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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-16-02, 09:21 PM (EST) "Kathy - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" Kathy - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread This is the official thread for discussing all final spoilers and speculation regarding this contestant. With such a short time to the final episode, it is crucial that all spoiling discussion be well focused and strictly organized. A (State of the Spoiling) SOTS thread will be generated that will link to and summarize the posts that are generated on this thread along with the discussion that develops on the other Official discussion threads. Remember... there are only three days... organization will be all important.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Kathy is still the key. Lancerdude74 05-17-02 1    probability cutie 05-17-02 2    RE: Kathy is still the key. Fast Eddie 05-17-02 4        RE: Kathy is still the key. ShowMeTheWinner 05-19-02 31    Kathy is vulnerable by voting with ... PagongRatEater 05-17-02 9        RE: Kathy is vulnerable by voting w... Lancerdude74 05-17-02 13        RE: Kathy is vulnerable by voting w... idiotcowboy 05-17-02 20  RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode... I_AM_HE 05-17-02 3    RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode... LithLady 05-17-02 5  39 Days Without a Mirror Bebo 05-17-02 6    RE: 39 Days Without a Mirror katem 05-17-02 14  RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode... Q 05-17-02 7  Something Kathy said at TC..... steppingrazor42 05-17-02 8  RE: Kathy - I hope she didn't screw... toddE 05-17-02 10    RE: Kathy - I hope she didn't screw... Q 05-17-02 11        RE: Kathy - I hope she didn't screw... JohnMc 05-17-02 18  final four picture on cbs.com MessyHair 05-17-02 12    RE: final four picture on cbs.com ConningOfficer 05-17-02 15    RE: final four picture on cbs.com ivoryElephant 05-17-02 16  Sean's Afternoon Chat Kokoro 05-17-02 17    RE: Sean's Afternoon Chat idiotcowboy 05-17-02 19  RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode... asheilah 05-17-02 21  KATHY is the odds on favorite IMHO Napalm in the Morning 05-18-02 22    RE: KATHY is the odds on favorite I... Spidey 05-18-02 23        RE: KATHY is the odds on favorite I... Napalm in the Morning 05-18-02 24  KATHY'S WEB SITE GAFFE Napalm in the Morning 05-18-02 25    RE: KATHY'S WEB SITE GAFFE War on Jeff 05-18-02 26        RE: KATHY'S WEB SITE GAFFE Tresnew 05-18-02 27    another site change...CBS drich61 05-18-02 30  RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode... Teddy_Bear 05-18-02 28    I agree annmurphyvt 05-18-02 29        SeeBS Website...kathy only one smil... IceCat 05-19-02 32  Kathy "solo" editing... DarkLotus 05-19-02 33

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Lancerdude74 165 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 01:58 AM (EST) 1. "Kathy is still the key." I really believe that Kathy will still have a major outcome in how the end of this game is going to progress. Let's look at the possible outcomes of the Final 4 immunity challenge (which will probably be "Fallen Comrades" and see what could happen: 1) Kathy wins immunity: - N/P vote for Vee - Vee votes Neleh (or Paschal) - Kathy: could go either way. She has talked on occasion about how Paschal would respect her for playing the game if she had to vote against him or Neleh. She knows if she votes for Vee, then she *has* to win the final immunity or she doesn't stand a chance. If she votes N (or P) then she could possibly be in the final 3 with V and N or P. This would give her two opportunities of making the final 2 (or 3, depending on how the leftover P or N feels). Even if Vee loses the tiebreaker, there is no harm done to Kathy as she would have to win the final immunity anyway. 2) Vee wins Immunity: - N/P vote for Kathy - Kathy votes for N (or P) - Vee: faced with the same dilemma as Kathy, but I think she would definitely side with Kathy, and thus force Kathy to take her into the final two with her for saving her. She knows P and N would vote her out in a second. Even if Kathy loses the tiebreaker, Vee's position does not change, as she still has to win F3 IC to get to final 2. 3) P or N win immunity: - P/N vote Vee (loyalty to Kathy) - Vee votes N (or P, depending on who has immunity) - Kathy: same dilemma as 1) My take on this situation is that neither Kathy nor Vee hurt their chances by joining up and Vee definitely increases hers. P or N (whoever goes to the jury) may feel slightly betrayed by Kathy, but their (P/N) alliance was made public so they know that Kathy would be doing the only thing she could to increase her chances of winning the game. I don't think they would hold this against her. Looking at it this way, I think that K/V take out Paschal next, as he would be the hardest person to beat in the finals and would have the most respect for them for playing the game. I truly believe that Kathy will win an endurance challenge of any kind and would then take Vee with her to the final two. I think that Kathy easily beats Vee in the final vote and wins the million, and I don't think she *has* to get immunity to do it.   Top

cutie 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 05-17-02, 03:20 AM (EST) 2. "probability" LAST EDITED ON 05-17-02 AT 04:15 AM (EST) i think kathy would not risk to side with vee at this point of the game, since kathy would not trust vee enough (vee may turn to n/p and tell them kathy's plan), and by any chance if it succeeds and she goes to f2 with vee, she will lost 3 votes with s/n/p. also, robert's chat about kathy's loyalty leads me to believe she wont betray them. i have done some probability for fun, and m a little bit shocked by my results. here is the probability that each of them could go to f2 neleh/pascal: 81.24% kathy: 27.77% vee: 9.71% this is based on the assumptions that k would vote with n/p if vee does not win immunity, and n/p would not vote against each other, and that they have equal chances in the challenges. i think the first two assumptions are quite valid, and the fallen comrades may pose equal chances for them, but if the final ic is endurance, k may have a better chance while p may have no chance, based on his performance today.   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-17-02, 09:25 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Kathy is still the key." You've summed it up exactly as I see it, but I do have a couple of additional thoughts. 1. As cutie points out, there is an element of risk for Kathy in voting with Vee. In this world, risk and reward go hand in hand. Few people win anything by playing it safe. Is Kathy a risk taker? We'll see. She could try to minimize the risk by making the deal in a whisper on the way to TC. Or she could make a private deal, then blatantly deny everything if V tells. 2. Kathy might remember her previous experience in a foursome. She and Gina cancelled each other and let P&N pick whom to expel. K&G should have united to force a tie and at least get a 50% chance instead of being powerless. If she realizes she got lucky back then, she might not repeat the mistake.   Top

ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 05-19-02, 05:45 AM (EST) 31. "RE: Kathy is still the key." K&G should have united to force a tie and at least get a 50% chance instead of being powerless I think Kathy made the right decision by not aligning with Gina then. Even though she was not 100% sure of the outcome, I think she was pretty positive that P/N would still choose her over Gina. At that time Kathy wasn't sure about what was going on back at Rotu. I think at that time they were still hoping to reunite with the original Rotus to make the merge and Kathy would be alienated by the original Rotus if she was with Gina (or even without Gina for that matter, because whoever's left of P/N would feel betrayed by her). Furthermore, if she had voted with Gina, we would more likely than not have the Rotu 4 in the finals now as the Rotu 4 will have their solid 5th/6th person in their alliance (whoever's left of P/N). Whoever's left of P/N would surely not trust Kathy who had back-stabbed them previously and will never rejoin back with Back-stabbing Kathy and Lazy Sean and Vee. Kathy's in a different position now. She's jockeying for the finals and she wants her best to get to the final two and it may be difficult if she's outnumbered 2 to 1. If she forges a new alliance with Vee now and her alliance emerges as the winning alliance in final 4, she'd have a 66% chance of being in the final two-- either by her or her partner, Vee, winning the Final 3 IC. This doubles up her chances from 33% of winning the Final 3 IC. I hope Kathy'll pull this off but I got a bad feeling that it's gonna be Vee and Neleh in the finals   Top

PagongRatEater 12996 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-17-02, 11:48 AM (EST) 9. "Kathy is vulnerable by voting with Vee" What if Kathy does decide to throw her lot in with Vee. There are two wold cards there that make this an undesireable and risky choice. 1) Vee goes behind Kathy's back and they vote KATHY off 2) A tie vote happens and Kathy risks the still unknown "consequences" of a tie - which means risking getting voted off. That being said she still doesn't guarantee herself a spot in the final two. She would still HAVE to win immunity to get there, because Vee can't be trusted and P or N could win immunity and choose to go to the final with Vee and the less challenging opponent. The only really scary scenario has to be if Vee wins immunity. Then this game gets REALLY interesting.   Top

Lancerdude74 165 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 02:00 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Kathy is vulnerable by voting with Vee" >1) Vee goes behind Kathy's back >and they vote KATHY off I think this would be very dumb of Vee (not that people haven't been dumb before on this show) because it would decrease her chances of getting to the Final 2 as well. >2) A tie vote happens and >Kathy risks the still unknown >"consequences" of a tie - >which means risking getting voted >off. If it's a tie vote and Kathy doesn't have immunity, she would get voted off anyway. If Kathy does have immunity then there's no way she would be voted out at F4, it would be Vee. Kathy would still have to win immunity in the F3 anyway, so it doesn't change much for her. >That being said she still doesn't >guarantee herself a spot in >the final two. She >would still HAVE to win >immunity to get there, because >Vee can't be trusted and >P or N could win >immunity and choose to go >to the final with Vee >and the less challenging opponent. I think that Kathy definitely has more of a chance to make the final 2 with Vee in there instead of P or N. With P and N, she HAS to win immunity, while with only one of them, there is a good chance Vee would take Kathy with her.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 05-17-02, 05:32 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Kathy is vulnerable by voting with Vee" > The only really scary scenario has to be if Vee wins immunity. This is really no different than Kathy winning IC. Except Kathy is the one to go then. There is no reason for Vee to risk a tie vote anymore than Kathy should. Either one of them must win the IC at the Final 3 in order to move on, and that should be clear. A tie just doesnt make sense especially when the target is your biggest IC challenge for the next IC anyway. Get rid of the competition and take your chances. -ICB   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-17-02, 03:35 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" LAST EDITED ON 05-17-02 AT 03:53 AM (EST) Two things I have come up with in the past week or so that to me point to Kathy winning (or making it at least to F3 in the first) #1 The next IC should be Fallen Comrades. Gabe complained in the first 2 episodes about Kathy not getting to know them. I think the editing to show this clearly points to a Kathy IC win at F4 #2 Robert in a radio interview said others were stung by sea urchins, and that Kathy also gae the pee treatment. However, the editing only showed Kathy doing the deed. Perhaps because once is enough to see someone pee on national television, but I think the editing to show Kathy's "contribution" and not Tammy points to her winning edit: #3, Kathy's "I didn't come here to be the blond bitchy type" quote from Ep 1 (or 2?) Again, editing to the max! (what a ridiculous sounding statement! )   Top

LithLady 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 10:04 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" Poor Kathy! Last night Sean did more than write finis to his own time on the island. It was obvious to me that Kathy was going to go for the deal. She looked interested and she was sitting right behind him and kept touching his shoulder. She was trying to settle him down so that she could take the deal and still keep those all important jury votes. It would have been the smart move. If Sean could have shut his mouth . . . By going on and on with his "eruption", he made it impossible for Kathy to go with him without losing jury votes. This caused Sean to be booted and puts Kathy in a nearly impossible situation. I cannot see how she can win unless she wins both the final immunities. If Vee wins immunity - Kathy will be the target of N & P If N or P win immunity they will probably target Vee next but maybe not. They may go after Kathy as the immunity threat. Either way, if N & P go to the final 3 together and Kathy doesn't win immunity, they will go to the final 2 for sure. Gabe said that Kathy wasn't getting to know the others. Did she change much after that? Yes, she did, but was it enough. Maybe. I think Kathy will be a shoe-in for the endurance but Fallen Comrades could go to anyone. Kathy needs to go to Vee and go for the tie vote. It doesn't have a fantastic chance of succeeding but it's her only play. I can hardly wait for Sunday - bring it on!   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-17-02, 11:10 AM (EST) 6. "39 Days Without a Mirror" We've already discussed this spoiler, but wanted to make sure some mention was made on this summary page. Day 38 - Final 4 TC. If Kathy were voted out at this one, then she'd have a chance to see a mirror. Highly suggestive that she survives the next vote and is in the final three. Rude snot fluent in Sarcastic...and those are my good points. 'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!   Top

katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-17-02, 02:01 PM (EST) 14. "RE: 39 Days Without a Mirror" >Day 38 - Final 4 TC. > If Kathy were voted >out at this one, then >she'd have a chance to >see a mirror. Just to be clear on time, Day 37 is final 4 TC. Day 38 in final 3 TC. Day 39 is the grand finale. >Highly suggestive that she survives the >next vote and is in >the final three. I hope you are right Ms. Bebo, I would just hate it if Pappy or Neleh would win this game, just hate it.   Top

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 11:11 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" Posted this in the vidcap section, but think it is relevant here as well. In the end of the show when Jeff says something like... the only way to be sure you will be in the F2 is to win the next two immunities. This sounds to me (after listening to it over and over) to be a voice over done after the actual tribal council was over (and probably in the USA). His voice is different, not as horse, etc. Could he be telling us someone does win the next two immunities (Kathy?? I hope) Also in the slingshot challenge, Kathy says The Chicks are in the finals, then K and V do the chick dance, etc. Could this be a clue that the chicks do make it to the finals? Vee could win immunity and Pap goes out, or more likely in my opinion, Kathy does win all the next immunities, and this last minute deal is with Vee to break up N/P. This would put the chicks in the finals and all on the same footing (i.e. no pairs are left). Then the friendships the jury talks about is P with N, S with V, Kathy with Zoe??? The betrayals would be Neleh against the Rotu 4, and V against the Rotu 4 and against Sean (Rob M.). Also Kathy against Sean, etc. What do you guys think. This is probably more speculation, but I do think Jeff's comments are added much later and point to an immunity sweep to the end, and the chicks in the finals remark could point to that happening. This would also make sense with Gina's comments about making it to the F4 if she lasted one more week (N/P/K/G). All she says is the F4, not the F3 or F2. Later guys, and isnt this just turning out great! That last TC was so cool. Could you imagine what the jury was thinking? D.R.   Top

steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-17-02, 11:43 AM (EST) 8. "Something Kathy said at TC....." I thouhgt it was interesting that Kathy acted surprised that no one came to her after winning the IC to make a deal about handing over immunity. She said something to the effect of "if anyone was really playing this game" they would have tried something. I wonder if Vee picked up on this, maybe if Kathy wins again she'll strike up a deal with her, or visa versa. I know alot of people think Kathy will stick with N/P to the end but I think she's stupid to do this, I just think it's better to break them up. IF Vee and Kathy make a deal in the F3 promising if either one of them win they bring eachother to the F2 , that's alot better odds than knowing it's a do or die in the final IC with N/P. Just IMHO.   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 12:16 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Kathy - I hope she didn't screw up bad " I fear Kathy may have screwed herself by voting out Sean. I still can't figure out why she did that, and they didn't show any of her voting comments. It seems like going with Sean would have ensured her victory. Kathy would obviously win in F2 against him, and he would have lived up to his word and kept her over Vee, booting Pappy 4th and Vee 3rd. The only thing I can figure is that she didn't know how to vote due to lack of prior discussion. I really expected Vee to vote against Sean last night, and was surprised to see that they could have taken down Neleh. So, I think she must have voted Sean because he was the bigger immunity threat. I think this was a big mistake on her part, and will possibly/probably cost her the game.   Top

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 12:25 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Kathy - I hope she didn't screw up bad " I don't think this is the case. She was probably going to vote with Sean, but his going on and on and on and on, turned her off! How could she side with him in front of the jury after that outburst. They would all be sooooo mad at her for not taking that ungrateful loudmouth, race-card playing, lazy guy who won a car out! They all wore black as a sign of both solidarity (they are one vote? and will decide the winner hands down) and as to show they are their executioners. Simply waiting to drop the ax. She knows and has known as the swing vote, it is win the rest of immunities (and I think she will, see my comments about Jeffs comment) or be voted out. Or turn on N/P and go with V. This strategy has ??? question marks on it due to the jury members, but winning is a sure bet, if she can do it. Or she thinks the Rotu 4 on the jury will pick her because she never broke a word with them, and could care less what the rest of them think or vote. You have those four and you win. I also hope she wins and has not made a mistake, but after that tribal council I could only agree with her choice. Too much was going on. Vote out the DRAMA! D.R.   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 04:43 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Kathy - I hope she didn't screw up bad " <<How could she side with him in front of the jury after that outburst.>> Exactly, Q. I don't agree that she was going to vote with him until the outburst, but he definitely dug his own grave when he went on his tirade. Besides, this was her best decision. Had she betrayed P/N, then she would have betrayed Rotu and lost all of the Rotu votes. As for the black of the jury, I thought that was powerful on the part of the jury. They definitely signaled their solidarity. And they symbolized that they are the executioners. Could they also have been telling K/N/P to vote for either Sean or Vee???   Top

MessyHair 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 01:55 PM (EST) 12. "final four picture on cbs.com" I've been a lurker for a long time and this is my first post, so here goes nothing. I was up on www.cbs.com and they have the final four picture posted on the main page. If you look closely you will notice that all the expressions are realy stoic except for Cathy's. She looks like she just swallowed the canary. Could this be forshadowing? Misdirection? Or just nothing? I'm not sure, but since I am a huge Cathy fan I'm really hoping it's foreshadowing.   Top

ConningOfficer 585 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-17-02, 02:55 PM (EST) 15. "RE: final four picture on cbs.com" Don't ever, ever, EVER believe anything on See-BS's web site. The spoiler board on SB works through independent verifications, not the eyeball's manipulation to increase ratings. Recommend you check out some of the other threads, especially Bungler's vidcaps thread for quality analysis that has nothing to do with fan-dom or corporate sponsors or focus groups.   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 05-17-02, 02:56 PM (EST) 16. "RE: final four picture on cbs.com" I wan't the final show to be a surprise and to be exciting so I will not be back on these boards until after the show, thus I will lay it all on the table right now. After John was booted I layed down a theory as best I could in this thread http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2658&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0 I further stated that Kathy was the main focus throughout the show. And how she has "flipped" her strategy from bad to good. If kathy makes the final 2 I have no doubt that she will win. She is the ULTIMATE UNDERDOG. No alliances and she started off poorly. She has been edited in a way that people will begin to root for her, yet have some doubt in the back of their minds. See ya after the show. Hail Kathy! the Sole survivor!   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 05-17-02, 04:15 PM (EST) 17. "Sean's Afternoon Chat" Question: Sean, I personally viewed Kathy's choice as being non-race related. Do you think people were actually playing "race cards?" Sean: Well, I pose this question to you: Do you think Kathy's chances of winning are better with me and Vee in the finals with her or Paschal and Neleh who are definetly not voting eachother out? ----------------------------------- Now let us never speak of S3 again.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 05-17-02, 05:24 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Sean's Afternoon Chat" Sounds like a Kathy-Vee matchup in the F2 isn't going to happen (not that it was all that likely anyway). -ICB   Top

asheilah 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-17-02, 09:18 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" Been lurking here since the start of S4 for the sole purpose of gathering information and possible spoilers for use in a fun pool that I'm in. Have gathered much useful and insightful information - thank you - but have never posted anything - so if this is in the wrong spot I appologize in advance. Maybe this is a completely stupid question, or possibly answered somewhere else already as I have not read all of the threads yet, but it seems to be a common opinion that if Kathy wins the F4 immunity then Vee is the boot and vice versa. Why is that an assumption? I understand that P/N will not vote for each other, but then couldn't V/K team up and vote together, no matter which one of them wins immunity, and at the very least cause a tie vote. Everyone keeps saying "why would they do that when all they can get is a tie". What I don't understand, is if were you, and you DIDN'T win immunity, wouldn't you take even the possibility of a tie vote over being odd man out without the aliance and being voted off? Especially seeing as no one has any idea how a tie is handled - and if you already don't have immunity - can however it is handled be much worse?   Top

Napalm in the Morning 50 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 05-18-02, 01:33 PM (EST) 22. "KATHY is the odds on favorite IMHO" I will try not to rehash too much of my thoughts on VEE, NELEH, or PASCHAL, but allow me to state why I believe KATHY will win it all (despite the SNEWSER prediction). Obviously, if Kathy wins the next two IC's, she will be F2. So, how would she do if she does not* win either of the next two IC's. F4 IC If VEE wins IC, Kathy is gone. Vee knows N/P will not vote each other. Therefore, N/P will have to vote Kathy. If Vee does not vote Kathy, their MIGHT be a tie. For those who have assumed an automatic tie - you are wrong. Kathy and Vee could vote for two different people. Regardless, even if there is a tie, that would not give Vee any assurance of making it to F3. Therefore, Vee would "guarantee" herself F3 by voting Kathy. If either N/P wins IC, Vee is gone. Either of them would have to chose between Vee or Kathy. Both N/P have shown time and time again they vote for who is more "deserving" with "honesty" and "integrity". Even before Ep12 TC, I believe N/P would have gone with Kathy over Vee, but Vee truly sealed her fate when she said she would "fall in line" with Sean's plan to not vote Kathy (e.g. take out either N/P) at the last TC. F3 IC (assuming Kathy is in) If VEE wins IC, Kathy is gone. VEE would have to view Kathy as the bigger jury vote threat compared to N or P, and (obviously) N or P would have to vote Kathy. If N/P are both in F3 and either win IC, Kathy is gone. N/P won't vote for each other. If either N/P are in F2 and win IC, Vee is gone. Same reasons as F4. SUMMARY: The only way Kathy does not make F2 is if Vee wins F4 IC, AND Kathy does not win F3 IC. However, I believe Kathy makes it to F2. * If the speculation that IC's are "Fallen Comrades" (answering questions about tribemates voted off) and "Endurance", I believe Kathy would be a favorite for both: 1.) She seemed to interact with the most tribemates during the game. For example, she more or less interacted with EVERYONE in the original Rotu by directing them around and getting (almost too) involved early on. She bonded tight with Gina, and learned what little there needs to be known about Sarah when they switched tribes. She had the pizza/beer bond with Robfather. She had some intense conversations with Zoe. Later on T/R/J each had significant interactions with her. 2.) Kathy seems to be the strongest threat right now in an endurance challenge. In addition, I believe Kathy makes it to F2 based on what I believe is one of the best spoilers we have seen all year: the KATHY web site gaffe. If Kathy makes it to F2, I believe she would receive more jury votes than VEE, NELEH, or PASCHAL. Therefore, IMHO, Kathy is the winner. Only other scenarios: VEE wins it all if she wins both IC's. (Could SNEWSER be right?) If N/P make F2, Rotu4 will play judge, jury and executioner on (Judge) Pappy, and Neleh wins it all.   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-18-02, 01:44 PM (EST) 23. "RE: KATHY is the odds on favorite IMHO" >If VEE wins IC, Kathy is >gone. Regardless, >even if there is a >tie, that would not give >Vee any assurance of making >it to F3. Therefore, >Vee would "guarantee" herself F3 >by voting Kathy. Napalm, How does this make any sense? If Vee has IN and doesn't give it away, isn't she already guaranteed F3? Why does she need to vote K out? No matter who wins IC, K/V voting together gives them a 50/50 chance at both going to F3, and from there a 66% chance of both making F2 (if wither wins F3 IC, they pick their F2 opponent.) Are you speculating that if a tie happens at F4, IN is irrelevant? That is the only way your comment makes sense. Where is your logic for this? Or, even if just a hunch or assumption, please say so, because otherwise it just doesn't make any sense.   Top

Napalm in the Morning 50 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 05-18-02, 02:12 PM (EST) 24. "RE: KATHY is the odds on favorite IMHO" LAST EDITED ON 05-18-02 AT 02:35 PM (EST) >Are you speculating that if a >tie happens at F4, IN >is irrelevant? That is >the only way your comment >makes sense. Where is >your logic for this? >Or, even if just a >hunch or assumption, please say >so, because otherwise it just >doesn't make any sense. That's a good point. I guess I assumed the IN may not be relevant in a tie vote, and the tie-breaker would somehow involve all four. However, it makes much more sense the tie-breaker would only apply to the two people who received votes. That being the case, it would make sense for the IN winner to vote who they believe is the biggest IC or jury threat regardless of any possible tie. As stated previously, a believe a F4 TC tie vote is only possible if Vee or Kathy win. If Vee wins, the tie would most likely be between KATHY (with votes from N/P) and PAPPY (with votes from K/V). If Kathy wins, the tie would most likely be between VEE (with votes from N/P) and PAPPY (with votes from K/V). I'm assuming both Vee and Kathy would view Neleh as less of a threat. More importantly, it assumes Kathy would vote for Pappy. IMHO she will not. Kathy has proved time and time again that she votes with her heart more than her head. I draw this conclusion by the following: Ep12 SEAN - IMO she came to into account N/P loyalty to her, and felt Sean was less deserving. Ep11 ROBERT - when she had a real chance to make a move on N/P. Once again, IMO she saw N/P as more deserving. Ep7 ROBFATHER - This is the ONLY time she did NOT vote the same as N/P, and that was mainly due to the promise she made to Robfather during beer and pizza. IMHO, as much as EPMB has shown us Kathy thinking about splitting N/P, she will stay loyal to them, and let the "best" man win. HOWEVER, if Vee wins IC, Kathy may have no choice but to make a deal to save herself. Needless to say, it will all come down to who wins F4 IC. Edited to add: I believe KATHY wins F4 IC.   Top

Napalm in the Morning 50 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 05-18-02, 03:40 PM (EST) 25. "KATHY'S WEB SITE GAFFE" As much as IMHO this might be worthy of a new topic, I will avoid ticking off SB and hope that enough will respond with strong speculation regarding Kathy O'Brien's web site. The original thread is HERE. It shows that Kathy, in reflecting on her Survivor experience, originally stated "For 39 days I never saw myself in a mirror." Within hours of the statment being discussed in spoiler boards, the sentence was changed to "On the island, I never saw myself in a mirror." It was speculated that Kathy was using a figure of speach when she said "For 39 days." If she actually did mean it as a figure of speach, why then would they change the web site? In addition, it was stated that the production of this FLASH type web site is very expensive, and even making a small change would be costly. Why would they spend so much on making a simple change if it were not of some importance? Finally, (I hoping someone can verify) the calendar of events: Day 37 = F4 TC Day 38 = F3 TC Day 39 = F2 IMHO this is strong evidence Kathy makes it to F2. I would LOVE to hear arguments against that possibility so I could have more confidence in the SNEWSER prediction (which I currently do not).   Top

War on Jeff 14 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-18-02, 04:10 PM (EST) 26. "RE: KATHY'S WEB SITE GAFFE" and if it takes a day of flying to get to Marq. it still could have been 39 days without looking in a mirror, and put her in F3? Just tossing that one out.   Top

Tresnew 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-18-02, 04:37 PM (EST) 27. "RE: KATHY'S WEB SITE GAFFE" Nuku Hiva is only a 3 hour flight from Papeete (Tahiti). A 42 seat prop flies daily nonstop from Tahiti island. Although 'remote', Nuku Hiva is hardly unpopulated.   Top

drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-18-02, 08:06 PM (EST) 30. "another site change...CBS" Going back to one of my old posts now archieved from the start of the season. Was I ever wrong about this season back then. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2362&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes This is what the ultimate survivor poll looked like after the second episode. ******* | pre show | after E1 Gabe *** | 01.49 % | 1.28 % Gina *** | 00.31 % | 0.29 % Hunter * | 01.50 % | 1.26 % John *** | 00.86 % | 0.73 % Kathy ** | 29.92 % | 44.84 % Neleh ** | 01.14 % | 0.98 % Paschal * | 02.96 % | 2.54 % Patricia * | 02.08 % | 1.76 % Peter *** | 05.03 % | ----- Rob **** | 05.90 % | 5.02 % Robert ** | 19.21 % | 16.27 % Sarah ** | 00.31 % | 0.27 % Sean *** | 00.59 % | 0.50 % Tammy * | 01.05 % | 0.89 % Vee **** | 19.14 % | 16.13 % Zoe **** | 08.52 % | 7.25 % I kept watching this and noticed that the day after the "True Lies" episode aired. Kathy's number for E1 droped from 44.84% to 31.67%, which it is still at now. Everyone elses numbers stayed the same, so it no longer adds up to 100% of the votes? I did not post this when I first noticed it because I had no clue what it meant (what was the true lie hidden here?). Were we being given the final four? NO, Zoe was the next voted out. Was it final three, again NO because Robert is gone. I now don't think it is final two either, Kathy is the only one whos number changed.   Top

Teddy_Bear 1675 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 05-18-02, 07:42 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Kathy - Official Final Episode Discussion Thread" I am posting this reply under the Kathy thresd as opposed to the Snewser thresd; because I beleive the Kathy website change from 39 days being suddenly changed to while I was on the island, is highly suspicious, IMO. If this was an actual mistake, why would it be changed? Just to make sure that my memory wasn't playing tricks on me I re-read the thresd, where GT uploaded the original comments; the fact the those comments were changed; would seem to indicate that EPMB or sources close to him found out about it and wanted it deleted. If Kathy doesn't win or make the final two, this strikes me as very odd. Annother reason I have trouble beleiving that Kathy doesn't make the final two, is the essence of the comment itself--Kathy being seen through the eyes of others, while still on the island.. IMHO, Kathy could have only known about the eyes of others, if she makes the finals; that's when the others hold a mirror up to the final 2. In conclusion, both the suspicious fact the the original comment was changed, and the obvious message; that even without the change, the comment--whether original or revised--only makes sense if Kathy reaches the finals. I wouldn't go so far a to draw any conclusions about the final winner, but this comment is more than enough for me--despite Snewser's predicitions; that Kathy is sitting pretty in the finals. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Gabe (to Kathy): I will do whatever it takes to assauge your concerns. The Cream rises to the top. So does the scum. | Light a Virtual Candle Eleanor Roosevelt: No one can make YOU feel inferior without YOUR consent!   Top

annmurphyvt 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 05-18-02, 07:48 PM (EST) 29. "I agree" I don't know about everyone else, but my heart sunk fast with snewsners news this a.m. I agree that at the jury Kathy will see how everyone "sees" her. Kathy's website, asking son if money was okay, Kathy as the narrator of S4, Kathy's rise in popularity from self inflicted early wounds all point to a F2 for her. I trust my GUT....I have a hard time with a Vee win.   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-19-02, 12:39 PM (EST) 32. "SeeBS Website...kathy only one smiling? " This is a copy of annmurphyvt's post (thread was locked): This happened last year with ethan too. CBS Survivor site has a box with F4.. Kathy only one smiling...Couldnt they find a pic of the others smiling...Last year Ethan only one smiling too. I posted it as you all said I was all wet and it meant nothing but he won..ANy thoughts   Top

DarkLotus 344 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 05-19-02, 01:06 PM (EST) 33. "Kathy "solo" editing..." Just a couple more thoughts on editing of Kathy as the winner. I've noticed that there have been SEVERAL time we've been shown Kathy "alone" sorting through her thoughts (outside of confessionals, of course). I think she's the only Survivor we've seen edited this way. I don't remember which episodes some of this came from, so if anyone can back me up that'd be great. We've seen her meditating/doing Tai Chi Swimming in the pond (under the waterfall!) Going after sharks - Ep. 11 Flying her kite - Ep. 12 I dunno... it's just something I thought was interesting, maybe I'm reading too much into it. - Dark Lotus "My balls... my balls... my balls..." - Sean Rector   Top

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