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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 02-14-03, 04:49 AM (EST) "Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Last season I noticed a pattern amongst the winners in the first episode. So around the 6th episode I analyzed ep.1 and deduced that Brian would win based on the reasoning below. Can I do it again or was it just coincidence? The winner is edited in episode 1 as positive, not complaining never Dogmatic doesn't show disrespect or insult others doesn't show weakness So I rewatched ep. 1 and once again 15 people all showed a negative shot except for one. Lets start with the women Janet She got sick and said "this is too hard" "I am gonna collapse" Unfortuneatly her weakness was obvious Jeanne: "Our group is downright embarassing" when reffering to getting the fire and shelter going Jenna: complained about having 7 women on her tribe as her "worst nightmare" Dissed christy. "Our tribe is NOT doing well" Joanna: Another VERY quiet person, hard to decipher just like zoe and erin. Something other message boards have noticed and I did to is that she was Repulsed by the "False Idol" Isn't that one of the 10 commandments "do not covet a false idol. It was obvious in the editing that she didn't like that thing. She was SHOWN stressing out about the puzzle. Christy: Got upset and said "my communication shuts down. Was portrayed as weak. Heidi: Dissed Deena, calling her "too bossy". Dissed Christy saying her communication is a big liability. Deena: "Fire was a fiasco" "We were cold wet and miserable". Bossy, complained Shawna: Said she "felt so stupid" that she couldn't untie the rope. Several times she talked down about herself. Daniel: "There is no way they will beat us" "Dave needs to lighten up" Negative attitude and disrespect. Matthew: Dissed women and their ability to build shelter. Disses Roger when voting Rob: Disses women and boasts the whole episode. Dave: He was very positive but he was VERY dogmatic in his speech, although he was right. Roger: "they don't have the strenght" "they aren't half way where we are" Disses women big time and disses ryan and daniel. Butch: the guy was funny and positive, but it is the subtle editing that gives it away. He dissed ryan in his voting confessional "you are still a boy" So the ONE survivor that was positive, never criticized anyone or anything the entire show, the only survivor is Alex. My Ep. 1 Analysis says Alex wins Survivor Amazon "To the other three out there, break a leg.... and I mean it." - Helen Glover Congratulations Alex winner of S6   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... zzz 02-14-03 1    RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... PepeLePew13 02-14-03 6        RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... dabo 02-18-03 19  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... MellowYellow 02-14-03 2    RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... Loree 02-14-03 9        RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... MellowYellow 02-17-03 17            RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... Loree 02-18-03 20  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... Q 02-14-03 3    RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... jkokoj 02-14-03 4  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... katem 02-14-03 5    RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... TeamJoisey 02-16-03 14        RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... tribephyl 02-16-03 15  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... samboohoo 02-14-03 7  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... Brownroach 02-14-03 8  Thanks, IE! bebekid 02-14-03 10  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... steppingrazor42 02-14-03 11  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... tribephyl 02-14-03 12    RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... smrtNsassybnkr 02-14-03 13  RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... evanakm 02-16-03 16    RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh be... bebekid 02-17-03 18  Bump bebekid 03-11-03 21    Butch? ringtheory 03-12-03 22        IT'S ALIVE ivoryElephant 03-27-03 23            RE: IT'S ALIVE SurvivorJoel 03-27-03 24            RE: IT'S ALIVE DeadInTheWater 04-29-03 27  Hey ivoryElephant! bebekid 03-27-03 25    RE: Hey ivoryElephant! Loree 03-28-03 26

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 02-14-03, 09:27 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Nice analysis, as usual. Didn't ChillOne predict Alex and Roger in the final 4? If so, that could bode well for your conclusion (assuming we believe CO).   Top

PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-14-03, 11:12 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" If I remember correctly, the CO spoiler said a male in his late 20's, which was later to be amended to be a male with a "tight" haircut or with his hair parted to the side. This could be Alex, Dave or Matthew. Before the show, I was inclined to believe this could be Matthew due to his hair being parted to the side. Now? It's still too early but it's either Alex or Matthew in the F4. As for Christy... something makes me wonder if she's playing dumb with her self-pity about feeling left out, etc. She knew full well what she was getting into and I'm sure she fully expected this to happen and may be using this as a ploy to develop some bonds to solidify her chances of going far. I'm deaf myself, so I've been where she is .... I think I'll save this analysis and expand on this in another thread later on (when I'm not at work!). "When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-18-03, 00:53 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Note to Pepe: Christy may feel a duty to "represent" for her kind (the deaf) in some way. If so, this can work against her in the game, though she still might go pretty far. It is really a matter of whether she takes her roll as a "representative" very seriously (as Sean did in S4), her own personal character (as yet still an unknown), and individual merit (which, frankly, she hasn't shown anything of as yet). Looking forward to your piece. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

MellowYellow 346 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 02-14-03, 09:34 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Nice analysis. Same trend from previous Survivor shows? Alex came off as a truly likeable contestant.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-14-03, 02:06 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" I remember watching an interview with a woman journalist who was down in the Amazon for the first few days. I think she was from TV Guide. She is the one that was stating Rob was the funny one and Christy was deaf. But she said that Alex (who she thought looked like Jeff P) was giving orders and taking charge which is not a smart thing to do on this show. I kept waiting to see this on the show lastnight. But I never saw him portrayed this way and wondered why they were hiding this side of him if it was true. Could it be to make us like him more since he is the winner? Maybe next week we will see this side of him. But it was odd we were only shown Roger giving orders.   Top

MellowYellow 346 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 02-17-03, 10:02 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" I remember reading a post about that. He seems far from bossy, and Roger seems to have taken the leadership role. In case Roger was to go I can see Dave replacing him in that role over Alex, IMO. Brian in E5 didn't strike me as a leader from day one, butit has to do with editing in part.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-18-03, 10:11 AM (EST) 20. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Brian seemed to be the leader because others ran to him. They almost elected him leader themselves. So it wasn't like he was bossy with them. He made them want to turn to him for help. I think that is the difference with this show. The tribe likes to have a leader they can go to. But that person better not elect themself the leader and start giving orders. It is all about how the person becomes the leader. People Skills.   Top

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 02-14-03, 09:38 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" I'm glad as usual ivory. I always use your Ep. 1 analysis throughout the season. After reading other spoilers, etc. I always go back and filter them through this theory, just in case. Its always good to remember were they started from to see were they end up. Its a great tool. It is astonishing how foolish humans can be in groups, especially when they follow their leaders without question - States: The Bene Gesserit View. All States Are an Abstraction.   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 02-14-03, 10:11 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Good analysis. I thought the same thing about Alex last night. I think he is a pretty neat guy so far. In regard to Christy, I feel sorry for her to a certain extent. While it is difficult, and the way it was edited showed the women leaving her out, I think she could have made some steps and said, I know I have this disability but we can work through it. I hope she connects soon with the right people.   Top

katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 02-14-03, 10:44 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" LAST EDITED ON 02-14-03 AT 10:45 AM (EST) Nice job Ivory. Hope you're right, Alex is my favorite. But, since we are talking about editing of episode one, and MB usually throws a clue, as to who the winner is, in the first ep. Did anyone see anything else, aside from Ivory's analysis? I for one, just observed a couple of things (I mentioned this in the East Coast thread). First, when Jiffy says ".... and will claim the million dollar prize ...." they showed a shot of Shawna. Second, who were the last male and female to leave the fishing boat? Shawna and Matthew. Both of these also fit the CO spoiler. Although, this last one most likely was a major coincidence, but let's not forget that Shawna was VERY popular with the men, they ALL though she was cute and stuff. As for Matt, he was VERY quiet with all the others, very respectful, his only mistake was voting with Ryan and Daniel. So, what did you all see? (c) 2002, 03 GeorgiaBelle Creations, Inc. All rights reserved   Top

TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 02-16-03, 02:11 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Maybe I was dreaming, but... In the beginning, when Jiffy was spieling along about the 16 people blah blah blah, eventually he said there would be one Survivor. Shawna was the face on screen at that moment. And it clicked: She wins. Some may dismiss that as far too blatant for the Evil Master. Wouldn't something that simple, a slap in the face spoiler, really be evil? I mean, who would believe it? Anyway, that was my gut speaking. Of course, we'll overanalyze the whole thing anyway. If Jeff had said, "You guys wait and see, Shawna wins it all," we'd look for the hidden meanings. These reality show contestants need a reality check!   Top

tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-16-03, 03:58 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" LAST EDITED ON 02-16-03 AT 04:32 AM (EST) Team Joisey, you were not dreaming. I also noticed it. There are however two different times and more than two different people. When JP starts his speech, "Sixteen people, from different walks of life, living together...blah, blah, blah..." the screen is flashing through most of the survivors then when he gets to the part where he says"...Only one will remain..." RYAN"S Face is shown. But JP continues"...to claim the million dollar..." as Shawna graces the screen, yet JP isn't finished "...prize!" Now we have Rob's mug. Since Ryan is already gone...it could be Shawna. But it could also be Rob, maybe. Yet there is another speech as JP rattles through the "39 days, 16 contestants, 1 sole survivor" Christy is sitting directly behind him. I think this might be the one you are thinking of. If that is the case, then we should be looking at a Christy win. tribephyl   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-14-03, 12:02 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Great Analysis, Ivory. I also thought the same about Alex. And I'm also leaning toward Christy just because the editing in Ep. 1 is making it look like she will be at too much of a disadvantage to go far. If I'm one of those women right now, I'm doing whatever I can to help Christy -- easy alliance. Regarding who saw what last night, I'm not quite sure what the men were looking at. I think that once they got in the boat, they were so cocky because they had a side view of Heidi and Jenna and thought there were only 6 women on the boat instead of 8.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-14-03, 01:32 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Good observations, IE. And it connects to something else I've been wondering about. It's rumored that Alex and Shawna are dating now (not sure how confirmed this is). Current speculation is that they probably spent time together either at Loser's Lodge or on the jury. But I think the opposite might be true. Alex said last night that he found Shawna hot. Well, if they never had a chance to meet and talk during the game, it's perfectly plausible that he might try to hook up with her when the game was over. So one may be gone pre-merge and the other make the jury and get pretty far, maybe even F2. Based only on what we saw in Ep 1, I'd bet on Alex being the one who lasts longer (and Snewser thinks that Shawna does not get very far in the game). And Jiffy said this about Alex: ``He's been 11 years in recovery, and he's a triathlete, which I think is the epitome of clean living. He's had a lot of life experiences, and he had a level head throughout the `Survivor' experience.''   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 02-14-03, 02:47 PM (EST) 10. "Thanks, IE!" I thought about your episode 1 analysis last night as I was watching the show. Thanks for posting it so quickly! We will know in 13 weeks if it is correct. You know you will have to do this for us every season as long as the show is on, right?   Top

steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 02-14-03, 03:02 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Thank you so much for doing this again this season, I really believe there is something to this theory!!! Alex did come off a stand up guy. I remembered your ideas on this theory from last season and was trying hard to figure out who said the most negative things and who didn't. I want a woman to win this one to keep the pattern going. I thought Jeanne was shown in a pretty positive light, she thought the tribe was weak, but I thought that comment was showing her a strong alpha female, not as a b!tchy complainer. This season should be interesting, but I hope there are alot of twists and that the women don't get Pagonged at the merge. peace out   Top

tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-14-03, 06:09 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Well done IE, tottally agree. It helps that Alex was on my F4 list already. I am, however, inclined to also think that Christy, Shawna and Butch or Dave may be included in the F4 because of their symbolism at the moment. No one can argue with the facts, that somehow, both Butch and Dave, escaped the harshness of their tribemates even after voicing an opinion. Not like Ryan or Roger. This ability to speak positively (yet abrasively) may help them keep fellow T-mates from ousting them at first and would/could also be used as a reason to keep them around for later. Plus they seem to be close with Alex. My thought is they are the last 3 men standing. Christy is already being set-up as the loner. I guarantee this will change. She will get her much needed alliance, an alliance that will most likely carry her towards the endgame. Shawna was a little hard on herself. And although that doesn't fit the "pride cometh...", it seems that she also is being set-up to do much better than she thinks she can do. If Shawna is the one who asks Christy for the alliance...then they will make F4 as well. IMO tribephyl   Top

smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 02-14-03, 07:36 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" I heard that Shawna and Alex were dating post game, but contrary to previous posts, I think the romance started in the Amazon. All the way to the final 2, which I think will be Alex & Shawna. (Personally, I am hoping Shawna will win). I also read that this was the first romantic relationsip Survivor has spawned. (Surprising !)   Top

evanakm 250 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 02-16-03, 07:36 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Good job with the analysis, I'm just a casual visitor to the spoiler board, so I am amazed by how much you hard core spoilers can figure out. This is why I feel a little guilty about punching a hole in theories, but the problem with your analysis is that it doesn't really remain consistant throughout all the seasons. Even though Vecepia was only shown talking 3 or 4 times in the entire season, one of those comments was in episode 1 about Sarah having a nice body because she payed a lot for it.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 02-17-03, 11:47 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon" Hi evanakm! Just wanted to give you a link to IvoryElephant's analysis of the first episode of Thailand. He discusses Vee and the other previous winners: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3176.shtml I don't know if Vee's comment about Sarah could be taken as negative, just fact!   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 03-11-03, 03:00 PM (EST) 21. "Bump" IvoryElephant, I think this analysis is fabulous. Maybe we can tweak it a little since the spoilers are strong for an Alex pre-jury boot. As far as how MB portrays his contestants by editing, it's dead on and a very useful tool. -thinks IE rocks!   Top

ringtheory 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-12-03, 04:46 AM (EST) 22. "Butch?" If Alex does go soon, as it looks like he will, what about Butch as a winner using this analysis? He didn't disrespect Ryan, just told him he was nice, but still too immature. Butch came across very polite, IMO.   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 03-27-03, 00:06 AM (EST) 23. "IT'S ALIVE" Woo hoo! Just wanted to bump this from page 4 so it doesn't get lost. I stand by my original prediction   Top

SurvivorJoel 73 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-27-03, 09:53 AM (EST) 24. "RE: IT'S ALIVE" The whole time everyone here was guessing it was Alex's turn to get the boot, I was sort of disappointed, but had this doubt as to whether it will really happen! I'm with you as far as saying that Alex is in the final 2!   Top

DeadInTheWater 51 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-29-03, 00:48 AM (EST) 27. "RE: IT'S ALIVE" So.....You still standing by your prediction there? Oh well.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 03-27-03, 05:59 PM (EST) 25. "Hey ivoryElephant!" Check out TDT's current episode 8 analysis: http://www.truedorktimes.com/s6/spoilers/ "Pride cometh before a fall, especially in Survivor." Woo Hoo, iE! It's a sign! It's a sign!   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-28-03, 01:44 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Hey ivoryElephant!" I have to say that I agree that Dave would almost be too obvious a boot this week. That is the one reason I don't think he goes next. It was practically pushed in our faces this week that Dave should go and then Roger until they got upset with Roger. So Roger first and Dave would go next. But we only heard Rob and Deena saying this. I don't remember the rest of them getting together and all saying they wanted to get rid of Dave. Personally with Dave so out of the loop is he really the most dangerous one to keep around? I don't think so. I would get rid of the ones doing the most plotting with influence over others. Right now Dave has no power so he really isn't that dangerous. Plus Jenna and Heidi like the idea of keeping the young guys they think they can manipulate.   Top

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