Hey guys - last race is a flat mile w/ two turns. I think Crafty will go 1st, Big Wags, second and then who knows but I think Nigel and Shoot Yeah ar neck/neck at 3/4, and even w/ the turf-to-dirt factor I think Nigel has more upside. I mean these race horses are pretty piss poor and they all run at different tracks and levels and distances so, for ME, I have to almost depend solely on Beyer figs (and some class ratings). So here goes.

1. Crafty Value- has been rounding in to form nicely, should be a factor in the pace scenario, has been working well and least looks sharp..

2. Nigel No Mates - relatively classy horse, maybe the fastest, too, can get the distance but the dirt factor is an unknown.. should be OK, though, if he can save some ground and tuck in... last two route efforts on the turf were probably both good enough to win vs these types... ... seems like he's working OK, though... and has worked out on the dirt for years...

3. Shoot Yeah - MILER - VERY well suited to final race as far as distance AND pace style/scenario.. reasonably well bred horse (storm cat gran-sire), posted Beyers in the mid-60s last three efforts (all at a Mile) and if he can stay close to the pace and get something to run at from three or four back, this guy might put something big together... would want to see a nice post position to break from and speed to the inside... has some upside.

3. Big Wagner - best race was two back loose on the lead and on the turf so that's not a great indicator (throw it out and try re-hanidcapping this guy)... got outbroke on the show by NNM, but that's probably even a worse indicator... has been working OK, looks like a miler, would definitely want to see this guy near the lead and needs a clean trip. Feel like this guy needs to be loose on the lead to win and with Kool Smoke and possibly some other speed types in there - its just aint going to happen...

5. AvenueofKnowledge - if he runs back to his last effort he could be in the mix. If the pace is hasty and he can lay back he might have something run at... would have to take a nice step forward from his last race, though... again would need some things to bounce his way to threaten..

6. Kool Smoke - $ leader, another reasonably well bred horse Will probably benefit from the Santa Anita dirt course... but just doesn't seem to want to go a mile, most likely scenario has this guy on the lead, which is not a bad place to be... but there are plenty of presser types that I don't think will let him get away with much... could hit the board as he's being passed by horses at the wire...