The Etch-a-Sketch factor...the paraphrasing of a current political idiom into a useful Survivor analysis tool.
<shake shake shake, shake your booty....>

'The Beauty in a Merge'....is that it allows a resetting of the alliances(or in this teaser-text case, 'allegiances'....a peculiarly more formal terminology that might ID the speaker).

So if a Merge allows the possibility of a reset of the alliances....does it happen in E7? And if so who might shift? Ignoring the Immunity factor for a moment, how would that affect the boot selection?

As laid out by others above...we have multiple overlapping alliances with so many cast fingers in multiple pots that I feel a strange need for a Venn Diagram to adequately chart the full layout...lol.

Recapping for ref via FloPo's prior breakdown(ty FloPo)....
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1. Original Manono - Troyzan, Jonas, Gregzan, Leif, Jay, Michael (Michael low man on the totem pole)
2. Original Salani - Sabrina, Kim, Chelsea, Kat, Alicia, Christina. Christina was on the outs. Alicia on the outs, whether she knows it or not.
3. Misfits: Leif, Gregzan, Jonas, Troyzan, Jay
4. Core original Salani: Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kat, Alicia
5. nuSalani: Sabrina, Kim, Chelsea, Kat, Jay, Troyzan, Michael
6. nuManono: Gregzan, Leif, Jonas, Christina, Alicia
7. NuSalani core: Kim, Jay, Troyzan, Chelsea

Now, just going by the numbers here's how it goes...

Those in 4 different alliances: Troyzan, Jay, Kim, Chelsea

Those in 3 different alliances: Leif, Gregzan, Jonas, Sabrina, Kat, Alicia

Those in 2 different alliances: Michael, Christina
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My thoughts...
While a complete resetting of alliances seems unlikely, a certain amount of scrambling is to be expected. And in fact Kim/Chelsea/Troy/Jay pretty much did a preemptive etch-a-sketch re-shake with the Merge very much in mind.

The big question is if a player, particularly a controlling player like Kim has multiple alliances in motion, which one do they go with as their boot instrument of choice. Do they hold their primary alliance in reserve to keep it stealth until absolutely necessary? Or do they put the hammer down now and try to distance themselves(and their alliance) from the crowd when everyone is scrambling trying to figure things out?

Or do they play the self indulgent Colton game of maniulating players just for the sake of it b/c it's more fun? That of course puts at risk the ultimate goal of winning, to which eventually Colton would have likely fallen short.

I'm thinking that as seemingly game-smart as Kim(and Chelsea) appear to be, they might use the Female alliance as their booting tool to serve their NuSalani Core4 alliance(Kim/Chelsea/Troy/Jay). The reason I think that alliance will prevail is b/c it advantages each of those members equally. Each thinks they will have a better shot at the endgame with strong members to succeed individually in chals and thus better control the boot. While the IN only protects one member it can be 'gifted' at a last minute TC scramble to confuse/disrupt a coup d'etat....thus there is some element of umbrella protection there.

But ultimately it is in the NuSalani Core4's best interest to keep their appearance stealth as long as possible. It appears though that Alicia at the least is aware of the potential via a Kim/Chelsea hookup(as per Colton interview). So their cover may soon be blown. But one episode at a time.

The real victim in all this will be Sabrina who loses out bigtime on her endgame through no fault of her own. And while Michael is as equally dangerous, his alliance choices have been limited since before the Merge. The wildcard that I see is Jonas. He has not been a threat...barely in one alliance after another. His 'allegiances' have been tepid at best. Does he get 'used' by one of the power alliances surely to emerge? And if so can he use his 'malleability' to 'use' them right back for longevity?

Lastly we have the 'goat factor'. Who's this season's goat? While Greg is the obvious choice...seemingly placing himself purposefully in position for that very role, we also have Kat, Leif and Alicia as possibles. Kat as the ingenue, Leif as the misfit and Alicia as the villain....and including in this analysis..Greg as the grumpy Uncle who should be in the basement. Which one do you chose?...lol.

So thereyago...some thoughts to ponder as we attempt to figure out which alliance will control the boot and why.

Your thoughts?