I have enjoyed reading everyone's speculation since the beginning of S4, but it now seems many of you expect total misdirection all the time. (Therefore, I guess EPMB has done his job well!)

I realize I'm relatively new here, but I believe how the F5 will play out is rather simple and logical. While I completely understand EPMB edits the shows at times to deceive us, there is just too much evidence from previous episodes to indicate the following:

"Kathy is torn when she finds a potentially pivotal decision before her."

I hope we can all agree the "pivotal" decision is to choose between N/P or S/V.

I know some of you believe Kathy may have a "secret alliance" with V and/or S, but we know this:
1.) We can not deny Kathy feels a debt to N/P for taking her through the merge. (IMO Kathy truly believed N/P would have preferred Gina. However, at that time, N/P probably believed the old Rotu alliance would be there best bet.)
2.) Kathy has ALWAYS voted with N/P except for Ep7 when she promised Rob she would not vote for him, and she had a message to send to Zoe.
3.) Kathy has never displayed any type of alliance with S/V or vice versa EXCEPT for the time Sean and Kathy first discussed axing the Rotu4. HOWEVER, at that time they were both desperate, and knew they would be some of the first to go (from what happened at the coconut chopping challenge).

Although, Kathy has a stronger "alliance" with N/P than S/V for the reasons stated above, it is also obvious that she views N/P as the bigger threat to win the jury votes (from what she discussed with her son and the General last week).

IMO, Kathy will have to decide whether to stick with the stronger immunity threats (S/V), or the stronger jury vote threats (N/P). Will she do the "right" thing, and stick with N/P since they "saved" her through the merge /OR/ will she do the "game player" thing and knock out N or P to eliminate the competition?

It all depends on who wins the IC. (See below.)

"While one castaway celebrates jubilantly, Paschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates."

This is the key. I have to believe the "one castaway" that "celebrates jubilantly" is the IC winner. I also believe, this is a clue that Pappy does NOT win IC since he now has "an important determination about two tribemates."

Why would he have to determine between two if he won the IC? If he DID give up the IN, (which would be insane at this point,) there is only one person he would possibly give it to, right? It's a moot point, however, since he would NOT give it up!!

Paschal obviously has no "determination" to make with Neleh. Therefore, it must be between S/V/K. What "determination" would he need to make between the potential pairs:
A.) K/S - If he votes Sean, he loses the bond/trust they once had. If he votes Kathy, he loses possible "insurance" to almost guarantee a F3.
B.) K/V - See above regarding a vote for Kathy, and I can't think of a good reason why he would feel threatened choosing V other than he might upset Sean. (With K/N on his side, that wouldn't concern him too much.)
C.) S/V - If he votes either one, he is sure to alienate the other.

Pappy is known to have "played the game with integrity". Therefore, I believe his "determination" will be strictly based on who he feels is the least "deserving" to win the game. IMO, that will be between S/V, and I think he will lean towards V based on his previous bond with Sean, and what I previously discussed HERE.

"Tensions arise at an uncomfortable campfire meeting and erupt the next night at Tribal Council."

I believe is pretty obvious from the video previews this "tension" is during a conversation S/V have with P/N at the campfire. However, I'm intrigued that this "erupts the next night at TC." IMO, S is the only one who would "erupt" at TC. It MUST be during the JP questions, and (based on previous comments by Sean) it's probably related to the African American factor. It also indicates to me, Sean will feel threatened at TC, and we have seen when that is the case (i.e. Sean in Ep8 and the General in Ep9) that person usually does NOT get booted.

"A twelfth castaway is voted out, determining the Final Four."

Based on the above, and what I have discussed at this THREAD, I believe it will all come down to this:

If N or P win IC, then V is gone.

If K/S or V win IC, then P is gone.