LAST EDITED ON 04-12-11 AT 12:15 PM (EST)

I am going to go against popular choice yet again for my second choice. Last week I believe only I and one other said Matt was back to RI - and we were right. Why my picks this week? Well I believe that Andrea and Rob win II. I think Zap will not vote Grant to try and keep him around. They don't like David so they vote for him. Mike is a likely target for Ome though it could just as easily be Steve. Everything I have read points to a double zap I just don't think it will be both Mike and Steve and I believe Baboon boy (Rooster to everyone else) is not in the cross hairs this week. I believe there will be a duel on RI because I don't see 3 guys being there until next episode. Matt will lose to Mike (if he is first to go) Matt will beat David (if he is first to go). There will not be a second duel.

For the inevitable pagonging (and predictable) outcome, they have to spread out the drama/excitement over the course of the next few weeks (meaning a lot of RI next week as Matt defends his homecourt). This week, two immunity challenges and two tribal councils is drama enough, so we'll go with the least dramatic picks to be booted.

Picks reasoning:
Mike: his facetime spiked
Steve: he's been shown to be "next out" for the past few weeks

Why it won't be Phillip, David, Julie, Ralph:
- Phillip's exit will be the "entertaining" or dramatic portion of a future episode
- "David is good at challenges" (as Jeff reminds us), so when he's the last one standing (with immunity), the drama will be "which Ometepe goes first?" (hint: Ashley)
- Julie (and Ralph, to a lesser degree) is UTR

Immunity 1: Rob
Immunity 2: Natalie (could be Grant - but I'm really hoping to see some more of Nat's victory "dance" moves, so I'm pulling for her to win)

Mike is featured heavily in the previews - so I'm guessing he's the bootee.

Corvis convinced me that Ralph (or David) is more likely due to the dip in screen time. I'm still convinced that David stays safe due to being more dramatic later on when he has immunity.

Thus, I'm also changing the "Winner of Immunity 2" to David, per Dabo's comment that it's likely that Rob's entire tribe sits down to eat, leaving the four remaining Zaps to struggle. I don't foresee Ralph or Steve winning this (actually, I can see Ralph skipping it entirely to eat something). Julie has a good shot, but "David is good at challenges," so...

Mike and Steve buddied up on day 1.

First individual immunity of episode, Rob. Looks like Rob to me.

Second individual immunity of episode, Julie. If they are offered food to sit out or drop out, Ometepes have numerical advantage and multiple targets to select from, they may as well fuel up. Pride might get Phillip into it, and others may not assess the situation quickly enough, but even once into it there is no reason for any of them to wear themselves out on this challenge. Zapateras all should give it their best shot, Julie and Ralph have reserves to call on, Steve is spent, David might drop out early to make himself seem less of a threat.

Matt on RI, he might as well quit at this point since he isn't playing Survivor, hasn't been all the time he's spent on Rejection Island, and totally sucks at the game anyway.

All other picks unchanged. On reviewing all the promos, Ralph and Steve are seen only briefly, group in hut and challenge beach group shot, otherwise absent; so OFG Theory they are probably safe. Between David and Julie, David was labelled the puzzle-solver by his old pal Stephanie.

I am going with tribephyl's picks since he was correct about Matt last time.

Except I don't think there will be a duel and I don't think any hidden idol will be played.

Wins 1st Immunity: Rob
Voted Out: Mike
Wins 2nd Immunity: Grant
Voted Out: Steve

I was right last week too but you did not go with my picks....

Yes, well, but I did congratulate you.

I don't think David will get voted out this week, but if you are right I'll congratulate you again!

LAST EDITED ON 04-12-11 AT 03:07 PM (EST)

I have pretty much stated my opinion in the SOTS this week. I may be off on Phillip, but last week when he went under the radar in confessionals was shocking. As Rob Cesternino pointed out in his blog, Phillip was poised to jump at the merge. He appears to be solidly in the fold, but is he? Also, if you were a Zap, what options do you have. All they need is to get one to flip and it's a tie....clearly, the outliers are their best bets, and David told us last week that he knows who low man on the totem pole is.

The preview promo pits Rob vs. Grant...Rob has control of his tribe, or does he? Grant is in question here....and then there is Phillip. Who does Rob have in control, Grant, and who does he not have in control...Phillip. It's misdirection because they want you to think that Grant is not in control, while Phillip surprisingly is...

The promo that comes next first notes that Matt was sent a one-way ticket back to RI care of Godfadda, Boston Rob, like a hit from a mob movie...Robfadda tells us it's his game, he's in charge. Julie notes that there is no breaking their loyal shield, which makes me think, perhaps there is a way to break that loyal shield....Phillip.

Then, Rob says that he can't shake this idol paranoia, as we see them searching for one...it might cost me my survivor life...and then we hear Phillip say, "I've got to make something happen", and Rob ends it with he has to gamble.

Well, I propose that Rob is talking about booting one of his own when he says it could cost him his survivor life, but he has to gamble. If Phillip is saying in this episode that he has to make something happen, then yes, chances are he's going to conspire with the Zaps...and like a hit from a mob movie, Phillip will be gone. The misdirection is Grant.

Last week Rob told us that Mike was number one on his hit list. That won't change, unless he could find an idol...I think if someone found one, they'd show us someone finding it. They are doctoring up the vidcaps to make us believe they will. The gamble isn't about voting for someone that doesn't have the idol, it's about voting out one of his own. First TC will vote out Mike, second TC will be Phillip.

I think Rob wins the first IC. I think that Grant will win the second IC. First three at RI will be Matt, Mike and Phillip.

ETA: Just to cover my bases IF there is a duel on RI, I think that Mike will beat Matt...Matt said it last week, he's just not good at the game of Survivor...

The first boot isn't difficult to decide. Rob wants Mike out, Rob has immunity and unless Mike finds the HII, he goes to RI to give Matt some competition in the three-way contest that will start episode 10.

The second boot is much harder to decipher. Is Phillip the boot or is he misdirection, yet again? Or do the Zapetera's continue to get pagonged. I think the Omes will target Steve, David or Ralph and since we see David in the vidcaps the most, I'm picking him.

first immunity winner - Rob
second immunity winner - Andrea
no duel

1st IC-Rob
1st Boot-Mike (but it could be Rooster)
2nd IC-Julie (I think Rob and his whole tribe eats)(If Mike makes it to 2nd IC, he wins)
2nd Boot-Rooster (if Rooster's gone already then it's David bc Mike wins 2nd IC)

LAST EDITED ON 04-12-11 AT 05:19 PM (EST)

Mike is clearly the first choice to be booted by the Ometepes. I worry that he might win that first immunity challenge. He was in a zone last time and just barely lost. Still, I am going to go with him as the most likely first boot.

Then who is the next target? I don't see Rob breaking up his Ometepe alliance yet. The only one to vote out would be Phillip and the red-headed stepchild showed how little chance there is that he'll flip with his tirade at TC. So Rob should be confident that Phillip is still with him and even if he decided not to be, Zappy can't like Phillip. And if there's two TCs coming, there's a not a lot of time for anything to change. So who will Rob target at the second TC?

Julie seems under the radar and she's getting narrator type confessionals so she's probably safe. Steve is the weakest of the remaining Zappy's, so he ought to be safe. That leaves Rooster and David. Rooster could be a physical threat at some challenges, but let's face it - he's not a smart guy. Rob won't be impressed or threatened.

I think David signed his death warrant when he made it clear he could have won the tarp challenge and then also commented on Rob's brilliant move to get rid of Matt again. The first shows Rob that David is a challenge threat, especially puzzles, which is Rob's forte. The second comment shows Rob that David understands the game and therefore is a threat.

So I'm going to go with Mike and David. I admit, I kind of wonder if the order is reversed with Mike winning the first immunity. But I'm going to go with Rob winning the first immunity and Julie winning the second one.

ETA Matt as the RI boot if there is a duel, which I doubt.

All I know is that Phillip has to outlast every man in Zapatera so it can't be Phillip!

Then, we saw pictures of David, Mike and Steve during episode #1's description of RI so I'm guessing it's those 3 going next. Mike was Rob's first target last week and now, without a HII to consider, Mike it is.

Next, Rob doesn't like to see people looking for the HII because, when they don't find it, they'll figure he has it. Who is looking? Not Steve, he's too busy dying in the shelter. Puzzle boy Dave is looking. I guess he'll have time to build sand castles on RI!

Rob wins the first IC. The second? Julie has a strong upper body and is much lighter than the guys. The Omes won't worry about competing just like Casaya during a similar challenge of EI's merge episode. And this time they do get food so it's an easy call!

I'm sticking by FloPo this week!

The first Immunity Challenge is well suited for Rob and the Tribal council vidcap alterations appear to hide the IN around Robs neck. We will assume that Rob wins the first immunity and the Ometepe alliance vote out a Zapatera.

Rob wants to keep his enemies close, so he takes Phillip and Mike with him on the Reward, but a HII clue probably triggers “Idol Paranoia”.

At TC Mike is the logical first boot for Rob and the Ometepe alliance and provides them a 6-4 buffer.

Rob “is pulling all the strings” and as Julie points out, probably after the first TC, “There’s no breaking their loyal shield”. Probably misdirection for what’s to come at the second TC.

Phillip is shown saying “I’ve got to make something happen”, misdirection that someone other than Phillip may be in trouble.

Rob doesn’t find the Idol and is afraid that one of the Zapatera’s may have found it, so Idol Paranoia takes hold.

The second challenge is the hanging endurance challenge, but with a 6-4 advantage some of the Ometepe probably choose food over a chance for Immunity.

JP’s blog comments are interesting…

Give us a sneak peak at what we can look forward to next week!
Next week is one of my favorite dilemmas: Immunity or food? I’m always fascinated by the people who choose to pass up the opportunity for immunity simply so they can have a slice of pizza or a cheeseburger. But we’ve never done this challenge without somebody taking the food. Take a guess who is eating next week?

Jeff suggests that some of those who choose to sit out probably shouldn’t. Phillip is probably among them.

The Zapatera have the most on the line and of them Julie has the most favorable strength to weight ratio, so I will predict her victory in the second IC.

Leading up to the second tribal council, Rob says, “I can’t shake the idol paranoia”. Rob is probably afraid that if the Ometepe’s vote for a Zap with an idol, he is vulnerable or forced to waste his idol…so he ends up deciding, “you have to gamble”.

Rob had Idol Paranoia when he decided it was safer to vote out Matt than a Zap. He still can’t shake the Idol Paranoia, so he will probably avoid an idol bounce by once again voting for an Ometepe rather than risking a vote for the wrong Zap.

Of the Ometepe’s left Phillip is the one who is trying to “make something happen”, so he will be the blindside.

By voting out Phillip Rob keeps his idol, avoids the risk of an idol bounce off of the wrong Zap, and still has a 5-4 advantage…sure one of his Ometepe 5 could flip next week, “but you have to gamble”.

First Immunity: Rob
First TC vote: Mike
Second Immunity: Julie
Second TC vote: Phillip

Rob wins first IC
Mike voted out at first TC
Julie wins second IC; everyone at Ome elects to eat..Jeff's comment about "you'll never guess who chooses to eat",...yeah everyone but he zaps
David voted out at 2nd TC; puzzle boy too much of a threat to Rob.

Boston Rob wins the first Immunity Challenge. He leads the charge against Mike -- and this time, Mike has no Hidden Immunity Idol to help him out. Therefore, Mike's the first to go to Redemption Island.

I think there's a second IC, and Andrea will win this one since she might think she's in some danger. David is the second to go home since I think Boston Rob fears David's puzzle skills and doesn't want to attack one of his own just yet.

I don't know if there will be a duel between Matt and Mike, but if there is one I think Mike will win it.

LAST EDITED ON 04-13-11 AT 00:02 AM (EST)

No RI until next episode -- I just don't see them fitting it in with the time allotted. I'm betting there will be the oxymoronic (not a word, I know) triple-"duel" next episode.

First IC -- Rob wins
First TC -- Mike voted out.

Second IC -- Grant wins
Second TC -- Steve voted out.

eta: Oh, in case anyone didn't notice, like BR, I'm going with tribephyl's picks since he was correct about Matt last time.

I'll take a stab in this game. I'm usually in TAR. I had this strange dream.

I would just like to point out, in case you didn't notice (and it appears you have not) I was right and posted before tribalphyl last week This week our votes differ though it seems more agree with me this week than last week. Tonight will tell.

I think FloPo makes an excellent argument for a Phillip boot this week, and he is my alternate for the 2nd vote. Survivor promos on Facebook even give Phillip a shoutout this week with his memorable moments. I think Phillip has one more week of story.

Get out the new ringleader for the Zaps first, then continue the Pagong by taking out one of their other big male threats...

Forgot immunity picks: Boston Rob for the first, Julie for the 2nd

no duel this week. Julie goes at first TC. Then Ashley at 2nd TC.

Sometimes 'you have to gamble'...and that's where I'm at as well.

After review of the excellent SOTS and all the discussion of the caps and teasers....

I think that's Rob at TC9a wearing the IN. Mike was setup clearly last episode as the next Zap to go. Mike was desperate last week and remains so. While there might be a new clue(due to Ralph using his HII), I don't think that anyone will either find or play one this week. So Mike is gone at the first TC.

Since the second IC is all about endurance both physical and mental(resisting temptation), I don't have a lot of confidence in the spa gals(Natalie and Ashley) denying themselves pleasure knowing they are safe in numbers. While Grant has the strength and Yoga focus to last he too is safe and simply a misdirection. He won't awaken until he is betrayed by Rob and at that point it might be too late. Since historically endurance chals have been dominated by females I'm left with Julie/Andrea. I think this could be Julie's moment to shine with her firefighter training. Julie wins the second IC.

Now's the real tricky part...who goes in the second TC. I think that Rob still considers Phillip under his control and views him as potential goat material...and worth the 'gamble'. And from both last week's footage and this week's promos/PR pics that David has placed himself in Rob's crosshairs. Rob targets at the first hint of betrayal or competition for control. And with David shown sullen in his composure, it's his 'tell' to Rob that he is the remaining biggest threat to him. David is my choice as the second boot.

Both boots go to RI....no time for any chal this week, which provides for a 3 person RI chal next week with 2 going home.

So that's my gamble this week. We'll see if it plays out. Enjoy the show everyone and good luck in your picks.

I believe Mike is the target. Mike is voted out first.

Boston Rob wins 1st Immunity

David is also a target because he is good at puzzles and he likes to tell everyone that.

Julie is worried and works hard and wins the 2nd Immunity. She is not going to give it to one of the men to save them.

I don't think there will be a duel this week.

LAST EDITED ON 04-13-11 AT 04:05 PM (EST)

This is post #32 compiling 31 previous posts; 25 vote, 3 vote change, 3 nonvote. Complicated week but good news, Corvis didn't make any immunity picks! Shh, don't tell him, we'll be able to catch up on him!

RI Duel Loser (most think there won't be a duel but some are voting just in case)
Matt: 6
Matt (or David if he's voted out instead of Mike): 1
Now that's really hedging a bet! KB shouldn't count it if you can't make up your mind, but that's KB's decision.

Boot #1
Mike: 19
Julie: 1

Boot #2
David: 9
Steve: 7
Phillip: 5
Ralph: 3
Ashley: 1

Immunity #1
Rob: 20

Immunity #2
Julie: 8
Grant: 6
Andrea: 4
Natalie: 1
Julie or David: 1

You know, hedging a bet on a duel that likely won't happen, amusing, but this is definitely where you need to pick one and go with it!

Or not, long as we're having fun (and this is a fun week), this is all really for fun. Somebody check my math.

Yes, I did.

"But I'm going to go with Rob winning the first immunity and Julie winning the second one."

I probably should have made it more obvious - sorry...

Of course, what this means is you don't read the explanation in my posts. Just so you know, when you don't read a Corvis post, somewhere a puppy dies.

LOL, you caught me, edited in your immunity picks. KB probably wouldn't have been fooled anyway, darnit! Go check my math.

So... no pimping but really, I have called it two weeks in row.

Wow, you're so awesome!

Congratulations to BelleBook, CT Girl and ajglitch for high scores this week! Well done!

Krautboy