Solid points, all around, FP.
Although, I do have some reservations...

1. Baylor's "This means war" comment has no real validity if someone is contemplating the quit. What war? With who? Why would it be a featured phrase if nothing comes of it?

2. Dale, while having a difficult time watching his daughter compete, does not seem to be suffering emotionally (or physically) from his survivor experience at Coyopa. Even though he did voice concerns over his perceived lack of social game, in the beginning, he is currently in a majority alliance and the people he wants to target are getting the boot. From a game standpoint, he shouldn't really be concerned. So, in order for it to be Dale (as the quitter), it would have to be emotional quit and frankly, I don't see him as an emotionally driven personality.
Unless something huge happens this week, with the tribal dynamic, there is no real reason for Dale to NOT be enjoying his experience and his position in the game.
If he starts in on someone from a righteous point of view, I can definitely see him as a bootee target, but I just don't see it happening from a quitting standpoint.

3. JPs outfit. Yes, they are indeed the same. But I guarantee, JP does NOT have 39 shirts and 39 pairs of shorts. So wearing the same outfit, weeks later, is completely possible. Also, he only has 3 hats. And while it would seem to be quite a coincidence that JP is wearing the same three items at 2 different moments in the filming, I think it's just that. A coincidence. 2 different days, 2 different events, but the same combination of clothing.
And honestly, it looks to me like the shorts are darker in the quitting cap than they are in the IC3 pics. Shirt and hat are definitely the same though.

4. I also believe that the "season tease" events are all different/unrelated. The quitter not related to the War proposed by Baylor, different than the Julie's feelings of being disrespected, different than Keith's feelings of relief after "he" is gone, different than Wes crying. etc. I doubt that a string of these events all happens in one episode. And of as this moment, I'm not sold that a quitter is revealed for this episode at all.

What I'd like to add is that it is obvious that when JP states "You just lost a member" he is on Coyopa beach. So the "lost member" (even if they don't actually quit) is from Coyopa. OR Coyopa beach is the site of the merged tribe when this event happens.

Finally, every previous time someone has quit, it is a focus of the promos. Lindsey's quit, NaOnka's quit, Dana's quit, Colton's quits, etc. all got teased in the promos.
This week's tease is all about John. John's past and John's future. With nods to Baylor and Josh possibly turning the game around and the "possibility" of Wes being emotional over sending his pop to IC. But we've never been completely surprised. And unless Dale gets some focus in this week promos, I doubt it's him. (Strangely, I can see JohnR as a possibility for quit this episode. But...)

I wholeheartedly agree that the focus on JohnR is complete misdirection, but it is most likely due to the fact that the actual boot is too easy to figure out. *ahem, Jaclyn*

Although, I do have to state, that I have gone my own route before and not listened to FloPo's insightful analyses and been VERY wrong in doing so. So while I would be surprised that Dale quits AFTER the challenge, I can't really argue with the sound arguments you make for him actually doing as such.