As noted above, Ragan needs the following votes to save Kristen: himself, Kathy, Britney, and Brendon. The first two are a lock, the third is difficult-but-not-impossible, and the fourth might require you show your PhD in astronomy before warning him about the meteor plummeting towards his head. So for now, that plan is out unless Ragan can get the HoH computer logged on to UoP for some very accelerated cram work.Matt... no, I don't think he's ready to move yet, and Ragan may suspect him of being with the Meows already. Trying to flip Matt incurs the risk of letting the rest of that alliance know what Ragan's up to. Matt may feel a little too protected right now, and he strikes me as the type who wouldn't go along with a power move if he didn't personally create and orchestrate it. Remember, he's a Genius: lesser lights will not be allowed to outshine him, and it's all part of the plan -- right up until it isn't.
Ragan's ideal scenario: get all four votes (which at this point means drugging Brendon and hoping Rachel's drunk enough to sleep through the live episode), throw Hayden out, and then either he or Kristen wins HoH. (Ideally him, because Kristen may not stick to any plan. He wants to manipulate from behind the scenes, but he doesn't have anyone he can really count on to follow his advice.) Nominate any two Meows, put the third one on standby in case the backdoor needs to be opened. With luck, by the end of next week, he's cut their numbers in half. It still makes him a target for reprisal, but there's less of them to attack, and now the numbers are a little closer to being on his side.
Ragan's most likely result: no one listens to him, everyone except Kathy votes for Kristen to leave in the name of not making waves, and then a Meow takes HoH. The alliance puts up Brendon & Rachel due to popular demand. (The backdoor option is a giant question mark here. Kathy's turning into the eternal 'and she could go home' option and they won't risk one of their own. If I'm Ragan, I'm worried about the veto -- really, really worried.) Ragan is personally safe, but he's watching one of his theoretical votes go out the door.
And then we have the Really Unhappy Case: Brendon wins HoH -- the one who doesn't believe there's any alliance of males. Who's Brendon gonna nominate? While one of the answers to that might be 'Who's Rachel mad at this week?', Brendon likes to think of himself as a long-term strategic player. There's no alliances to break up, so Brendon might say 'I wonder who the jury threats are?' just a little too early -- then put up Britney & Ragan, figuring Kathy will never win a competition and can be dealt with at any time. Ragan goes out the door seven days later and Brendon pats himself on the back for five whole minutes 'cause he's so smart.
Ragan needs to make his move now, while there's still any chance of finding the votes to do so. And he tried to -- but ran into Brendon, The Human Roadblock.
It's not the absolute end of Ragan's game, but he can see it from here.