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"Jury Speculation Thread"
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-10-12, 09:28 AM (EST)
 
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"Jury Speculation Thread" |
The path to the end is rapidly unfolding. Here is where we can make a case for any of the remaining DAWS leftI'll start. Denise received a lot of quotes from others that could be regarded as million dollar quotes. She has survived every TC. She was stellar in pre-merge editing, but she has gotten some doubt cast on her in making it to the end. Especially regarding Abi. She has taken a stance and said that she is firmly on board with the "more deserving, more social and strategic" players to get to the end. So, if she sticks by that, how could she explain away getting rid of her closest ally in the game, Malcolm, if indeed he is booted at F4? One person that will not vote for Denise is Abi. But, then again, we have seen more outspoken jurors end up voting for their "evil stepsisters". So? I do think Penner, who sure appears to be the voice of reason in Ponderosa clips, would reward either Malcolm or Denise over Skupin/Lisa. And, I think Kent would, Pete and Artis would, but they could be influenced by Abi, but I don't think they will. And, I think that Malcolm would vote for her too. So, that would be enough. If Skupin gets there, I think he would get RC's vote and maybe Abi's vote. Maybe Carter's? But, Carter being reunited with Kent means he is capable of being influenced again by Kent. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carter go along with Jeff. And, I don't think Kent will vote for the returnee or his little Church Lady friend. I also have some doubt regarding Penner's vote. While he said he would vote for Denise/Malcolm over them in a final, would he really? After all, he is a returner and if Skupin makes it to the end, I could see Penner giving him the nod. Lisa. The only jury member I think that would vote for her may be Abi. That's it. Malcolm: Bar none, I think Malcolm would win in a landslide. I think everyone would vote for him. I don't think he has any real enemies on the jury. So, this could play out in a very close TC, in the end?
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hrh40 3 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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12-10-12, 11:30 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
Before possibly booting Malcolm, Denise has already been inconsistent with her strategy of wanting to play against the best people:Why did she vote for Carter and not Abi if she wants only to face the best at the end? She doesn't think Abi can win and yet she didn't vote her out. Inconsistent.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-10-12, 01:07 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-12 AT 01:12 PM (EST)If Malcolm is in the final 3, he wins. Period. Even against Denise, although the only final 3 that would be interesting would include both Denise and Malcolm. The important thing to note is that the majority of the jury is Tandang. That tribe went to the merge intact, and if they had stuck together, they would have dominated. I think that those jury members would vote against Lisa and Skupin for 2 reasons: revenge and lack of respect for their gameplay. Skupin also has a strike against him for being a returning player - there was a lot of talk earlier about not letting a returning player win. The only way they'd vote for any of them is if the F3 were Lisa, Skupin, and Abi. At that point, I think they'd vote Skupin. The remaining jury members are Kalabaw. They'd be influenced by strategy, who they thought played the game at best. They also wouldn't mind having the last laugh on Tandang either, by voting against the original Tandang. Abi is the only vote that could go any way, since she's cuckoo. If Malcolm is there, she'll vote for him because he was the nicest to her, but she has reasons to vote against all of the others. Denise would earn respect for being at every tribal council and not getting voted out, and for surviving both the minority tribes pre-merge. Talk about Outlast. She'd also get respect for her challenge strength. Carter, Jeff, and Penner would also vote for her, since they might not have made merge without having her in their pre-merge alliance (before Dana's medivac, there was a male-female even split, and Denise was the swing vote who went with the men). Unless the F3 from hell (Skupin/Lisa/Abi) were to happen, Malcolm or Denise wins. If they're both there, Malcolm wins. And I don't think the vote will be close unless it's F3 from hell. I just seriously think that such a well-edited season could end with such a pathetic F3, so we're looking at a win for a Matsing.
edited because I hadn't finished a sentence, and it would have been even more confusing if I hadn't fixed it
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-10-12, 04:13 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
Just looking at the numbers right now...Still in the game:
3 Tandang (Skupin, Abi, Lisa)
1 Matsing-Tandang (Malcolm)
1 Matsing-Kalabaw (Denise) On the jury:
3 former Kalabaw (Kent, Penner, Carter)
3 former Tandang (RC, Pete, Artis) So if Denise is in the final 3 but Malcolm isn't, we have a jury with 4 original Tandangs, 3 original Kalabaws and 1 original Matsing. Denise would theoretically have an advantage there because any two of Skupin/Lisa/Abi could split the Tandang votes while Denise gets at least three of the other four (except possibly Carter). Artis will not vote for Skupin under any circumstances and possibly Pete too, based on their exit interviews. Who knows how Carter will feel about someone who called him like a son but still voted him out, and ditto for Penner who had Skupin/Lisa reject his pleas. I believe these rejections counter any argument that might be made against Denise if she should choose to go against Malcolm at F4 as I believe will happen. She could justify the Malcolm vote by saying it's a her-or-him situation as Skupin/Lisa were clearly voting together and she had to go with the safe approach to get herself to the end.
F3 matchups (in my view):
Skupin-Lisa-Abi = Skupin wins
Skupin-Lisa-Denise = Denise wins
Skupin-Lisa-Malcolm = Malcolm wins
Skupin-Abi-Malcolm = Malcolm wins
Skupin-Abi-Denise = Denise wins
Skupin-Denise-Malcolm = Malcolm wins
Lisa-Abi-Denise = Denise wins
Lisa-Abi-Malcolm = Malcolm wins
Lisa-Denise-Malcolm = Malcolm wins
Abi-Denise-Malcolm = Malcolm wins
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mimo 563 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-11-12, 00:24 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
Great thread FP!! I feel like I need a spreadsheet!  Here's how I see the jury voting in order of preference among the remaining five players: RC: Denise, Malcolm, Lisa (I don't see her voting for Mike since he betrayed her -- suspect she's a lock for Denise given the tension with Abi and the wink.)
Jeff K: Denise, Malcolm, Mike (not entirely sure on this one, but I give Denise an edge as she never actually betrayed him and he's spent more time with her)
Artis: Abi, Malcolm, Denise (I don't see him voting for Mike -- and I suspect he's not a big supporter of Lisa even though she was not the cause of the demise of the alliance)
Pete: Abi, Malcolm, Lisa (same argument as Artis, although since he was closer to Abi, he might prefer Lisa to Denise.)
Penner: Denise, Malcolm, Mike (I suspect he'll give Denise the edge given her story)
Carter: Mike, Lisa, Malcolm Wild cards:
Abi: Malcolm, Mike (her vote will be for a guy)
Denise: Malcolm, Mike
Malcolm: Denise, Mike
Lisa: Mike, Malcolm
Mike: Lisa, Malcolm (although I'm not entirely sure here...) So I give Malcolm the edge against Denise and any of the others, Denise the edge over Lisa and Mike, and Mike the edge over Lisa and Abi. 
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-12-12, 08:25 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Skupin tweets..." |
That is the general consensus but don't forget that during the Micronesia finale (F2, jury of 8) we heard that Probst had a white envelop in case of a tie. We never heard what was in there.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-11-12, 11:28 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Skupin tweets..." |
Agree. It is, however, a great incentive for not taking a goat to FTC! I mean, can you imagine how irrational and angry Abi would be having to suddenly go cast a vote when only minutes before she had been expecting to wait half a year to find out she was a millionaire?
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-12-12, 08:23 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Skupin tweets..." |
Wouldn't matter because she'd still have to vote.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-14-12, 01:36 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Skupin tweets..." |
Wouldn't there be some extra-ultra-mega hype about how "the unthinkable happens in the finale!!!!" if there were going to be an initial tie? Granted a revote would fill up some extra time if required in the episode, but still I am not seeing this happening. It is simply not a good dramatic ending for the show. We have indications that the jury spoke to each other pre-vote, as they have done in the past, and it is always assured there is no tie.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-14-12, 01:52 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Skupin tweets..." |
Agree. Skupin answered the question truthfully, the follow-up cynical observation got a response which would not be invalidated.
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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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12-12-12, 00:59 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
FloPo, thanks for starting this thread -- always fun to speculate on jury votes.Thought this excerpt from Probst's Hollywood Reporter interview might shed some insight to the conversation: --- THR: Is there anything that surprised you about the final two episodes? Probst: I think what came across to me in the final episodes is that the people who are there and the cases they make as to why they deserve it really speak to how they played the game. I think when you're watching the finale, you will have a good idea who has won based on what they're saying because they all tell their story, and when they're telling their stories, it's really clear who deserves to win. That isn't always the case. Sometimes people get up there, and they're just a jumbled mess. The people on this final episode, even if it works against them, they tell the truth of how they played the game.
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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-12-12, 06:36 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
The people on this final episode, even if it works against them, they tell the truth of how they played the game. Just a random thought on this statement is that when Probst said Malcolm was a shoe in unless he did something crazy and Malcolm replied that he does crazy things it made me wonder if Malcolm does do or says something crazy and it works against him in the final vote. 
Coronation by Tribe
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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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12-13-12, 02:34 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
At the 3:25 mark of this new Ponderosa clip, Penner, RC and others talk about who will be the final jury member, etc. Some insight into where the jury members' heads are at:http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/O1KS_JFMYVtNA2Cciv9jvVCeC092NhZ0/survivor-philippines-ponderosa-abi-maria-pt-2 Everyone appears to agree that Malcolm is the biggest threat. Penner says that if Denise wins immunity, she should vote out Malcolm and then "she'll be guaranteed the win." Based on this, seems to be a slam dunk! P.S. Can't recall if it's in this Ponderosa clip or the other one, but Abi hilariously says that Survivor has made her a better person. And RC tells her off and says that Abi is "the most disgusting player to ever play" the game.
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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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12-13-12, 02:52 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
P.S. At the end of the Ponderosa clip, Pete, Penner and Carter are laughing about something as they enter the final TC. Could be nothing, but I wonder if it's because someone unexpected (i.e. not Malcolm or Denise, per the discussion in the spec/clip) wins IC???On a related note, Skupin seems to be hinting on Twitter tonight that he will win more challenges than Malcolm: 2h Michael Skupin @mikeskupin
Individual #Survivor challenge results Skupin 2 wins Malcolm 2 wins Denise 1 win Abi 1 win Lisa 0 wins Who will be the S25 challenge beast? 2h Paul P @hotflesh
@mikeskupin You still have to factor in reward challenges and Malcolm did win the HII. 2h Michael Skupin @mikeskupin
True, I'm just talking flat out individual reward & immunity challenges @hotflesh
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katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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12-13-12, 01:44 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
Squid, I agree that someone unexpected won immunity. The smiles from Penner and Carter seemed to indicate a surprise, to me.
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Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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12-13-12, 12:51 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
Yeah, like Na'Onka. Now I despised that one -- and not simply because she quit! I hated the way she treated Kelly B.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-13-12, 02:41 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
Kent is just doing time. He's got three meals a day and a bed to sleep on. He's not been interested in what happens in the game, hates going to Tribal, and will think about who to vote for when the time comes.
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-13-12, 03:01 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
I think there's a little bit of big MLB player ego mixed in too. At least he showed up to greet Abi to Ponderosa.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-13-12, 03:58 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
When Artis arrived at the Ponderosa Kent greeted him. RC just walked away when Artis walked towards her, leaving Kent to show Artis around. Kent is decent enough to the others but just not interested in the game anymore.
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television 282 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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12-14-12, 01:00 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
Hey, most of the ponderosa clips are searchable on youtube. I live in Canada and that's how I've been watching them every week.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-14-12, 03:04 AM (EST)
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40. "So anyway" |
Getting back to jury spec winner votes:I don't agree that Malcolm is a shoo-in should he get to FTC. He's been great and definately could win, though he's no Jonathan Penner. But! Let's examine who he would be up against, 2 of the following 3: Denise, therapist. Skillset, listening and talking, being good with words and motivating, staying calm and rational. Lisa, author and inspirational (religious) speaker. And former child actress, which is really irrelevant except she has been adept at playing for applause for a long time, before she was Blair she was a Mouseketeer. Michael, author and motivational speaker. Oh my heck! And a co-founder of Rhinosoft Interactive, a maker of Christian-based computer software. He tried, seriously, to be the internet version of having a Gideon Bible in every hotel room. These are some serious competition, they are all good with words. And now that Abi is no longer around to interrupt with her own strategy of not letting anyone talk without Abi interjecting and spinning, it's anyone's game. So, my vote predictions -- RC: Malcolm (Alt. Denise) Jeff: Denise (Alt. Malcolm) Artis: Lisa (Alt. Malcolm) Pete: Malcolm (Alt. Mike) Jonathan: Denise (Alt. Lisa) Carter: Denise (Alt. Lisa) Abi: Malcolm (Alt. Lisa) Denise: Malcolm Lisa: Denise Malcolm: Denise Mike: Lisa.
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AaronLittleton 123 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-16-12, 10:00 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Jury Speculation Thread" |
I agree with many others and feel Malcolm will be voted out at final four.
He's most likely to get Fan Favorite (other than Penner) and he'd get the win if he were allowed to face the jury.I believe the final three will be Michael, Lisa and Denise. Votes will go something like this: RC: Denise (slight possibility Mike)
Kent: Denise
Artis: Lisa
Pete: Lisa
Penner: Denise
Carter: Denise
Abi: Lisa (maybe Denise, for an ironic twist)
Malcolm: Denise That leaves: Denise - 5, Lisa - 3, Michael - 0
(or slight possibility D - 5, L - 2, M - 1) Either way, Denise wins Survivor Philippines!
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