LAST EDITED ON 05-18-02 AT 00:59 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 05-18-02 AT 00:50 AM (EST)

Let's look at Sweatpea in a hypothetical F2:

NELEH vs. KATHY
ROTU4 would all vote for KATHY in despite of Neleh as part of the alleged leaders in pagonging the Rotu4, and I don't buy any of the agruments that suggest any of the Rotu4 would vote for Neleh over Kathy.
SEAN/VEE votes for KATHY based on what happend at Ep12 TC, and many of Sean's previous comments.
PAPPY would be only vote for Neleh.

NELEH vs. VEE
ROTU4 would all vote for VEE in despite of Neleh as part of the alleged leaders in pagonging the Rotu4, and I don't buy any of the agruments that suggest any of the Rotu4 would vote for Neleh over Vee.
SEAN votes for VEE based on what happend at Ep12 TC, and many of Sean's previous comments.
PAPPY would be only vote for Neleh.

NELEH vs. PAPPY
ROTU4 would all vote for NELEH over Pappy who they feel was the true leader in pagonging the Rotu4.
SEAN votes for PAPPY. Even though Sean and Pappy had it out at Ep12 TC, he kept his "respect" for Pappy, and has always refered to Neleh as a major game player.
VEE would vote the same way as Sean for many of the same reasons.
KATHY would vote PAPPY as the more deserving winner.

Therefore, IMHO, Neleh's only shot to win it is if she's with PAPPY in F2.

Neleh does have a legitimate shot at reaching F3 for the following reasons:
1.) Vee is gone unless she wins F4 IC for the reasons stated HERE.
2.) If Vee wins F4 IC, she knows Pappy will not vote for Neleh. Therefore, Vee will likely vote with Pappy (who has no other choice but to vote Kathy), and Neleh would make F3.
3.) If N or P win F4 IC, they will obviously take each other into F3.

Neleh's chances at F2 (assuming she makes it to F3):
1.) Obviously, her best chance is if she OR PAPPY win F3 IC.
2.) If PAPPY is not in F3, then Neleh could make F2 since either Kathy or Vee would see her as less than a threat than their other option.

Thus, I believe Neleh has the best shot (besides Kathy) of making it to F2. She just better pray the Judge is with her in the end.

Edited twice for bad type-o's. I'm done for tonight.