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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-22-09, 06:25 AM (EST) "DWTS#9 Dial Idol Predictions" This sometimes amuses me so I'll do it again this season. I try to use the Dial Idol prediction number kinda like they do the percentage people voted for and then combine that percentage with the percentage of the judges scores. It is only an approximation, do not expect perfect predictions each time. They don't do an even busy signal survey of the voting across the country or across the dancers so sometimes you get small anomalies that make a big difference DWTS Dial Idol Prediction Michael and Anna 58.32 Donny and Kym 33.46 Mark and Lacey 32.39 Aaron and Karina 31.39 Louie and Chelsie 13.64 Chuck and Anna 11.11 Tom and Cheryl 10.1 Ashley and Edyta 4.6 Judges score Aaron and Karina 32 Donny and Kym 30 Mark and Lacey 29 Louie and Chelsie 27 Chuck and Anna 22 Tom and Cheryl 20 Ashley and Edyta 19 Michael and Anna 19 Combined 39.50% Michael and Anna 32.31% Donny and Kym 32.26% Aaron and Karina 31.26% Mark and Lacey 20.63% Louie and Chelsie 16.81% Chuck and Anna 15.28% Tom and Cheryl 11.95% Ashley and Edyta The football guy may have gotten a good boost from the voters so it looks like it is between Tom and Ashley as to who goes home. Hmmmmmm, I coulda guessed that before the show, there's two hours I'll never get back.   Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Week One the Women Snidget 09-23-09 1  Week Two Snidget 09-29-09 2    RE: Week Two vince3 09-29-09 3        RE: Week Two Snidget 09-29-09 4            RE: Week Two CTgirl 09-29-09 5                RE: Week Two Snidget 09-29-09 6  Week Three Snidget 10-06-09 7    Psst vince3 10-06-09 8        RE: Psst Snidget 10-06-09 9            RE: Psst vince3 10-06-09 10                RE: Psst DearAbby 10-06-09 11                    RE: Psst vince3 10-06-09 12  Week Four Snidget 10-13-09 13  Week Five Snidget 10-20-09 14    RE: Week Five qwertypie 10-20-09 15  Week Six Snidget 10-27-09 16    RE: Week Six vince3 10-27-09 17    RE: Week Six qwertypie 10-27-09 18  Week Seven Snidget 11-03-09 19    RE: Week Seven CTgirl 11-03-09 20        RE: Week Seven Loree 11-03-09 21            RE: Week Seven CTgirl 11-03-09 22  Week Eight Snidget 11-10-09 23    RE: Week Eight vince3 11-10-09 24        RE: Week Eight Snidget 11-10-09 25  Week Nine Snidget 11-17-09 26    RE: Week Nine qwertypie 11-17-09 27        RE: Week Nine Sagebrush Dan 11-17-09 28    RE: Week Nine Loree 11-17-09 29        RE: Week Nine SquidProQuo 11-17-09 30  Finale Snidget 11-24-09 31

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-09, 06:19 AM (EST) 1. "Week One the Women" DWTS Score Macy and Jonathan 21.15 Joanna and Derek 16.61 Natalie and Alec 14.89 Melissa and Mark 14.15 Debi and Maksim 13.65 Mya and Dmitry 13.19 Kathy and Tony 9.04 Judges Score Joanna and Derek 34 Mya and Dmitry 31 Kelly and Louis 31 Natalie and Alec 27 Melissa and Mark 24 Debi and Maksim 22 Kathy and Tony 20 Macy and Jonathan 19 Combined Score 31.23% Joanna and Derek 28.09% Macy and Jonathan 26.72% Mya and Dmitry 26.32% Natalie and Alec 24.22% Melissa and Mark 22.90% Kelly and Louis 22.81% Debi and Maksim 17.72% Kathy and Tony   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-09, 08:26 AM (EST) 2. "Week Two" Dial Idol DWTS Score 31.65 Melissa and Mark 28.09 Donny and Kym 21.41 Mark and Lacey 20.63 Chuck and Anna 17.66 Louie and Chelsie 14.13 Kelly and Louis 12.6 Michael and Anna 9.74 Mya and Dmitry 9.18 Aaron and Karina 8.38 Joanna and Derek 7.14 Debi and Maksim 7.14 Natalie and Alec 6.12 Kathy and Tony 6.12 Tom and Cheryl Judges Score 27 Aaron and Karina 27 Mya and Dmitry 25 Donny and Kym 21 Debi and Maksim 21 Mark and Lacey 21 Natalie and Alec 20 Joanna and Derek 20 Michael and Anna 19 Chuck and Anna 19 Kelly and Louis 19 Louie and Chelsie 19 Melissa and Mark 18 Kathy and Tony 18 Tom and Cheryl % of each added together, separated by average +/- Standard Error Most Likely Safe 22.55% Donny and Kym 22.29% Melissa and Mark 17.85% Mark and Lacey 16.78% Chuck and Anna Middle of the Pack 15.29% Louie and Chelsie 14.05% Mya and Dmitry 13.77% Aaron and Karina 13.53% Kelly and Louis Potentially at Risk 13.10% Michael and Anna 10.99% Joanna and Derek 10.71% Debi and Maksim 10.71% Natalie and Alec 9.18% Kathy and Tony 9.18% Tom and Cheryl No real surprises in any of that.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-09, 08:50 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Week Two" Down to a toss-up with the two at the bottom of the barrel yesterday..... this'll be interesting....   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-09, 09:04 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Week Two" You never know how well DI picks up on trends, but of those two I suspect Kathy's at more risk the Tom, but I dunno. Neither of them is likely to last that long so it really doesn't matter much to me which one goes. However, Tom has a bit more entertainment value for me, who knew he'd be the one of that two that could loosen up.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-09, 11:20 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Week Two" He's a politician - that explains the entertainment value!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-09, 11:28 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Week Two" I dunno, I prefer the ones that are willing to make a bit of a fool of themselves and have some fun to the boring or stiff ones that look like they'd rather be waterboarded than dance.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-06-09, 06:27 AM (EST) 7. "Week Three" LAST EDITED ON 10-06-09 AT 09:22 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 10-06-09 AT 06:28 AM (EST) Judges Score 27 Mya and Dmitry 26 Natalie and Alec 23 Joanna and Derek 21 Aaron and Karina 21 Donny and Kym 20 Kelly and Louis 20 Louie and Chelsie 19 Melissa and Mark 18 Mark and Lacey 17 Debi and Maksim 17 Chuck and Anna 15 Tom and Cheryl 14 Michael and Anna DWTS Dial Idol Score 26.3 Kelly and Louis 21.59 Mya and Dmitry 19.98 Aaron and Karina 17.12 Mark and Lacey 16.21 Natalie and Alec 16.02 Joanna and Derek 14.84 Tom and Cheryl 14.84 Michael and Anna 13.14 Melissa and Mark 12.51 Donny and Kym 12.51 Debi and Maksim 8.34 Louie and Chelsie 6.59 Chuck and Anna Combined 21.26% Mya and Dmitry 20.90% Kelly and Louis 18.18% Natalie and Alec 18.13% Aaron and Karina 16.93% Joanna and Derek 15.54% Mark and Lacey 14.39% Donny and Kym 13.93% Melissa and Mark 13.23% Tom and Cheryl 12.85% Michael and Anna 12.84% Debi and Maksim 11.92% Louie and Chelsie 9.88% Chuck and Anna I wish we had more dial idol data (it is really only from a handful of states for DWTS compared to American Idol where it is all but a few states.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-06-09, 09:11 AM (EST) 8. "Psst" Kelly/Louis got a 20 last night, not a 30......   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-06-09, 09:23 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Psst" Fixed.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-06-09, 09:27 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Psst" I hope that it's not Chuck's last night tonight, because he's trying. I was really hoping that Tom's troops wouldn't vote for him this week, a mercy anti-vote, if you will, so he can heel up and not have to withdraw due to his feet breaking on him.......   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

DearAbby 2959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-06-09, 09:34 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Psst" so he can heel up Typo Pun intended?   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-06-09, 10:03 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Psst" Sleepy/sickie posting....... I'm lucky that it was decently coherent.....   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-13-09, 06:05 AM (EST) 13. "Week Four" Dial Idol DWTS Score 59.94 Mya and Dmitry 31.31 Donny and Kym 28.46 Chuck and Anna 14.79 Kelly and Louis 14.31 Mark and Lacey 12.18 Melissa and Mark 10.74 Joanna and Derek 9.92 Natalie and Alec 9.31 Michael and Anna 7.44 Aaron and Karina 6.61 Louie and Chelsie Judges Score 28 Melissa and Mark 28 Mya and Dmitry 26 Joanna and Derek 24 Natalie and Alec 24 Donny and Kym 23 Kelly and Louis 22 Mark and Lacey 18 Aaron and Karina 17 Chuck and Anna 16 Louie and Chelsie 16 Michael and Anna 40.81% Mya and Dmitry 25.19% Donny and Kym 20.91% Chuck and Anna 17.51% Melissa and Mark 16.72% Kelly and Louis 16.07% Mark and Lacey 15.98% Joanna and Derek 14.76% Natalie and Alec 11.15% Michael and Anna 11.07% Aaron and Karina 9.84% Louie and Chelsie Looks like Louie and Chelsie are the most likely ones to leave. Of the bottom four it looks like Chuck and Anna are the most likely saved by the voters.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-20-09, 06:05 AM (EST) 14. "Week Five" Dial Idol DWTS Score 41.81 Mark and Lacey 40.99 Kelly and Louis 26.15 Michael and Anna 25.45 Joanna and Derek 16.88 Donny and Kym 11.16 Mya and Dmitry 9.92 Aaron and Karina 9.50 Melissa and Mark 9.09 Natalie and Alec 9.09 Louie and Chelsie Judges Score 29 Donny and Kym 27 Mya and Dmitry 26 Mark and Lacey 24 Aaron and Karina 24 Joanna and Derek 24 Kelly and Louis 23 Melissa and Mark 22 Louie and Chelsie 22 Natalie and Alec 21 Michael and Anna Combined Percentage 31.64% Mark and Lacey 30.41% Kelly and Louis 22.64% Joanna and Derek 21.75% Michael and Anna 20.42% Donny and Kym 16.74% Mya and Dmitry 14.88% Aaron and Karina 14.25% Melissa and Mark 13.64% Louie and Chelsie 13.64% Natalie and Alec Not that dial idol has been that predictive but looks like none of our bottom four combined is that likely to get a huge voter turnout so any of them could be in danger. Michael who was the very bottom of the judges scores could get enough votes to be safe. Sigs by AgGhoul   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

qwertypie 9721 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-20-09, 06:54 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Week Five" Well, out of the bottom 4 hopefully it will be Louie and Chelsie that go.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-09, 06:08 AM (EST) 16. "Week Six" DialIdol DWTS 36.60 Donny and Kym 32.68 Aaron and Karina 27.35 Joanna and Derek 24.99 Mya and Dmitry 21.61 Kelly and Louis 16.81 Mark and Lacey 13.81 Melissa and Mark 13.50 Louie and Chelsie 12.96 Michael and Anna Judges Score 39 Aaron and Karina 39 Joanna and Derek 33 Mya and Dmitry 32 Mark and Lacey 31 Donny and Kym 25 Kelly and Louis 24 Louie and Chelsie 24 Melissa and Mark 22 Michael and Anna Combined 32.45% Aaron and Karina 31.11% Donny and Kym 29.79% Joanna and Derek 26.13% Mya and Dmitry 21.63% Mark and Lacey 21.13% Kelly and Louis 16.82% Melissa and Mark 16.67% Louie and Chelsie 15.57% Michael and Anna Haunted by Tribe!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-09, 05:30 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Week Six" This might get rid of Michael, one way or the other........ possibly Louie, too.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

qwertypie 9721 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-09, 05:31 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Week Six" Well, if the bottom 3 hold true then it may be that we lose Michael and Louie. The judges don't seem to like them and with Len et. al, getting to chose the second elimination without audience "interference", I predict Louie and Michael get the axe.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-03-09, 07:04 AM (EST) 19. "Week Seven" DialIdol DWTS score 44.73 Donny and Kym 35.97 Michael and Anna 29.27 Mark and Lacey 28.97 Aaron and Karina 23.96 Kelly and Louis 21.22 Joanna and Derek 15.83 Mya and Dmitry Judges Score 55 Joanna and Derek 53 Aaron and Karina 52 Donny and Kym 52 Kelly and Louis 49 Mya and Dmitry 47 Michael and Anna 43 Mark and Lacey Combined percentages 37.19% Donny and Kym 31.38% Michael and Anna 29.59% Aaron and Karina 26.89% Mark and Lacey 26.80% Kelly and Louis 26.28% Joanna and Derek 21.88% Mya and Dmitry   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-03-09, 02:53 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Week Seven" Please, please, please let Joanna and Derek be the bottom couple. I think the judges like them too much for them to be picked to go home and I'm tired of Derek's showboating and her fake lips.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-03-09, 05:51 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Week Seven" I would love to see the judges' reaction if Joanna is against Mya in the dance off.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-03-09, 06:57 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Week Seven" I think they like Joanna more than Mya. Carrie and Len have been hard on her.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-10-09, 07:21 AM (EST) 23. "Week Eight" Dialidol DWTS score 49.10 Joanna and Derek 45.02 Mya and Dmitry 39.43 Donny and Kym 38.59 Kelly and Louis 27.87 Aaron and Karina Judges Score 59 Mya and Dmitry 52 Joanna and Derek 51 Kelly and Louis 50 Aaron and Karina 50 Donny and Kym Combined percentages 45.03% Mya and Dmitry 44.40% Joanna and Derek 38.80% Donny and Kym 38.76% Kelly and Louis 33.02% Aaron and Karina Given Aaron's been in the bottom quite a bit, and it looks like maybe his fan base didn't rally at least where dialidol could measure (he may get more text or computer votes which they don't) this could be his week. Of the five remaining stars he is one of the ones I feel I didn't really get to know, and that doesn't help. I find some of the stage persona a bit too much put on compared to someone like Kelly who always comes off as very genuine.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-10-09, 12:37 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Week Eight" I don't doubt that Aaron is probably in deep trouble tonight..... However, last week's Dial Idol's second highest combined score was automatically eliminated, and 3rd and 4th were in the Dance-Off......... which means that depending on the results in the areas that they can't track, it could be anyone going home, except probably Mya............ it would take practically no home votes to send her home, I think.........   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-10-09, 01:50 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Week Eight" Part of the problem is there isn't that many users, (and who knows how to really translate that to percentage of the vote, I may be using entirely the wrong formula). Usually for American Idol you get users in all but a few states. Looking at the Geopredictions they really only have data for a few states rather than most of them so you could get who did well in one region, but isn't an overall favorite.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-09, 07:04 AM (EST) 26. "Week Nine" Dial Idol Score DWTS 57.28 Mya and Dmitry 51.13 Kelly and Louis 47.55 Donny and Kym 44.04 Joanna and Derek Judges Scores 87 Mya and Dmitry 81 Joanna and Derek 78 Kelly and Louis 74 Donny and Kym Combined % 55.83% Mya and Dmitry 49.94% Kelly and Louis 47.33% Joanna and Derek 46.90% Donny and Kym I also looked at the raw busy signal data and then combined that with the judges score by percentage. DialIdol uses more than just the raw percentage in the mix, but I don't know the exact other things in there althouhg I think when the busies come in is part of it. % Busy 48.62 Mya and Dmitry 40.94 Donny and Kym 33.2 Kelly and Louis 21.85 Joanna and Derek Combined with judges score (I did total the % busy then take the % of that to try to get the % of the vote) 60.81% Mya and Dmitry 51.44% Donny and Kym 47.33% Kelly and Louis 40.42% Joanna and Derek   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

qwertypie 9721 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-09, 10:04 AM (EST) 27. "RE: Week Nine" I am fine if the Ego and his partner goes.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Sagebrush Dan 9824 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-09, 01:35 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Week Nine" Me too.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-09, 02:11 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Week Nine" Votenumber1 is also predicting Joanna is in the most danger tonight.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

SquidProQuo 2281 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 11-17-09, 06:11 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Week Nine" I never realized Kelly has so many fans. I'd much rather she go, but I'm tired of Derek's ego too. P.S. Thanks Snidget for doing this each week -- I enjoy it!!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-24-09, 07:45 AM (EST) 31. "Finale" So, I finally figured out what this DWTS DIAL score is compared to the regular one. They take the regular DI score and do the same exact % of it and % of vote that I've been doing (so for those I've doubled the effect of the judges score. Sometimes the DI score is really low so most everyone looks like a zero so anyway if you wanna know that is how it works. DI score Dial Idol Score 53.71 Kelly and Louis 44.26 Mya and Dmitry 41.43 Donny and Kym Judges Score 87 Mya and Dmitry 85 Donny and Kym 76 Kelly and Louis DWTS DI score 69.17 Kelly and Louis 66.83 Mya and Dmitry 63.99 Donny and Kym Using % Busy instead of DI score Busy % 42.42 Donny and Kym 40.58 Kelly and Louis 30.28 Mya and Dmitry Busy % with Judges Score 71.72% Donny and Kym 66.47% Kelly and Louis 61.81% Mya and Dmitry What it takes to win (Adding in some new judges scores, doing the DWTS DI method with DI score and Judges score %) So Kelly ahead in this anaylsis So if lets say Mya is given another 30 and Donny gets 27 (both reasonable expectations If Kelly scores a 19 or worse then Mya wins Mya and Donny both get 27 If Kelly scores a 16 or worse Mya wins Mya gets a 27 and Donny gets a 30 If Kelly scores a 16 or worse Mya wins Same thing using the % Busies Donny is ahead in this analysis Mya gets a 30 and Kelly gets a 27 If Donny scores 12 or worse Kelly wins Kelly gets a 30 and Mya gets a 27 If Donny scores a 15 or worse then Kelly wins So basically right now it looks like Donny or Kelly wins (depending on which thing shows the real vote total better) unless one or both of them manage to make it through their dance with any sort of ability. I suspect we may get a feel for the vote totals and who the judges want to win (whether they were given the real vote totals or just going on what they think they are based on whatever they think that way). I mean after all they want their favorite to win just like we do.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

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