LAST EDITED ON 11-09-14 AT 01:40 PM (EST)

Michel, great read as always, but I am not so sure. I certainly respect your opinion at these things, so your take this week gives me great pause. But, as Veruca used to say, the editing can be interpreted differently by each of us, and your take may not exactly match up with mine. I am still not ready to call a winner, but things are indeed unfolding.

First of all, I wanted to comment on the episode before the merge when they arrived at TC and there was a nod to Josh from Jon....made me feel that they would work together in the future. And, with the last episode, Jon did decide to side with Josh...at least for the time being. So, it was foreshadowing. I would suspect after the next episode, however, that it will be them going head to head...

The intro: Hunahpu was starving, traded everything for a bag of rice and nobody felt it more than Julie...but despite losing everything, Hun won the IC. Then we hear Keith, “we can’t catch a break, it is frustrating”...then the spit....This start to the introduction summed up the gist of the last episode. Jeremy, in the last episode, is the one that told us, the brainiacs made a horrible decision and it would cost them ~ meaning ME ~ dearly...it would cost them a number, Julie.

At Coyopa:
Dale was in trouble and hoped his fake II would get him through, see him making the offer to give Jon his idol if he is not voted out tonight, “Dude”, says Jon....The majority alliance decided to split the vote between Dale and Keith...Missy in conf: I’m sad about that, but, better Keith than me. In the end, Keith was shocked to get votes but was glad Dale went home, leaving Keith confused and in the dark(See Keith put his head down and shake his head, and he’s right there next to Missy)...12 left.

First of all in the recap, no one got the credit for orchestration of the Dale boot, nor did anyone get chastised for believing Dale had a real idol. So, Missy was not given credit for making the tough decisions...this omission, I thought, was not a good sign. The "majority alliance" got the credit, and that was better for Jon, imo. BUT, Missy was shown as alienating Keith. Clearly, Keith will not be siding with Missy come the merge, he'll eagerly go to Josh and company. And, I have a feeling it could cause trouble for Jeremy, and may bite Julie and Baylor later...fwiw. (Counterpoint to michel’s theory is that you could possibly write this off as doubt cast on Missy for winning.

As we see Keith with the fire, and ominous, serious, confrontational music is playing....leading up to: Missy gets the confessional about writing Keith's name last night, she knew it wouldn't sit pretty...Keith was pissed and he let them know it, Missy talks to him about her rationale, and his response is: You could have let me know.... Interesting to note that Missy and Baylor were defensive of their actions, while Jaclyn is lying there playing with her fingernails, clearly not seen as a culprit... Keith told us he was done with them, he needs somebody that stays loyal, and he will leave them "high and dry". So, we all know where Keith stands! I loved the animal imagery with the little frog hanging high and dry....we will have to pay attention where this little frog turns up again in the show, if at all. I took the frog, hanging by one finger, as a bad sign for Missy....she'll be left high and dry by the others, or at least by Keith...

Moving to Camp Hanahpu, we hear upbeat, up tempo, lively, flute based music playing....Then we have Natalie reading treemail at Hunahpu, OMG, and we get Josh's confessional about how they didn't get a chance to vote Jeremy out, but they can still do this. He and Reed go off and take inventory...them, Alec, Wes, and he'll bring Keith...

Then the confessional from Jeremy: Saying while Reed and Josh were together, he took a backseat and let them run things. He was fine with that, but now it's merge time and I want to crush them! I still cannot discount Jeremy as having a winning edit either. He clearly has a snarky, over-confident, and arrogant way about him, but look who he is playing with. The other smart player, apparently Kelly, was indeed with Jeremy. He’s playing the game and his assessments and actions are laser focused. Clearly, he will be a target, and getting in bed with all the girls could indeed bite him in the end, when he doesn’t win a crucial immunity...time will tell.

So, with news of the merge the line is drawn in the sand, when we get confessionals from 2 power players Josh and Jeremy. In contrast, at Coyopa, Baylor lets them know the merge is here, and it's Jacklyn that get the confessional...she's excited for her and Jon they made it together, we are definitely keeping our options open...they go to the merge site...

We then hear a confessional from Reed: Merge is a whole new chapter, don't know what it will bring, blood vs water element, and there are people that don't have their relatives anymore, don't know?

Jon got the first confessional with the merge: It was about how much food there was, and he was jubilant, "It's awesome!" I agree, Jon is cast as a frivolous player at times, but in a season of B. v W. I don’t know if it’s a bad thing? I do see him as kind of dumb and see how he could be dismissed as a winner, but will he be dismissed by the current players, until it’s too late? We know he’s competitive, and having a young couple in love really hits home the close bonds that loved ones represents. So, I am not ready to count this underdog out....underdog edit, perhaps?

Julie gives us a critical confessional at this point: On our previous tribe we had one couple, reed and josh, now that we have merged it's tough on me because I am missing my BF John, I want to cry... {rant}I do not know how Survivor has taken such a 180 degree turn on their stance on quitters, but, as someone that would have loved to have the opportunity to get on this show, it SUCKS. Quit giving them more rice, AND, quit being nice to quitters! UGH. {/rant}

We then get a train of confessionals: Wes says something about the feast being the merge highlight, as we see Julie dump the trail mix bowl into her bag, then Keith has a conf: He could care less about Missy and Baylor. The whole episode underlines this, that Keith is no longer with Missy and Baylor...this is important, I agree...Keith could be the one that takes out one of the pair...
Josh conf: the game is speeding, you are going through exhaustion, mind craziness, and the elements, now we are merged it's daunting, so many people, this will make or break it... if you will have the numbers for the rest of this game. After hearing Josh have this meaty confessional, we actually see Jeremy getting after it...he’s a man of action...Note that he “starts” with his number one, Natalie. We see him with Natalie, but we don’t hear him confirm things with her, while we “hear” him confirm with the rest of his allies. I am beginning to think that Natalie is the dog that didn’t bark, and that is so funny to me, knowing how VOCAL she and her sister were in the Amazing Race!
...see Jeremy and Nat...Natalie’s actions speak louder than words, perhaps.

Jeremy confessional: The merge is a milestone, but this is where the game starts, the first part was prelim, this is where the game starts....
Then we see he and Julie talking and Julie tells him that these days are tough to see everyone with their loved ones, what ever you are feeling, know I am feeling the same thing.
Jeremy continues on in conf: the only way I can continue on in this game is with numbers; I have myself, Nat, Julie is a number, now I need to get two couples, Jon/Jacklyn, missy/Baylor. Then we see Jon and Jeremy walking together and Jeremy is working him...Jeremy tells us that the number one person he wanted to talk to first was Jon, and Jeremy asks him how he's doing...Jon tells him that he and Missy are still good, and they talk about their numbers...Jeremy, Nat, Julie, Missy/Baylor and he and Jacklyn....Jeremy continues: the first vibe I got from Jon was a good vibe, we are back together, we are good *Then we see a mother possom, carrying her babies on her back....representing Jeremy, getting all the peeps he needs moving forward together...

We see that Jeremy is the one that is covering all his bases and getting his numbers set. Next he goes to Missy...and Missy confirms the numbers: I am so glad to have you back, we are good....we have 7 we are good! *Just wanted to point out it’s Jon that speaks for Jaclyn and Missy that speaks for Baylor.

Then we hear Josh's observations and counter: Josh: (see Jeremy talking to everyone), I tell you what, alliances are crazy right now, there is a lot of mayhem and a lot of talking right now...Jeremy is gathering every one, his troops, because he knows, it could be the couples... the goal is to get the numbers before he gets the numbers because if not, we are screwed.

Next we have a visual of tons of crabs scurrying all over the tidal beach...representing the scurrying going on at Huyopa...Josh wishes Wes a Happy Birthday to Wes before Keith, and Keith has a conf about it...he forgot at first, but he did wish him a Happy Birthday, here on the beach! Yes, I agree, Keith needs time to figure it out, but in the end he roasted the crab for Wes, and it’s also a nod to the socially aware, Josh.

Josh and Reed are seen and they are giving props to Jeremy, because they see him playing...Josh conf: 4 singles, the rest couples, why don't the couples stick together and take out the others? Right now I have me and reed, alec, wes and keith, we need 7, I think I can still get Baylor to vote with me, because i did save her once, and then Missy will transfer with her to me... Obviously, this is his plan "A"...

WE see him then go to Baylor and basically strike out...Josh has a conf about how upset he is that he saved her twice, and Baylor has a conf about thanks for saving me but now I have to vote you out....Reed consoles him, she's doing this because she's with her mom now.

Baylor tells us: Mom had a bunch of alliances, but she only had one strong one, with Josh. She's (Missy) with Jon, Jacklyn, Jeremy and Natalie but being aligned with Josh still is really difficult right now.

Josh came up to me and said are we good?, and Bay said, as far as I know...he said Reed and I have your back...I am going to have to have a talk with my mom...Bay says she wants him to respect her and Missy says he will respect you when you blindside him..Missy tells him she has to be a little bit phony. Clearly, Missy is the calculating one with her eye on the prize, while Baylor is the emotional player whose heart is getting in the way of her game play.

Missy continues in conf: Baylor is 20, sometimes she acts 30, sometimes she acts 10. She has a need to please, but she's going to have to handle her heart, when it comes down to voting Reed or Josh out...See Missy tell Baylor...you have to do what I said, because I already told Jeremy, we have the numbers, Josh doesn't, he's freaking out, this is a game. You have to suck it up, just smile to everybody ...just tell him, yeah, ok, I will go and ask my mom...

The confessional continues: The difference is that she is coming to me and asking...I have made some bad decisions in my life, been married 1, 2, 3 times and she has had to watch them. I felt crappy about that...to have your kid watch you go through it, but here, she's coming to me, I get to redeem myself here. She's watching me, trust me on this, get in the back seat and let me drive, trust me and let me drive.

When Missy had that meaty confessional I did indeed hear soft, pleasant, nice, journey player - type music playing, especially toward the end of the confessional. Could Missy be our journey player? It definitely crossed my mind. The mom that gets to redeem herself to her daughter, to take charge and be in the drivers seat for a while, let her daughter relax, because Momma Missy has her back for a change? Sure sounded like it to me...Survivor is providing her the chance for redemption to her daughter...

Cut to Josh with a confessional about Baylor is now with her mom, so we need Jon and Jaclyn, then see him go to them...Josh tells them getting in bed with Jeremy, he's the strongest guy out here...who do you think they will give the money too, broadway guys or a fireman with 2 kids...Josh: that's my plea to you...Then, we see Missy come up, Jon says, Hi Missy....funny! Missy sees them talking and interjects herself, a heavy presence and warning perhaps to Jon?

Jon conf: Josh approached Jack and I, once again we find ourselves in the middle, between 2 couples, we were in a power position...
Jon and Jack go off...Jon continues in conf: once again we are given a lot of opportunities to control our fate.
once again we are hit over the head with Jon and Jaclyn being in the middle, the power couple, in the position to control their fate. We get this from Jiffy as well regarding this season...in a season full of decisions, will you choose the right course. So, I can’t help but feel that Jon is integral to this story, will his choices be the right ones in the end?
Jaclyn: this is huge
Jon continues: Josh and Reed tied to keeping couples which would get us to top 6...but, they make it tough, they are broadway stars...
Jaclyn: again we are in the middle, this is like a big decision
Jaclyn: one wrong vote could be a million dollar decision

Once again, Jon and Jacklyn are edited to be the true power couple...go with Jeremy or go with Josh? Whoever they choose will be the dominant group and will most likely contain the winner among them.

Then we had the Julie and trail mix scandal. Jon was the one that went and looked in her bag and had a conf: at home who cares, but here, we don't have any thing to eat...if I can't trust somebody in my alliance...ridiculous, she's selfish...

The first mention that he can't trust someone in the alliance that he is holding closest to...Jeremy’s.

Then a conf from Julie about how you could cut the tension with a knife, and now, things don't look too good for her...

Josh has a conf just prior to the IC, about how he is in trouble and really needs the IC win...

Then we have the IC, Jiffy explains the rules, and we have this verbiage:
Jeremy is out first, that's how quickly it can happen. Keep your concentration, this round will last 10 minutes...see clouds moving in, Missy is out, Julie is out,
Next round: farthest away now...Reed is out, Baylor is out, Alec is next, Jacklyn is out, down to five, gust of wind, Natalie is out, down to 4, josh, wes, keith, and Jon.
25 minutes done, final part of the challenge is adding another ball.
Next round: 4 starters...Josh, wes, keith, Jon...2 balls on their disc...Josh is out, see Jeremy chuckle...Jon is out, father and son, keith and Wes is out, Keith WINS!

Keith gets a conf: Keith conf: It's crazy, I won immunity! It came down to me and Wes. I am not ready to hand the reigns over to him yet, tonight is critical....we'll know exactly where everybody stands after tonights vote.

They arrive back to camp, and we see the birds eating the dead carrion on the beach, which is Julie getting eaten alive. Jeremy is first and he has a conf about how he sucked at the challenge and he thought he would be so good at them...he was the first one out, before a mom, an old guy, and even Julie beat him! Then he has the confessional in the "death spot"...after the IC he says, but going to the TC, tonight, I feel like I am safe, I have the numbers..

I am thinking, WHOA, I didn't see this coming right now!

Next we have conf's from Julie about hearing Alec say something snarky, and missing her loved one, then we see Julie chat with Missy... I am feeling lost and confused.
Missy says do you feel done? Do you feel like toast? Julie says she doesn't know what to do everyone has their loved ones, and missy tells her I am your loved one...she says she needs her space...
Missy in conf: she stole some food put it in her bag, and if she goes home it would really screw up the plan, she should stick it out one more day,
Missy continues to Julie: we need you
Julie in Conf: I get it... she needs me because they need me to get farther, I can make a decision right now based on what I need.

*Here is an example of Missy failing. Her influence on others is not perfect...will her influence on her alliance mates control her destiny, or like Julie, will they choose their own path?

See Jon and Jeremy: Jon is telling Jeremy that Josh says that you will be hard to beat,
Jeremy: Jeremy tells him I was out first..Jeremy in conf: Josh is the only one in Josh's alliance that is playing the game, if you take him out, it's over
Josh in conf: This is my home turf. I am playing the game, but I have to give Jeremy props, he is playing the game and playing it well. It's opposite to what I am doing so it is frustrating, we have to get Jacklyn and Jon. It would make sense to keep couples together and singles out.

We see Jeremy stripping down to go for a swim...see Jeremy swimming in the water alone, Josh continues in conf: why don't we get rid of people that don't have a loved one anymore? This could be a nod to Jeremy....he will end up swimming alone at the end too? Or not?

Then we see Josh, Keith, and Wes all talking to Jon...Keith: If we don't stick together he will come after everyone of us...pull the trigger on him first...And Jeremy is big on taking out the couples...having your loved one with you, makes it more camaraderie.

Next, Jon has a very meaty confessional: Talking to people, he is finding himself making a complete 180...looks like we are jumping on the couples train and voting Jeremy out tonight, it's going to suck, because I really like Jeremy...I don't want to ,but it's the best for my game, going to suck, but we gotta do this, I have preached against jumping ship, because if you jump you will be on the bottom of the totem pole, but we are a couple, so going with Josh, Reed, Alex, Wes and Keith has more long term potential with fewer bumps in the road...nice music playing when he had his confessional...the music underlined the importance to this confessional, imo. The ability to size up the situation and take your best option for you at the time, may be how Jon wins....IF he wins. Being adaptable, making the right decision to get you to the end, no matter how difficult could be the strategy. Jon showed us here that he can make the tough choices and go against the people who are relying on him, namely Jeremy and Missy. Will he do it again, in the end? Jiffy told us that he could not have predicted the winner this season...really still makes me think that Jon is still in the running for winner...?

Then you see Jon and Jaclyn walking away holding hands and there is a symbol that is heard as they go...which makes this an important confessional.

Then we cut to the shelter area where someone asks, where's Julie...we hear Alec say she heard me hating on her, somebody had to say it. I really think Alec is such a tool. Boy, if he wasn't good at challenges, or didn't have the potential to be good at challenges, he'd be a perfect goat.

Then we have Julie and Jiffy scene, she goes. Then Jiffy tells the tribe and Jeremy has the first conf: she was my number, I needed that, I could be going home tonight, then Missy has a conf next...sad, she talked to her last.
Then Josh: it's a complicated game, you don't want them to quit if you are in an alliance with them, on the other hand, my odds just got better...
Josh in conf: Julie quit and that puts Jeremy with one less, and our odds just got better, puts Jeremy and that alliance at unease because they have one less member.
Then Jeremy tells Jiffy: I'm pissed, keep her warm, give her food...
Alex adds: she does nothing...she dug herself in a hole.
Jaclyn adds: she stole food and kept it to herself, it makes people mad.
Jon: she was so scared of living up to the fact, oh yeah, I am a selfish person.

All the nasty confessionals regarding the players and their feelings for Julie with her quit, may be CBS underlining their disdain for quitters in a subtle way...

No TC tonight, then 2 confessionals...
Josh: I do feel with Julie's exit, it was not on our side because we wanted to get Jeremy out right then, but he's on borrowed time right now, I feel like it was 80 percent it would have been him tonight...he thought it was me or Reed tonight.J
Jeremy: Julie messed it up, because I am upset because she really messed up my plans...

This episode was somewhat of a shocker to me as I really saw Jeremy's alliance advancing in the game, along with Jon and Jaclyn. But, with the previews, we can clearly see, thanks to the editing thread, that the power couple, Jon and Jaclyn, will most likely swing back to Jeremy and company.

For next week, just on the editing alone, my gut says that Josh wins immunity and Alec goes home. It will either be Alec or Josh. Alec, Wes, Josh, and Reed are in big trouble, Keith has an idol, and Kelly told us that Missy most likely knows...I agree, Missy has a whole new opponent in Keith....has she met her match?

I thought Missy had a journey player-like edit with her confessional about being divorced 3 times and now she gets to be the mom and drive the car, telling Baylor, you just relax, and count on me for a change.

I think Jon and Jaclyn being adaptable to changing situations may serve them well.

Jeremy now has 2 formidable opponents...Keith and Josh. Secondarily, Wes and Reed. Jeremy is a great shield, not only for Natalie, but will be for Jon/Jaclyn too, if they do decide to go with him. Missy and Baylor are making enemies all by themselves right now...Josh and Keith as well.

So, I still see the ones that are most out of the limelight as Jon and Jaclyn. I don't see anyone talking about opposing either of them right now, everyone is still trying to woo them...On a side note, Natalie is flying under the radar in a beautiful way as well.

I thought Keith had a stellar episode this time. He is playing this game and he’s more observant of the people around him than it may appear. He won immunity...he's not ready to hand the reigns over to anyone, just yet? He is figuring it out. Missy and Baylor have crossed a line with him, and he’s called Jeremy out as the biggest threat, “to come after each one of us”! He has an idol in his pocket, and has been edited to keep it to himself. He did alot of the persuading to get Jon on board...He’s discounted by everyone.

I believe that Jon and Jeremy are still our strongest contenders for the winner, but I think that Keith, Missy, and Natalie cannot be dismissed either.