LAST EDITED ON 03-24-11 AT 07:54 PM (EST)

t's interesting, but if you start counting partials it's just stretching IMHO. The shot of David's reaction has Steph's head in it but is not OF Steph.

The whole rush to Ashley last week took us way off course. She was not in the slightest danger, and she's still not. Weighing this theory in just helped to fuel speculation that was very divorced from the real game logic.

I don't say this as a way of pointing blame, as I was way wrong with what tribe went to TC, wrong in believing the promos would play fair, lots of wrong. But I was nearly persuaded by the wave of Ashley fever, when my doubts should have been cast more towards the assumption of which tribe would win. I'm trying to figure out what to focus on and not to put weight on for the next times.

Re editing theories: people across boards were stating that Steph had to make merge because she was edited to flip, and a frog is jumping that's shown after her. She was the most obviously in danger person, and was ignored because the group got hung up on a vidcap spike for Ashley, a tree frog shot, this
RI reaction shot theory, Dreamteamers simulating a F3.

The simple truth was that Zap got rid of Russ, then Krista, and next would be Stephanie. Or Philip if Ometepe went, alt Andrea.

Editing clues are lovely, but it's very easy for them to misdirect us by inserting such things. The game of misdirection is to make us lose sight of logical game dynamics and get hung up on animal imagery, for example. Or a camera roaming a group looking for expressions of shock and awe.

This pre-merge theory was good for five episodes, but a theory that works 5 times out of 7 still leads to being wrong twice. (Or 6 times out of 7 ... )
I think Ashley's going to stick around and will probably be good through the family visit at least -- if Rob's team does dominate. She's not the type who gets dumped as a target once she makes the merge; she most likely doesn't get Pagonged; her fate most likely comes down to how her alliance eats itself, which is not now.

"Sometimes it's not enough to know what things mean, sometimes you have to know what things don't mean." — Bob Dylan