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Original Message
"EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by Krautboy on 11-22-04 at 01:43 AM
CONFESSIONAL COUNT

ALINTA TRIBE

..............EP1…EP2…EP3…EP4…EP5…EP6…EP7…EP8…EP9…EP10…TOTAL

Eliza………………6…..3…..3…..5…..2…..0…..2…..3…..4…..5…..33
Chris……………..4…..2…..0…..2…..0…..1…..1…..6…..4…..5…..25
Twila……………..2…..2…..2…..1…..1…..4……2…..4…..4…..1…..23
Ami……………….1…..1…..0…..1…..5…..1…..2…..2…..2…..6…..21
Scout…………….3…..1…..0……3…..0…..1…..1……2…..2…..3…..16
Julie……………… 1…..1…..0…..2…..1…..3…..2…..2…..2…..0…..14
Leeann………….3…..1…..1…..2…..1…..2…..0…..0…..3…..0…..13

Chad……………..2…..0…..0…..1…..1…..1…..3…..3…..0…..3(Boot)…14
Lea…… ………….4…..0…..2…..2…..2…..5…..2…..7…..5(Boot)…29
Rory………………3…..2…..1…..6…..2…..6…..7…..6(Boot)…33

Merge
John K…………..1…..0…..4…..1…..2…..0…..6(boot)…14
Lisa……………….1…..0…..1…..2…..1…..3(boot)…8
Travis…………….3…..2…..0…..2…..4(boot)…11
Brady…………….4…..0…..0…..5(Boot)…9
Mia………………..3…..1…..4(Boot)…8
John P…………..2…..1…..4(Boot)…7
Dolly……………..1…..4(Boot)…5
Brooke ………….5(Boot)…5


BOOT PATTERN

The editing pattern went back to “hiding” the next boot in the episode prior to their departure. Chad had zero confessionals in the episode before his boot. Chad was S9’s Zoe/Darrah.


NARRATORS

Chris and Eliza have become the post merge narrators. This bodes well for them making it to the final four.


CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT

Ami had the biggest spike last week with six confessionals. Many of them came while on the reward trip. Her character was softened somewhat as she described the children and her wonderful reward experience. This may be leading up to her being “hidden” next week prior to her boot…


CONCLUSIONS:

Leann and Julie were “hidden” last week with neither one getting any confessionals. Both are boot targets based on the classic boot pattern we’ve seen so often this season…according to Snewser, that pattern will continue and Leann will go this week finishing off with the classic boot episode spike.

Chris and Eliza are our narrators who, much like Kathy O’brien, should make it to the final four based on that pattern.

Game Logic tells us that Ami will be in trouble once Leann is gone and her confessional spike last week may be setting her up to be “hidden” this week followed by her departure in EP12.


Krautboy

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Messages in this discussion
"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by DRONES on 11-22-04 at 03:06 AM
I wouldn't overlook Twilla. These people don't seem to like IC threats or winnners. Twilla's win had to be a stunner to some, and really opend a lot of eyes.
Confessional Analaysis is pointing towards a Julie or LeAnn boot, I just haven't seen anything other than that to point towards here as a boot candidate. I haven't seen any evidence to point towards anybody else.


DRONES

"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by Flowerpower on 11-22-04 at 06:39 AM
Wow, this confessional analysis has been amazing this season! It sure points to a Leann or Julie boot this episode. And as you have pointed out, it does look like smooth sailing ahead for Chris and Eliza, perhaps that little encounter they have this week with Chris telling Eliza that she can trust him, and that this is how she stays, is not misdirection but blatant foreshadowing afterall! What a great tool for us this season Krautboy, and thanks so much for doing it and updating as we progress through the season!

"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by kingfish on 11-22-04 at 09:06 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-04 AT 09:33 AM (EST)

I also really enjoy this analysis along with the others, great deduction tool. Kudos and props and whatever else, thanks for doing it.

But (you probably knew this was coming);

Am I missing something here? If we are talking about post-merge patterns using just the pre-boot and boot episodes, we have;

Rory Pre-boot ep. - 7 Boot ep. – 6
Sarge Pre-boot ep. - 7 Boot ep. – 5
Chad Pre-boot ep. - 0 Boot ep. – 3

This is way inconclusive as an indicator that the pattern has definitely changed, that MB is into a different pattern that will continue next week. All this tells us so far is that they like to mix things up.

Concluding from this pattern that Julie and Leanne (who have 0 confessionals each, as did Chad) are the only people in trouble has a certain logical weakness. One could say with equal logic (actually more, 2 examples to 1) that Chris or Eliza (with 5 conf. each) or esp. Ami (with 6) are most in danger.

As to the Zoe/Darrah example, what happened in the succeeding weeks after that boot? Did the “hide the bootee” pattern hold up? Was that an isolated incidence? What have been the patterns in the other Survivors? If this has been established as the pattern that is generally followed then the logic is strengthened.

If not, then the only reasonable conclusion we can draw from this is that Twila and Scout are relatively safe, and that all the others are more in danger.

ETA: OK I see the pattern in the Pre-merge boots that back up the "hide the bootee confessionals" idea. I still think that the idea that the boot pattern has changed based on last weeks boot is slightly premature, but I see what I was missing.

"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by Draco Malfoy on 11-22-04 at 10:08 AM
Rory and Sarge are exceptions to the rule, as they were both "narrators" for the first half of the game. Usually tho, when this happens, one of the pre-merge narrators is a LOCK to just miss the jury. In this case, both of them got voted out right after the merge.

Other "narrators" who *just* missed the jury:
Boston Rob (S4)
Shii-Ann (S5)
Andrew (S7)

"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by zazzy on 11-22-04 at 10:46 AM
Could this latest count show us the final four? Eliza, Chris, Ami and Scout are the prominent ones. Perhaps Leann goes this week as suggested by Snewser, Twila next week due to her indeciveness or a "freaking purple rock", and and Julie goes at F5 as predicted by Chris a few episodes back?
"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by pinchy on 11-23-04 at 12:50 PM
Don't you mean: Chris, TWILA, Eliza, (Scout or Ami)? Personally, I think Ami's softening puts her into the final four over Scout, at the least I think she get's to 5 over Julie. I agree that confessionals point to Leann and Julie as next boot, and add that it's for the next two boots, first Leann, then Julie.
"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by Loquatrix on 11-24-04 at 03:53 PM
I disagree, Pinchy, that Ami's "softening" means she's final four. Rather, I feel that it's her story coming to an end.

I thought the "softening" thing was discordant and badly done from an editing point of view, so much so that it seemed out of character for Ami to be so sappy and gushing over those kids. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of "redemption" moment, fitting in with something Veruca Salt identifies in her Editing thread - the way editing makes Ami one minute the cold, calculating villain, and the next minute the strong, decisive, pro-women advocate saving them from themselves.

Like I said, though, for me this "soft" Ami came as such a surprise that it ended up seeming disingenuous, as if she were laying it on thick in pursuance of her agenda. Certainly, the fact that this was not a traditional reward challenge where you get pampered was helpful to her, as she was able to parlay the experience into something humbling and thus not incite the envy of the others at a point in the game where ANYTHING could work to solidify anti-Ami sentiment. Frankly, I thought it was the worst reward ever. Being surrounded by singing brats is my idea of hell. ::grin::

So it's one thing or the other. Either Ami is being "softened" so viewers won't be disappointed with a "strident dyke" going far into the game. Or Ami's story is being rounded out so we can close the book on her. In either case, something needed to happen with Ami because she's been a central character but not very dimensional in terms of what we know about her. All we know about her, really, is that she's Pro Women. Personally, I think the attempt to make Ami "likeable" with the warbling infants stunt is because she's due a boot soon and it's Burnett's way of thanking her for being a strong point of interest thus far and sending her out into oblivion with something more nuanced than "militant man-hater" for the average viewer to remember her by.

"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by Draco Malfoy on 11-22-04 at 10:55 AM
I think that Julie's totals have to be discounted somewhat as she, more than Chad, is this season's Darrah. Someone who just has no personality, but makes it to nearly the end with very few confessionals per show.

I do agree with you about Ami tho. MAJOR spike in confessionals, plus typical MB "softening" (while on the reward trip) says to me that she is probably the Episode 12 boot.

"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by Brownroach on 11-22-04 at 11:13 AM
BOOT PATTERN

The editing pattern went back to “hiding” the next boot in the episode prior to their departure. Chad had zero confessionals in the episode before his boot. Chad was S9’s Zoe/Darrah.

Likewise Leann had no confessionals last week, after getting a spike in visibility the episode before with her reward trip.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"Just a comment..."
Posted by aethelstan on 11-22-04 at 01:39 PM
If I recall correctly, Ami's confessionals were really separate occasions. Wasn't much of it essentially one long narrative confessional interspersed with the actual happenings of the reward?


©Forged by RollDdice.
"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by agressionx on 11-25-04 at 11:13 PM
If the hidden pattens holds up, I think Julie well be the ep 12 boot...was she even in tonights show....Amy had several confessionals so it would appear that she wins immunity next week and at least makes it to final five
"RE: EP10 Confessional Analysis"
Posted by tinybubs on 11-26-04 at 09:35 AM
You're right about the absence of face time for Julie. I tracked the confessionals during the episode and Julie had none.

Considering how few players are left in the game it does look suspicious that she had almost no time on screen. It doesn't look good for Julie next week based on the established pattern.