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"Handicapping the Apprentice"
frodo2 289 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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09-25-04, 07:19 AM (EST)
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"Handicapping the Apprentice" |
I'm splitting the people in Apprentice into risk brackets. "High Risk" means that this person could be fired next show. "Moderate Risk means they probably won't make it all the way through" "Low Risk" means that they have a good chance of winning the show. Within each bracket I've ordered from the most likely to the least likely. Right now, Kelly is winning, followed by Kevin, who improvised a great backup plan when Andy's idea failed.Fired ----- Rob Bradford Stacie J High Risk --------- Ivana Maria Andy Elizabeth Moderate Risk ------------- Pamela John Wes Stacy R Chris Jennifer C Low Risk -------- Raj Sandy Jennifer M Kevin Kelly
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frodo2 289 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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09-25-04, 07:21 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Handicapping the Apprentice" |
Interesting to note that even though Jennifer C hasn't had a serious business mistake, she's too immeshed in politics at this point, and it probably result in her being a Katrina.
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Pepito 587 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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09-25-04, 09:16 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Handicapping the Apprentice" |
Well done, Frodo. The only point of disagreement is that I would flip Pamela and Andy. Andy is a contributor -- sure, wild ideas, but it was the seed that got his team rolling on a decent idea that was good enough to allow P&G to justify giving them a win when Apex screwed up. The final test will be when he is actually a PM. If his team wins, he may actually become low risk.I think Pamela is on Donald's "To Be Fired" List. I don't think that Carolyn will ever get past the Dumb & Dumber incident with her, and another mistake will break the camel's back. Also, she separates herself and shows off in front of her team (ice cream factory incident, dining out incidences...), so when Mosaic loses, she will very likely be in the boardroom fighting to stay alive. I do agree with your comment about Jenn C. She's trouble, her team just doesn't seem to have recognized it yet.
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frodo2 289 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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09-30-04, 11:52 AM (EST)
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9. "9/30/2004 Update" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-30-04 AT 11:53 AM (EST)Jen C. was fired this week, so I'm updating the roster. If you read my earlier comment, you'll note that I said she'd get too emeshed in politics. It happened more quickly than I suspected, but it did happen. here's my new list: Fired ----- Rob Bradford Stacie J Jennifer C High Risk --------- Ivana Maria Andy Elizabeth Moderate Risk ------------- Stacy R Pamela Sandy Chris John Wes Low Risk -------- Jennifer M Raj Kevin Kelly
Raj, Jen M, Kevin, and Kelly remain in the Low risk bracket. I give extra respect to Kevin for calling the women on their bullsh!t. It won't help him when teams remix, but he wasn't alone in saying this, and the women were more concerned with turning on Elizabeth than getting mad at a guy who disagreed with him.
Another thing that's interesting is that this group tends to hold grudges past tasks. That's totally destroying the women. Stacy R goes higher on the moderate risk list for her tendency to gossip, but she still doesn't go to high risk because despite her annoyingness, she hasn't caused the group to fail. Sandy drops out of the low risk bracket because Trump and Carolyn asked for her by name.
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frodo2 289 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-12-04, 10:32 AM (EST)
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10. "10/30/04 Update" |
Based on the firing of Pamela, I have a new ranking.here's my new list: Fired ----- Rob Bradford Stacie J Jennifer C Pamela High Risk --------- Ivana Maria Sandy Andy Elizabeth Moderate Risk ------------- Stacy R John Wes Chris
Low Risk -------- Jennifer M Raj Kevin Kelly
My changes are minor this time. I moved Chris to a position above Wes because he was a succesful Project Manager. However, I'm not moving him to the low risk bracket because he still hasn't shown much.
I debated flipping Ivana and Maria around, but I think they'll probably get fired around the same time. Rumors have indicated that Ivana makes it into the top 8, but I'd like to have that verified first. Trump has asked for Ivana by name twice, so she's in the dog house as far as I know. Sandy is at a higher level of risk now because last week, Trump asked for her in the boardroom and this week, he thought she should have been there as well. One difficulty in handicapping the apprentice so far is that the men are much stronger as a group than first season. It's harder to differentiate between individual weaknesses.
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frodo2 289 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-24-04, 08:29 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Handicapping the Apprentice" |
It's time for this month's update. This will probably be the last one I do for this season, since the show is almost over.Based on the firings of the last month, I have a new ranking. here's my new list: Fired ----- Rob Bradford Stacie J Jennifer C Pamela John Elizabeth Stacy R Raj Chris Maria Wes Remaining Candidates (in order of expected firing) ----- Sandy Ivana Andy Kevin Jennifer M Kelly
Note that I've removed the Moderate, High, and Low risk pools. I did that early on to group the candidates so that I could think about them more easily. There are few enough left now that I can make a general prediction
I think I've been pretty much spot on except that Andy and Ivana were able to reverse the course from their beginning experiences. Andy showed that he's an excellent leader and can handle control freaks like Maria, a feat that Wes was incapable of. Ivana hasn't gotten much better, but she has wily survival skills that have kept her in the game even if she's not a good businesswoman. There will be another double-firing during the interview episode, so the results of it are hard to predict, but I presume that Andy will go down then due to his age, and Kevin, because he shows stress physically, which the executives won't like. Trying to outguess the apprentice has been something of a great game. I only wish the season would have gone better with more qualified women and better firings from Trump.
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