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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-08, 10:59 AM (EST) "Dial Idol predictions" Not sure how many voters really use this for DWTS so no idea how accurate these will end up being. Early in the season usually is much worse than later in the season. I'm also putting up the Judges scores as Dial Idol did them, then using the scores and the dial idol ranking I did a combination to see who might be most at risk Judges Score Brooke and Derek 23 Lance and Lacey 22 Toni and Alec 22 Misty and Maksim 21 Warren and Kym 21 Kim and Mark 19 Maurice and Cheryl 18 Cody and Julianne 18 Ted and Inna 18 Cloris and Corky 16 Susan and Tony 15 Rocco and Karina 14 Jeff and Edyta 12 Dial Idol Score (Percent busy) Warren and Kym 28.52 (19.23) Misty and Maksim 22.14 (23.53) Susan and Tony 21.85 (21.88) Cody and Julianne 21.14 (12.82) Brooke and Derek 19.14 (15.62) Lance and Lacey 16.47 (9.09) Maurice and Cheyl 15.32 (5.26) Ted and Inna 12.1 (6.06) Cloris and Corky 11.93 (8.01) Toni and Alec 9.21 (0) Rocco and Karina 9.1 (8.57) Kim and Mark 7.95 (0) Jeff and Edyta 5.02 (0) So from the combination calculation I did (I think the judges scores is % of the total scores given out) I did something similar to the dial idol so they are also percentages of the total to more mimic percentage of total vote, although I got the same cut offs with using it straight up. So the combo score had an average of 7.06 and a standard deviation of 1.87 So I used those stats to divide into high medium and low risk. Low risk Warren and Kym Misty and Maksim Medium risk Brooke and Derek (just barely below the cut off) Cody and Julianne Susan and Tony Lance and Lacey Maurice and Cheryl Ted and Inna Cloris and Corky Toni and Alec Kim and Mark High Risk Rocco and Karina Jeff and Edyta (they are a lot lower than anyone so I'm predicting they go home) Duckies by Smokey's Mom   Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Dial Idol predictions CTgirl 09-23-08 1    RE: Dial Idol predictions byoffer 09-23-08 2        RE: Dial Idol predictions qwertypie 09-23-08 3  Second Night of Dance, Week One Snidget 09-24-08 4    RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One observer 09-24-08 5        RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One Snidget 09-24-08 6            RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One observer 09-24-08 7                RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One Snidget 09-24-08 8  Week Two Snidget 09-30-08 9  Week Four Snidget 10-14-08 10  Week Five Snidget 10-21-08 11    RE: Week Five qwertypie 10-21-08 12        RE: Week Five Loree 10-21-08 13    RE: Week Five vince3 10-21-08 14        RE: Week Five Snidget 10-21-08 15  Week Six Snidget 10-28-08 16  RE: Dial Idol predictions Snidget 11-04-08 17  Semi-Final Predictions Snidget 11-18-08 18    RE: Semi-Final Predictions CTgirl 11-18-08 19

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CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-08, 02:52 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Dial Idol predictions" I agree Jeff and Edyta will go home. Even Edyta's lack of a costume won't help them! Cheers to Tribe!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

byoffer 15808 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-08, 03:24 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Dial Idol predictions" What a sad commentary on just how bad his dancing was is that!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

qwertypie 9721 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-23-08, 06:03 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Dial Idol predictions" Mr. Qwerty is quite sad as well.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-24-08, 08:15 AM (EST) 4. "Second Night of Dance, Week One" I'm guessing there wasn't as many people voting this second night in a week, ending at 11 pm doesn't help much with that and I don't know if there is the excitement factor like you would have from the season premiere. Dial Idol Scores (DWTS version, not the regular score) Couple Score (Percent Busy) Maurice and Cheryl 108.3 --very odd numbers this time-- (6.25) Brooke and Derek 10.28 (2.88) Toni and Alec 9.09 (2.17) Cody and Julianne 9.09 (0) Susan and Ton 8.7 (0) Warren and Kym 8.7 (0) Misty an Maksim 8.3 (0) Lance and Lacey 8.3 (0) Rocco and Karina 8.3 (0) Ted and Inna 7.51 (0) Kim and Mark 7.11 (0) Cloris and Corky 6.32 (0) Judges Score Brooke and Derek 26 Toni and Alec 23 Cody and Julianne 23 Susan and Tony 22 Warren and Kym 22 Lance and Lacey 21 Rocco and Karina 21 Maurice and Cheryl 21 Misty and Maksim 21 Ted and Inna 19 Kim and Mark 18 Cloris and Corky 16 Since the one Dial Idol was weird I just doubled the highest other score to give them the "vote" side of the equation. Adding the percentages (so perecent of total score for DI (vote) and Judges) and taking the mean and this time standard error (16.7% +/- 1.1%)as that one wonky score really screws up the standard deviation I get the following prediction. Low risk Above average + error Maurice and Cheryl Brooke and Derek Medium risk Cody and Julianne Toni and Alec Susan and Tony Warren and Kym Lance and Lacey Misty and Maksim Rocco and Karina High risk of leaving average - error Ted and Inna Kim and Mark Cloris and Corky   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

observer 209 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-24-08, 12:38 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One" I don't know anything about the Diol predicter. I don't vote for contestants on any reality shows. Based on the high scores that Derek and his partner got, I think the judges have already decided that Derek will win. I don't think the judges pay attention to the votes that contestants get. Also, I think Mario Lopez got more votes than Emmett, since Mario is popular... but the judges gave first prize to the Emmett because Mario didn't strictly follow ballrrom dancing rules.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-24-08, 01:01 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One" I hope the judges don't score based only on what the votes from the week/night before were. DWTS they do a combination of judges and popular vote, that is why I used both for the prediction. If the judges just scored based on what they thought people would vote for there wouldn't be much point. It is obvious sometimes what the judges score well and what is popular with America are two very different things. BTW. Dial Idol is a computer based dialing program. It is pretty much like hitting the redial button but letting the computer do it. It isn't a power dialer. They do collect the data from the computers voting using that system and use data like the % busy signals to guesstimate what the vote is. When it gets down to just a few people left and there is a lot of voting they can do pretty well at guessing who is likely to be going home/winning. For shows like American Idol where a lot of people use it the results are a lot better. Good old sampling theory. Sample a bigger part of the population you get closer to the reality of the whole group than if you only sample a few people. By looking at busy signals they get some idea of what people not using the system are voting for. They don't assume the people using the system are voting the way America does. We never can know the real totals, since no one ever publishes them, but I assume they could be subject to audit so I think they really do count them. Some things like Dial Idol at least give us a bit of an insight into what might be happening. It isn't completely accurate, but it does seem to do a good job a fair amount of the time.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

observer 209 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-24-08, 01:47 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One" DWTS doesn't even award any prizes: it's just an entertaiment show... so the producers would have justification for ignoring the vote totals for the sake of the show and keeping sponsors happy. I don't think audits would be done on vote totals. I read an article in the National Enquirer about DWTS being rigged. I know the Enquirer is just a tabloid, but the Enquirer makes sure that the facts in their articles are true: to help prevent lawsuits. Even if they did take voting into consideration, and Derek got unusually high scores fron the judges and very few votes, would there be any chance that Derek would be voted off of the show?   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-24-08, 02:07 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Second Night of Dance, Week One" *dons conspiracy theory hat* There have been people that got good judges scores that have left unexpectedly. Either they really had poor vote totals or it was "shocking elimination time" in the story arc. If they just eliminate people willy-nilly it would be a bit early for someone at or near the top of the leader board to get voted out. Especially when there are so many early boot targets. Usually the "we thought they would win it all the first show" boot happens about mid season. Usually the ones with high scores are popular enough to keep around for a few weeks. After all the shocking elimination isn't that shocking if we aren't even attached to any of the stars, yet. */hat* The % of the judges vote method used now I does thing helps to insulate those that may need a few weeks to build a fan base but dance very well. They used to do a rank based method which I think happened to keep a few really bad dancers around way longer than the producers wanted and exposed the better dancers they wanted to shield from elimination too much. If you rank order them the person that is last place is only one number away from the next to last person. When you use the % of the judge score totals giving someone a much lower total than everyone else makes it a lot harder for the votes to save them. That being said people with pretty decent scores have gone home. It isn't always the one with the lowest judges score. I'm thinking of Sabrina *checks wiki* now her scores the week she left weren't as stellar as they were most weeks, but she was pretty much in the middle of the pack that week. Fan favorites often last several weeks of being at the bottom of the judges scores.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-08, 09:27 AM (EST) 9. "Week Two" LAST EDITED ON 09-30-08 AT 09:27 AM (EST) Dial Idol (DWTS score) Lance/Lacey 39.89 Cody/Julianne 39.83 Maurice/Cheryl 36.01 Toni/Alec 17.26 Warren/Kym 15.43 Brooke/Derek 10.86 Susan/Tony 9.5 Misty/Maksim 9.5 Kim/Mark 7.69 Rocco/Karina 7.24 Cloris/Corky 6.79 Judges Scores Brooke/Derek 24 Warren/Kym 24 Toni/Alec 23 Cody/Julianne 21 Susan/Tony 21 Misty/Maksim 21 Lance/Lacey 20 Maurice/Cheryl 19 Kim/Mark 17 Rocco/Karina 16 Cloris/Corky 15 Combined % of total average 18.18% +/- The Standard Deviation of 7.15 Low Risk of Being Voted off. Cody/Julianne Lance/Lacey Maurice/Cheryl Medium Risk of Being Voted Off Toni/Alec Warren/Kym Brooke/Derek Susan/Tony Misty/Maksim Kim/Mark High Risk of Being Voted Off Rocco/Karina Cloris/Corky "Indecision 2008: The Long Flat Seemingly Endless Bataan Death March to The White House" (April 23, 2008) --Jon Stewart   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-08, 06:48 AM (EST) 10. "Week Four" Looks like DialIdol may have combined their data as well. Dial Idol DWTS score DI DWTS Brooke & Derek 34.99 Lance & Lacey 29.35 Warren & Kym 37.46 Susan & Tony 11.19 Toni & Alec 16.87 Maurice & Cheryl 14.72 Cody & Julianne 23.88 Rocco & Karina 12.6 Cloris & Corky 18.93 Judges Scores Brooke & Derek 54 Lance & Lacey 48 Warren & Kym 47 Susan & Tony 45 Toni & Alec 44 Maurice & Cheryl 44 Cody & Julianne 44 Rocco & Karina 38 Cloris & Corky 38 Doing a percentage of each, adding them up then doing an Average and Standard Deviation we get. (In order of the added up percentage) Low Risk of Leaving Brooke & Derek Warren & Kym Medium Risk of Leaving Lance & Lacey Cody & Julianne Toni & Alec Cloris & Corky Maurice & Cheryl Susan & Tony High Risk of Leaving Rocco & Karina Sigs by AgGhoul   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-08, 01:26 PM (EST) 11. "Week Five" Dial Idol Score Cody & Julianne 35.88 Brooke & Derek 28.75 Lance & Lacey 28.98 Warren & Kym 28.14 Maurice & Cheryl 27.98 Cloris & Corky 20.94 Susan & Tony 15.99 Toni & Alec 13.64 Judges Score Brooke & Derek 29 Cody & Julianne 28 Maurice & Cheryl 27 Warren & Kym 25 Susan & Tony 22 Toni & Alec 22 Cloris & Corky 21 Lance & Lacey 21 Combined and found average and Standard Deviation for high, medium and low risk, in order of risk. Low Risk of going home Cody & Julianne Medium Risk of going home Brooke & Derek Maurice & Cheryl Warren & Kym Lance & Lacey Cloris & Corky High Risk of going home Susan & Tony Toni & Alec Sigs by AgGhoul   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

qwertypie 9721 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-08, 04:54 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Week Five" WOW! It will be interesting to see how this plays out.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-08, 07:05 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Week Five" It will probably be Toni leaving. But I would rather Susan go home.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-08, 07:35 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Week Five" I find it interesting that both 21s are "safe", while both 22s are at the highest risk........   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-08, 07:44 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Week Five" assuming the voting at dial idol is right. When a relatively popular person gets tied for last I think they get a lot more support than the next to last people. Just like when Simon says "pack your bags" that gets the fans all riled up and they save them.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-08, 08:11 AM (EST) 16. "Week Six" Well the Judges this week decided to give Clorky a big hurdle to get over. We will see if the internet voting saves them or not because it doesn't look like the phone voting from dialidol will DWTS Dial Idol Score Brooke & Derek 35.33 Warren & Kym 33.34 Lance & Lacey 32.36 Maurice & Cheryl 29.78 Cody & Julianne 26.07 Susan & Tony 22.55 Cloris & Corky 20.88 Judges Score Lance & Lacey 27 Brooke & Derek 26 Warren & Kym 25 Susan & Tony 23 Cody & Julianne 23 Maurice & Cheryl 21 Cloris & Corky 15 Took the % of the vote from DI and % of the judges scores, added them together. Ranks based on average and standard deviation. They are in order of total Low Risk of Going Home Brooke & Derek Medium Risk of Going home Warren & Kym Lance & Lacey Maurice & Cheryl Cody & Julianne Susan & Tony High Risk of Going Home Cloris & Corky   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-04-08, 11:24 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Dial Idol predictions" Dial Idol Score 41 Warren and Kym 34.53 Cody and Edyta 33.72 Lance and Lacey 33.52 Maurice and Cheryl 33.27 Brooke and Derek 23.96 Susan and Tony Judges Score 59 Brooke and Derek 54 Maurice and Cheryl 50 Warren and Kym 45 Lance and Lacey 44 Susan and Tony 42 Cody and Edyta %of Vote + % of Judges Score Combination (Average +/- Standard Deviation for the groupings in order from high to low) Low Risk of Going Home Warren and Kym Medium Risk for Going Home Brooke and Derek Maurice and Cheryl Lance and Lacey Cody and Edyta High Risk of Going Home Susan and Tony Anonymous OT Presidential Survey   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-18-08, 05:57 AM (EST) 18. "Semi-Final Predictions" Dial Idol Scores 79.47 Lance and Lacey 48.34 Warren and Kym 38.97 Brooke and Derek 36.21 Cody and Julianne Judges Scores 57 Lance and Lacey 49 Warren and Kym 49 Brooke and Derek 46 Cody and Julianne Combined Percentage Predictions (average +/- standard deviation of the combined score) Low Risk of Going Home 0.68 Lance and Lacey Medium/High Risk of Going Home 0.48 Warren and Kym 0.44 Brooke and Derek 0.41 Cody and Julianne Lance and Lacey really peaked at the right time. They got high scores when no one else did, and the underdogs finally make it story line seems to have really driven the Dial Idol Prediction and given them a really wide margin over all. They pulled the average up so high they are the only ones above that line. If the Dial Idol Busy signal is right I think the question is going to be how much Lance/Lacey pulled from Brooke/Derek or Cody/Julianne's fan bases.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-18-08, 09:04 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Semi-Final Predictions" Lance and Lacey definately peaked at the right time, and Brooke definately stumbled at the worst possible time. If the voting is close, I wonder who has the biggest fan base? Warren and Cody probably have bigger fan bases than Brooke. She's stayed in it because she was the best, but last night she was really flat. I think the judges think Cody should go home, but what do the fans think? Will we have a shocker tonight? surfkitty sig shop 2007   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

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