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"Last night's vote was very telling"
esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-15-05, 09:29 AM (EST)
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"Last night's vote was very telling" |
I think last night's vote was very interesting and told us a lot about the dynamics of the new Koror. There were 7 votes for Coby. Either that was an amazing coincidence, or the tribe had a chance to figure who they wanted gone before the reward challenge or on there way to the reward challenge. The dominant part of the tribe brought Karyn in from the cold and included Stephanie in their decision. It seemed as if Coby and Janu were told that Janu was going. In either event, it is now obvious that Coby and Janu were the outsiders.
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kary1371 631 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-15-05, 09:48 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
Which fits the spoilers that Janu is the one to go next... IMHO anyways...
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gwrbassin 25 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-15-05, 10:09 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
I agree this fits with the spoilers but if I am not mistaken the spoilers have steph leaving in 7th place. Why would Tom and Ian allow this. They have both talked about her being in the final four and she now has info that greg has a plan to stab tom in the back. It might happen but just can not see how.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-15-05, 10:17 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
I think this might be a case of the women banding together against Steph. If Caryn, Katie and Jenn all want Steph out, all Jenn needs is to get Gregg to vote with her. Ian and Tom would not be able to save Steph. And Gregg may sense the closeness between Steph with Tom and Ian. So Gregg would probably agree. We see Tom and Ian talk about Steph in the F4 with Katie. But Katie has never been shown agreeing to this. And I think Katie and Jenn are scared of Steph going on an Immunity Run and knocking them out.
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ElroyJetson 586 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-15-05, 10:20 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
Why would Tom and Ian allow this.It's possible that Steph overplays her hand and attempts a coup on Tom and Ian. Just spec... --Elroy
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ohboy 168 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-15-05, 10:30 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
I think that Steph is holding the girls too close. Coby nailed it right on the head when he said that Jen and Katie were jealous they are very aware that Steph can hold her own. And she is a threat, she can win immunity challenges she should have one last night. I am going to say that they discussed prior to going to the challenge who they would vote off. I think that was why Steph gave up. I dont' think she wanted to make a big deal and win it, she let them know that she was capable but I think in General she felt she was safe as she was told that. I dont' know what she is going to do as she can concievably win every immunity challenge but the chances of that are very slim. I think that perhaps this was her way of relenting letting Tom win, letting him know she trusts him and he is the boss. I do think that Stephanie will turn on Tom and Ian much sooner rather than later, Tom is reallly her only competion as far as strength goes. I don't think the other ones have the stamina to beat her in these challenges.
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tikigirlie 112 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-15-05, 09:57 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
i know mersaydeez said that katie and jenn didn't get along with steph after the merge, and i agree that it's likely these women would just push steph off.someone said earlier that after janu left, the other three women would band together to boot steph. i don't think caryn dislikes steph - in fact i believe caryn really likes steph, her work ethic and competitiveness. let's face it, if steph were in the F2, caryn would vote for her, because i don't think anyone else measures up to steph. we've seen coby, ian, katie and jenn acknowledge steph's strength and toughness (and hey, she seems pretty smart too). however, i remember that mersaydeez was just speculating on steph's boot placement. am i right? her source said that steph outlasted a few koror and someone else mentioned that's it's possible steph and jenn's boots could've been switched. to a lot of people, steph is another rupert. completely deserving of the win. she put up with the WORST TRIBE EVER (officially) and was well-liked by almost everyone (so far). if there were another all-stars, steph would be one of them.
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fallingtogether 85 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-15-05, 08:57 PM (EST)
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11. "steph's coup" |
"It's possible that Steph overplays her hand and attempts a coup on Tom and Ian. Just spec..."If Steph were smart, she'd do just that. She's take the info about Gregg turning on Tom that she got from Coby and go to Gregg and say, "Hey, I'm willing to go along with you and Jenn to knock out Tom, Ian and Katie." Then they could get Caryn on their side, becaue Caryn maybe feels vulnerable. The only problem I see with this plan is stupid Gregg. I think Gregg thinks that he has this super tight relationship with Tom and Ian that they would never boot him, when in fact we've seen them talk about final four with Gregg nowhere in their plans. So...
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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04-15-05, 11:11 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
I agree with Loree's comments, and then some.To start with, Coby blew his chance when he took Steph off by himself. He knew he was rubbing their noses in it while he did, and Steph had no reason to trust him over any of the other 7 people in the tribe. And then bragging about the donuts. He had 2, for cryin' out loud. Now, the chocolate chip cookie thing was lame, but the pizza was SUCH a good deal. (Lesson learned - never take the first offer.) If he hadn't already screwed things up enough at camp, then he sealed the deal at the challenge. IDIOT!! So then we get the TC. Coby is on his way out the door. Coby votes for Janu, Janu votes for Steph. Both of them are out of the loop. Janu also knows she's been totally lazy and worthless and confessed to being so. From the next week's previews, we can pretty much guess that with her minor spike in confessional time (i.e. saying something at TC), that next week is her week to go. Now let's go back to Greg's old plan. He wanted to flop the game at 7 with him and Jenn with Coby and Janu. Two things have happened to screw up that plan. First was Coby's exit; second is Steph's popularity. So here's what has to happen. At 7, Gregg would have to get Caryn to come along with the plan. She would effectively become an S5 Jan, but that's ok because she gets farther in the game. But there has to be a 4th person to go along with this.
I don't see Steph going along with this for 2 reasons. One, it doesn't get her any farther in the game. If she ends up with Katie, Ian, Tom, then she's 4th. If she's with Gregg, Jenn, Caryn, she's still 4th. Now, she might have a better shot at immunity with that second group, but it doesn't really help her that much. But the second reason is the animosity of Jenn toward Steph. Jenn isn't going to want to keep Steph, knowing that she's more of a competitor and would probably beat her in a challenge. So because Gregg and Jenn aren't going to be able to flop the game like they wanted, they need to appear like this plan never existed. So Steph is the best bet to boot at this point. Just better for the remaining Koror. One of the interesting things that came up during last night's episode was that the alliances were revealed to EVERYONE. So Katie is now aware of Gregg/Jenn's plan to flop, and, as a result, so are Tom/Ian. So K/I/T may decide that it's better to keep Caryn instead of G/J. (Haven't we learned from Romber that you have to split the alliance up before the end of the game?!) Even though Caryn had some animosity toward Katie early on, I think she the smarts (or at least more than Coby did) to keep her mouth shut and try to make nice with everyone.
So I see Gregg going next as the biggest challenge threat, followed by Jenn. This leaves a F4 of K/I/T plus Caryn. Caryn is the outsider. She has to win immunity, and she just isn't going to beat Tom. Bye Bye, Caryn. Tom is going to win immunity at F3, regardless of what the challenge is, but especially if it's an endurance challenge. His smartest move to win is to take Katie. My PTTE:
8 - Janu 7 - Steph 6 - Gregg 5 - Jenn 4 - Caryn 3 - Ian 2 - Katie 1 - Tom
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fallingtogether 85 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-15-05, 09:06 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Last night's vote was very telling" |
John Mc - Good analysis. However, I'd disagree with one point:"I don't see Steph going along with this for 2 reasons. One, it doesn't get her any farther in the game." Actually, I think if she went with G/J it WOULD get her further. We know that Gregg and Jenn are tight but we have no idea how close Gregg and Caryn are, or Jenn and Caryn. Therefore, if Steph went with them she could form an alliance with Caryn to take each other to the finals or at least forcing a 2-2 tie in the final four. If she went with T/I/K, she's doomed because (A) she could never beat Tom at immunity; and (B) she knows that Tom and Ian are tight and that they both realize that they could win against Katie, making them tight with Katie. With Gregg/Jenn/Caryn, Steph would at least have a chance.
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lovwigglesworth 239 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-15-05, 02:50 PM (EST)
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9. "Did they go straight to tribal council?" |
Was there time to talk between the challenge and TC? Everyone knew Janu and Coby were tight, they probably just figured they couldn't tell her the plan because she would go straight to him. Everyone else was in the loop that he was the choice. So Coby and Janu thought they were going with what was probably the original plan of Janu and Janu just voted for Steph figuring if there was any slim chance of an alternate plan it would be her. Second theory of mine (having to do with the let-Tom-win rumor/spoiler that has been mentioned) was that after Coby and Janu jumped they rest of them did a "pass it on, Coby's next, we can go ahead and jump at the next food" type of thing. Steph and Caryn, being the only other two left in danger at all, may not have completely believed the plan so went ahead and stayed longer. But they both knew they could not outlast Tom, so what the heck when the pizza came, I guess.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-16-05, 03:22 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Did they go straight to tribal council?" |
When Stephenie came back to camp after her talk with Coby, she mentionned to katie and Jenn everything he had told her except Gregg's plan to turn on Tom. Maybe it was edited out but I was listening for it and didn't hear her mention Gregg at all. I think she may be keeping that info for the right moment. As far as the votes are concerned, does anyone have a clue as to why Gregg voted for Coby? The only reasons I can come up with is that Coby had gotten so much on Tom and Ian's nerve that Gregg couldn't save him without showing his hand or, more interestingly, he never had planned to go with Coby but instead had served as a mole for his alliance with Tom to see what Coby was thinking. That would make the alliance of 5 a lot stronger than we've thought.
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fallingtogether 85 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-16-05, 07:52 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Did they go straight to tribal council?" |
I like the idea of Gregg as a mole (I also LOVED The Mole series) but I don't think that's the case. I think Gregg really did have that as a plan. When they decided to vote off Coby, Gregg couldn't save him without showing his hand. I think Gregg had to revamp is plan. I explained how Gregg needs to take action this week in order for him to get to the end (that's all in a message above). But I think right now he believes that he's closer to Tom and Ian than he really is, which will become his downfall.
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