LAST EDITED ON 04-25-14 AT 03:30 AM (EST)In 18 of the 21 Seasons (the three exceptions have been Jud (Fabio) in Nicaragua, Yul in Cook Islands and Tina in The Outback) that have had a majority/minority split between Earth and Water natives - and - Fire and Air natives, a member of that Game's majority has won it.
The five minority castmembers in Cagayan were/are: Cliff (Fire|Sagittarius), Sarah (Air|Libra), Jeremiah (Air|Gemini), Tony (Fire|Sagittarius) and Kass (Fire|Sagittarius). And from the moment that casting for this Season was completed, it has been highly unlikely - virtually impossible - that any one of that five would become its Sole Survivor.
So, if a man is indeed the winner, and the man isn't Spencer (Water|Cancer), then it is a lot - an 18 of 21 lot - more probable that his name is Woo (Water|Pisces) than it is that it is Tony.
As for his Fabio-like edit ...
Irony Pending ... ?
When asked to name the former
Survivors he is most like, Spencer
offered Stephen (of Tocantins)
- and -
Marty (of Nicaragua)