LAST EDITED ON 05-10-02 AT 11:31 AM (EST)

Trust has been a huge factor in who stays and who goes in this game. Once you have proven yourself untrustworthy (Gabe, Zoe, Brandon, Kelly W.) you become a target in this game. I think that all the misdirection and subterfuge regarding sub-alliances, cross-alliances and double secret relationships is unlikely speculation. Kathy is the X-factor and while MB is trying to make it seem otherwise, she is going to have to choose S/V or P/N.

Paschal and Neleh - have been together since the beginning of the game, have a STRONG religious bond and moral orientation, Paschal's wife said he played with integrity - indicating he doesn't betray Neleh, the "family" bond. There is NO WAY that these two are going to break up unless forced to.

Sean and Vee - both have been underdogs through the whole game, both have been together the whole time, they DO have a shared experience as African American's (as Sean said in Episode 1, they even communicate telepathically). Vee has shown a tendency to wander in her alliegences to stay in the game longer, but given the unbreakable IMO nature of the P/N bond is really not going to have any pratical option, but to stick with Sean.

So let's assume that Kathy decides to allign with S/V (the smart move at this point, but not the one I think she is going to make). That probably means that Neleh is gone. So what happens next? Do S/P end up teaming against V/K? I don't think so. I think that in the end it is going to come down to TRUST. There is the opportunity to throw overboard the person that you have been playing the game with since day 1 and making a new alliance, but do you really trust you new allies more than your current one? Do you KNOW that they will keep you around once your shield has been eliminated? I think at this point in the game everyone is reconsidering their end-game strategy, but in the end they will go with the person they trust the most and not try a rsiky new strategy with no certainty in results. There is no certain benefit to S/V/P/N changing sides at this point in the game, they all have final two partners - now we just wait to see where Kathy goes.