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"Merge Dynamics"
Corvis7 100 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-26-15, 03:46 PM (EST)
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"Merge Dynamics" |
I've been looking at the dynamics of the tribes and how it might all come together at the merge. We know Dan, Mike and Kelly are tight. We know that Rodney is pissed off and will want another option. Sierra is a total free agent. She voted with Dan and Mike last time, but there's no doubt she doesn't want to be in an alliance with them if there's a better option. On the other side, you have Hali, Jenn and Joe. Will is with them unless a better option comes along. Carolyn will likely stick with them because she's certainly not going to go with Shirin. Tyler is a free agent with a tie to Carolyn. Shirin is a free agent with ties to, literally, no one. So let’s say Carolyn pulls Tyler into her new alliance with the No Collars. That’s six people and they just need one more to have the majority. Sierra is there for the pickin’. They could even grab Shirin, who has nowhere else to go. Or they could exploit Rodney’s anger, though I think this is less likely as Rodney’s personality will likely turn off this group. On the other side, you have a weak four person alliance with Dan-Mike-Kelly-Rodney. They need three people to get the magic number of seven. Who are they going to pull in? Shirin? Seems unlikely just based on personality. Sierra can’t stand them and would love to have a better option. And I think she’d fit in well with the No Collars as well as Carolyn. Can Rodney pull Tyler in? If I were Tyler, I’d go with Carolyn over Rodney any day. And maybe Tyler can help pull Rodney into the alliance with Carolyn. I really think the alliance of Dan, Mike, and Kelly is in serious trouble at the merge. And Mike seems the most likely target now that individual immunity is in play. Or I suppose Rodney if he doesn’t work himself into the opposing alliance.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-26-15, 04:44 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
Good stuff, many thanks. Yes, Mike may well regret sparing Rodney to oust Joaquin simply on the numbers game.Old Blues: dysfunctional Dan, Mike ally Kelly, Mike ally Mike, focus Rodney, wildcard, anti Mike, anti Sierra Sierra, wildcard, anti Dan, anti Mike, anti Rodney Old Nos: odds against Hali, Jenn ally Jenn, focus Joe, Jenn ally Will, potential loose cannon Old Whites: shattered Carolyn, ally with Tyler, anti Shirin Shirin, loose cannon Tyler, ally with Carolyn Dan, Kelly, Mike Hali, Jenn, Joe Carolyn, Tyler Rodney Sierra Shirin Will It all comes down to who Jenn and Mike and their allies can influence. Carolyn and Jenn have HIIs. An HII remains to be found at Escameca. Escameca will most likely be the merge camp.
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Jims03 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-26-15, 07:46 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-26-15 AT 07:51 PM (EST)I'm wondering if the Kelly connection with the No Collars and the Joe connection with the Blue Collars could merge the groups together. My first instinct would be like the above two analysis, that the core Blues are going to go against the Core Reds. But considering that Mike/Dan/Sierra just scrambled to save Joe, maybe Joe pulls them over to join up with Jenn and Hali? This alliance setup would potentially be ridiculously gigantic, as it would include Will and Carolyn (and possibly Tyler by extension?) as well. Such a setup would basically only leave out Rodney and Shirin (or Tyler) as the easy merge boot. It seems unlikely, though, that a line wouldn't get drawn almost down the middle like in most merges. It's kind of rare for one giant super-alliance to form. The only example I can think of where this happened was Micronesia, where Eliza and Jason were at the bottom and had nowhere to go. Amazon is another example (Roger and Dave), so maybe it is possible, since both of those were swap seasons. You could also argue Tocantins, so maybe it's not that rare after all. I feel like, in general, Joe is more likely to go back to Jenn/Hali/Will because of past voting history. There weren't any rumbling from Will during the swap, so I'm guessing he's content to stay. Carolyn has no real reason to go over to the Blues. Especially if they see the writing on the wall of Rodney and Tyler flipping to them, they may as well start dismantling Blue while they still can.
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Flowerpower1 4375 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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03-27-15, 09:42 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
Thanks for posting, Corvis....boy, it seems like everyone of us has a different vantage point! WOW, judging just from our answers it's going to be totally up in the air. Here is my 2 cents....People that are solidly together: Joe ~ Hali ~ Jenn ~ Will ~ Carolyn ~ Shirin.....Shirin will stay with the only people she has an affiliation with, I think. Mike ~ Dan ~ Kelly ~ Sierra (she has no other real connection with anyone, and she made her choice last ep. She threw in with the blues and she will stay there until a better option presents) The Free Agents: Tyler ~ Will run to Carolyn/Shirin...could be really interesting, because Tyler made a vote against Joe last ep, wouldn't be surprised if he were targeted this week. But, Carolyn threw in with the no collars and voted out Max, so Jenn/Hali may agree to keep Tyler with them....for now. Rodney ~ He will most likely stay with the blues as well, but he is a scary dude at this point. *Joe does have a tie now with Mike and Dan, so he could spare them with the next vote....who's left to target? Rodney and Kelly *Joe could be sitting in the very best spot, with affiliations to both sides, but could be a dangerous position as well *Last week Carolyn made a really bad move by chastising Shirin. Shirin became an outsider, and outlier last week, and Carolyn should have kissed her a$$, and worked hard to bring her closer. Now, Shirin will be a free agent and can do what she wants, she will also be a "no threat", and could come back to bite Carolyn and the others later.
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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-27-15, 11:15 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
I definitely see Shirin going with White Collars or more specifically wherever Hali goes. This link is a secret scene where Hali and Shirin have a heart to heart. Hali does a great job of comforting, understanding and giving Shirin some insights on how others perceive her in the game. Shirin gives a bit of background on herself and how it effects her behavior. Great little clip.In essence Hali looks like she made a solid bond with Shirin by just being straight forward without criticism. Something that Shirin really needed and it looks like Shirin could back Hali all the way. http://www.ew.com/article/2015/03/25/survivor-host-jeff-probst-why-players-no-longer-get-drunk I should be watched....closely.
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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-29-15, 07:54 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-15 AT 08:40 AM (EST)I agree! Sometimes the instinctively 'maternal' members of a group are not only not old, they are sometimes also not women: Hali is - like Danni, JT, Cirie, Sophie, Danny (GC), Alexis, Jimmy (Johnson), Sandy, Rita, David (Murphy), Benry, Jaime and Josh - a Cancer. And, of course, the 'maternal' instinct is not always selfless. Or benign. Or eternally welcome. Shirin is - like Sugar, Bob, Gillian, Brian (Heidik), Jason, Ibrehem, Anthony, Misty, Jonathan (Penner), Yve, Alina, Phillip, Ciera and Woo - a Pisces: Intuitively responsive to a nurturing hand but sometimes also quite capable of nipping the hand that nurtures ... G Note: Carolyn is a Libra. Sometimes conciliatory. Sometimes diplomatic. Always manipulative. Usually judgemental. Often more nagging conscience than soothing comfort.
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-28-15, 01:36 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
As p1ssed off as Rodney was over Joaquin getting axed, I find it a little difficult to believe that he won't become obnoxious enough to get himself axed. There may be some others planning to use him as a finals goat, but I would not be shocked that enough people got sick of him in the next episode or 2 to boot him instead.
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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-29-15, 02:45 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
I don't think Carolyn and Tyler are working with the No Collar four at all and they know they are dangerous because three are younger. I can see Carolyn and Tyler working deals and making a alliance with Mike because one, those three are older and a little bit more wiser to the game. I mean Jenn and crew basically teamed up against the older people on No Collar. It was almost like the pretty people alliance on Caramoan or Ozzy's two original four person alliances on Micronesia and South Pacific. And Micro had someone named Cirie who infiltrated that and SoPa had Jim that wanted Elyse out as Ozzy's main ally to give Jim a f4 opening(Cochran took care of that though).
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michel2 4531 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
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03-29-15, 02:54 AM (EST)
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10. "?" |
What?
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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-01-15, 07:45 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: ?" |
On Caramoan there was an alliance of Reynold, Eddie, Hope, and Ally and that annoyed Sherri and Laura. On SoPa there was an alliance of Ozzy, Keith, Whitney, Elyse and while he was a fifth it annoyed Jim. And he worked with Cochran, Dawn, Keith, and Whitney to vote Elyse out. And now I learn hearing him on RHAP he planned to get Ozzy out. In Micronesia there was an alliance with Ozzy, Amanda, Parvati, and James and the swap split them up and Cirie got in with the women and got Parvati to vote Ozzy out.When an alliance of Joe, Jenn, and Hali is that obvious someone is gonna figure something out and realize they cannot coast to the end. And the blue collar side is easier to break up. Mike, Kelly, and Dan are not so solid. Mike can turn on Dan, he's not his main ally. Sierra has no allegiance to any of them and neither does Rodney. So when it comes down to them, Sierra and Rodney will be battling with the other three for Tyler and Carolyn's allegiance. And if they chose Mike, Kelly, and Dan, Carolyn has the idol she can play at the perfect time to get rid of Dan or maybe Kelly if she has to. Considering Carolyn many times has been considered in exit interviews to be a smart player, she should be able to figure this out that the bc route is better than the nc route.
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-02-15, 01:24 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: ?" |
Rodney isn't anybody to watch out for. He's another d-bag who thinks his sh1t doesn't stink and the rest of the cast owes him an unimpeded path to the win. Can't wait to hear his rat and snake speech when he's serving on the jury at the final TC. WAAAAAH!!!!!
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Georganna 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-02-15, 07:30 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: ?" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-02-15 AT 07:31 AM (EST)Outsider, Watching the show last night, I just knew that I'd read the script earlier... somewhere. Congratulations! G
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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-03-15, 00:55 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: ?" |
Its not easier to go with NC, especially with a tight three like that. Rodney also already went to Carolyn and unveiled his final four plan to her making it obvious the blues were not tight.
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michel2 4531 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold"
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04-02-15, 06:35 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: ?" |
I wasn't questioning your plan, just your syntax.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-29-15, 10:10 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
The big question re the White Collars is whether Carolyn can put the past behind her and ally with Shirin. Shirin has few options, without a lifeline from Carolyn she aligns with the No Collars.
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coldbrewer 370 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-03-15, 04:50 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Insight from RHAP" |
I don't think anything will change. I would think Carolyn is working with blue collar because of the age difference. If Rodney can keep Will in the fold, I suspect the days are numbered for Joe, Jenn, & Hali.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-15, 02:01 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Insight from RHAP" |
If Rodney can keep Will in the fold, I suspect the days are numbered for Joe, Jenn, & Hali.Will has already burned his No-Collar bridges, he will stay with anyone who will keep him. And with Rodney ACTIVELY pursuing Will and keeping him in the loop, then YES, Rodney will keep Will. Will's game, at this moment depends on staying with Rodney. BUT, while that does speak of some bad times ahead for J/J/H, that actually ALL hinges on Rodney staying with BC. And THAT, to me, since I know he hangs with Joaquin and NOT Mike, Sierra, Dan, Jenn, Joe and Hali, makes me think Rodney doesn't make it much farther at all. Conversely, the other side of my brain says... large groups of folks taking selfies together? That seems like Jury behavior. And if Dan, Mike, Sierra, Jenn, Joe and Hali are 6 of the eight jurors, that leaves... *shiver* Carolyn, Rodney and Will F3? Someone please talk me off this branch!
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Corvis7 100 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-17-15, 10:52 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Merge Dynamics" |
Just bumping this to talk a little about the dynamics in the merged tribe. Right now, there are nine remaining Survivors. If Mike is going to make a move to break up his huge alliance, this is the week to do it. You never want to do it with an even number of Survivors, and if he waits til seven, he won't have the numbers, as the likely boots of Jenn and Shirin will be gone. Mike's best move is for him to get Dan and Sierra to agree to pulling in Shirin and Jenn and targeting one of Rodney, Tyler, Carolyn and Will. (Hopefully Rodney, through strategically, I'd boot Tyler instead.) The other way I can see this playing out is Jenn gets booted next, Shirin wins immunity at eight remaining players, most vote for Mike but he idols out Rodney (or someone else). Then at seven, Dan, Mike, Sierra and Shirin take over the game. I suppose I am working from the belief that Mike makes it to the end based on editing and if he's not in the final 3, then all of this is bunk.
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Outsider32 584 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-09-15, 11:37 PM (EST)
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27. "Carolyn" |
So if Carolyn plays her idol and idols out Dan or Rodney if Dan plays his advantage, can she trust Mike to take her to the end? Mike can beat anyone in FTC but the thing is at F4 if Mike does not win that immunity he is gone. And he probably stands a better chance at winning it without Carolyn there.With Carolyn on the ballot two things stick out at me. 1.She wins f4 immunity and makes the mistake of taking Mike to the end with her and Sierra. Thus earning her second chances bid. 2.Mike takes her out at f5 because the advantage forced her hand a week too early. Thus earning her second chances bid.
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