LAST EDITED ON 12-01-14 AT 08:48 AM (EST)

After 24 days, 7 voted out and no idols played, leaving 3 idols still in the game, Jon's, that he shared with only Jac and Missy. Keith's, that Reed told everyone about.
and one that hadn't been found. Facing TC Reed was the target of the majority alliance, but after EI Jeremy became suspicious of Jon, everything changed...at TC, Jon convinced enough of the tribe to take out Jeremy, sparing Reed and blindsiding Jeremy's closest ally...Natalie

The 3 idols in the game have not been played, but this was favorable for Jon, because it states the "Jeremy became suspicious of Jon and everything changed". This gives the credit to Jeremy for igniting his boot. Jon capitalized on it, but blindsided Natalie, Jeremy's closest ally.

Keith was impressed, and credits Reed as a gamer, who is much better at Mathematics than he is. Then we get Reed's take, whether to stay with Jon and take out his alliance one by one, or to get the guy that thinks he's alpha male here.

Then Natalie has a very telling confessional: Natalie seen talking to Missy: I felt totally blindsided...In confessional: It sucks as Jeremy was my partner, I had to put on a good face and pretend. Then we see Jon who leans over and tells her that he has the idol. I wouldn't tell you, if I didn't trust you now, everything is still the exact same....Natalie in conf: It was Jon behind it, I want to give Jon a taste of his own medicine at the right time, and moment.

So the stage is set....Natalie wants to exact revenge for the Jeremy vote out, it will either work or not.

Personally I can see it come to a head, and I can see a case for either side to triumph. Natalie who really seems to be quite perceptive and have her head in the game at this point could triumph. But, I just question why she did not seem to have any relevance to the early game, while Jon certainly did. I could see them going to blows and Jon coming out on top as well. His instincts are not really off.

See Natalie at night, wake up when they all are sleeping, she has to find the idol...Baylor showed her the immunity idol clue. 1- something from the flag, so to do list: find idol, if I can find it, that would be amazing because I would like to get rid of Jon....cut to intro.

Natalie starts on her quest to find the idol.

Then we have the RC, and the yellow tribe easily wins when the blue tribe cannot open their lock with the right key. Reed gives his place up to Missy....Reed is a player and he's self serving, they should see it. He tells us he needs the time to talk with Keith to get the ball rolling to knock out Jon.

Cut to the baseball field and the equipment and kids. Missy has a nice confessional but the star of the moment was Jon. Jon got a special highlighted edit here, when he spoke of Jaclyn's inability to birth children. But, he still loves her, she is the love of his life, and they will adopt. Jaclyn sealed the deal by affirming that everything would work out for them because they had crazy love to give. Now the question I ask is WHY was Jon so positively highlighted here? Yes, it fit nicely with the kids and both of them there....but Jon has really had the most positive edit, and I don't know if the winner of the show would.

I suppose they are highlighted because they symbolize all that is involved in a blood vs. water season...

J had a nice confessional about his dad in the first episode, then a nice one in episode 2 about if you make a mistake you own it and move on, and nice moments like, if I have learned one thing from watching Survivor all these years, it's to follow your gut. Now this edit...Either Jon is the winner, or the hero that falls just short...it could possibly be the rise before the fall as well.

Also interesting to note that when Jon walked up to bat, it was Missy that was heard cheering for him...Jon and Missy have the important connection in this game, at least that is the way I have seen it.

*I loved your comparison with Jon bunting the ball and being surprised to be safe, to how he came into TC, confident...

Back at camp, Reed pulled Keith away and had a great confessional: I knew I had to have a come to jesus talk with Keith. Where do you stand in this game? Some times I don't know if Kieth understands the intricacies of how this game is played. See him talking, that other alliance is convinced that you have the idol, they want to split the vote between you and Wes, but Alec and I are going to vote with you and Wes. I am counting on the majority alliance will split the vote, but if we stay strong, we should take out Jon in one fell swoop, play big or go home and I hope it pans out. That's my plan, what are your thoughts?

Keith is like uh? says in conf: he still may not have to play his idol, hopefully... Then they cut to Natalie and Baylor alone in the campsite...

Natalie: it's awesome, finding it was exactly how you think it will feel. it's like my little twinnie, my friend out here. Baylor has become my number one. Me and her, we are on the same page and we have to get rid of Reed because he is really good at immunity challenges and all he does is make up stuff so then target is off of him and is on other people. We keep Jon feeling comfortable for one more vote, so we keep the numbers, then next time get Jon. But, we vote Reed tonight, then take out Jon, next....Nat says that Reed is so scary, Baylor: I know he is....

This was huge insight into Natalie. She is targeting Reed first, she wants one more guy out, then Jon. It's very interesting that she declares Baylor her new number one. We all know that Baylor already has a number one, her mom. So, now Baylor has 2 direct paths to the end, good for her. But, what about Missy? I would bet that Baylor indeed tells Missy about the idol that Natalie finds, so the question becomes will Missy tell Jon about it? Something to think about....

Wes was sent to EI, and had no confessionals there, just as Baylor and Natalie had no confessionals there. Wes returns and they have the IC. Jon steps down first, always so bad to give in to temptation and show your confident cards. Keith called him out on it, "He feels that safe", Jon responds, "I would have stayed up there if I thought I could last"...."I'm 53, how old are you?" Clearly, Keith got the best of him.....Jaclyn stepped down and so did Baylor and Missy, then Wes....shocking to see him step down. Alec went, and it was down to Keith, Natalie, and Reed....Reed wins. I definitely thought his split was over the top, and seemed to be rubbing it in...clearly that's a mistake!

10 points to SEG for figuring us all out and hiding Reed's IC win!

Reed in confessional sums it all up: Reed in conf:...whatever...Jon stopped down 7 minutes into the challenge, always telling that means he is going home tonight...see Keith, he asked Reed, Jon? Yes. l will have 4 people vote for Keith, and 3 vote for Wes...then us four vote Jon, and he will go home. It's an amazing plan, but it has to be stuck to. I loved the wording..."it has to be stuck to"...

Then Alec had his confessional, then Missy with Jon. Missy fell for Reed....Reed sacrificing his spot in Reward cemented Missy to him, she was the one to lead Jon confidently too the wrong path. Jon noted, "but Reed will not vote with us", and Missy tells him, "but one of them has the idol, if we don't do this now....then Alec reassures him. Didn't Jon just tell us that you need to follow your gut in this game of Survivor?

At TC Jiffy talks about trust. Then Reed is called on and he points out that while he understood while the 5 of them stepped down, he couldn't figure out why Wes did, he must be comfortable, that he most likely had an idol between he and Keith. This set Keith off, he wasn't sure that Reed was with them, so he interjected, and he leans over and tells Reed to "stick with the plan" (it has to be stuck to! LOL). I agree if everyone had held cool, I think this would have been dismissed, but Reed freaks out and starts verbally telling them to not get them paranoid, etc. And, before you know it they are all talking over each other! THIS WAS EPIC, imo, something I don't recall seeing before!

Jiffy wraps it up quickly and Natalie tells Jon to "play your idol", he didn't hear her, and she repeats it....he says, Really?, she says, "it's up to you" as she buries her head in her hands. Jon plays the idol, then Keith plays his, half heartedly offering it to Wes, then playing it on himself. Jon gets 4 votes, "so happy I played that", and Keith gets 3 votes, and Wes is out with 2 votes. Jon, laughing turns to Reed, "You sly dog, you!" Baylor asks what happened, "so Alec voted Reed?", and Jaclyn tells her "yeah, and so did Reed"...clearly not able to follow along, as Natalie so eloquently did!

Jiffy's words were VERY telling, imo, we've heard them BEFORE!!! Jiffy: Well it is quite clear that you guys are playing this game in the moment, it's aggressive and it's risky and now that you have started you can never go back...

WOW, Jiffy used those exact words to talk about this seasons winner....the one you won't expect...a winner that plays the game in the moment. So, who apparently played the game in the moment from Jiffy's vantage point....I would say Jon and Keith, and Natalie! Before this, it was Jon that played in the moment when he orchestrated Jeremy's boot when the opportunity arose, when he didn't win immunity.

This was a GREAT episode, and an even greater TC! I was thrilled with the outcome! So, now where does this leave us for next episode: Natalie has identified that she wants "one of the guys out first, then she will go for Jon"....but interesting is that Reed is still there and she said this: we have to get rid of Reed because he is really good at immunity challenges and all he does is make up stuff so then target is off of him and is on other people, he's so scary.

I believe perhaps that as long as Reed is around, he's a shield for Jon, but there is doubt. We all know that with the edit for the winner, there is usually some doubt cast on the person at some point. Clearly, there is doubt for Jon's end game. In this episode you note that Keith calling out Jon for stepping down at the IC was critical and points to him not winning the end game, but in the same episode we have the stellar highlight of him at the RC. He's a tough read.

I am not convinced in a conflict between Natalie and Jon that Natalie will triumph. He's told us he has to listen to his gut....he did with the Jeremy boot, but while he told Missy that "Reed will not vote with us", he was talked out of listening to it by Missy. If this episode has an impact on Jon, he will not make the mistakes he made here again, with challenges, with idols, and with his gut.

Then, we know that Baylor knows about Natalie's idol, and if she knows, than Missy most likely knows. I believe that the Missy/Jon relationship is really more important to Jon's game than the Jon/Jaclyn relationship. Time will tell.

Reed is a dead man walking. As soon as he doesn't win immunity, I think he's toast. But, who is the biggest challenge threat after Reed? I think Natalie?

We are getting teases that Natalie "could" flip the game, and she's smarter than she looks to Keith, clearly she could do it. Jon could be toast, but for some reason, I don't see it. I do think, however, that Jaclyn could be in trouble....one of them will most likely be going, imho. Jon's highlight edit at the ballgame could be the icing on his story, or not?

If Jaclyn were to go home, what or who would become Jon's number one? Missy.

One thing that looks clear is that Baylor is going to the F3!

I thought Missy's game took a down turn this week. She went on Reward and fell for Reed's plan, and almost gave Reed and company their boot target. But, perhaps it's okay for Missy to take a back seat at this point in the game. In a game full of alphas a beta will win...does Missy just need to sit back and let the big dogs take each other out? It's possible. Will Missy tell Jon about Natalie's idol? Who will be the best option to Missy's end game....Jon or Natalie? Or does she care?

This season has been salvaged by the mix of students of the game with clear folks that are not familiar with how it's played, and it's becoming quite entertaining! Jiffy told us someone that can play in the moment will win, and from the TC the three that stood out were Natalie, Jon, and Keith. Great read as always, michel!

I do feel that Keith is a tool...not very likely to win the game, imo.