LAST EDITED ON 05-13-16 AT 12:00 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 05-13-16 AT 11:57 AM (EST)

edited because I thought the bold might make it easier to read

Tai (talking to Aubry): I realized last night, all the game became individual.

Like Aubry, Tai realizes this is the chance you need to think for yourself instead of past alliances.

Aubry (talking to Tai): The best move for your game would be to stick with me.

Aubry wanted to take Tai to a F3 when Joe was there.

Aubry (cam. conf.): I played this game making hard decisions. I'm not going to throw it all on an emotional decision at the eleventh hour.

Emotional decision - stick with her original alliance. But given how tight Cydney and Michele are, she knows they'd go after her if Tai wins immunity.

Michele (talking to Cydney): Your name's not getting written down by me.

So Michele is sticking with her alliance even though the game is individual now. Sounds like she won't vote out Cydney, and probably not get to vote for her at the end.

Michele: If Tai wins, I feel like I'm screwed.

Because she is. She promised Cydney not to write her name down, but we did not see Cydney make the same promise.

JP: She will have to fight her way to the end.

Sounds like she doesn't win F4 IC.

Michele: I've been on thin ice but I will fight as hard as I can until my torch is snuffed.

Her torch will be snuffed...most likely at F4.

JP: Cydney is playing with fire with competing alliances.

Sticking with Michele = 2-2 tie. Going with Tai means that she would either eliminate Michele (if Aubry votes with Tai) or a 2-2 tie with between Tai and Michele (if Aubry votes with Michele). If Tai and Michele tie, she can always vote out Tai in the revote.

Michele (talking to Cydney): Aubry definitely wants to go to the end with you.

F3? Yeah, she'd keep Cydney instead of Michele, since we have been given reasons Michele would be seen positively by the jury.

JP: Will they carry her to the end or blow up in her face?

Cydney: There's definitely a trick to being in the middle. You have to play the game and not let the game play you, especially at the end, that's the most important part.

She ends up getting played by the game, when they find out it's a F2 instead of F3. She finishes 3rd.

Tai (talking to Aubry): I'm at the bottom, right? You girls all get together.

JP: Without a solid alliance Tai may have to draw on new resources.

He's already worked with Aubry. Last ep he was working with Michele. The only new resource is Cydney.

Tai (cam. conf.): Every single decision I go with my heart, but I have to look at the bigger picture, because ultimately I want a million dollars at any cost.

Tai plays with his heart, Aubry plays with her head. Head beats hearts.

Survivors who play to win at any cost usually end up burning bridges with jury members. Aubry has voted people out while keeping their respect for her game, while Tai was seen as a flipper. Anyone voting out of respect for Aubry, and anyone voting seeking revenge on Tai would vote for Aubry.

Based on Julia's exit interview, I don't she votes for Aubry, but everyone else will. Jeff reminded us the medical evacs were her closest allies, so that's 2 votes for Aubry. Jason called Aubry an honorary Brawn and Tai flipped to get Scot and Jason out of the game, so there's 2 more votes for Aubry. I think Debbie, Cydney, and Michele would respect Aubry's game enough to vote for her. So the final vote would be 8-1. If there's a vote elimination, she either wins 8-0 or 7-1.

JP: It all comes to a dramatic conclusion...

I think the dramatic conclusion is...

Tai wins F4 immunity, Michele voted out.
Tai or Aubry win F3 immunity, Cydney voted out.

Aubry beats Tai in the jury vote.

This also gives Tai the million dollar quote when he voted to eliminate Scot and save Aubry - I'm making a million dollar decision here.

Since I'm most likely wrong, please pick my "logic" apart.