura is either 5th or 6th (Swap with Tina)
All I did was swap Tina and Laura's placements, calm down weird person.
Tina either places 2nd or 3rd (most likely 3rd).
Both are "older" mothers, which confused my source.
___
8/4: Does everyone get votes at the FTC?
Yes
I assume Tina gets at least one jury vote (hint hint)
___
8/4: Colton... not a quitter

You can obviously see the differences. Which is probably why most don't believe Ichiro.

But we will see...

I will now have to go on temporary but vital rehab vacation from sucks. So please add any new info, Or bootlists below.

Have a great season!

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Tyson's leg-up."
Posted by Estee on 08-11-13 at 09:53 AM
I'll assume MB would still briefly consider throwing him out of the game if he cut off someone else's leg, so here's a few other shark-jumpers. In each case, I'm going to assume he wins this during one last pre-Finals competition.

Negate one vote Pick a juror of your choice. Their ballot doesn't count. Choose after TC by secret vote, which gives you the chance to screw yourself.

Automatic tiebreaker win There is no live challenge!

Substitute one juror, presumably with your loved one Doesn't really work here because we know people went to Sequesterville.

Begin one phantom vote up It's 1-0-0 before the questioning even starts.

You're Jiffie's favorite and he'll rig the ballot box for you Automatic!

"RE: Tyson's leg-up."
Posted by tribephyl on 08-11-13 at 01:27 PM
I'll admit when I first read about Tyson's "leg up" I immediately thought of him as having JP's favor going into the finals. Like a happy handy for the EP?

With Tyson's relative NOT being a part of the jury, and Gervase's relative ON the jury, I imagine Tyson is already a couple of legs down, so he would essentially have to have 3 extra legs in order to catch up and surpass Gervase.

My real thought is that Tyson must be allied with Gervase and be the decision maker of that pair as well.
I can see many reasons jurors won't vote for Monica, her financial status definitely being the paramount one, but no one likes a smug trophywife either.

"RE: *Official* S27 SOURCES thread."
Posted by Jims02 on 08-11-13 at 02:35 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-11-13 AT 02:42 PM (EST)

I admit, I never look at spoilers (because the sourced ones were ruining the show for me), but I looked this year because I wanted to see how Tina did. I thought it would've been really sad if she flamed out again, so it's nice to see she probably made at least the jury.

I heard something nebulous on Sucks about a cast get-together in Florida where people were saying it sounded like Tina made the Final 3. But it was all very vague and second-hand, and other people (like cronix and SU) contradicted the idea. Also, Ichiro has splashed around in that thread so much, it's difficult to believe him at this point.

If the Tyson/Gervase final is correct, then we should be able to tell by how much Jiffy hypes the winner for this season. If he says very little about how excited we'll be for the winner, and speaks more generally about the season, it'll probably be another Sophie-like result instead.


A 2003 IceCat original

"RE: *Official* S27 SOURCES thread."
Posted by tribephyl on 08-11-13 at 03:12 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-11-13 AT 03:14 PM (EST)

I noticed no sadness over Rupert flaming out? lol

Anyways, the progression for Tina alone has been extremely wide and varying. Originally she was said to be one of the first out. Then she was said to get into the Final three and has only recently been placed late jury. Only one close to that would be Monica whom started in pre-jury and has since been bumped up to F3.

The "Celebration" rumors really need to be parsed and judged in the context of psuedo-celebrities, a little licquored-up and being hounded by fans wanting to post something of "worth" when the party is over. Over-salting may need to be the requirement.

Of note, regarding the bootlist, is that "pairs" get targeted first, and once the "partner" is gone, the "remaining" gets pretty darned far.
The 3 exclusions to this are Aras/Vytus, LauraM/Ciera and Tina/Katie.
Methinks the 6 of them are the deciders for a huge portion of the early game. Where post-merge the "singletons" make their move and take over.
Speculation, of course.

"Hayden spoiler via BB feeds at Jokers "
Posted by suzzee on 08-27-13 at 05:50 PM
Take it for what it's worth.

From: val4127 8/27 at 11:26am

Elissa and Judd talking about Hayden on survivor. She said before she got in the house, she was told Hayden was final 4.

After that comment...Fish.

Elissa then goes on to say that she would like to be picked up for Survivor. Ah, another budding reality TV career girl. Oye.


"And at the merge..."
Posted by Bebo on 11-03-13 at 11:17 PM
With the merge coming this week, we can see that the Ichiro spoilers were crap, and the Cronus/SU ones are almost perfect. Marissa making the jury is the only error I see on the list.

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by tribephyl on 11-06-13 at 06:03 PM
That Marissa error is enough to make waves at sucks though.


Now the difficult part becomes figuring out the placements of our Juror's.
Other than the Elissa/BB connection for Hayden, (which I am hesitant to place any faith in) there aren't any other real spoilers for placements and who comes back into the game at F5/F4.

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by Georjanna on 11-29-13 at 05:12 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-29-13 AT 08:40 PM (EST)

I've resurrected this thread in order to comment on the post by Television in the current Vidcap thread that references the speculation that Gervase votes 'Monica' in the upcoming TC.

If this is how it goes down, no wonder Gervase is getting the overlooked edit. What a way to throw away his game entirely. You make that move at 7, not 6. ~ Television

I'm not certain that this is "how it goes down", but if it is - and if the spoiler that identifies Tyson, Gervase and Monica as the F3 is also how it goes down - then I think that it is most probable that it is Tyson who is sent to Redemption Island via the draw. I can think of no other probable way - excluding a second, consecutive II - that Gervase would survive his betrayal of Tyson at the first F5 Tribal.

Too, I think that Tyson's expulsion is the only probable explanation for "gasps" from the crew. If they were truly prompted by the 'reveal', I don't think that Katie's or Ciera's imminent departure would have produced that reaction.

And, I can think of no other probable explantion for JP's presumably-prescient - aren't they all - assertion that the Game was going to be a fight until the end. Because in any other scenario, Tyson remains comfortably at the head of a 3-person majority and still running the show.

ETA: Ciera's banishment to Redemption Island would (assuming that it was Gervase who provided the third Monica vote) leave Tyson in a minority of two. But, without some really tortured reasoning, I can't reconcile that scenario with his ... and Gervase's ... and Monica's ... (spoiled) F3 placement.

Finally, I think that it is far more probable that Tyson returns from Redemption Island at F4 (to become the fifth member of the second, Finale F5) and subsequently survives to F3 than it is that Gervase does.

In any case, it is certainly in everyone else's best interest to seat Katie and Ciera - comfortably - in the Jury.


And yes, I realize that this is exactly what "they" want me to think ...

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by tribephyl on 11-30-13 at 06:14 AM
firstly, the cameramen gasps I believe are more directed at the "purple rock" scenario in and of itself, not who is the boot because of it.

However, I would like to also add a "hint" that ended up having some strange tangents created because of it BUT could be used as another reason for booting Tyson now.
The original hint was that in an F3 of Monica, Gervase and Tyson; Monica is out because she is already well off financially and the real vote will come down to Gervase versus Tyson. And in that F2 scenario, Tyson has a "leg-up" on Gervase.

This Leg-up was thought to be that Marissa and Brad were pre-jury but Rachel was on the jury. As we can tell, this did not come true, all of their loved ones were pre-jury.
But IF Tyson does go to RI this week, then returns at F4, that could indeed be the "leg-up" that was thought to push his finale vote tally higher than Gervase's would be.

If it works out like that then JP must have creamed his jeans knowing that the stupidest twist has resulted in his favorite of the season getting exactly what production wanted. A Redemption Islander return and wins the game.

As of now, I too have been crunching the numbers as correlating to the moves needed not only for this week but with the next few TCs as well and frankly put, I am having just as difficult of a time cramming any one of them into the box of what we know.
1. Gervase has the IN. (Gervase couldn't win tic-tac-toe against a toddler. Unless the IC is somehow related to basketball, I just don't see him winning.)
2. Monica and Hayden are the targets and recipients of multiple tie-votes. (If Gervase has the IN why isn't Tyson the target? Probably because Tyson is immune in some way, at least in the beginning. I think Tyson wins IC and gives the IN to Gervase at TC. Putting himself in danger, Tyson wins massive respect from his Vet allies and guarantees Gervase won't stab him in the back.)
3. Tyson or Katie (or Ciera) is the "voted" out via a white rock. (I still don't see images of Ciera holding a rock out and from the look of the caps we have of Hayden, he does have an arm held in a higher position. Are we sure the vote does not come down to Ciera vs Monica?)


One thing I do know is that Katie is a non-entity to this season. Hayden seems to have a coherent grasp of what's going on but he also seems to be, up til now, a one step behind kind of guy. Ciera, I originally thought was going to be a sort of darkhorse, has proven to be just as unpredictable as her tribemates claim she is. Three votes should be Tyson, Monica and Gervase. Of those three, Gervase is the ONLY one who might consider making a move against his alliance. Even then that is such a huge stretch, I can't wrap my head around why he would do such a thing. He'd go from a known F3 to a possible F4.
To me, I think the vets will stay together and Ciera will flip-flop and side with the newbs this council. I can't see Gervase wanting to switch alliances at F6. But Ciera has been called a flip-flopper before.

Ive read through this multiple times and keep going back and adding more but now I'm not even sure I'm being coherent at all. It's late and I must go to bed.

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by CTgirl on 11-30-13 at 11:23 AM
FWIW, Missyae has tweeted that Katie pulls the white rock and Tina is the returnee. So how does that fit in with your conjectures?
"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by tribephyl on 12-01-13 at 02:59 AM
LOL
Well, Katie leaving is totally predictable. But Tina coming back? hahpfft...ahem ... really?

Well, I am one of the few who do like Jim and feel a little hurt by his snubbing me but I go on record saying I tend towards believing him. Those with as many connections as he has tend to hear things from time to time. I myself have recently jumped a degree or two of separation to some very VIPish individuals and if you need info about Brittany Spears new show (please don't ask, I am bound by contract) or the personal tastes of particular celebrity chefs (Sorry, confidentiality agreement) just ask. I will do my best to bite my lip and blush.

So I guess, good on Tina. Didn't know she still had it in her AND surprising her edit hasn't been a bit more on the obvious side. Like Laura saying she'll definitely be back in the game. or Tyson saying he'll kick everyones a$$ if he goes to RI.
My personal thought is that Tina and Katie are tied together in the game, neither has been very effective in playing a classically "good" game and I speculate that both won't reach F4.
But that's me.... and I don't know why I feel the need to beat it into people's heads that I have been more often wrong than right, like WAAAAY more wrong than right (I can count on 2 hands the amount of times I've ACTUALLY gotten something right. And in 13 years those aren't necessarily good odds.) but I do.


"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by CTgirl on 12-01-13 at 10:55 AM
I watched this week's episode after I saw Jim's tweet. Tina got a confessional after Vytas's ouster. It was subtle but I think she got it because she's the returnee. I agree, I expect her to be voted out as soon as she returns though. No F4 for her.

In retrospect I think they put so much emphasis on that first challenge when Tina and Laura pulled out the win for their team totally schooling the newbies because when Katie and Ciera make it to RI, the moms beat them again.

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by Murphy3126 on 11-30-13 at 03:52 PM
I can't see Tyson giving up II under any circumstances. If he still controls enough votes, Gervase is safe, if not, Tyson can't risk being defeated by Laura M or Tina in some kind of puzzle challenge. Promo with Gervase listening to vote out Tyson seens to be diversion, & Gervase has not stood out against anyone playing hard. Ciera is likely the flipper, Monica is a team player, one that has only needed a bit more assurance she was on the team for F3 than what Tyson has wanted to give so he could play the field. If Tyson were smart, he would have sealed Monica as a F3 several TC's ago.
"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by Georjanna on 11-30-13 at 04:55 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-02-13 AT 12:09 PM (EST)



Time to wake up! There are riddles to solve ...

And I hope you don't mind if I break your post into sequential segments so that I have some hope of organizing my own thoughts about all of this. So, first:

" ... cameramen gasps I believe are more directed at the "purple rock" scenario in and of itself ...

However, I would like to also add a "hint" that ended up having some strange tangents created because of it BUT could be used as another reason for booting Tyson now.

The original hint was that in an F3 of Monica, Gervase and Tyson; Monica is out because she is already well off financially and the real vote will come down to Gervase versus Tyson. And in that F2 scenario, Tyson has a "leg-up" on Gervase.


This Leg-up was thought to be that ... Rachel was on the jury ...this did not come true ... But IF Tyson does go to RI this week, then returns at F4, that could indeed be the "leg-up" that was thought to push his finale vote tally higher than Gervase's would be.

If it works out like that then ... the stupidest twist has resulted in (JP's) favorite of the season getting exactly what production wanted. A Redemption Islander return and wins the game."

Okay! We can, then, disregard the gasps. As for the "hint":

As you know, speculation has been all over God's little green acre about just what advantage (over Gervase) Tyson takes into the F3. And I agree that if Tyson did come to it by way of Redemption Island it would be impressive to a Jury. And your's is the best supposition that I've yet seen about why Tyson has received such an over-the-top edit. I hadn't thought of a Redemption Island connection. So that is two points in favor of his ouster this week.

But I've thought for some time (since Aras' exit interviews) that if the advantage exists, it is that Gervase's relationship with Aras was a personal friendship that Aras relied upon. And I think that, at least for the remainder of their participation in the Game, the brothers were united. So I think that there were two Jury votes that Gervase just wasn't going to get.

Note: As for Gervase winning the Game:

I won't belabor the Astrology angle, but I will say that Gervase is a Water (Scorpio) native playing Survivor in a Season that features a Fire and Air Majority. And in only three of twenty Majority/Minority Seasons has a member of the Minority won. Tina was one of the three. It would, therefore, be extraordinary if Gervase won the Game. In fact, as a practical matter, it just isn't going to happen.

And now, back to speculation ... :

Speaking of 'hints', this is probably a good place to introduce the supposedly sourced information that Hayden goes out at F4 to the conversation ... which means that if he wasn't sent to Redemption Island in the interim, he survived two more Cycles/Tribal Councils - the two F5s - after openly opposing Tyson (and his shrinking alliance).

Then, we also have the information that CT has just brought: Jim Early has tweeted that it is Katie who draws the white (Redemption Island) rock and that it is her mother who returns to the Game at the First F4/2nd F5.

And simply because Katie leaving the Tribe exactly when Tyson intended her to exit would be the most boring, mundane, routine finish to the evening's festivities imaginable, I don't for a moment doubt that Mr. Early is, this time, publishing the truth, damn it! Or that Probst's after-the-party pronouncement is everything but the truth, damn it!

That would mean, of course, that the whole matter could be really very simple: Ciera, not Gervase, was the third of Hayden's trio. And she goes at F5-1. Tina goes at F4-1/F5-2. Hayden goes at F4. The Jury (I can't resist), consists of six Fire (spontaneous/physical) and Air (intellectual) natives and only two - Tina and Katie - Earth (practical) and Water (emotional) personalities. And that would not have been good news for Gervase.

But, just in case it isn't really that simple, here is the next portion of your well-reasoned - perfectly coherent - message:

"As of now, I too have been crunching the numbers ... and ... I am having just as difficult of a time cramming any one of them into the box of what we know.

1. Gervase has the IN. (Gervase couldn't win tic-tac-toe against a toddler ...

2. Monica and Hayden are the targets and recipients of multiple tie-votes. (If Gervase has the IN why isn't Tyson the target? Probably because Tyson is immune in some way, at least in the beginning. I think Tyson wins IC and gives the IN to Gervase at TC. Putting himself in danger, Tyson wins massive respect from his Vet allies and guarantees Gervase won't stab him in the back.)

3. Tyson or Katie (or Ciera) is the "voted" out via a white rock. (I still don't see images of Ciera holding a rock out and from the look of the caps we have of Hayden, he does have an arm held in a higher position. Are we sure the vote does not come down to Ciera vs Monica?)"

This is where my head starts to hurt. But I am sure of at least one thing: having three votes cast against you initially was salvation in this scenario. It made you eligible for immunity-via-tie at the second, re-vote. And as long as all subsequent votes - and the Rules that were published back in 2010 made it clear that, then, there might have been multiple re-votes - remained tied, you were home free: no rock.

So, I think that Tyson was the target from the beginning. Neither side had a fourth vote. And, so long as no one wavered after the first vote, the two who received those three votes were safe: and that is the last thing that Hayden and Katie wanted for Tyson. They couldn't vote him out but they could force him to draw a rock. And if everyone knew - or suspected- and I think that they did - that the vote was going to be - and stay - a tie, it very probably is true that Tyson gave Gervace the IN before the vote - knowing that Monica would then, automatically, become a part of the tie and - with Gervase - immune from the rocks. And if he did that I will - reluctantly but sincerely - applaud the screen.

And you, sir, are in my opinion, on a roll. Because if you think about it, if Tyson knew (or even if he didn't) that Ciera was going to flip, he had very good reasons in addition to that one to want her out of the Game.

For starters, her mother was takin' names at Redemption Island and I don't think that after fighting the couples vs singles battle for so long he would have welcomed Laura returning to her daughter ... in his space. Nor did he want to sit beside Ciera in front of Laura, The Juror. So Ciera was going as soon as possible anyway. And if he made certain that 'his' three votes were for Ciera, there was the possibility that either Katie or Hayden would blink and cast a fourth vote for her during the re-votes. And he could then - to Ciera, The Juror - very honestly say that 'his' vote or votes was/were not her undoing.

But if Hayden and Katie stood firm, the odds were still on his side. And if he made it through the drawing, Ciera would still be there as a target for another, fast-arriving day.

Too, Tyson has throughout the Game been far more concerned about the danger of 'couples' than about the threat of an IC run by any one of the other men. Including Hayden.

So, I've taken the long way around to say that I think that you may be right to question if the vote came down to Monica and Ciera. I think that it's very possible that it did.

And here are the last of your remarks:

"One thing I do know is that Katie is a non-entity to this season. Hayden seems to have a coherent grasp of what's going on but he also seems to be, up til now, a one step behind kind of guy. Ciera, I originally thought was going to be a sort of darkhorse, has proven to be just as unpredictable as her tribemates claim she is. Three votes should be Tyson, Monica and Gervase. Of those three, Gervase is the ONLY one who might consider making a move against his alliance. Even then that is such a huge stretch, I can't wrap my head around why he would do such a thing. He'd go from a known F3 to a possible F4.

To me, I think the vets will stay together and Ciera will flip-flop and side with the newbs this council. I can't see Gervase wanting to switch alliances at F6. But Ciera has been called a flip-flopper before."

First, about Gervase:

At the very beginning of the Game, Gervase acknowledged that he really didn't 'play' the Game the first time around. And he was very straightforward about the fact that he very much wanted to win this time and that he was aware of the fact that he couldn't do that by constantly standing in someone else's shadow. And yet that is exactly what he's done - again. And if Hayden made him realize that, perhaps he did flip. But if he did, I don't think that Tyson knew about his plan before the vote.

Perhaps, though, I underestimate Tyson's determination to win the same Game. Because I don't suppose it should surprise anyone to learn that he was not above rehabilitating an errant ally with a healthy dose of guilt. Think Ian ... and Katie (of Guatemala)

Finally, about Katie (of Blood vs Water). And I'll be brief (because I said that I wouldn't belabor the Astrology):

Katie is a Cancer. They are quiet, reflective, observant and extremely private individuals ... naturally. And they will routinely require solitude.

Think of how many times during Guatemala that you only saw Danni in the background - alone. Or the marvelously witty Cirie - alone. Remember when she, Ozzy, Amanda and Parvati were discussing Penner (I think) and Cirie abruptly announced that she was going for a walk - that she had to get away.

Remember JC (Gabon) - who almost missed a Challenge (or Tribal) because he'd taken a boat and taken off. And James (Palau), who stopped in mid-Challenge to become one with his skirt?

Sophie is a Cancer. And she won the Game ...

And so. I don't know if we've solved anything. But I've certainly enjoyed the conversation.



"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by suzzee on 12-01-13 at 11:20 AM
Beautifully summarized Georj.


I should be watched....closely.

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by Georjanna on 12-02-13 at 02:49 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-02-13 AT 03:04 PM (EST)

Thank you, Suzzee.

Until this just-past Episode, the edited Tyson that we had seen was an exemplar of remarkable self-discipline and cool calculation: an attractive Sole Survivor-about-to-be.

But, if Episode 11 is an indication of a trend, we are going to see at least some of the boorish and erratic - painfully nervous - behavior that we've seen before when Tyson became fully engaged in the Game and increasingly close to being successful at it.

And it is the unpredictability of that behavior pattern that makes it so hard to come to a conclusion about whether Hayden or Laura's daughter got those three votes.

I do think, though, that it could be edited as brilliance and very probably will be if - preserving guilt as an immediate and/or Final Tribal Council weapon - Tyson 'protected' all three of his allies from not only Hayden and Katie but also from each other by giving the IN to Gervase and forcing a tie vote between Monica and Ciera.

Fun ...


"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by tribephyl on 12-03-13 at 04:26 AM
Tyson 'protected' all three of his allies from not only Hayden and Katie but also from each other by giving the IN to Gervase and forcing a tie vote between Monica and Ciera.

Finally, after five days of trying to come up with what I'm thinking, you come up with it exactly.

He, somehow (and only if the white rock doesn't show up in his hand), will solidify his standing as an outwit-master if this comes to fruition.
If I were a cameraman, I would gasp for sure.

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 12-03-13 at 11:34 AM
LAST EDITED ON 12-03-13 AT 11:36 AM (EST)

I love the scenario you've laid out and it fits the possible happenings as shown in the previews ... but ... if you've got an alliance of four, why would anyone go through all those theatrics to put yourself at risk of pulling the wrong coloured stone? Just have your four vote together to get one of the two of Hayden/Katie out.

Redemption Island is no guarantee of being able to get back into the game as there's always a challenge you might not be good at. Laura is a pretty formidable RI threat to go up against, so anyone who might be banking on going there and then coming back into the game to enhance one's status in the game is just asking for it.

Occam's Razor tells me that it's more likely that something else happened and someone flipped or threatens to flip, so there's some scrambling to cover their behinds to create this tie scenario.

"RE: And at the merge..."
Posted by Georjanna on 12-04-13 at 08:39 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-13 AT 08:46 PM (EST)

Hello, Pepe ...

I certainly agree that if Tyson had felt confident that he had a solid four going into the Tribal Council, it would not have been as dramatic as we have been promised. I do think that it is very probable that Tyson knew something and/or someone was afoot () and that he was simply covering as many bases as possible. And I apologize if I confused the issue. I don't think that Tyson planned or preferred Redemption Island. However, I do think that he took the gamble ... deliberately.

And I do think that if he was successful in limiting the damage of a betrayal by effecting the exclusion of Ciera and Monica from the re-votes and buying Gervase's votes with the IN in order to retain a voting majority despite one defection - and in storing up an arsenal of guilt for later, Redemption Island or no - his edit will be a thing to behold.

"After The Show ... "
Posted by Georjanna on 12-04-13 at 11:14 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-04-13 AT 11:16 PM (EST)

I am seventy-one. And you would think that by now I would have learned to cease talking in those rare moments when I'm ahead!

You were so right about the scrambling, Pepe. And I was so wrong about the brilliance that I would have much preferred over 'Winning one for the Rachel'.

But still really fun, don't you think ...

"RE: After The Show ... "
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 12-04-13 at 11:32 PM
Heh, I'll give you full kudos since you did call it in the first place, *grin* Good call on that scenario!

It really amazes me that today's Survivors continue to shoot themselves in the foot by openly declaring who's the fourth (or fifth or sixth) in an alliance. That's dumb! Never make someone feel like they're at the bottom of the totem pole lest they get the itch to switch things up - or vote against you in the final tribal council. Rob succeeded in S22 Redemption Island because he made Phillip, Natalie, Ashley and Grant all feel like they were working 1-on-1 with him to get to the end.

"RE: After The Show ... "
Posted by Georjanna on 12-05-13 at 01:29 AM
It really amazes me that today's Survivors continue to shoot themselves in the foot by openly declaring who's the fourth (or fifth or sixth) in an alliance. That's dumb!

I always think of the phenomenon as The Shane Powers' Theory of Game Play. And it amazes me too. Survivor is not a game that very often rewards social shorthand or the supposition that there are no new moves under its sun.

But in Tyson's, Gervase's and Monica's defense, I think that Jeff Probst had more to do with Ciera's thud to what-comes-after-third than did Hayden. A lot more.

And thank you for the kudos. They're nice.

"RE: After The Show ... "
Posted by tribephyl on 12-05-13 at 02:50 AM
I always called it the Alex Bell Maneuver.
Scaring the F4 into going with an alternate F3 has been somewhat of a staple for many seasons. The 'honorable' use it to remain honest, without realizing it's better to be a liar.

Regardless of his Bell maneuver/Powers theory, One thing I am proud of Gervase was for claiming he is stepping up his game and then proceeding to do so.
While Ciera's Last-Stand ended up falling flat.

I do think it's a little sad that Gervase doesn't see that Tyson is besting him in the outwit & outplay departments.
In order for Gervase to win against Tyson, his only chance is to outlast him.



Oh and you should kinda clean up your HTML.
I see a bad closing table data tag, as well as a misspelled center.
Yes, this is code for something.