LAST EDITED ON 03-27-11 AT 01:22 PM (EST)
First, OFG wrote:
"I don't like arguing with you michel. I'm trying to reply to your posts, but you make it hard without it turning into much more of a battle than I enjoy."
And then this:
"So you have no other thoughts on my analysis?"
So, which is it: You don't like to dance with me but you still invite me to dance? I was going to let the boots speak for themselves but since you insist, all I have to say is watch out for your toes because here goes!
Let's start with this shot:
In the editing world, that is called the "Money Shot". Now, anyone who knows what goes on out there, knows that the cameramen were told to look for reactions when Jeff was to reveal this unprecedented twist. We also know that they don't have 18 cameras out there so they can't isolate everyone all the time. The number I've read most often, including in Burnett's book, is 6 cameras for these group events. So, each camera had to be focused on small groups of 3 or 4 players.
That's what you got with that picture: A perfect reaction by the guy who would eventually spend most of the pre-merge at RI. Natalie, Andrea, Ashley and Francesca were irrelevant in that shot. The focus was definitely on Matt. That's why they had to give us another shot of Francesca later! Could they have cropped the image to isolate Matt? Probably but why? The shot is perfect!
Let's look at the individual shots: Kristina, Krista and Russell. These were evident spoilers by the editors themselves. It isn't my spoiler, it's what the editors showed us. Kristina, Krista and Russell were pre-merge boots and they were served on a platter. I guess spoilers missed it.
Then, as Pepe noted, let's look at this gem:
(Pepe, this all started when I said astrology has no scientific value.)
I had written:
"With this confessional, Stephanie punched her ticket to the merge…and maybe well beyond"
"Either the editing tells us Stephanie is making the merge and flipping, or the editing tells us that Stephanie is going to be a pre-merge boot. Not both, at least not with accuracy."
This confuses two very different things: My interpretation of the edit and what the editors really did. I love how Pepe put it:
"You were emphatic in several posts...that Stephanie had punched her ticket to the merge, and once this proved to not be true, you tried to fit a half-head into the idea. A spoiling maxim is to never try to make the evidence fit the idea."
I didn't try to fit a half-head of Stephanie into the idea because that half-head was always there! The editors chose to include a shot of Stephanie. Just like all the people that dearly want to spoil the show, I simply hadn't noticed it but it was always there.
As for my interpretation, Stephanie was voted out pre-merge but, again, THIS season it doesn't mean she won't have an influence in the post-merge!!!! We certainly could see both happening.
If Matt beats Stephanie, I would have no problem admitting I was wrong about her story but how can anyone say that the pictures lied: She was booted pre-merge and she was pictured during Jeff's speach. Not Ralph. Not Sorryta, Not Julie. Stephanie.
(As for her post-merge influence, it would be reduced to convincing Matt that Zap were awful people. Not as grand as I imagined but still a post-merge game changing event!!)
If the individual shots cannot be contested, we certainly have a different situation with the combination shots. We do know that Francesca and Stephanie were shown for a reason: Two spoiled boots by the editors. What about Ashley and David? It's possible that the cameras didn't get good isolation shots of Francesca and Stephanie so the editors had to use the ones where Ashley and David were also seen. For all we know, Francesca could have been staring at her feet for most of the time or the sun was in Stephanie's eyes or whatever... Maybe I was too enthusiastic about Ashley being voted out but it doesn't change the fact that all the early boots got their faces shown on screen during the first half of Jeff's speach. 8 were shown and 6 have been voted out with at least one to go.
This brings me to another point and the spoiler I think the eidtors gave us and that I was keeping in my backpocket! Jeff's monologue clearly comes in two parts: First, he tells us about RI and the conditions that the players will face. Then he talks about the duels to get back in the game. The season also plays out in two parts and the duels can be compared to the individual immunity challenges that we have post-merge.
The pre-merge boots that were pictured were done so in disorder. The editors weren't going to hand out every thing like Early did! But Russell was put right in the middle of the speach as if to show that his boot would be the highlight of the pre-merge.
Why do I only count Francesca, Matt, Russell, Kristina, Krista, Stephanie, David and Ashley? Because they were shown during the first part of the speach. When Jeff talked about the duels and returning to the game, we are safe to assume he was talking about the post-merge. I think the editors told us that Steve and Mike will be the first POST-merge boots!