LAST EDITED ON 04-12-11 AT 05:19 PM (EST)

Mike is clearly the first choice to be booted by the Ometepes. I worry that he might win that first immunity challenge. He was in a zone last time and just barely lost. Still, I am going to go with him as the most likely first boot.

Then who is the next target? I don't see Rob breaking up his Ometepe alliance yet. The only one to vote out would be Phillip and the red-headed stepchild showed how little chance there is that he'll flip with his tirade at TC. So Rob should be confident that Phillip is still with him and even if he decided not to be, Zappy can't like Phillip. And if there's two TCs coming, there's a not a lot of time for anything to change. So who will Rob target at the second TC?

Julie seems under the radar and she's getting narrator type confessionals so she's probably safe. Steve is the weakest of the remaining Zappy's, so he ought to be safe. That leaves Rooster and David. Rooster could be a physical threat at some challenges, but let's face it - he's not a smart guy. Rob won't be impressed or threatened.

I think David signed his death warrant when he made it clear he could have won the tarp challenge and then also commented on Rob's brilliant move to get rid of Matt again. The first shows Rob that David is a challenge threat, especially puzzles, which is Rob's forte. The second comment shows Rob that David understands the game and therefore is a threat.

So I'm going to go with Mike and David. I admit, I kind of wonder if the order is reversed with Mike winning the first immunity. But I'm going to go with Rob winning the first immunity and Julie winning the second one.

ETA Matt as the RI boot if there is a duel, which I doubt.