Thanks for all your work, michel. I love reading your reviews and assessments and you always amaze me with your insights!

I think that this season could very well turn out as the last B v W did in that once one of the pairs is out, the other person is perhaps not considered as threatening to move beyond. So, perhaps in my assessments, I will emphasize the person within the pair that I see having more substance. Sometimes though, it's harder to decipher who is important to the short term story vs. the long term one, especially in the beginning.

We did start out on the helicopter with first glimpses of some, then an intro on each pair. Jon and Jacklyn, clearly Jon got the sound byte, I would venture to say that he will be the one to outlast from this pair. Jacklyn, miss Michigan, is just for show, lol.

Next came John and Julie...he makes his case, and she makes hers. While she says she is independent, I bet she will be the one to get to prove it, most likely outlasting him, just as Monica outlasted her alpha male.

Then we had Missy and Baylor. I would place more money on the one that had to be maternal, Baylor.

Alec and Drew followed, with noting their sibling rivalry. My money is on the younger brother.

Next were Kelly and Dale, the farmer and his daughter. She got 2 sound bytes, she is younger and making her own way, I would bet on her outlasting him.

Josh and Reed were next and they had by far the most positive clip, making fire and catching crabs. They are players. Of the two, Josh was shown to speer the crab, he could be the one to outlast.

Then Jeremy and Val with their job rivalry. Clearly, Jeremy had a million dollar quote. My money is on him to outlast her.

Next were the twinnies noting that they have only been apart about 2 weeks in their lives...knowing they will be placed on different tribes will not be good for them...I don't know which one will do better?

Finally, we had Keith and Wes, the firefighters. Keith really seems quite salty and cutting...he's definitely going to be comic relief or is there a little villain in him? I don't know, but he does seem more of the character than Wes.

I whole-heartedly agree with your initial assessments of the intros, michel, on their neutrality, positive or negative. I do want to note however that the negative ones may not necessarily be bad for the couple as well. Just as Cirie was introduced to us as someone that couldn't get off the couch, and someone that was afraid of a LEAF, she certainly showed growth! LOL! So, cannot discount someone making a negative first impression! I also felt that Keith will be the comic relief, salty character of the season. I concur with the most positive first impressions going to Jeremy and Val and Reed and Josh. They had very very positive intros, and look like contenders.

Excellent catch on Jeremy striking the pose!

Then they arrive in the arena area, Jeremy loses on the rock/paper/scissors and is ready to go, then to find out it's his wife that he is competing against. She is game on, he "smokes" her and wins, sending her to EI, then he chooses Keith to accompany her.

We see them arrive first at their camp, Reed gets the initial confessional on arriving, and then Jeremy has a meaty confessional regarding his mixed feelings and how emotional he is at sending her to a bad place...thus the crux of the theme, having a real bond with a family member on the show elevates the emotions so much more, so much that it makes you consider playing a different type of game than if you didn't have a loved one with you...then, Jeremy has a significant quote and plan, "I have a good rapport with women, I get along with women so it’s time to go balls to the walls; it’s time to play.” Then we immediately see him go off to make alliances with the women....Kelly, Missy, Natalie. Done. He has a plan and he puts it in action. I'd say he is an alpha male and is going out to hand pick his tribe of followers. Is he playing a Tom Westman kind of game?

Later he adds the "old" man to the group, his fellow firefighter that went with his wife out to exile....sounds good, but I can't help but to think the alliances shown will rarely work out....it's a start.

Great catch, Michel on the musical introductions to the tribes. Upbeat and lively for Honeypoo, while a bit more serious at Coyopa....interesting. Clearly makes you think that Coyopa will have the struggles and perhaps more conflict and losses. Foreshadowing.

I agree that Nadiya was the narrator and it was on purpose that the confessional noting the age differences was placed here...clearly, the older will be siding together, while the younger do as well....at least that was my take. Then we get Dale's perspective as the very oldest, and he most prove himself. We see him going to the water and removing the decoration, clearly could be something to help or hurt him in the future, but he is a player and he's thinking. I like it! He ends up starting fire and proving his worth, and then later he makes a great target of Nadiya by noting her aggressive game play in AR. He is a force imo, but will the younger ones embrace him or look at him as a threat moving forward? Time will tell, but in the first episode, he was one of the stars on Coyopa, imo.

This tribe definitely has the characters. Josh does have a good social game and Baylor is a stand out, now that we know Nadiya is gone I would bet that Baylor or Josh plays the narrator? John will be interesting and I am sure controversial.

Next we had Val and Keith on EI. Val getting the clue and not sharing it....really? For the life of me I cannot think why she wouldn't. Making an ally on the other tribe can really help you in your future. What a dumb move, imo. And, soon everyone will know there are clues to be had to the HII on EI. Really stupid move on Val's part, imo. Keith appeared dumb to me, for not recognizing a clue when he partially sees one....really, he bought it was something to do back at her camp? Now who is the one that is mentally like a rock? Keith is going to be comic relief, imo...He did find out that Jeremy is a firefighter though, and we see the wheels turning there to get him an in later. Clearly, I also believe Keith is going to be around for a while!

Next we go back to Honeypoo where Drew is building the shelter and has the "I was a model in Europe" confessional. The shelter does look like a good one to me, maybe he is there to be a survivor? Then the confessional from Julie, calling him a young, dumb guy...will she be able to manipulate him, because she thinks she sees him for what he is? I don't know but I got the impression she will. Could these two be a conflict on the show?

Then we go back to Coyopa and Wes recognizes John Rocker. I look at Wes now as I did Woo with Cliff. John has a nice confessional asking Wes to keep it under his hat, if not, he may consider voting Wes out, just as the other baseball player from Cochran's winning season voted out the girl that recognized him...

Next we have the drama with Josh's eyes swelling up...I loved how you noted that Alec telling Josh about the dangers around the camp could be foreshadowing that Baylor and Josh could eventually vote him out and apparently end up being far more dangerous than those that he listed!

I don't know why else this scene was left in there, other than it really happened and Josh was able to take it in stride and to problem solve to effectively resolve the problem. Proving he's a real survivor?

I have to say I do like Jon, I loved his character, easy going, trying to have fun, seemingly making the most of the situation with a light heart, then having his confessional about his dad...clearly he could be a journey player, or he could have something to prove. I like his chances as a long term player.

Regarding the IC: Yes, Wes and Jon were scramblers, John R was able to adapt, I saw that as a positive, and Jacklyn being tentative was clearly a negative. (especially in contrast to her fast boyfriend, Jon). Kudo's to the puzzle participants for Honeypoo, clearly winning the game....Jon, Kelly, Julie, and Reed. Then Missy gets called out, I do have a premonition that these two could be just like Cierra and her mom, Laura, from the last B v W...maybe they will both make it to the merge?

I agree that the cameras went to the winning tribe first to see how Keith assimilated back into his tribe. I felt it was all about Keith. Keith has legs!

Now the pre TC drama at Coyopa. Dale mentions Nadiya's game in the AR, and when the guys are altogether, Alec brings it up. Then we see Nadiya come to Josh and tell him that she sees him as one of the girls, and Josh tells us later that that is the worst thing you could say to him....then we see Val wanting to make history with an all girls alliance. Clearly this is setting up Josh as the swing vote, and then at TC he alludes to it, which I do not see as a smart move. Josh was extremely perplexing to me. We have Baylor coming to him after the fact to tell him that she wants to be with him. Clearly he most have told her that he was voting for Nadiya, as she did. Then he ends up voting for Baylor....I clearly don't get that. The one girl that is seemingly in his pocket and he throws her a vote. If Baylor confides to the guys that she voted for Nadiya with them, then they will figure it out, that Josh's vote was not with them....throwing up red flags. I don't know why Josh wouldn't commit to either side, or was it that he didn't want to have a hand on voting out someone he did like? We'll have to see.

I also thought when Josh confided that he needed to go with the group that would be best for his game, were the boys really better for his game? I don't know?

Here are my take on the players and definitely I will compare them with their loved ones because I do tend to think that it will go the way of the first, that once a member of a pair is out, the other remaining person will probably last a while, at least they will have a better chance to make the merge.

Under the radar at this point, and then a positive or a negative vibe for them:

1. Jacklyn, Miss Michigan. Clearly practically nothing from her. On the wrong side of the numbers at Coyopa, and also a negative call out from Jiffy in the IC. Definitely think that Jon has it all over Jacklyn.

2. Alec: Of the two brothers I am kind of rooting for Alec as the younger, underdog. He's calling out dangers to the tribe, not recognizing Josh and Baylor could be the most threatening. On the right side of the numbers in his tribe.

3. Wes: Calling out John Rocker in private, saying something to the others about it. A sidekick perhaps? Between his Dad and him, my money is on dad!

4. Drew: The model turned shelter builder. Not much to go on at the moment. On the winning tribe.

5. Reed: Really nothing of substance, yet. Shown to be a survivor in the intro clips. Maybe his time will come?

6. Julie: really only one comment that had to do with John R, and assessing Drew. I do think she will outlast her counterpart.

Characters:

7. and 8. Nadiya and Natalie: They are so much alike, I really can't discern between the two. As prior stars in AR and AR All-Stars, they are celebrities in this season. Now that Nadiya is out already, I see Natalie as a longer term player.

9. John Rocker: Julie tells us he is an alpha with a capital A, and he tells us his background as well. He kept a low profile like he said he wanted to in the first episode, but we already know that the cat is already out of the bag, and the preview teases tell us that he's coming into the spot light in the next episode. John R is definitely going to be a big target, and as long as he's in the game, peeps will have a mighty fine shield. How long will they tolerate him? Clearly, he will never make end game.

10. Keith: I see him as a LONG term player. Clearly he's a character. He will definitely outlast his son, Wes. He's salty, not too observant, but he does have a plan. Could he be a villain? Perhaps, I don't know quite yet. He's going to do something that is the worst thing in Survivor history, can't wait to see what it is!

Players with longer potential:

11. Kelly: I almost put her in the under the radar group but she was the first one that Jeremy asked to be with him. She was one of the ones that completed the puzzle first. I think she will outlast her father, Dale.

12. Dale: While he was definitely one of the stars of the first episode, I think he will be out far before his daughter, Kelly. He showed that he knew he would be in trouble as the oldest and probably one of the least physical. But, he proved his worth by breaking his glasses and making fire. He also got the credit for moving the target to Nadiya. As michel notes though, now that they have fire, will he still be so vital to the tribe? We know, as Nadiya pointed out that the tribe will be divided into younger and older. My money is on the younger to outlast.

13. Val: She is a player but seems to be making all the wrong moves imo. She lost the RC, went to EI, got the clue, but didn't share it. When she returned she made bee line to the water area to look for the HI, probably not too inconspicuously! Then she wants to make history with an all girls alliance that failed. She is not going to be long for this game, imo. Jeremy appears to be a star, Val appears to be heading for a much earlier demise, imo.

14. Baylor: She is a player, and we are seeing her. She recognizes another player, Josh, as her number one. She has legs, imo. I do foresee a similar place as Laura and Cierra had....perhaps they can both make the merge.

15. Missy: See Baylor above. She is in the majority alliance, seems like a good player. No reason to see her in danger for a while.

16. Josh: Definitely a star in the first episode. Shown to be a Survivor with his BF in the intro. Able to tolerate an allergic reaction with his eyes. Wanted to be "that guy" that everyone goes to, and apparently was. Wanted to choose the side that would benefit his game the most so voted for Baylor? Surely didn't get that, but still a star in the first episode.

17. Jon: I loved this guy. Rolled with the flow, good sense of humor, seems very likable, on the winning tribe, definitely a challenge horse....and, he has substance and may be on a journey with his father having Cancer. Clearly, he will out last his GF, could he win? He seems more layed back than Jeremy...hmmm. If he ends up in an alliance with Jeremy, which I would bet he does, he could win.

18. Jeremy: The star and hero of the show. Definitely an alpha....volunteering to do the first RC, then being emotional about it. Actively recruiting hand picked recruits to align with. Yes, he's in the drivers seat, and Michel noted a very powerful image with Jiffy asking who will claim the million dollar quote. He could be a serious player and he could win.

Here are my picks to outlast their partners:

Natalie, Baylor, Josh, Julie, Kelly, Alec, Keith, Jon, Jeremy