TxScubadiver made a beautiful analysis at Sucks (Spoilers forum) that I want to share over here. (This is the link where I quoted the post and includes my thoughts on the post).http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/sreply/8212925/S24-E7-Title-The-Beauty-in-a-Merge-
The essence of his idea of how the vote will go is:
NuSalani believes Alicia may well have the idol.
NuSalani's best move is to stick together at the moment, while nuManono is a fractured tribe (2-2-1, Leif's indecisiveness creates a swing dynamic).
Greg and Alicia vote Christina.
Jonas, Leif, and Christina vote Alicia.
(I would say, Leif votes whatever he decides but can't be counted on.)
nuSalani splits its six votes and puts 3 each on Greg and Alicia.
If Alicia plays the idol (they think she has), Greg goes.
If not, Alicia goes.
Win-win.
Alicia has no idol, so she goes.
I like it, although if there is a second idol and it is found, then someone may be in a position to know that Alicia doesn't have one. See, I don't think Jeff is going to tell them for sure if it's hidden or not, because he tried to stir up the suspicion at TC.
Only Kim and Chelsea know of Kim's idol, so if Chelsea is part of finding a replacement idol, Chelsea will know Alicia doesn't have it. However, if anyone but Chelsea and Kim finds it, they aren't going to be entirely sure which idol it is.