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"Failed and Successful Strategies"
SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 08:03 AM (EST)
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"Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Well, I might as well make an attempt to contribute something meaningful to the Spoiler community here.As we know, MB never shows successful strategies until he has to, and he DOES show failed strategies readily. So far we've seen these various strategies (and some of this is taken from other thresds, please don't take offense if I don't properly credit you): 1) Ryan/Daniel/Matthew - shown making the 3-way alliance in Ep. 1, of course Ryan was booted then. Daniel and Matthew speaking Chinese, Daniel "outing" Mateo during Tribal Council. Of course Daniel has also been booted, and the SeeBS Misdirection says that Matthew is going to be "pointedly" left alone next time. 2) Jeanne/Joanna - as other threads point out, Jeanne has stirred up trouble, using Joanna. Or maybe Joanna is in it. No outcome yet. 2a) One specific example of the above - making Deena the leader. This may backfire on Jeanne/Joanna later. 3) The "Pretty People" alliance - Heidi/Shawna/Jenna. We did not see this alliance blow Janet right out of the water (i.e. the game) in Ep. 2, but we're starting to see it now. With a preview showing Shawna feeling ill and thinking of quitting (which she will probably do later, not in Ep. 4), there may be cracks in it now. 4) Dave's "strategy" of telling everyone that he doesn't trust anyone. 5) Alex was focused on in Ep. 3, shown being in the middle, making a supposedly big decision of which way to go, and supposedly having others' (e.g. Rob's) decisions based on his. 6) Also, Alex and Roger's discussion of a (shall we say) "political" issue. This could've been shown for later results involving Roger, Alex, or both. Too early to tell yet. What we did not see: 1) Deena and Christy. While we've seen Deena "initiated" into the leadership position, and her executing said duties, we've seen little else of her. While we've seen Christy's frustration at the way she's been treated (and I think this is MB making a moral statement and not necessarily game-related), we've not seen much else. We did see one small snippet in Ep. 2, where Christy was frustrated. It was Deena that first reacted to Christy, and tried to help her out. Christy and Deena may have formed an alliance that will ultimately prove strong and successful. 2) Roger/Butch's alliance has been shown by necessity, but not emphasized. 3) Dave's relations with Roger and Butch has not been shown very much. I suspect he's in stronger with them than we're being shown. Please add to these, or rip them apart, but please do discuss.   
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 08:21 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
MB has been giving us clues as to who's next on each tribe. He seems to set the table so that we can see the pattern. For example, the editing made it quite reasonable that Daniel would be the next to go after Ryan.But who's next after that? Or maybe, the more accurate question is, who will Roger target? He knows that there were people willing to vote for him at the first TC but was able to stay in the game by providing a reasonable alternative in Daniel. I'm leaning toward Dave. We were shown Dave's vote during the first TC, so we knew that he voted alone. And we repeatedly heard Dave comment about not trusting anyone last night. To me, that's a setup that he's not in a strong alliance with anyone, and would therefore be vulnerable in their next TC.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 08:43 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
You may be right, Bebo, and weight-loss spoiler (or lack-of-wt.-loss in Dave's case) supports what you've said.Right now, Joanna, Dave, Alex and Shawna are the strongest pre-jury candidates (yes, I know some of you are thinking "Christy", too). I believe that TC picture with Joanna is either fake, or stunt doubles. We must also take into consideration a swap/merge, which I believe occurs in Ep. 5.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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lizziegirl 41 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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02-28-03, 10:44 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Dawg, with all due respect, I think the shot of "Joanna" at the merged TC (if it is not stunt doubles) is really Jenna. Jenna has olive pants and a red/pink shirt. Joanna does not. Based on Janet's chat on CBS, contestants could only bring one long sleeve shirt, one sleeveless shirt, one pair of shorts and one pair of pants. Also, Jenna and Joanna are the only ones in the tribe with dark hair. Plus we have spoiler info (CO) that Jenna possibly makes it to the merge or the final four, where we also have info that Joanna does not. I guess we can differ on that for now. I just think it will lead to better spoiling for the next couple of episodes, at least for those that think it is real.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 11:44 AM (EST)
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8. "A few words on video images" |
Hi lizziegirl, don't worry, I don't take offense if you disagree with me about things like the pic. Makes for good horse racing.As to videocaps overall, first, let me say that I appreciate the job Bungler and others do in providing pics, and in no way am I trying to malign or put down the excellent work that they do. However... First, there was the "Gervase-X" pic, purported to show the final four. It was a pic that MB admitted was falsified to mislead the spoiling community. And it worked. Then, in S-2, people were reviewing pics of the opening credits. I would watch these arguments with almost nauseated fascination. Then someone posted that one pic of an Aboriginal Austrailian was actually a composite of no less than SIX people... And I gave up on pics being good spoiler evidence from that moment on. The vidcaps that Bungler, et. al., gives us can be helpful in determining some clues. But pictures like this Opening Credits TC pic are probably more misleading than actually beneficial, IMHO. I personally think that pic was recreated by doubles and is not a real TC picture. MB has admitted using doubles to create certain shots and scenarios, and even goes back and refilms some things (like Chuay Ghan's boat floating off... supposedly this was re-filmed after the game was actually finished and wrapped up). So it might be Jenna, it might be Joanna, it might be none of the above. But because it's in the Opening Credits, I'm certainly not going to base my vote and quest of a 16-0 record on it.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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02-28-03, 03:23 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: A few words on video images" |
>
>First, there was the "Gervase-X" pic,
>purported to show the final
>four. It was a
>pic that MB admitted was
>falsified to mislead the spoiling
>community. And it worked. Just a point of clarification regarding the original Survivor red herrings... FF4 (or Fake Final 4) was the cap from the opening credits that many thought was the true F4. GervaseX was a red herring on the CBS Survivor web page indicating Gervase's victory/elimination (depending on which side you fell on). Black Gretchen just requires too much explaining. Dawg, your point is still valid re the caps but it wasn't GervaseX. Just for the record....
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 06:11 PM (EST)
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15. "Sacrilege!" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-03 AT 06:12 PM (EST)Vid caps are the ONLY pure spoiling evidence... Everything else is mere speculation...
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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 08:36 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Sacrilege!" |
Here, here... have some catnip and kibbles to calm you down, Icey!I'm still strongly believing that this is a FAKE TC pic with body doubles. MB has done it so many times to alter images -- don't forget to add Brandon's magic chameleon buff colour changes -- that I wouldn't put it past him to do something like this. Jenna and Joanna are both rail-thin and nearly at the point of being poster children for famine relief and the figure in the pic looks like she's got jeans on and is too stocky even with the "ghosting" of the image. And there's the two shirtless guys without bags, something we have never seen in TC before.
 
"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."
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Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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02-28-03, 11:01 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
I think you're right that there is a lot involving Christy and Deena (together or separately) that we haven't seen. Christy pointed out that, although she's the same age as the "Boobs Alliance", they exclude her indirectly (or maybe outright, but we haven't seen that). Of all the "older" women, Deena seems the most straightforward. (Joanna/Hosanna is abrasive, irritating, self-righteous and downright mean, so the target on her back is HUGE. Jeanne is a Iago-like schemer and manipulator.) Deena may not be eye candy, (in fact she's more like eye haggis) and I'm sure she's got a plan of her own, but she's more willing to work to keep the whole group together. She even seems to be accepted, if not sought out, by the Boobs Alliance. Christy would be very smart to ally with Deena, and, as you said, pull in Jeanne and Joanna to boot one of the Boobs (probably Shawna if she's genuinely sick and wants to quit - though I'd delete Heidi instead - what a b*tch!) and break up that little trio. If Joanna continues her offend-everyone offense, she would be the next to go. At least as long as the 2 tribes are separated by gender, I think it's wise to keep at least some of the Boobs around, as they seem to make the men incapable of coherent thought, much less action.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 11:39 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Just wanted to note that the "Boobs" strategy is one that I think will ultimately fail, in fact it seems to be self-defeating at this point. While it appears to be working, the fact of the matter is that every time the men have gone to TC they've booted one of the guys most susceptible to the "Boobs" strategy, which is another pattern emerging in the game."If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-28-03, 11:04 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Dawg, first let me say that it's nice to have you posting and sharing your ideas again...your insights are appreciated, and your challenges help to keep us all honest. I posted a "Strategies Revealed" comment in the misdirection thread as you were posting here. It was your point 2a. Jeanne and Joanna's strategy of nominating Deena in order to make her a target was revealed to us last episode, and therefore will not succeed. (probably when Joanna gets voted out this week...) 
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 11:29 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Yeah, Dawg, make an attempt to contribute, wouldja?  I'd just add one other item to your solid overview: Rob. We repeatedly see Rob talk about his strategy, who he's gonna rope in to vote out whom, how he's gonna play people. This is not an endgame-alliance strategy, but we see that he always determines and goes where the grass is greenest. We already had Ryan saying that this would come back to bite Rob, and now we've learned that Alex is starting to see through him.
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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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02-28-03, 12:03 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Yep, I agree roach,One of these times Rob is trying to jump over the fence to the greener side, someone like Alex will prove to be the proverbial barbed wire catching his shirt as he tries to land. This is not endgame strategy, its wishy washy behavior. Most endgame strategies are focused, and adaptable. He is only being adaptable. And your right, as Alex said, Rob has them fooled into thinking he is a pure goofball, but now they know otherwise. 
It is astonishing how foolish humans can be in groups, especially when they follow their leaders without question - States: The Bene Gesserit View. All States Are an Abstraction.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 01:54 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
I think Heidi is considered very athletic by the other females (afterall she is a PE teacher) so she is kept around even when her personality may lead them to want to boot her. Okay maybe Shawna and Jenna want to keep her. But the way Heidi talks about the others they must at least suspect this. We all know when someone is only pretending to like us. It is instinct. Women notice this. So the older ones and Christy would probably love to boot Heidi. But right now they are dominating the challenges and Heidi does well in them. So they need her. And Rob has maybe raised a little suspicion with Alex. But obviously Alex never got to tell Roger this. Roger's family has said that he was surprised at how Rob was acting behind their backs. If Alex figured this out about Rob why didn't he mention it to Roger? Does Roger or Alex get booted before they could compare notes on Rob? Does Rob keep Alex and Roger apart so they don't get to realize what the other thinks? Who is Alex aligned with? How close are Butch and Roger? I think Butch goes a long way in this game. We don't see alot of what he thinks? He seems safe in the game. But who is his closest ally? And Dave has me confused. Dave seems closer with the older guys than the young players. But is he being used?
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sittem 4186 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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02-28-03, 05:55 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Good analysis, Dawg! It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.I do want to address a couple of issues here, though I'm not sure this is the best place. I'll just go ahead. First, the Shawna illness/lack of desire to play. I can't believe this is going to lead to a quick exit on her part unless it's on merit. This seems to be a sudden turn and I don't see MB handing us this one on a platter. Looks to me more like typical misdirection. Which leds me to the three amigos alliance. I see them staying very tight and all they need is one more person to control the tribe. Who might that be? Christy? Not highly likely as she has been quite alienated from Jenna and by extension probably the others. Heidi has also spoken down about her. The only thing that might turn her is if they go after Joanna and she likes her chances better with the TA's (which doesn't make sense to me). Jeanne? I don't see it. She definietly seems more aligned with the older crowd, but she could again come into play on a Joanna vote. Deena - seems unlikely to me also. This only would play out if she sees an opportunity to take someone else down that's a threat, or if she is holding it against Jeanne and Joanna for elevating her to leadership. However, it appears that everyone is feeling pretty good about what she's done and it might not hurt her. Finally, Joanna seems the least likely to align with this vacuous bunch. Their values are just too far apart and there's also the age issue. So, as tight as the TA's are they may have shut the door on others aligning with them becuase it's obvious who's next if the other three are eliminated. I think there's enough good vibes between the other four to pick them off. Of course, that supposes that Joanna is the next one off. CO suggests this is truth. He may be right. But I don't see the logic of that right now unless everyone experiences her to be as annoying as the majority of the SB community. Here's why. First, it would seem that Deena, Jeanne and Christy would align. If they do, but swing with the TA's, then it comes back to 3 on 3 and that is risky. Second, much of the SB community views Joanna as being arrogant, preachy, etc., etc., etc. She sure is being portrayed that way. However, is that the way the tribe sees her? Christy (and Jeanne) sure had a view of her dark side/hand in face. She also exposed herself on the idol issue. On the other hand, she has been valuable in the challenges. She seems to always be working around the camp. She has an upbeat attitude and is an encourager. While that may not sit with the TA's, I'm not sure the others would necessarily go for her first. At this point she'd seem to have more value to the tribe in challenges and around camp than either Jenna or Shawna. Heidi with her athleticism may be an exception to that, but if it goes that far there may be a merge first. Then all of this is up for grabs and Joanna is probably toast. Of course, if CO is correct this isn't worth anything.  2002 IceCat Originals, Inc. All rights reserved.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-28-03, 06:04 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Some pretty good ideas, sittem. Let me try to add to them/debate them, etc.Right now, we seem to have three "groups" of women: Jeanne/Joanna Heidi/Shawna/Jenna (Cute Girls) Deena/Christy (by default). I am also speculating that Christy and Deena have a stronger alliance than we've been shown. Jeanne and Joanna have been manipulating some of the others. Joanna has alienated others, especially Christy. I have not seen the Cute Girls act particularly close to Jeanne or Joanna, or be anywhere around them at all. So I think that there could be a "loose" alliance between the Cute Girls and Deena/Christy, for voting purposes anyway. Right now, CBS wants us to think that the Cute Girls have all the power, but for that to be anywhere near true, the Cute Girls must be getting help from others. I think Deena/Christy is more likely to be that kind of help.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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02-28-03, 06:23 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Everyone seems to think Alex goes before the juryhow much crow am I going to have to eat if he goes since I picked him to win in my ep 1 analysis
"To the other three out there, break a leg.... and I mean it." - Helen Glover
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_files/
Congratulations Alex winner of S6
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sittem 4186 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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02-28-03, 06:25 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
I'd say your analysis is pretty solid about the three groups. I do think there might be some crossover in the two people groupings and it seems more likely to me that they might ally rather than going with the TA's (if Christy and Joanna have a reconciliation). I forgot to mention above one thing that might be an affinity/point of identification between Joanna and Deena. Deena's preferences on the CBS website suggest to me she has a personal faith experience. Now, my experience is that many white christians and black christians sometimes have more differences than simlilarities (there's a whole book written about the topic called Divided by Faith - great sociological study). So, Deena might be seeing Joanna as crazy. But, maybe not - we'll see pretty soon how it all stacks up. 2002 IceCat Originals, Inc. All rights reserved.
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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03-01-03, 01:16 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-01-03 AT 01:18 PM (EST)I personally don't think that Deena and Christy are aligned by default. There aren't any indications that this is so. Christy obviously isn't too fond of BBB and Janet had also mentioned that she was very close to Christy (how Christy cried when Janet told her that Janet's probably next to go). If Christy were aligned with Deena, don't you think that she would have roped Deena in to save her friend, Janet? I think that this season's editing is pretty similar to S4's editing. Alliances are not hidden, and since successful strategies are always hidden, I get a feeling that there'll be a swap this time which shook up the alliances.
Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-01-03, 04:43 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
It occurs to me that if Shawna is on the verge of giving up next week, as indicated by the promo, then the other three in her alliance (Deena, Heidi, Jenna; according to Janet's chat) will be looking to recruit a new member. They have a choice of Christy, Jeanne or JoAnna. But if they've been paying attention they should realize that Jeanne and JoAnna have buddied-up to some extent, leaving Christy as their best option (even if Shawna does stick around for another episode or two). Christy certainly does have issues with how BBB have treated her, but if Deena and 2B's approach her that could change the entire dynamic in Camp Jaburu."If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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03-05-03, 12:23 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
I suppose there's always that possibility of Deena + 2 BBs recruiting Christy but I haven't gotten the impression that Christy is all that close with the BBB+Deena alliance. I just get the feeling that they'd keep Shawna there as long as possible coz I think she'd someone who's least likely to backstab them once they merge/swap with the guys.Strategies that are shown too early almost always means that it won't last all the way to the end. In this season, the alliances in both tribes have been shown out in the open. I don't think the editing necessarily means that there are hidden alliances per what you guys have been saying about Deena and Christy. It could also be that there are no hidden alliances at this moment whatsoever but what we'll get is players either backstabbing their own alliances at the later part of the show or the underdogs successfully thwarting the dominant powers ala Marquesas. I'm still not convinced that Christy and Deena have a hidden alliance.
Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)
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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-03, 06:45 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
It's practically been thrown into our faces that Deena has an alliance with the BBBs - Deena was shown talking with Heidi and Jenna in particular about voting together, and they did vote together along with Christy for Joanna. Deena's getting together with Heidi and Jenna isn't going to work out considering how much we were shown of them talking about it as per the Failed Strategies principle -- but we might actually be seeing a lot more of Deena and Christy working together after Deena's comment about Christy in TC and their vote together, which was only briefly discussed in camp. I was thinking, WTF!, when I saw that Shawna voted for Christy. What's up with that?
"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."
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Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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03-07-03, 06:51 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Pepe, you beat me to it. WTF was up with Shawna voting for Christy?
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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-03, 06:59 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Just read on another thread... Shawna probably knew that nobody else was voting for Christy and really wanted out, so she threw a vote away to improve the chances of her being voted out and hopefully cause a 3-3-1 tie where she'd lose a tiebreaker.Also, AyaK was speculating that MB really wants Christy to go far as she makes for a good story line, and may have been afraid that she'd get pissed and take it out onto Shawna -- so that's why her vote was hidden to keep the drama down this way.
"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-03, 10:30 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Shawna stated before the vote that she felt rather out of the alliance now and nobody was talking to her. She said she was voting on her own this time. She may not have been told that Joanna was the target. Plus she wanted to get back at everyone for not letting her leave. So she was going to vote for whoever she felt like. Probably hoping she would get to leave.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-03, 04:47 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Failed and Successful Strategies" |
Agree, except...Shawna could have voted for Deena, Heidi or Jenna if all she wanted to do was throw away her vote and hopefully be eliminated from the game, especially if she couldn't be sure who the alliance was targetting. Tossing her vote to her replacement in the alliance means something, though it may simply go to her own emotional state at that point in the game (expressing disappointment with Christy for siding with the alliance).  ARRRRRRR!!!!
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KeithFan 7422 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-03, 10:52 PM (EST)
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19. "Where's Butch?" |
After the first episode we had at least 2 people saying what a great guy Butch was, and now--nothing really. I'm starting to suspect that he is either a non-factor (doubt) or has a whole lot more clout with the tribe than we thought. I'm thinking F4 for the old boy!Feel free to flame away.
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-03, 10:56 PM (EST)
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25. "Woof! Woof!" |
Hmm...the dog that wouldn't bark. Well, it started out barking, but hasn't barked much at all since episode 1. I'll be interested to see how much Butch's game play resembles Tina's as the game goes on. I kinda think that MB is doing wacky contrasting things with their storylines.
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StarvingButStrong 74 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 00:25 AM (EST)
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27. "Succeeding or not, at least we seem to be getting MORE strategies" |
Do you remember all the times we've screamed at the players for NOT making strategic moves that seem obvious to us? How it seemed they'd lose sight of the fact that they ARE playing a game, and let themselves be guided by personal likes or dislikes in their votes, or refused to make a daring move for fear of not seeming 'nice'?I think we may finally have lots of players in one season who are really into playing. Take Jeanne: her scheme with Joanna to set Deanna up for a fall through being bossy seems to have failed, but it was a reasonable strategem. Take Deeana: she doesn't like the Booby Alliance members one bit, but she evaluates them as her best shot at advancing and so joins with them. Take Matthew: he realizes how much he was hurt by his Ryan/Daniel link, and instead of just moping, sets off to find new allies and make for himself a niche in the tribe as a valuable fish-catcher. Heck, take the Boobies themselves: the strategy of 'letting the oldies' do all the work is anything but 'nice,' but in fact it's quite sensible. If you are going to be supplied with water/fire/food (what there is of it) whether you contribute or not, then saving your energy for later when it will be each player for himself could make a critical difference. I see this gang as much more willing to assess their situation coldly, and be willing to break & reform alliances as their circumstances change. Could make for a much more interesting game -- back stabbing and re-alignments all over the place.
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 07:27 AM (EST)
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31. "Deena / Christy Swing Vote?" |
Boobie Alliance (BA) = Heidi, Shawna, JennaTemporarily Aligned with BA = Deena and Christy Left Hangin' = Jeanne Deena and Christy have to realize that they are 4 and 5 in a 5 woman alliance. Heidi was stupid enough to point this out to Christy by telling her that she 'is guaranteeing her position' (like 5th spot is a good deal). Deena and Christy have to look at the situation of Shawna whining for a second straight episode and think about using this to their advantage. If Shawna lets slip that she didn't vote as a block with the BA, then Deena and Christy will have to pounce on this by voting with Jeanne to take out Shawna. They may not even have to. If Jenna and Heidi continue to display the same pitiful level of comprehension of what this game is all about they will think that they have Deena and Christy's votes in the bag and will do Shawna the favor of giving her a mercy boot in EP5. If that occurs, Deena and Christy will switch over to Jeanne. Of course the timing of a swap or a merge will play havoc with this line of thinking. I have a feeling that the men vs women story line hasn't completed yet. What if the Dave and Jenna date preview is just one of several dates. Either multiple reward dates in the same episode or a series of reward dates over a number of episodes. It would be logical in the pre-production stages to plan for a series of challenges that would break down inter-tribal barriers prior to the merge. Maybe a merge or swap isn't in the cards yet and Deena, Christy, and Jenna will 'lift and separate' the Boobie Alliance.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 08:33 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Deena / Christy Swing Vote?" |
I agree with most of what everyone is saying, but allow me to add a couple of points:1) We were shown a good bit more last night, but I have the feeling we weren't shown everything. 2) Deena and Christy are not stupid, and are very aware of their position with the Cute Girls. To that end, I still have a sneaking suspicion that Deena and Christy are more closely allied than we've been let on, and that ultimately they are the ones stringing everyone along. As soon as a merger or swap happens, they'll have opportunites to take in any stragglers (Jeanne, Matthew, possibly Rob or Alex) and form a very strong alliance. Not really enough data to theorize further, but rip this apart with y'all's expert opinions...
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 10:25 AM (EST)
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34. "final 6" |
>I can totally see Matthew and Butch being the type of personalities that would immediately click with Deena and Christy. That's perhaps the final four or at least 4 of the final 6 right there. Pepe, Combined with weight loss spoilers and the ChillOne, I'd say you've got the final 4 right there. Per Milkshaky we know Heidi is 6. Guess what, that leaves spot #5 for the other weight loss spoiler: Rob. forehead
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 10:41 AM (EST)
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36. "I'm stilling thinking Jeanne and Christy..." |
I'm thinking that once we are getting down to the final 5 or 6, people are looking to dump immunity threats. Deena would be looking pretty threatening at that point compared to Christy and Jeanne.Remember the ChillOne speculation about the name 'shawna' being Portuguese accented pronuciation of the name 'jeanne' with a soft 'j' sound and an accidental pronunciation of the silent e. My money is on Roger and Matt for the final two men and Christy and Jeanne for the final two women.
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 11:10 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: I'm stilling thinking Jeanne and Christy..." |
Good points Ice. Let me try to clarify my current thinking a little.>I'm thinking that once we are getting down to the final 5 or 6, people are looking to dump immunity threats. Deena would be looking pretty threatening at that point compared to Christy and Jeanne. This depends on how strategic the players are in terms of end-game thinking (few were during S1-S5, Rich, Tina & Brian were exceptions), how rational they pick, and how they value possible final 2 pacts. Suppose Deena and Christy have a final 2 pact - why mess with it? Very hard to predict. >Remember the ChillOne speculation about the name 'shawna' being Portuguese accented pronuciation of the name 'jeanne' with a soft 'j' sound and an accidental pronunciation of the silent e. Yes, I remember that, and two weeks ago, I was still thinking Shawna would win it all because of this pronunciation issue. I'm viewing the ChillOne info as useful for a general guide, but wrong on specifics. The Brian/Ryan, Daniel, JoAnna, + a fourth was clearly on the money in terms of the first four regardless of order. Yet, the description for the fourth person was only right in specifying the gender. I'm not attaching much value to age indicators in CO's intel based on Janet's boot. Likewise, I consider Christy as identified, same with Butch because of weight loss (see below). For the second guy in the final 4, Matt is the best candidate because of weight loss. Who is #4? From CO's intel I'm only taking the piece that says it's a woman, the rest is all pretty vague (and MB did a good job of picking women with incredibly similar names). Deena has the biggest weight loss spoiler though. >My money is on Roger and Matt for the final two men and Christy and Jeanne for the final two women. Given no weight loss spoilers for Roger, yet 31 lbs for Butch, I would think Butch and Matt. Now, the wildcard in all of this is indeed Jeanne. A one-time poster in the CO thread here at SB EyeKnowOne posted: ----
FYI:
jeanne hebert lost in excess of 25 lbs from start to end
---- Yet, we don't know anything further on this. Is "end" at the time of boot? After 39 days? So, I agree we're not done in identifying the final 6, but we're close. Thoughts? forehead
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 04:13 PM (EST)
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39. "Next Six?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-03 AT 04:15 PM (EST)Forehead, as always, your thinking makes good sense. Your final six match up very nicely with the spoiler info we have at this point, and that picture will come into focus as we get closer. Predicting the next six is the greater challenge...any ideas?
Krautboy
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 04:42 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Next Six?" |
KB,>Predicting the next six is the greater challenge...any ideas? This is indeed the biggest challenge for this season. Until swap/merge/cohabitation uncertainty is cleared up, we have little to go on for a specific boot order. The few things out there that have merit: Snewser has several sources saying Shawna doesn't go far - LL Per Milkshaky, Heidi and a friend of Heidi did "well" in the finals. If Heidi goes ep11, then "well" probably means around final 6. If the friend is Jenna, Jenna could go ep10 (or maybe ep9 if there's some CillOne TJG connection). Wildcard: Jeanne's weight loss
Speculation (based on filling out the leftover spots): Shawna, Alex, Dave, Roger in whatever order (with Shawna sooner rather than later) are the next four, followed by Jeanne & Jenna in whatever order.
As you said, the next six is the greater challenge ... so, what are your ideas? forehead
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 06:14 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Next Four?" |
Forehead, now we're down to the next four, and your doing all the work!Shawna, Alex, Dave and Roger seem to be our prime candidates. The frustrating part, as you point out, is the unknown nature of the swap/cohabitation. Unless we get more vidcaps, all we have to work with are the editing clues from previous episodes, and post game comments of the first four bootees. Why don't you start a new thread summarizing the excellent points you've made in this thread, so we can continue to narrow down the "next four" to the "next two"...
Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 06:39 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Next Three?" |
This excerpt, combined with other strong arguments in the "Daniels Chat Revisited" thread, seem to eliminate Roger from the "next three" list:"And if there is a merge, the girls won't stand for Roger." So, we're down to Shawna, Alex or Dave...right?
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 07:01 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Next Three?" |
I disagree about eliminating Roger, Krautboy.The alternate-editing pattern that we've seen sets Roger up nicely for a boot. He got a lot of face-time in Eps 1 through 3, then was quite invisible yesterday. Except -- almost as if to remind us -- he had one brief confessional, in which he came off negatively of course, calling Rob "pathetic". True, Daniel said in his chat, that "if there is a merge the girls won't stand for Roger." This might suggest that Roger makes it to the real merge, but not necessarily. If there is a fake merge in Ep 5, we may see the women chafing at Roger's bossiness (Deena for sure will not be happy), which would fulfill Daniel's prediction, imo. To me, Roger seems like the obvious next target for Tambaqui. He got his wish to axe Ryan and Daniel first, but why would they let him call the shots indefinitely? If Matt becomes respected for his strength, and as a provider, which it appears is going to happen, there is no reason to keep Roger around. Sure he helped build the shelter but what do they need him for now? He said in front of them all at TC that he's "not a fisherman." He's abrasive. Rob wanted to get rid of him. Matt has voted against him. Alex at least considered it for TC3, and Dave might consider it now that Daniel's gone. And Butch -- we've never seen Roger and Butch talking. For all we know, Butch doesn't like Roger either, even though he voted with him twice. Based on what we know, I'd put Roger ahead of Dave and Alex on the boot list. They're still somewhat underdeveloped in the editing. And I don't buy the "Alex and Shawna must be at LL together" speculation. Of course, if Rob starts scheming anything can happen, but
Roger's story can be over asap.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 07:35 PM (EST)
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45. "Back to... Next Four?" |
OK, I also noted that this season's face time editing pattern did seem to point at Roger because of his conspicuous absence...and if there is some sort of swap/cohabitation, that would probably fit the Daniel's comment.It appears we will ahve some sort of swap/cohabitation event this week, at which point Roger will be living with the women. If he gets voted off by the women who end up on his tribe after the swap, that would still make Daniel's prediction true. Ok, your right, we're back to four...
Krautboy
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-03, 05:29 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Back to... Next Four?" |
If Roger and Deena were to end up in the same tribe then their different leadership styles will come into conflict. Deena is assertive and demanding only when she feels she must be (as in deciding to vote off JoAnna rather than Christy) whereas Roger has an abrassive edge at all times (which is actually useful IRL when dealing with GenX boys, but this is Survivor not IRL). Such a clash could fit with how things have been edited, IMO."If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-03, 11:44 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: Next Three?" |
I totally buy the Alex and Shawna at LL spec. Neither has weight loss spoilers. Shawna is not long for the game - not only is she whining and asking to leave, the others are quickly becoming irritated by her. The Boobies now have Deena and Christy on board (to what extent is the question) and will no longer need Shawna. Looks like next week, Alex becomes vulnerable due to some unnamed event. Sure, could be misdirection, but even without an injury (for example), he is still more vulnerable than Roger because he is the greater individual immunity threat and this is the time in the game when strength makes you a target. This applies to Dave as well. The rumor was the relationship began during the run of the game, not upon their return to the States, at least as far as I remember. We'll know soon...In my mind, Roger is safe and a jury member, taken out early by a cross gender alliance. I'm considering three for this week's boot - Shawna, Alex and Dave.
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-03, 11:07 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Deena / Christy Swing Vote?" |
I agree with you completely, Dawg. The boobies are not as firm as they appear.1. Shawna - first sign of dissention: in the boat with the Gruesome Twosome she says she feels guilty about everyone else doing the work and they probably look lazy. She questions the rationale of this strategy, and HeidiK puts her in her place. 2. Shawna again - in her pre-TC confessional, says she may vote outside of the boobie alliance, and does. 3. Shawna yet again - Deena was brought into the boobies by Shawna because they were pals. While the Gruesome Twosome appear to only be capable of conversing with cute little girls, Shawna has obviously been playing the field with the fat old bags. The really tight boobie alliance appears to be strictly between Jenna and HeidiK. The others are on the periphery, and will make their move when the time comes, leaving the Gruesome Twosome to grace LL with their cuteness.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-03, 05:38 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Deena / Christy Swing Vote?" |
"The boobies are not as firm as they appear." _ ***snicker!***
I have to agree, Heidi in particular seems stuck on one note. But there was a bit of a shift in position when Heidi and Jenna approached Christy about their alliance plans (which was the scene where Christy first used the word "trapped" which she later enunciated better in confesssional). "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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