Nice post, but I want to poke at your theory to get some good discussion going.<<ShiANn was the other all star that had big problems in the tribal portion of survivor. She got 3 votes in episode 3, 2 votes in episode 5 and 1 vote in episode 6.>>
Shii Ann was a target from minor alliance of Robb, Steph, and Jed. Those were the three that voted against her prior to the merge. She was also the 5th person of the 5 person alliance of Jake, Ken, Erin, and Penny. Those 4 were going to be the final 4 (had their plan succeeded), and they'd have dropped Shii off at 5. Her only hope in her game was to go to the other team at the merge. She played the hand, but was foiled by EPM's fake merge.
Shii Ann could have played her tribal hand much better than she did. She will need to do better with King Richard and crew if she is to do better this time around.
<<Among the All-stars, Rudy had the most difficulty in making it to the merge. He was a big target in the episode 1 and episode 3 IC. he got 3 votes in episode 1 (barely beating Sonja's 4 votes) and 2 votes in episode 3. He also got a vote in episode 5.>>
Agreed. Rudy got a few votes, and then the "evil Tagi alliance" took over. He rode the alliance to F3. You can't just ride an alliance anymore, but he did it then. Rudy wasn't nearly as contentious as he was the first time. He just had problems w/his ankle. Short of that (and the problem he had at the challenge that caused the injury), he probably would have lasted longer and Ethan would have gotten the boot.
<<Tom almost got voted out in episode 6. He got 3 votes and was lucky enough to win the tie breaker.>>
Tom was only targeted because they thought he was the dumbest of him, Lex, and Kelly. Besides, he won the tie breaker because he didn't have any prior votes and Lindsay did. Had it turned into a pure tie w/0 prior votes to 0 prior votes (like what happened to Carl), Tom may have had been booted. Because of purple rock, we won't see anything like that situation happen again.
<<Rupert faced a mutiny in the Pearl Islands was a bootee target and got a couple of votes in episode 6.>>
Valid point. Rupert was too strong. He could have run the gamut because he got in good with the Morgans, and he was already tight with Christa and Sandra. He was going to take his three and Andrew's 3 (w/Ryan and Darrah) to F6 and get rid of the Outcasts. Andrew couldn't commit, and if he had he'd have made the jury. Rupert, though, did show how strong he was, and he needed to hold back some. He wants to be the provider, and he's doing that again w/Saboga when he caught the fish. But if he shows himself to be too strong, he'll be a target again. Let's see if he learns from his mistakes....
<<Jenna L was a target and got a few votes in episode 6 as well.>>
She was a target of the guy (Gervase and Joel) who didn't think that they should be targets for being chauvenists. Hmm, who do you keep? The girl who's loud but doesn't complain as much, or the guy who thinks that girls are cows??? I don't think that is something that will change with future editions of this game.
<<Kathy seemed to be on the outs with her love tribe in Marquesas. However, she was lucky enough to be with a Love tribe that never lost. She was then switched to the other tribe and was part of a majority coalition from her old tribe.>>
The love tribe was the element that saved Kathy. But it is a life's lesson to know that you can change how you interact with people and in the end, most people wanted to give Kathy the million instead of Vee or Neleh. Kathy is a better person now because of the experience, and she will play a different game here. She'll be real, and that's why we love her, and it's why we want her on All-Stars.
<<Rob M would probably have been voted out in episode 5 of Marquesas if Gabe had not acted like a real idiot after his tribe lost. Gabe's naivete saved Rob.>>
Agreed. Rotu had the numbers to get rid of Gabe and still maintain voting control of the tribe. They were smart to not throw any challenges, because they knew that they could keep control in their tribe as well as at the merge. Rob should have been booted sooner, and they got rid of him as soon as possible. They also wanted to keep him off the jury, so they kept Sean instead. Ultimately that was definitely the better choice.