URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID2
Thread Number: 2796
[ Go back to previous page ]
Original Message
"SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-10-02 at 08:25 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-10-02 AT 08:28 AM (EST)

I don't see it posted, so here it is:

Next Week On Survivor
Kathy is torn when she finds a potentially pivotal decision before her.
While one castaway celebrates jubilantly, Paschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates.
Tensions arise at an uncomfortable campfire meeting and erupt the next night at Tribal Council.
A twelfth castaway is voted out, determining the Final Four.

And the poll question:

Who do you think Kathy should try to ally herself with?

Neleh and Paschal
Sean and Vecepia
Neleh and Vecepia

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-10-02 at 09:03 AM
Dawg's $0.02 on this:

Kathy is torn when she finds a potentially pivotal decision before her.

Duh!

While one castaway celebrates jubilantly, Paschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates.

IMHO, this is an important clue to the IC winner! It may be that the decision was to dump Kathy at this point and she wins immunity. So Paschal has to decide between dumping Sean or Neleh. Or he may be faced with the knowledge of a 3-2 dumping of Neleh. There are, of course, other possibilities here.

Tensions arise at an uncomfortable campfire meeting and erupt the next night at Tribal Council.
A twelfth castaway is voted out, determining the Final Four.

This may be a bit embellished and trying to create more drama than is there, but see my above comments, which apply here, also. I can see Neleh or Sean being upset at getting waxed.

Poll question: I think the "Vee and Neleh" is very much a "Hollow", red-herring, misdirectional attempt by MB & Co. in the same vein as S-III's "All-Female Alliance". It didn't work then, there is no reason to think it works now.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SmokeWilliams on 05-10-02 at 09:10 AM
I can see Neleh or Sean being upset at getting waxed.

I definetly agree. Sean is pretty much always upset, and did you see the look on Neleh's face after her tikki was covered last nite? Man was she bitter. She was hugging Vee (sort of) and then Sean came in and grabbed them both. She wasn't too pleased. So if she is gonna be kicked out, she most likely won't be her wide eyed bubbly self.

SmokeWilliams

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-10-02 at 09:15 AM
I also noted Neleh's look at Tribal Council when others were talking about her, at Jiffy's prodding. When Sean (I think) started talking about her in not QUITE a nice fashion, Neleh had daggers coming out of her eyes. Some sweetheart!

But Neleh couldn't compare to the daggers Tammy's eyes were flashing.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by LilNik8 on 05-10-02 at 09:43 PM

>did you see the look
>on Neleh's face after her
>tikki was covered last nite?
> Man was she bitter.
> She was hugging Vee
>(sort of) and then Sean
>came in and grabbed them
>both. She wasn't too
>pleased. So if she
>is gonna be kicked out,
>she most likely won't be
>her wide eyed bubbly self.
>
>
>SmokeWilliams


I noticed that too! She was mad that she lost and mad that Vee was excited about finally winning.

*~*Nicole*~*

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by Fast Eddie on 05-10-02 at 09:22 AM
>Poll question: I think the
>"Vee and Neleh" is very
>much a "Hollow", red-herring, misdirectional
>attempt by MB & Co.
>in the same vein as
>S-III's "All-Female Alliance". It
>didn't work then, there is
>no reason to think it
>works now.

I agree. It really offends me when I see people talking about game decisions based on gender, age, race, religion, and other such discriminations that should not be part of civilized society. This "girl-power" thing keeps coming up (and was pushed very heavily on No Boundaries). To their great credit, when it comes time to make a decision, the women have always acted based on legitimate game strategies.

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by Loree on 05-10-02 at 03:08 PM
Okay Pappy adores Neleh and talks about her all the time. I wonder if he hears Sean and Vee or Sean and Kathy talking about Neleh and realizes she is not liked and may be the next bootee. That would make Pappy less than pleased and would probably change his opinion of whoever is talking bad about his little princess. It could also change who he and Neleh vote for. Neleh is definitely not the little sweetheart that Pappy thinks she is. Her body language and expressions at TC say it all. I wouldn't put it past her to use Pappy to get further in the game.
"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by corcam on 05-10-02 at 05:22 PM
Kathy is torn when she finds a potentially pivotal decision before her.

Duh!

Ditto for me on that, Kathy would have a hard time figuring ANYTHINGout

While one castaway celebrates jubilantly, Paschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates.
Tensions arise at an uncomfortable campfire meeting and erupt the next night at Tribal Council.
A twelfth castaway is voted out, determining the Final Four.

Here I think these 2 sentences should be linked together.

It almost sounds like they are saying Kathy is the winner which makes me wanna gag and that is more than likely the red herring in the sentence.
This is probably the order in which it occured.

Tensions arise at an uncomfortable campfire meetingand thenPaschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates.and thenand erupts the next night at Tribal Council.
A twelfth castaway is voted out, determining the Final Four.

I hardly see anyone dancing around in the background jubliantly while of all people Paschal is upset.

Of course you could scrap what I said to sh** and the 4 could be sitting around arguing and the dumb @ss Kathy could be dancing around in the background hehe.

I am still thinking that it possibly comes down to Paschal winning immunity and giving it to Neleh, which no one will want to vote for him so they either vote out Sean or Kathy
-or-
Paschal or Kathy has won and it comes down to Neleh and Sean, and they decide who goes and who stays.

could be wrong could be rightLOL



"Kathy and Vee"
Posted by NorthOfBoston on 05-10-02 at 09:39 AM
I wasn't sure where to post this since it doesn't really need a post of its own, so I'll throw it out here:

Everyone is making comments about how Kathy needs to eliminate Vee as her competition. Did anyone else notice that Vee was wearing one of Kathy's earrings at Tribal Council? She was not wearing it in the IC, just at TC. Check the tape and you'll see it: Kathy bobbing her head with only 1 earring on her left ear, then a shot of Vee with the same earring in HER left ear. Is this the unseen alliance? I don't know how this alliance would play out, since I am convinced that no matter what race card Sean is throwing out, he and Vee are a team. HOWEVER, wouldn't the best choice to take to the final two, for Kathy, be Vecepia? Maybe we are led to believe that Kathy is in turmoil over who she is going to choose to align with, but really she is set on picking Sean & Vee, and thus Neleh is out. I just keep thinking about what Tina said about watching who sits next to who at TC... Kathy and Vee were close and had that earring thing going on.

Just a shot in the wind

"RE: Kathy and Vee"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-10-02 at 09:48 AM
NOB, this makes GREAT sense!

It may not be the true secret alliance, but let me throw in some things to support it as a possibility:

1) When Tammy and Robert tried to form an alliance to save themselves, they went to Vee... and she rejected them! Tammy said later that they should've asked Sean, and that might or might not be a red herring, but VEE has made a solid alliance with someone and has stuck with it.

2) We all know that it really takes a grouping of THREE, not TWO, to get to the end. Right now we have two groups of TWO and one Kathy (a group in herself ). We've assumed S/V and P/N as the groups, BUT... what if Kathy has an alliance with Vee? Maybe they're thinking they can bring Sean along, then dump him and go to the final two. But a cog in the works (as was shown on the preview last night) is if Sean and Paschal have a secret alliance, planning to take either Neleh or Vee...

So what you have put forth is certainly one of the possibilites we'll be looking at this week.


"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: Kathy and Vee"
Posted by zzz on 05-10-02 at 10:57 AM
I don't think we can make too much of these kind of things. Keep in mind that the final 5 have basically been in an alliance together to get rid of the Rotu 4 and all have become friends. I think Kathy thinks she is friends with V but also friends with S, P and N. This group has been very careful NOT to discuss alliances. All of the alliances among these 5 have basically been unspoken, except for the initial decision to take out John (which of course has led to the "pagonging" of the Rotu 4).
"Things not sitting well with me..."
Posted by Bebo on 05-10-02 at 10:55 AM
other than breakfast.

* Why are they shoving the P/N down our throats? It has been so firmly established during the editing of the entire show, but it is the hot topic of conversation. Is this to hide a secret alliance that one of them has, or is it to misdirect us to the point that one of them ultimately betrays the other?

* With all the talk about Neleh during TC, I find it hard to believe that she just sits quietly with Paschal and waits to see which decision Kathy makes. We've only seen her strategize with Paschal.

* Robert called Vee a player. As already pointed out on this thresd, she was the one Tammy approached, not Sean. We do know she has voted separately from Sean and that she was approached by the Rotu 4.

* We have seen nothing of Paschal or Vee's strategies. Is this because they are just riding other's coattails and have no strategy, or because one of them is the key to the hidden alliance?

I'm still trying to work through some of these thoughts in my head, but I wanted to throw them out to get input.

I haven't been called a "snot" since...oh...yesterday!

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

"RE: Things not sitting well with me..."
Posted by steppingrazor42 on 05-10-02 at 11:56 AM
I agree with everything you have said......

One thing I noticed that keeps coming up is what a strong player Paschal is, Sean and Kathy both have expressed Neleh riding HIS coat tails. Last night Kathy said to the General that Paschal was a stronger force than Neleh and he should be axed before her.

I will be very surprised is either N or P screw eachother over. I think Vee is the only one of the seemingly 2 tight alliances, S/V and N/P, that will jump ship....she's shown us that she can and will. I don't know what Sean is thinking...will he try to sway Kathy to vote with them? My gut feeling is Kathy will stick to old tribal lines to save face with the jury and hope for an immunity win at the F3 against N/P. I just don't think Sean has a level enough head for the end game. Plus I can't wait to hear his jury questions for the F2.

"RE: Things not sitting well with me..."
Posted by Bebo on 05-10-02 at 12:53 PM
Last night Kathy said to the General that Paschal was a stronger force than Neleh and he should be axed before her.

And she told her son that Paschal was her "adversary".

We have not been shown any strategizing on his part. When John was voted out, first Kathy, then neleH, were the ones shown explaining the reasoning to him. Then in the recrap we're shown Sean explaining about the five.

Why, then, would Paschal be considered an adversary? Based on what we've been shown, the only reason I can think of is that he's won challenges and neleH hasn't, so he would be a bigger threat to Kathy in the final IC.

I haven't been called a "snot" since...oh...yesterday!

'Canes Rock! Beat Canada!

"RE: Things not sitting well with me..."
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-10-02 at 01:04 PM
Bebo,
I think what Kathy meant about Paschal is that he is the greatest threat to win the game, and is her "adversary" to winning in that respect.

Paschal has won two food reward challenges (and winning the first directly contributed to winning the second). He is extremely popular with EVERYONE... I don't see anybody raking HIM over the coals in confessionals or exit interviews. If Paschal makes it to the Final 2, I'd say he wins by at least a 5-2, if not 6-1 majority (I can see John not voting for him, but that's about it).

Also, in Kathy's conversations with the General, she pointed out that Paschal would realize they were playing the game and wouldn't hold a grudge against them if they voted him out. Another sign of their awareness of what a realistic and decent person he is.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: Things not sitting well with me..."
Posted by Hobbs of Mich on 05-10-02 at 01:01 PM
I think the reason why P/N have been shovel down our throats is because it's P who wins the IC the week and then gives it to N at TC. Another reason why to tell us about giving the imunity away and P is the only one who would give it away. So if you take N out of the vote....then what....Vote P....no way Sean and Vee would do that so it might finally be Kathy with all her face time and trying to figure out how to win.
"Trust and the Final Alliances"
Posted by PagongRatEater on 05-10-02 at 11:31 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-10-02 AT 11:31 AM (EST)

Trust has been a huge factor in who stays and who goes in this game. Once you have proven yourself untrustworthy (Gabe, Zoe, Brandon, Kelly W.) you become a target in this game. I think that all the misdirection and subterfuge regarding sub-alliances, cross-alliances and double secret relationships is unlikely speculation. Kathy is the X-factor and while MB is trying to make it seem otherwise, she is going to have to choose S/V or P/N.

Paschal and Neleh - have been together since the beginning of the game, have a STRONG religious bond and moral orientation, Paschal's wife said he played with integrity - indicating he doesn't betray Neleh, the "family" bond. There is NO WAY that these two are going to break up unless forced to.

Sean and Vee - both have been underdogs through the whole game, both have been together the whole time, they DO have a shared experience as African American's (as Sean said in Episode 1, they even communicate telepathically). Vee has shown a tendency to wander in her alliegences to stay in the game longer, but given the unbreakable IMO nature of the P/N bond is really not going to have any pratical option, but to stick with Sean.

So let's assume that Kathy decides to allign with S/V (the smart move at this point, but not the one I think she is going to make). That probably means that Neleh is gone. So what happens next? Do S/P end up teaming against V/K? I don't think so. I think that in the end it is going to come down to TRUST. There is the opportunity to throw overboard the person that you have been playing the game with since day 1 and making a new alliance, but do you really trust you new allies more than your current one? Do you KNOW that they will keep you around once your shield has been eliminated? I think at this point in the game everyone is reconsidering their end-game strategy, but in the end they will go with the person they trust the most and not try a rsiky new strategy with no certainty in results. There is no certain benefit to S/V/P/N changing sides at this point in the game, they all have final two partners - now we just wait to see where Kathy goes.

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by Kokoro on 05-10-02 at 12:28 PM
I didn't notice any spec on this so here goes:

~Kathy~ has the decision making power!
~Kathy~ is strategizing more than anyone!
~Kathy~ controls the game!
Who will ~Kathy~ choose?

Honestly, isn't Kathy's power angle being shoved right in our faces (both in the promo and on the website snippets/poll)? Hrmm....what if it doesn't matter who Kathy chooses?

Yes, that means Kathy could very well go next week 4-1.

-----------------------------------
Now let us never speak of S3 again.

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by PagongRatEater on 05-10-02 at 12:38 PM
It is a very good thought and definitely the easy way out for P/N/S/V, but then neither has the advantage going into the final four and we STILL don't know how ties are broken. I think that Kathy will be wooed by both alliances and she is smart enough to figure out that she must get some allies this week. I think that if she can get to the final three she WILL win the likely endurance IC and move on to the Final two.

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-10-02 at 12:41 PM
This is why I'm suspicious that Kathy wins immunity. It looks like it WAS going to be a 4-1 Kathy-booting (still might be), but the line about Paschal having to make a decision has me wondering if he now has to choose to dump Neleh and ally with Kathy and Sean, or stick with Neleh and likely be gone 4th.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"Kathy on the chopping block"
Posted by Cathy the Canadian on 05-10-02 at 03:58 PM
I agree 100% Kokoro, the smartest thing P/N/S/V can do now is join together to vote Kathy out. She has too much power otherwise, as niether twosome can really trust her at this point. She could totally go either way, and they both know that, so they should definately knock her off.
"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by Strider on 05-10-02 at 04:52 PM
I'm with you, Kokoro. While I do not agree that it would be N/P/S/V's best strategy to vote out Kathy, that certainly doesn't mean it won't happen.

Besides emphasising that Kathy has the power, the previews also have us focusing on the alliances N/P versus S/V. We are being led to believe that this is all about who Kathy will side with. My guess at this early stage is that MB will have us wavering back and forth the whole show (Who will Kathy choose? I can't tell! The suspense!), when the real surprise will be that everyone votes her out.

--"I'd fill your mouth with a sock so you'd shut the hell up." -- Tara, Amazing Race.

"Kathy is vulnerable"
Posted by Krautboy on 05-11-02 at 04:15 AM

Yes Kokoro, the previews, the CBS Opinion Poll, last weeks show, all show Kathy trying to play the game, and paint a picture of her in a pivotal position, in control of the game.

As we saw again last week, “Strategies revealed do not Succeed”. Kathy’s plan to form an alliance with Robert, Sean and Vee to get rid of Neleh was revealed to us and did not succeed.

This week her plan is to choose between S/V and P/N. The previews have been edited to show S/V vs. P/N. The CBS Opinion Poll gives the impression that Kathy is in control and in a position to select the alliance of her choice...…”Strategies revealed do not Succeed”.

A Kathy goes this week scenario could play out like this...

We may see the religious vote that JP talked about. Sean, Vee, Neleh and Paschal are the four most religious. They may well vote against Kathy setting up the long anticipated tie breaker.

Paschal is “…less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates”, because he finds out that Kathy and Robert plotted against him and Neleh. This cause him to “ do the right thing” and play with integrity, rather than aligning with Kathy and assuring himself a Final 3, and vote against Kathy instead.

Kathy backed into a corner may try to make Sean and Vee “the scapegoats” for planning the alliance against Paschal and Neleh. This plan may backfire, when Sean and Vee retaliate and vote out Kathy.

The tensions, that Kathy creates by playing one side against the other , “erupt at Tribal Council” as Kathy’s plans for yet another alliance fall apart when she is voted out.

A scenario where Kathy goes this week sets up the long anticipated tie breaker of Sean/Vee vs. Paschal/Neleh.

Paschal knows that it will be a 2-2 tie vote and decides to give Neleh the IN so that it is Paschal who faces off in the tiebreaker.

Krautboy

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by vulcan on 05-10-02 at 02:51 PM
I don't know why maybe evem a little speculation as to the point but im drawing on previous shows for answers Sean is being edited as a #3 in the same ilk as lex rudy and keith before him neleh appears to be edited as the ultimate survivor and the fact that it is a final four and not a final three tells me that the two major alliances stick together and kathy goes hence no obvious #4 boot. even after all this editiong and what not Sean is still my pick. and could the decision that pappy makes be the decision to take sean and vee to the final four.

The roach is back bashers bash away

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by MatineeIdol on 05-10-02 at 03:04 PM
........................................

(just adding all the periods that Vulcan forgot!)

I think I have a headache now.

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by Lancerdude74 on 05-10-02 at 04:39 PM
I really have a hard time believing that Paschal and Neleh would vote Kathy out and go with Sean and Vee into the final four. I believe that Kathy does have a very strong bond with Neleh and Paschal and it just hasn't been shown. Why else would P/N have voted out Gina when they both really liked her and kept Kathy. If they kept Kathy over Gina, I definitely think they would keep her over Vee or even Sean. Although there is the possibility that Kathy would switch to Sean and Vee, I think that she will stay with Neleh and Paschal, because that will be her best way to win the game IMO. I think the original Rotu 4 would feel more betrayed by P/N and would vote for Kathy, and also have a lot of respect for her making it as far as she did without the security of a "real" alliance.
"RE: Vecepia the Traitor"
Posted by spacey on 05-10-02 at 10:01 PM
Regarding: "Paschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates"

I just can help but think that the two tribe mates are Kathy and Sean.

Vecepia has shown that she is not above betraying her fellow survivors. She turned on Rob Father when she thought she could go farther with the alliance of four and than just as quickly betrayed them when she saw her chance with Paschal, Neleh and Kathy. I think she now sees her chance to make it to the final three by betraying Sean.

Paschal is less than pleased with Sean and Kathy because Vecepia has told them of Kathy and Sean's plans to boot Neleh hoping Paschal and Neleh replace Kathy with her.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

"Additional Discussion..."
Posted by IceCat on 05-11-02 at 06:06 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-11-02 AT 06:12 AM (EST)

To keep things uncluttered, these threads:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2804.shtml

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2803.shtml

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2795.shtml

were locked as they contained discussion on the topics that are being discussed in this thread. They contain some additional speculation on which pair Kathy will seek to support.

<Edited to add another link>

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by I_AM_HE on 05-11-02 at 08:43 AM
heh, its funny, eeryone is talking about Paschal and Kathy, or Kathy and Sean, or Paschal and Sean, but almost no one is mentioning Vee. Someone pointed out Kathy and Vee are sharing earrings...and I'd like to throw out that we have seen a LOT of shots of Paschal and Vee together, in the previews and on the episodes. Not necessarily saying anything at all, but they seem very close

That said, I think it would be very foolish for PN to dump Kathy unless they are absolutely CERTAIN she is going to betray them. And if PN approach SV, SV should know its because PN are sure that Kathy is with them- in which case it also makes no sense for SV to ote out Kathy. I just can't see Kathy going now. She has been edited as the winner, and for her to go now would make for a very anticlimactic final 4. The only way I see Kathy OR Paschal going this week is if Paschal wins and gives away immunity...

Which gives me a thought- we've speculated on Paschal giving immunity to Neleh...What if he gave it to KATHY as a sign of good faith? I think that would make it impossible for Kathy to vote against her old allies and make her willing to take it to the Final 3 with them.

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SMGLover on 05-11-02 at 12:00 PM
When Kathy said, "Rob has to be cut(or somethign like that), but Neleh and Pappy have to be severed". Now it may be just me, but what makes Neleh/Paschal alliance different than Sean/Vee alliance. Atleast up until next episode, the Sean/Vee alliance or whatever it is they have, isnt being made a big thing on the show. I find it weird that Kathy wouldnt include Sean/Vee, as much as Neleh/Paschal. Why cant Vee/Sean be severed also? They obviously both are a strong alliance, but what makes Kathy want to sever Neleh/Paschal so much? I would think that Kathy would want to separate V/S, if she goes with her old tribal roots. But it looks like the Sean/Vee connection will be heavily discussed next episode.
"EPMB has many of you GRASPING FOR STRAWS"
Posted by Napalm in the Morning on 05-11-02 at 01:35 PM
I have enjoyed reading everyone's speculation since the beginning of S4, but it now seems many of you expect total misdirection all the time. (Therefore, I guess EPMB has done his job well!)

I realize I'm relatively new here, but I believe how the F5 will play out is rather simple and logical. While I completely understand EPMB edits the shows at times to deceive us, there is just too much evidence from previous episodes to indicate the following:

"Kathy is torn when she finds a potentially pivotal decision before her."

I hope we can all agree the "pivotal" decision is to choose between N/P or S/V.

I know some of you believe Kathy may have a "secret alliance" with V and/or S, but we know this:
1.) We can not deny Kathy feels a debt to N/P for taking her through the merge. (IMO Kathy truly believed N/P would have preferred Gina. However, at that time, N/P probably believed the old Rotu alliance would be there best bet.)
2.) Kathy has ALWAYS voted with N/P except for Ep7 when she promised Rob she would not vote for him, and she had a message to send to Zoe.
3.) Kathy has never displayed any type of alliance with S/V or vice versa EXCEPT for the time Sean and Kathy first discussed axing the Rotu4. HOWEVER, at that time they were both desperate, and knew they would be some of the first to go (from what happened at the coconut chopping challenge).

Although, Kathy has a stronger "alliance" with N/P than S/V for the reasons stated above, it is also obvious that she views N/P as the bigger threat to win the jury votes (from what she discussed with her son and the General last week).

IMO, Kathy will have to decide whether to stick with the stronger immunity threats (S/V), or the stronger jury vote threats (N/P). Will she do the "right" thing, and stick with N/P since they "saved" her through the merge /OR/ will she do the "game player" thing and knock out N or P to eliminate the competition?

It all depends on who wins the IC. (See below.)

"While one castaway celebrates jubilantly, Paschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates."

This is the key. I have to believe the "one castaway" that "celebrates jubilantly" is the IC winner. I also believe, this is a clue that Pappy does NOT win IC since he now has "an important determination about two tribemates."

Why would he have to determine between two if he won the IC? If he DID give up the IN, (which would be insane at this point,) there is only one person he would possibly give it to, right? It's a moot point, however, since he would NOT give it up!!

Paschal obviously has no "determination" to make with Neleh. Therefore, it must be between S/V/K. What "determination" would he need to make between the potential pairs:
A.) K/S - If he votes Sean, he loses the bond/trust they once had. If he votes Kathy, he loses possible "insurance" to almost guarantee a F3.
B.) K/V - See above regarding a vote for Kathy, and I can't think of a good reason why he would feel threatened choosing V other than he might upset Sean. (With K/N on his side, that wouldn't concern him too much.)
C.) S/V - If he votes either one, he is sure to alienate the other.

Pappy is known to have "played the game with integrity". Therefore, I believe his "determination" will be strictly based on who he feels is the least "deserving" to win the game. IMO, that will be between S/V, and I think he will lean towards V based on his previous bond with Sean, and what I previously discussed HERE.

"Tensions arise at an uncomfortable campfire meeting and erupt the next night at Tribal Council."

I believe is pretty obvious from the video previews this "tension" is during a conversation S/V have with P/N at the campfire. However, I'm intrigued that this "erupts the next night at TC." IMO, S is the only one who would "erupt" at TC. It MUST be during the JP questions, and (based on previous comments by Sean) it's probably related to the African American factor. It also indicates to me, Sean will feel threatened at TC, and we have seen when that is the case (i.e. Sean in Ep8 and the General in Ep9) that person usually does NOT get booted.

"A twelfth castaway is voted out, determining the Final Four."

Based on the above, and what I have discussed at this THREAD, I believe it will all come down to this:

If N or P win IC, then V is gone.

If K/S or V win IC, then P is gone.

"RE: EPMB has many of you GRASPING FOR STRAWS"
Posted by ivoryElephant on 05-11-02 at 08:44 PM
Great analysis napalminthemorning. I do belive that kathy is safe.

Someone mentioned that when MB throws something at us (3 womens alliance, Kathy/Rob take out neleh) that it never works and therefore Kathy will be booted since she is previewed to make a desicion on who to allign with.

However, the difference is that the 3 womens alliance was never even considered by Kim J, it was something MB fabricated, yes T-bird approached her but it was obvious Kim J was not budging.

The way I see it is Kathy already has made her decision and MB wants us to think she hasn't made the decision yet to make it interesting.
The remaining players are smart, they are not going to get rid of kathy and risk the tiebreaker, they need her to get rid of the other pair.
MB will edit the show showing Kathy deciding on which side and then she will choose and that will be the surprise. Kathy is guaranteed a spot in the final 3.


Hail Kathy! the Sole survivor!

"RE: EPMB has many of you GRASPING FOR STRAWS"
Posted by ivoryElephant on 05-11-02 at 09:19 PM
one more thing that I forgot to mention...


this season MB has shown people stating things and the reverse happens. These aren't exact quotes. But retain the meaning.

Things people said before they were booted.

John: "P/N really support me winning this, I am takin git all" he is booted that episode

Zoe: "If I tell someone something and do something else, then that is just the way it is, because I am winning this thing"
She is booted that episode. It was one of her two confessionals.

Tammy: I can't remember her quote the day she was booted.

Robert: He made a quote about taking it all the way and winning the day he was booted although I can't remember it.


Things people said before they won immunity

Kathy: in waterfall "I am a pawn....I have to win immunity or I will get the boot" NO ONE ELSE was shown saying this.

Tammy wins the next IC no one talks about needing to win Immunity except for sean. Although he didn't win the IC he wasn't booted after talking about needing the IN.

Tammy: after john getting booted she states that she is the next in line to get booted since she is another leader. She wins immunity.

Robert: Talks alot about how he is the next to go and if he doesn't win immunity he is gone. Tammy is never shown stating she needs immunity even though she is also a target. ONLY robert was shown stating it and he won.

Vecepia: wasn't shown stating that she needed immunity. Robert never stated he needed it, which helps the trend, he wasn't SHOWN stating it and therefore won immunity..

There is also a third trend. When people make statements about the final 3 or final 4, they never come true.

John: "if I catch a pig I am assured a spot in the final 4" oops...bye bye johnny.

There were a few others that I can't remember and a bunch during S2 Varner and his alicia alliance in Ep. 1 stating they were taking it to the finals. Lex also stated it in S3, however, Kelly was included in that statement and she didn't make it, also Kim J made final 2 not the 3 men alliance. It also helped bring suspense when brandon almost turned it around for samburu.

The whole point I am trying to make is
that Kathy was walking with robert and saying "it looks like it is going to be a sure bet that Neleh and Paschal are final 2"

That is another misdirection that goes along with the things mentioned above. Therefore I believe that P/N will NOT be the final 2. Paschal might make it but NOT with Neleh

Hail Kathy! the Sole survivor!

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by corcam on 05-12-02 at 00:49 AM
It was posted that Kathy was wearing an earring of Vee's and here is a clip with a thing on her head that looks like perhaps the top that Neleh had on, I know that she gave a piece to her amam(lol), could she have given a piece to Kathy too???? or is this something that they all already had?


"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SMGLover on 05-12-02 at 01:58 AM
About the earing thing, didn't Kathy and Zoe wear little strings around their arms at tribal council? And then Zoe was voted off the next episode. I dont think the earing thing is a reliable spoiler. Maybe that is Kathys way of saying "your next" by wearing the same thing they do! Seriously though, I doubt the earings mean anything, just like the bands on Zoe and Kathy's arm didnt.
"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by jancan on 05-12-02 at 03:00 AM
While one castaway celebrates jubilantly, Paschal is less than pleased after arriving at an important determination about two tribemates.

Lets just say that prior to the IC, Kathy makes her pivotal decision and N/P/K decide that Vee must go, then Vee screws up their plans by winning immunity....

Paschal would be "less than pleased" to vote out his rollin' in the sand buddy. Sean would sure be pissed off at him and I can definately see Sean erupting at TC about it.


"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-13-02 at 06:23 AM
I'm thinking similarly to you, jancan, except that I think Kathy is slated to go (inestead of Vee) and Kathy wins immunity. So Paschal realizes that Sean and Neleh are the two biggest targets (besides himself), and has to make a decision on what to do.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by katem on 05-13-02 at 10:14 AM
Well, thanks to Bungler's great work, True's keen eyes and IceCat's super vidcap analysis we have, I think an IC winner, and it is Kathy. See this thread:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2801.shtml

Now, the question is, who goes?

I think, of the other four, the only possibly safe person is Vee. P/N will probably target Sean, and Neleh has been edited as a huge target.

BUT, Kathy and Robert discussed in the last episode that Paschal was the biggest threat.

So, with Kathy winning IN, which side will she side with? I think, the smart thing is S/V, but she will stay loyal and boot Sean.

What do you think?

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-13-02 at 10:20 AM
This is a tough call, and I think it's really going to depend on how Kathy feels at the moment of truth.

Sean will probably insist on voting Neleh out. Kathy may prefer to vote Paschal out, so there might be some conflict there.

While we spoilers can sit here and say that *logically* (there's that word again!) Kathy should side with Sean/Vee, she may decide along lines that "if I do NOT win, I'd rather see Pappy or Neleh get the money." And Kathy's chances of winning with either group are, IMHO, about the same.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"What are you people talking about?????"
Posted by Wacko Jacko on 05-13-02 at 10:59 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-13-02 AT 11:03 AM (EST)

There is no way in hell will Paschal vote out Neleh. Do you people work for Burnett or something and are trying to stir up come unneeded excitement?

An all female alliance? What has happened so far that would hint at that? Neleh considers her Paschal to be like her father. And Vee and Sean have had a very close relationship. Has Vee even spoke with Neleh and Kathy?

Look, I will tell you how it is. Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal will probably vote out Vee or Sean depending on if either wins immunity. Kathy has an alliance with Paschal and Neleh and would have to quit the alliance to vote either of them out. Kathy's son didn't help Kathy's idea of going against her alliance to well. And I think she will listen to her son and ride it out.

The only way Paschal votes for Neleh (or vice versa) is if the other three tell Paschal that they have already decided to vote out Neleh and he can either be with them or without them.

NO MORE OF THIS NELEH VOTING FOR PASCHAL OR PASCHAL VOTING FOR NELEH. Because anyone with a brain knows it aint happening.

"RE: What are you people talking about?????"
Posted by mistofleas on 05-13-02 at 03:08 PM
>There is no way in hell
>will Paschal vote out Neleh.
> Do you people work
>for Burnett or something and
>are trying to stir up
>come unneeded excitement?

--I think it's important to remember Neleh NEVER said she wouldn't vote for Paschal. Perhaps you're thinking of Elizabeth and Roger.
--Elizabeth said "I will never write that man's name".

--Neleh has said "...it would be very difficult to vote for him."

Those are very different things. They both know it's a game. They both know that eventually it could come to either one or the other having to cast a vote for the other. I'm sure that Paschal at some point could say to Neleh, "hey kiddo, it's been great but things going the way they are you got a better chance at winning if you go with them and vote me out. I'll still send you Christmas cards." and she would. She wants to win. Of course so does he, but all I'm saying is that it COULD happen.

>NO MORE OF THIS NELEH VOTING
>FOR PASCHAL OR PASCHAL VOTING
>FOR NELEH. Because anyone
>with a brain knows it
>aint happening.

--I got a brain and I say that it could happen. So there.


mistofleas --making the world a little more itchy

"RE: What are you people talking about?????"
Posted by Wacko Jacko on 05-13-02 at 03:59 PM
Won't happen. More likely scenerio is Paschal, Neleh, and Kathy keeping their alliance. Especially after Neleh was chosen by Paschal for that RC and Neleh being so happy about it. I thought neleh said she could never write Paschals name down. I may be wrong but she might as well of said it. It will not happen.
"RE: What are you people talking about?????"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-13-02 at 05:29 PM
An all female alliance? What has happened so far that would hint at that?

Well, to get technical, there was a hint at the last IC challenge, where the females did little dances when all the males were eliminated and only the females were remaining.

But I don't think any alliances have been or will be based on this consideration.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by Fuzzy Platypus of Death on 05-13-02 at 02:07 PM
One thing that kinda catches my eye in SeeBS's foreplay for next week's episode is the word 'erupt'. I notice that the word 'erupt' right now is presumed to mean anger or hostility from one of the contestants (Sean busts a gut, etc) upon getting ousted. The use of the word 'erupt' does leave room for another alternative, however, if taken away from the context of the tensions mentioned in the previous line...

Tears? Many, many tears?

If Paschal gets voted off (Neleh wins IC, Kathy joins with V/S, or Paschal wins IC and transfers to Neleh are possible scenarios) it's not going to be a pretty sight. Neleh is going to explode into tears, Kathy won't be too far behind, and I think Sean and Paschal have grown close enough over time that even Sean will break down like a little schoolgirl.

So not only could this scenario explain the 'eruption', but it also explains why the discussions leading up to TC would be so tense, because everyone in the game really respects Paschal and would feel very squeamish about voting for him go... Just a thought.


And now, having supported my scenario with absolutely nothing more than speculation on the use of the word 'erupt', I'm just going to curl up into the fetal position over here in the corner and wait for the Anti-Platypus Missiles (APM's) to come my way...

Peace,

Fuzzy Platypus of Death

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by Wacko Jacko on 05-13-02 at 03:52 PM
They also said on the past weeks promo's - "Someone is coming to camp and you won't believe who it is". WAS ANYONE SHOCKED to find out that it was Kathy's son? I don't know about you but I was disappointed. Remember the Croc from the Outback and who got attacked by the Croc? Don't read too much into the promo wordings.
"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by toddE on 05-13-02 at 03:55 PM
Well, first I see that SurvivinDawg seems to have believed the vidcap showing Kathy with (apparently) no backpack on the way to TC, and if even Survivin(Kathy's next)Dawg thinks Kathy's safe, she probably is. And, as someone else said, it would be a very anti-climactic final 4 if they do vote her out. Plus, it makes no sense for either team.

I do sort of think the final 4 will be a tie when Kathy and whoever is left w/o alliance vote together against the intact alliance next week, and that could mean Kathy is out at 4th, but I don't think at 5th.

Your analysis of the eruption when Pappy gets voted out sounds like a good one, I think I'm going to go along with it.

Supposedly the Tahiti Presse wrote of a male/female f2. Maybe it is Sean and Kathy or Vee in F2?

"RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep. 12"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 05-13-02 at 05:35 PM
Well, first I see that SurvivinDawg seems to have believed the vidcap showing Kathy with (apparently) no backpack on the way to TC, and if even Survivin(Kathy's next)Dawg thinks Kathy's safe, she probably is.

Thanks... I think...

Seriously: At first glance and face value, it certainly looks strong that Kathy is the IC winner, what with the lack of backpack AND what I perceive to possibly be the IC necklace around her neck.

It also makes some sense with regard to the Episode title.

It also makes some sense with regard to the Neleh-is-up-for-booting editing that we've seen the past two episodes.

I commend your attention to Outfrontgirl's vote message for last week. I felt like she was just one week too early, and every one of her reasons for Neleh going still hold true and strong for this week.

Paschal is indeed a possibility for going. And either of them being booted will cause an eruption of tears.

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged