This has been really fun to watch.

Right now, I think Eric's only shot is to blitzkrieg through Sophie, taking out her largest two armies and hope Matt doesn't follow him up through Central America before he can rebuild.

If Sophie didn't have Stephen to keep the pressure off her West coast, she'd be in trouble. Ian is in no position to threaten her and Eric seems lost on a strategy. If he does attack, she'll need some good rolls to hold her territories. I always enjoy trying to get and hold North America early, if possible. But right now it looks like it might fatally exhaust whoever finally gets it.

Matt needs to get a non-aggression pact with Cochran so he can grab South America and be done with it. He then needs to be ready to pounce on the Eric or Cochran, whenever a chance opens up.

Trying to hold Europe early is the second most foolish strategy to take and Ian should know better. Holding at the end of a turn does you no good and it is too easy for anyone to play a spoiler. He has to convince Cochran to not put up a fight with him taking Western Europe. If I were him, I'd offer to let him have free reign in Asia for the chance to take Western Europe without retribution. Even then, though, Stephen is about to wash through Europe. Ian is toast. His only hope is to manage a retreat through North America with several favorable rolls.

Cochran has the second best position right now. Lots of options with few immediate pitfalls. Waiting for Matt to move in South America, and then follow him through with a stronger army. With little threat from Stephen and not much of a chance of Matt trying to come across without a decent numbers advantage, he could harass Ian with a decent chance at an early conquer and card grab. Or he could take Ian up on his offer and nibble at Stephen's Asian empire. Although that would be one of the most colossal blunders, starting a land war in Asia.

Stephen is in control of his own fate right now. He has a good defense of Australia. Even though Asia is almost impossible to grab early, he's had some luck and some help in setting up the continent grab. He should hope Sophie is too preoccupied with Eric to see him coming to get Kamchatka in about 2-3 turns. Cochran can defend Africa fairly well, but can't attack with much certainty. And Ian is in a mess, pressured on three sides, with Stephen bringing the heaviest of those burdens. He needs to keep his alliance going as long as possible to gain a surer footing in Asia, but his biggest mistake right now is favoring Sophie over Cochran. He's doing more for her than she is for him. Cochran is his biggest threat, and should be kept an ally until he can go into a battle with better than even odds. Even if she wanted to, Sophie couldn't do much damage in Asia to him. Certainly nothing he couldn't repair in a single turn.

Cards won't come into play for another round or two. Stephen and Cochran should horde as long as possible, but I predict everyone else will play a set as soon as possible. This will change a few finish places, but it won't change the final results.

Chances of winning (out of 100% possible) after the second round:

Ian ---------- 12%
Eric -----------18%
Matt-----------20%
Sophie-----------34%
Cochran -----------55%
Stephen ---------72%

Predicted Finish order:
1. Stephen
2. Cochran
3. Matt
4. Ian
5. Sophie
6. Eric

Tebow Time is over. We prefer to win games in the 1st quarter.
Trade managed by GM Agman, 2012