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"EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-22-04, 01:43 AM (EST)
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"EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
CONFESSIONAL COUNT ALINTA TRIBE ..............EP1
EP2
EP3
EP4
EP5
EP6
EP7
EP8
EP9
EP10
TOTAL Eliza
6
..3
..3
..5
..2
..0
..2
..3
..4
..5
..33
Chris
..4
..2
..0
..2
..0
..1
..1
..6
..4
..5
..25
Twila
..2
..2
..2
..1
..1
..4
2
..4
..4
..1
..23
Ami
.1
..1
..0
..1
..5
..1
..2
..2
..2
..6
..21
Scout
.3
..1
..0
3
..0
..1
..1
2
..2
..3
..16
Julie
1
..1
..0
..2
..1
..3
..2
..2
..2
..0
..14
Leeann
.3
..1
..1
..2
..1
..2
..0
..0
..3
..0
..13 Chad
..2
..0
..0
..1
..1
..1
..3
..3
..0
..3(Boot)
14
Lea
.4
..0
..2
..2
..2
..5
..2
..7
..5(Boot)
29
Rory
3
..2
..1
..6
..2
..6
..7
..6(Boot)
33 Merge
John K
..1
..0
..4
..1
..2
..0
..6(boot)
14
Lisa
.1
..0
..1
..2
..1
..3(boot)
8
Travis
.3
..2
..0
..2
..4(boot)
11
Brady
.4
..0
..0
..5(Boot)
9
Mia
..3
..1
..4(Boot)
8
John P
..2
..1
..4(Boot)
7
Dolly
..1
..4(Boot)
5
Brooke
.5(Boot)
5
BOOT PATTERN
The editing pattern went back to hiding the next boot in the episode prior to their departure. Chad had zero confessionals in the episode before his boot. Chad was S9s Zoe/Darrah.
NARRATORS
Chris and Eliza have become the post merge narrators. This bodes well for them making it to the final four.
CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT
Ami had the biggest spike last week with six confessionals. Many of them came while on the reward trip. Her character was softened somewhat as she described the children and her wonderful reward experience. This may be leading up to her being hidden next week prior to her boot
CONCLUSIONS:
Leann and Julie were hidden last week with neither one getting any confessionals. Both are boot targets based on the classic boot pattern weve seen so often this season
according to Snewser, that pattern will continue and Leann will go this week finishing off with the classic boot episode spike. Chris and Eliza are our narrators who, much like Kathy Obrien, should make it to the final four based on that pattern. Game Logic tells us that Ami will be in trouble once Leann is gone and her confessional spike last week may be setting her up to be hidden this week followed by her departure in EP12. 
Krautboy
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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-22-04, 03:06 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
I wouldn't overlook Twilla. These people don't seem to like IC threats or winnners. Twilla's win had to be a stunner to some, and really opend a lot of eyes.
Confessional Analaysis is pointing towards a Julie or LeAnn boot, I just haven't seen anything other than that to point towards here as a boot candidate. I haven't seen any evidence to point towards anybody else.
 DRONES
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-22-04, 06:39 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
Wow, this confessional analysis has been amazing this season! It sure points to a Leann or Julie boot this episode. And as you have pointed out, it does look like smooth sailing ahead for Chris and Eliza, perhaps that little encounter they have this week with Chris telling Eliza that she can trust him, and that this is how she stays, is not misdirection but blatant foreshadowing afterall! What a great tool for us this season Krautboy, and thanks so much for doing it and updating as we progress through the season!
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-22-04, 09:06 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-04 AT 09:33 AM (EST)I also really enjoy this analysis along with the others, great deduction tool. Kudos and props and whatever else, thanks for doing it. But (you probably knew this was coming); Am I missing something here? If we are talking about post-merge patterns using just the pre-boot and boot episodes, we have; Rory Pre-boot ep. - 7 Boot ep. 6
Sarge Pre-boot ep. - 7 Boot ep. 5
Chad Pre-boot ep. - 0 Boot ep. 3 This is way inconclusive as an indicator that the pattern has definitely changed, that MB is into a different pattern that will continue next week. All this tells us so far is that they like to mix things up. Concluding from this pattern that Julie and Leanne (who have 0 confessionals each, as did Chad) are the only people in trouble has a certain logical weakness. One could say with equal logic (actually more, 2 examples to 1) that Chris or Eliza (with 5 conf. each) or esp. Ami (with 6) are most in danger. As to the Zoe/Darrah example, what happened in the succeeding weeks after that boot? Did the hide the bootee pattern hold up? Was that an isolated incidence? What have been the patterns in the other Survivors? If this has been established as the pattern that is generally followed then the logic is strengthened. If not, then the only reasonable conclusion we can draw from this is that Twila and Scout are relatively safe, and that all the others are more in danger. ETA: OK I see the pattern in the Pre-merge boots that back up the "hide the bootee confessionals" idea. I still think that the idea that the boot pattern has changed based on last weeks boot is slightly premature, but I see what I was missing.
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Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-22-04, 10:08 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
Rory and Sarge are exceptions to the rule, as they were both "narrators" for the first half of the game. Usually tho, when this happens, one of the pre-merge narrators is a LOCK to just miss the jury. In this case, both of them got voted out right after the merge.Other "narrators" who *just* missed the jury:
Boston Rob (S4)
Shii-Ann (S5)
Andrew (S7) 
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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11-22-04, 10:46 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
Could this latest count show us the final four? Eliza, Chris, Ami and Scout are the prominent ones. Perhaps Leann goes this week as suggested by Snewser, Twila next week due to her indeciveness or a "freaking purple rock", and and Julie goes at F5 as predicted by Chris a few episodes back?
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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-23-04, 12:50 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
Don't you mean: Chris, TWILA, Eliza, (Scout or Ami)? Personally, I think Ami's softening puts her into the final four over Scout, at the least I think she get's to 5 over Julie. I agree that confessionals point to Leann and Julie as next boot, and add that it's for the next two boots, first Leann, then Julie.
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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-24-04, 03:53 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
I disagree, Pinchy, that Ami's "softening" means she's final four. Rather, I feel that it's her story coming to an end.I thought the "softening" thing was discordant and badly done from an editing point of view, so much so that it seemed out of character for Ami to be so sappy and gushing over those kids. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of "redemption" moment, fitting in with something Veruca Salt identifies in her Editing thread - the way editing makes Ami one minute the cold, calculating villain, and the next minute the strong, decisive, pro-women advocate saving them from themselves. Like I said, though, for me this "soft" Ami came as such a surprise that it ended up seeming disingenuous, as if she were laying it on thick in pursuance of her agenda. Certainly, the fact that this was not a traditional reward challenge where you get pampered was helpful to her, as she was able to parlay the experience into something humbling and thus not incite the envy of the others at a point in the game where ANYTHING could work to solidify anti-Ami sentiment. Frankly, I thought it was the worst reward ever. Being surrounded by singing brats is my idea of hell. ::grin:: So it's one thing or the other. Either Ami is being "softened" so viewers won't be disappointed with a "strident dyke" going far into the game. Or Ami's story is being rounded out so we can close the book on her. In either case, something needed to happen with Ami because she's been a central character but not very dimensional in terms of what we know about her. All we know about her, really, is that she's Pro Women. Personally, I think the attempt to make Ami "likeable" with the warbling infants stunt is because she's due a boot soon and it's Burnett's way of thanking her for being a strong point of interest thus far and sending her out into oblivion with something more nuanced than "militant man-hater" for the average viewer to remember her by.
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Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-22-04, 10:55 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
I think that Julie's totals have to be discounted somewhat as she, more than Chad, is this season's Darrah. Someone who just has no personality, but makes it to nearly the end with very few confessionals per show.I do agree with you about Ami tho. MAJOR spike in confessionals, plus typical MB "softening" (while on the reward trip) says to me that she is probably the Episode 12 boot.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-22-04, 11:13 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
BOOT PATTERNThe editing pattern went back to hiding the next boot in the episode prior to their departure. Chad had zero confessionals in the episode before his boot. Chad was S9s Zoe/Darrah. Likewise Leann had no confessionals last week, after getting a spike in visibility the episode before with her reward trip. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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11-22-04, 01:39 PM (EST)
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8. "Just a comment..." |
If I recall correctly, Ami's confessionals were really separate occasions. Wasn't much of it essentially one long narrative confessional interspersed with the actual happenings of the reward?
©Forged by RollDdice.
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agressionx 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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11-25-04, 11:13 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
If the hidden pattens holds up, I think Julie well be the ep 12 boot...was she even in tonights show....Amy had several confessionals so it would appear that she wins immunity next week and at least makes it to final five
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tinybubs 547 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-26-04, 09:35 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis" |
You're right about the absence of face time for Julie. I tracked the confessionals during the episode and Julie had none. Considering how few players are left in the game it does look suspicious that she had almost no time on screen. It doesn't look good for Julie next week based on the established pattern.
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