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"Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by esquire on 02-09-04 at 04:53 PM
I thought it would be interesting as well as a bit probative to look back and see which of the current all-stars had some difficulty surviving the pre-merge tribe portion of the game. It could be an indication on who will have difficulty in surviving the pre-merge portion of the all star competition and who might have difficulty in doing well with those set of interpersonal dynamics

Among the All-stars, Rudy had the most difficulty in making it to the merge. He was a big target in the episode 1 and episode 3 IC. he got 3 votes in episode 1 (barely beating Sonja's 4 votes) and 2 votes in episode 3. He also got a vote in episode 5.

ShiANn was the other all star that had big problems in the tribal portion of survivor. She got 3 votes in episode 3, 2 votes in episode 5 and 1 vote in episode 6.

Several other all stars had 1 big pre merge scare. Tom almost got voted out in episode 6. He got 3 votes and was lucky enough to win the tie breaker. Rupert faced a mutiny in the Pearl Islands was a bootee target and got a couple of votes in episode 6. It took some help by Sandra and Christa and some fast action by the Rupster to save his tush. Jenna L was a target and got a few votes in episode 6 as well.

A few other all stars got 1 vote in one premerge episode (Sue, Jerri, Kathy, Rob M and Jenna M). None of them were really in serious danger of losing those votes.

Beyond checking the actual vote counts at the CBS web site, I recall 3 of the all stars actually being in real danger of being voted out pre-merge. Kathy seemed to be on the outs with her love tribe in Marquesas. However, she was lucky enough to be with a Love tribe that never lost. She was then switched to the other tribe and was part of a majority coalition from her old tribe.

Rob M would probably have been voted out in episode 5 of Marquesas if Gabe had not acted like a real idiot after his tribe lost. Gabe's naivete saved Rob.

Although he didn't get any votes, I had the feeling that Rob C was not doing well with his old tribe and was in danger of getting voted out in the early stages of the game as well.

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Messages in this discussion
"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by Brownroach on 02-09-04 at 05:12 PM
You could argue that Tina might have been in trouble had she not been able to flip Colby in Ep 4. She was not on Jerri's list of friends, so if Keith had been voted out instead of Bitchell, Tina would have been next to go out of Ogakor. Circumstances worked out in her favor, but she wasn't in the safest position early on.

Alicia was made to look like an alternate target in the Kimmi boot episode, but it's unclear if she was ever really in danger, since Kimmi didn't vote for her.


"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by esquire on 02-09-04 at 05:25 PM
>You could argue that Tina might
>have been in trouble had
>she not been able to
>flip Colby in Ep 4.
> She was not on
>Jerri's list of friends, so
>if Keith had been voted
>out instead of Bitchell, Tina
>would have been next to
>go out of Ogakor. Circumstances
>worked out in her favor,
>but she wasn't in the
>safest position early on.

Interesting point that I had not considered. Although Tina was not portrayed as being in any trouble (at least I don't remember her being portrayed that way), you are probably right. If Keith had been voted out and if her tribe had lost another IC, her head would probably have been on the block
>
>Alicia was made to look like
>an alternate target in the
>Kimmi boot episode, but it's
>unclear if she was ever
>really in danger, since Kimmi
>didn't vote for her.

Since none of her tribemates voted for her (including Kimmi who had the finger waved in her face), I am assuming that Alicia was not in any real danger of being voted out.

"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by Brownroach on 02-09-04 at 05:30 PM
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-04 AT 05:31 PM (EST)

So let's look at the flip side of the equation: who sailed through the pre-merge part of the game without ever being remotely in danger?

Colby and Amber did in S2. Maybe Alicia as well.
Did Lex and Ethan in S3? (I didn't watch it.)
Did Richard get any pre-merge votes in S1 -- I don't remember.
Anyone else?


"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by blacknwhitedog on 02-09-04 at 05:51 PM
Richard Hatch did not get any pre-merge votes against in S1, however Jenna Lewis did.

"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by blacknwhitedog on 02-09-04 at 05:57 PM
S2- Jerri had votes against before the merge, but Alicia did not.

S3- Tom had votes against before the merge, Lex and Ethan did not.

"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by JohnMc on 02-09-04 at 06:25 PM
Colby, Amber, and Alicia did make it through S2 w/o any votes before the merge.

Lex and Ethan weren't targets in their games either.

Rich wasn't in trouble pre-merge, but he was forming alliances. He was going to be safe until they had to start turning in on the alliance.

"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 02-10-04 at 06:24 AM

>Did Lex and Ethan in S3?
>(I didn't watch it.)

Neither got a vote at any time until the very end -- I believe Ethan didn't receive a single vote the entire show.


>Did Richard get any pre-merge votes
>in S1 -- I don't remember.

Dicque got a vote in episode 7 and three in episode 9 when JennaL was voted out 4-3. But what I remember was that Dicque felt he was in real trouble of being voted out in the first episode when he loafed around the first two days and let his tribe do all the work -- after his tribe lost the first IC, he played the gay sympathy card with some of the women, pleading with them to not target him for the first boot.



"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by Brownroach on 02-10-04 at 10:41 AM
I thought Lex went on a witch-hunt at some point because someone threw a vote at him. That couldn't have been at F3 (but I assume it was post-merge).


"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by esquire on 02-10-04 at 10:51 AM
>I thought Lex went on a
>witch-hunt at some point because
>someone threw a vote at
>him. That couldn't have
>been at F3 (but I
>assume it was post-merge).

Lex went on his absurd witch hunt in episode 7. It was the first vote after the merge, but not a vote for a jury member. It led to the end og=f one of my favorite players, Kelly G

"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by idiotcowboy on 02-10-04 at 10:57 AM
Lex got a vote on the merge episode.

The vote off was Clarence and the IC winner (girl who reminded me of Tina, I forget her name) voted for Lex, because she played rock-paper-scissors with him to determine the IC winner and promised not to vote for him.

Brandon then used the "mystery" Lex vote to convince Lex there was a rat in the group (which his "gut" incorrectly decided was Kelly)... it was brilliant until Brandon in the same episode lost his mind and helped the Boran boys vote of Kelly intstead of the intended target Lex.

-ICB

PS: BR, you got a pretty good memory for someone who didnt watch that season

"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by Brownroach on 02-10-04 at 11:29 AM
It's funny -- I wasn't following the spoiler boards during S3 either, but just from reading stuff on here subsequently, I have a pretty good handle on how the whole show went down.


"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 02-10-04 at 12:13 PM
I stand corrected, yes Lex did get a couple of votes from Teresa and Clarence as T-Bone wouldn't vote against Clarence as a thank-you for the paper-rock-scissors win. Now that I think about it, I can't believe Lex didn't figure out it was Teresa considering she shook hands with Clarence at the end of TC when she beat him.

And, BR? You didn't miss too much. It was the worst of the 7 seasons with only Thailand (in my opinion) coming close.



"RE: Prior pre-merge problems"
Posted by JohnMc on 02-09-04 at 06:17 PM
Nice post, but I want to poke at your theory to get some good discussion going.

<<ShiANn was the other all star that had big problems in the tribal portion of survivor. She got 3 votes in episode 3, 2 votes in episode 5 and 1 vote in episode 6.>>

Shii Ann was a target from minor alliance of Robb, Steph, and Jed. Those were the three that voted against her prior to the merge. She was also the 5th person of the 5 person alliance of Jake, Ken, Erin, and Penny. Those 4 were going to be the final 4 (had their plan succeeded), and they'd have dropped Shii off at 5. Her only hope in her game was to go to the other team at the merge. She played the hand, but was foiled by EPM's fake merge.

Shii Ann could have played her tribal hand much better than she did. She will need to do better with King Richard and crew if she is to do better this time around.

<<Among the All-stars, Rudy had the most difficulty in making it to the merge. He was a big target in the episode 1 and episode 3 IC. he got 3 votes in episode 1 (barely beating Sonja's 4 votes) and 2 votes in episode 3. He also got a vote in episode 5.>>

Agreed. Rudy got a few votes, and then the "evil Tagi alliance" took over. He rode the alliance to F3. You can't just ride an alliance anymore, but he did it then. Rudy wasn't nearly as contentious as he was the first time. He just had problems w/his ankle. Short of that (and the problem he had at the challenge that caused the injury), he probably would have lasted longer and Ethan would have gotten the boot.

<<Tom almost got voted out in episode 6. He got 3 votes and was lucky enough to win the tie breaker.>>

Tom was only targeted because they thought he was the dumbest of him, Lex, and Kelly. Besides, he won the tie breaker because he didn't have any prior votes and Lindsay did. Had it turned into a pure tie w/0 prior votes to 0 prior votes (like what happened to Carl), Tom may have had been booted. Because of purple rock, we won't see anything like that situation happen again.

<<Rupert faced a mutiny in the Pearl Islands was a bootee target and got a couple of votes in episode 6.>>

Valid point. Rupert was too strong. He could have run the gamut because he got in good with the Morgans, and he was already tight with Christa and Sandra. He was going to take his three and Andrew's 3 (w/Ryan and Darrah) to F6 and get rid of the Outcasts. Andrew couldn't commit, and if he had he'd have made the jury. Rupert, though, did show how strong he was, and he needed to hold back some. He wants to be the provider, and he's doing that again w/Saboga when he caught the fish. But if he shows himself to be too strong, he'll be a target again. Let's see if he learns from his mistakes....

<<Jenna L was a target and got a few votes in episode 6 as well.>>

She was a target of the guy (Gervase and Joel) who didn't think that they should be targets for being chauvenists. Hmm, who do you keep? The girl who's loud but doesn't complain as much, or the guy who thinks that girls are cows??? I don't think that is something that will change with future editions of this game.

<<Kathy seemed to be on the outs with her love tribe in Marquesas. However, she was lucky enough to be with a Love tribe that never lost. She was then switched to the other tribe and was part of a majority coalition from her old tribe.>>

The love tribe was the element that saved Kathy. But it is a life's lesson to know that you can change how you interact with people and in the end, most people wanted to give Kathy the million instead of Vee or Neleh. Kathy is a better person now because of the experience, and she will play a different game here. She'll be real, and that's why we love her, and it's why we want her on All-Stars.

<<Rob M would probably have been voted out in episode 5 of Marquesas if Gabe had not acted like a real idiot after his tribe lost. Gabe's naivete saved Rob.>>

Agreed. Rotu had the numbers to get rid of Gabe and still maintain voting control of the tribe. They were smart to not throw any challenges, because they knew that they could keep control in their tribe as well as at the merge. Rob should have been booted sooner, and they got rid of him as soon as possible. They also wanted to keep him off the jury, so they kept Sean instead. Ultimately that was definitely the better choice.