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Original Message
"DWTS#9 Dial Idol Predictions"
Posted by Snidget on 09-22-09 at 06:25 AM
This sometimes amuses me so I'll do it again this season. I try to use the Dial Idol prediction number kinda like they do the percentage people voted for and then combine that percentage with the percentage of the judges scores.

It is only an approximation, do not expect perfect predictions each time. They don't do an even busy signal survey of the voting across the country or across the dancers so sometimes you get small anomalies that make a big difference

DWTS Dial Idol Prediction

Michael and Anna 58.32
Donny and Kym 33.46
Mark and Lacey 32.39
Aaron and Karina 31.39
Louie and Chelsie 13.64
Chuck and Anna 11.11
Tom and Cheryl 10.1
Ashley and Edyta 4.6

Judges score

Aaron and Karina 32
Donny and Kym 30
Mark and Lacey 29
Louie and Chelsie 27
Chuck and Anna 22
Tom and Cheryl 20
Ashley and Edyta 19
Michael and Anna 19

Combined

39.50% Michael and Anna
32.31% Donny and Kym
32.26% Aaron and Karina
31.26% Mark and Lacey
20.63% Louie and Chelsie
16.81% Chuck and Anna
15.28% Tom and Cheryl
11.95% Ashley and Edyta

The football guy may have gotten a good boost from the voters so it looks like it is between Tom and Ashley as to who goes home. Hmmmmmm, I coulda guessed that before the show, there's two hours I'll never get back.


Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Week One the Women"
Posted by Snidget on 09-23-09 at 06:19 AM
DWTS Score

Macy and Jonathan 21.15
Joanna and Derek 16.61
Natalie and Alec 14.89
Melissa and Mark 14.15
Debi and Maksim 13.65
Mya and Dmitry 13.19
Kathy and Tony 9.04

Judges Score

Joanna and Derek 34
Mya and Dmitry 31
Kelly and Louis 31
Natalie and Alec 27
Melissa and Mark 24
Debi and Maksim 22
Kathy and Tony 20
Macy and Jonathan 19

Combined Score

31.23% Joanna and Derek
28.09% Macy and Jonathan
26.72% Mya and Dmitry
26.32% Natalie and Alec
24.22% Melissa and Mark
22.90% Kelly and Louis
22.81% Debi and Maksim
17.72% Kathy and Tony

"Week Two"
Posted by Snidget on 09-29-09 at 08:26 AM
Dial Idol DWTS Score

31.65 Melissa and Mark
28.09 Donny and Kym
21.41 Mark and Lacey
20.63 Chuck and Anna
17.66 Louie and Chelsie
14.13 Kelly and Louis
12.6 Michael and Anna
9.74 Mya and Dmitry
9.18 Aaron and Karina
8.38 Joanna and Derek
7.14 Debi and Maksim
7.14 Natalie and Alec
6.12 Kathy and Tony
6.12 Tom and Cheryl

Judges Score
27 Aaron and Karina
27 Mya and Dmitry
25 Donny and Kym
21 Debi and Maksim
21 Mark and Lacey
21 Natalie and Alec
20 Joanna and Derek
20 Michael and Anna
19 Chuck and Anna
19 Kelly and Louis
19 Louie and Chelsie
19 Melissa and Mark
18 Kathy and Tony
18 Tom and Cheryl

% of each added together, separated by average +/- Standard Error

Most Likely Safe

22.55% Donny and Kym
22.29% Melissa and Mark
17.85% Mark and Lacey
16.78% Chuck and Anna

Middle of the Pack
15.29% Louie and Chelsie
14.05% Mya and Dmitry
13.77% Aaron and Karina
13.53% Kelly and Louis

Potentially at Risk
13.10% Michael and Anna
10.99% Joanna and Derek
10.71% Debi and Maksim
10.71% Natalie and Alec
9.18% Kathy and Tony
9.18% Tom and Cheryl

No real surprises in any of that.

"RE: Week Two"
Posted by vince3 on 09-29-09 at 08:50 AM
Down to a toss-up with the two at the bottom of the barrel yesterday..... this'll be interesting....
"RE: Week Two"
Posted by Snidget on 09-29-09 at 09:04 AM
You never know how well DI picks up on trends, but of those two I suspect Kathy's at more risk the Tom, but I dunno. Neither of them is likely to last that long so it really doesn't matter much to me which one goes. However, Tom has a bit more entertainment value for me, who knew he'd be the one of that two that could loosen up.
"RE: Week Two"
Posted by CTgirl on 09-29-09 at 11:20 AM
He's a politician - that explains the entertainment value!
"RE: Week Two"
Posted by Snidget on 09-29-09 at 11:28 AM
I dunno, I prefer the ones that are willing to make a bit of a fool of themselves and have some fun to the boring or stiff ones that look like they'd rather be waterboarded than dance.
"Week Three"
Posted by Snidget on 10-06-09 at 06:27 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-06-09 AT 09:22 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 10-06-09 AT 06:28 AM (EST)

Judges Score

27 Mya and Dmitry
26 Natalie and Alec
23 Joanna and Derek
21 Aaron and Karina
21 Donny and Kym
20 Kelly and Louis
20 Louie and Chelsie
19 Melissa and Mark
18 Mark and Lacey
17 Debi and Maksim
17 Chuck and Anna
15 Tom and Cheryl
14 Michael and Anna

DWTS Dial Idol Score

26.3 Kelly and Louis
21.59 Mya and Dmitry
19.98 Aaron and Karina
17.12 Mark and Lacey
16.21 Natalie and Alec
16.02 Joanna and Derek
14.84 Tom and Cheryl
14.84 Michael and Anna
13.14 Melissa and Mark
12.51 Donny and Kym
12.51 Debi and Maksim
8.34 Louie and Chelsie
6.59 Chuck and Anna


Combined

21.26% Mya and Dmitry
20.90% Kelly and Louis
18.18% Natalie and Alec
18.13% Aaron and Karina
16.93% Joanna and Derek
15.54% Mark and Lacey
14.39% Donny and Kym
13.93% Melissa and Mark
13.23% Tom and Cheryl
12.85% Michael and Anna
12.84% Debi and Maksim
11.92% Louie and Chelsie
9.88% Chuck and Anna

I wish we had more dial idol data (it is really only from a handful of states for DWTS compared to American Idol where it is all but a few states.

"Psst"
Posted by vince3 on 10-06-09 at 09:11 AM
Kelly/Louis got a 20 last night, not a 30......
"RE: Psst"
Posted by Snidget on 10-06-09 at 09:23 AM
Fixed.
"RE: Psst"
Posted by vince3 on 10-06-09 at 09:27 AM
I hope that it's not Chuck's last night tonight, because he's trying.

I was really hoping that Tom's troops wouldn't vote for him this week, a mercy anti-vote, if you will, so he can heel up and not have to withdraw due to his feet breaking on him.......

"RE: Psst"
Posted by DearAbby on 10-06-09 at 09:34 AM
so he can heel up

Typo Pun intended?

"RE: Psst"
Posted by vince3 on 10-06-09 at 10:03 AM
Sleepy/sickie posting....... I'm lucky that it was decently coherent.....
"Week Four"
Posted by Snidget on 10-13-09 at 06:05 AM
Dial Idol DWTS Score

59.94 Mya and Dmitry
31.31 Donny and Kym
28.46 Chuck and Anna
14.79 Kelly and Louis
14.31 Mark and Lacey
12.18 Melissa and Mark
10.74 Joanna and Derek
9.92 Natalie and Alec
9.31 Michael and Anna
7.44 Aaron and Karina
6.61 Louie and Chelsie

Judges Score
28 Melissa and Mark
28 Mya and Dmitry
26 Joanna and Derek
24 Natalie and Alec
24 Donny and Kym
23 Kelly and Louis
22 Mark and Lacey
18 Aaron and Karina
17 Chuck and Anna
16 Louie and Chelsie
16 Michael and Anna

40.81% Mya and Dmitry
25.19% Donny and Kym
20.91% Chuck and Anna
17.51% Melissa and Mark
16.72% Kelly and Louis
16.07% Mark and Lacey
15.98% Joanna and Derek
14.76% Natalie and Alec
11.15% Michael and Anna
11.07% Aaron and Karina
9.84% Louie and Chelsie

Looks like Louie and Chelsie are the most likely ones to leave. Of the bottom four it looks like Chuck and Anna are the most likely saved by the voters.

"Week Five"
Posted by Snidget on 10-20-09 at 06:05 AM
Dial Idol DWTS Score

41.81 Mark and Lacey
40.99 Kelly and Louis
26.15 Michael and Anna
25.45 Joanna and Derek
16.88 Donny and Kym
11.16 Mya and Dmitry
9.92 Aaron and Karina
9.50 Melissa and Mark
9.09 Natalie and Alec
9.09 Louie and Chelsie

Judges Score

29 Donny and Kym
27 Mya and Dmitry
26 Mark and Lacey
24 Aaron and Karina
24 Joanna and Derek
24 Kelly and Louis
23 Melissa and Mark
22 Louie and Chelsie
22 Natalie and Alec
21 Michael and Anna


Combined Percentage

31.64% Mark and Lacey
30.41% Kelly and Louis
22.64% Joanna and Derek
21.75% Michael and Anna
20.42% Donny and Kym
16.74% Mya and Dmitry
14.88% Aaron and Karina
14.25% Melissa and Mark
13.64% Louie and Chelsie
13.64% Natalie and Alec

Not that dial idol has been that predictive but looks like none of our bottom four combined is that likely to get a huge voter turnout so any of them could be in danger. Michael who was the very bottom of the judges scores could get enough votes to be safe.


Sigs by AgGhoul

"RE: Week Five"
Posted by qwertypie on 10-20-09 at 06:54 PM
Well, out of the bottom 4 hopefully it will be Louie and Chelsie that go.
"Week Six"
Posted by Snidget on 10-27-09 at 06:08 AM
DialIdol DWTS
36.60 Donny and Kym
32.68 Aaron and Karina
27.35 Joanna and Derek
24.99 Mya and Dmitry
21.61 Kelly and Louis
16.81 Mark and Lacey
13.81 Melissa and Mark
13.50 Louie and Chelsie
12.96 Michael and Anna

Judges Score
39 Aaron and Karina
39 Joanna and Derek
33 Mya and Dmitry
32 Mark and Lacey
31 Donny and Kym
25 Kelly and Louis
24 Louie and Chelsie
24 Melissa and Mark
22 Michael and Anna

Combined
32.45% Aaron and Karina
31.11% Donny and Kym
29.79% Joanna and Derek
26.13% Mya and Dmitry
21.63% Mark and Lacey
21.13% Kelly and Louis
16.82% Melissa and Mark
16.67% Louie and Chelsie
15.57% Michael and Anna


Haunted by Tribe!

"RE: Week Six"
Posted by vince3 on 10-27-09 at 05:30 PM
This might get rid of Michael, one way or the other........ possibly Louie, too.
"RE: Week Six"
Posted by qwertypie on 10-27-09 at 05:31 PM
Well, if the bottom 3 hold true then it may be that we lose Michael and Louie. The judges don't seem to like them and with Len et. al, getting to chose the second elimination without audience "interference", I predict Louie and Michael get the axe.
"Week Seven"
Posted by Snidget on 11-03-09 at 07:04 AM
DialIdol DWTS score

44.73 Donny and Kym
35.97 Michael and Anna
29.27 Mark and Lacey
28.97 Aaron and Karina
23.96 Kelly and Louis
21.22 Joanna and Derek
15.83 Mya and Dmitry


Judges Score

55 Joanna and Derek
53 Aaron and Karina
52 Donny and Kym
52 Kelly and Louis
49 Mya and Dmitry
47 Michael and Anna
43 Mark and Lacey


Combined percentages

37.19% Donny and Kym
31.38% Michael and Anna
29.59% Aaron and Karina
26.89% Mark and Lacey
26.80% Kelly and Louis
26.28% Joanna and Derek
21.88% Mya and Dmitry

"RE: Week Seven"
Posted by CTgirl on 11-03-09 at 02:53 PM
Please, please, please let Joanna and Derek be the bottom couple. I think the judges like them too much for them to be picked to go home and I'm tired of Derek's showboating and her fake lips.

"RE: Week Seven"
Posted by Loree on 11-03-09 at 05:51 PM
I would love to see the judges' reaction if Joanna is against Mya in the dance off.
"RE: Week Seven"
Posted by CTgirl on 11-03-09 at 06:57 PM
I think they like Joanna more than Mya. Carrie and Len have been hard on her.
"Week Eight"
Posted by Snidget on 11-10-09 at 07:21 AM
Dialidol DWTS score
49.10 Joanna and Derek
45.02 Mya and Dmitry
39.43 Donny and Kym
38.59 Kelly and Louis
27.87 Aaron and Karina

Judges Score
59 Mya and Dmitry
52 Joanna and Derek
51 Kelly and Louis
50 Aaron and Karina
50 Donny and Kym

Combined percentages

45.03% Mya and Dmitry
44.40% Joanna and Derek
38.80% Donny and Kym
38.76% Kelly and Louis
33.02% Aaron and Karina


Given Aaron's been in the bottom quite a bit, and it looks like maybe his fan base didn't rally at least where dialidol could measure (he may get more text or computer votes which they don't) this could be his week.

Of the five remaining stars he is one of the ones I feel I didn't really get to know, and that doesn't help. I find some of the stage persona a bit too much put on compared to someone like Kelly who always comes off as very genuine.

"RE: Week Eight"
Posted by vince3 on 11-10-09 at 12:37 PM
I don't doubt that Aaron is probably in deep trouble tonight.....

However, last week's Dial Idol's second highest combined score was automatically eliminated, and 3rd and 4th were in the Dance-Off......... which means that depending on the results in the areas that they can't track, it could be anyone going home, except probably Mya............ it would take practically no home votes to send her home, I think.........

"RE: Week Eight"
Posted by Snidget on 11-10-09 at 01:50 PM
Part of the problem is there isn't that many users, (and who knows how to really translate that to percentage of the vote, I may be using entirely the wrong formula).

Usually for American Idol you get users in all but a few states. Looking at the Geopredictions they really only have data for a few states rather than most of them so you could get who did well in one region, but isn't an overall favorite.

"Week Nine"
Posted by Snidget on 11-17-09 at 07:04 AM
Dial Idol Score DWTS

57.28 Mya and Dmitry
51.13 Kelly and Louis
47.55 Donny and Kym
44.04 Joanna and Derek

Judges Scores

87 Mya and Dmitry
81 Joanna and Derek
78 Kelly and Louis
74 Donny and Kym

Combined %

55.83% Mya and Dmitry
49.94% Kelly and Louis
47.33% Joanna and Derek
46.90% Donny and Kym


I also looked at the raw busy signal data and then combined that with the judges score by percentage. DialIdol uses more than just the raw percentage in the mix, but I don't know the exact other things in there althouhg I think when the busies come in is part of it.

% Busy

48.62 Mya and Dmitry
40.94 Donny and Kym
33.2 Kelly and Louis
21.85 Joanna and Derek

Combined with judges score (I did total the % busy then take the % of that to try to get the % of the vote)

60.81% Mya and Dmitry
51.44% Donny and Kym
47.33% Kelly and Louis
40.42% Joanna and Derek


"RE: Week Nine"
Posted by qwertypie on 11-17-09 at 10:04 AM
I am fine if the Ego and his partner goes.
"RE: Week Nine"
Posted by Sagebrush Dan on 11-17-09 at 01:35 PM
Me too.
"RE: Week Nine"
Posted by Loree on 11-17-09 at 02:11 PM
Votenumber1 is also predicting Joanna is in the most danger tonight.
"RE: Week Nine"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 11-17-09 at 06:11 PM
I never realized Kelly has so many fans. I'd much rather she go, but I'm tired of Derek's ego too.

P.S. Thanks Snidget for doing this each week -- I enjoy it!!

"Finale"
Posted by Snidget on 11-24-09 at 07:45 AM
So, I finally figured out what this DWTS DIAL score is compared to the regular one.

They take the regular DI score and do the same exact % of it and % of vote that I've been doing (so for those I've doubled the effect of the judges score.

Sometimes the DI score is really low so most everyone looks like a zero so anyway if you wanna know that is how it works.

DI score

Dial Idol Score

53.71 Kelly and Louis
44.26 Mya and Dmitry
41.43 Donny and Kym

Judges Score

87 Mya and Dmitry
85 Donny and Kym
76 Kelly and Louis


DWTS DI score

69.17 Kelly and Louis
66.83 Mya and Dmitry
63.99 Donny and Kym


Using % Busy instead of DI score
Busy %
42.42 Donny and Kym
40.58 Kelly and Louis
30.28 Mya and Dmitry

Busy % with Judges Score
71.72% Donny and Kym
66.47% Kelly and Louis
61.81% Mya and Dmitry

What it takes to win (Adding in some new judges scores, doing the DWTS DI method with DI score and Judges score %)

So Kelly ahead in this anaylsis

So if lets say

Mya is given another 30 and Donny gets 27 (both reasonable expectations
If Kelly scores a 19 or worse then Mya wins

Mya and Donny both get 27
If Kelly scores a 16 or worse Mya wins

Mya gets a 27 and Donny gets a 30
If Kelly scores a 16 or worse Mya wins


Same thing using the % Busies

Donny is ahead in this analysis

Mya gets a 30 and Kelly gets a 27
If Donny scores 12 or worse Kelly wins

Kelly gets a 30 and Mya gets a 27
If Donny scores a 15 or worse then Kelly wins

So basically right now it looks like Donny or Kelly wins (depending on which thing shows the real vote total better) unless one or both of them manage to make it through their dance with any sort of ability.

I suspect we may get a feel for the vote totals and who the judges want to win (whether they were given the real vote totals or just going on what they think they are based on whatever they think that way). I mean after all they want their favorite to win just like we do.