LAST EDITED ON 12-03-13 AT 11:36 AM (EST)I love the scenario you've laid out and it fits the possible happenings as shown in the previews ... but ... if you've got an alliance of four, why would anyone go through all those theatrics to put yourself at risk of pulling the wrong coloured stone? Just have your four vote together to get one of the two of Hayden/Katie out.
Redemption Island is no guarantee of being able to get back into the game as there's always a challenge you might not be good at. Laura is a pretty formidable RI threat to go up against, so anyone who might be banking on going there and then coming back into the game to enhance one's status in the game is just asking for it.
Occam's Razor tells me that it's more likely that something else happened and someone flipped or threatens to flip, so there's some scrambling to cover their behinds to create this tie scenario.