More likely (if the winner is, indeed, male), based upon the actual casting histories of 18 of 21 Games ... F05 - Trish
F04 - Tony
F03 - Spencer or Woo
F02 - Kass
Sole Survivor - Woo (or Spencer)
...
Note: I moved Tony to F04 and Spencer (Woo) to F03 in acknowledgement of the 'Tony goes in 4th' spoiler. But I think that it is more probable that he will stay in the Game until the F03. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Final Two.
But, assuming that he is, indeed, a Sagittarius (born 12-18-'73), it is extremely unlikely (as in, 3 of 21, unlikely) that Tony is the Sole Survivor of Cagayan.