LAST EDITED ON 10-04-12 AT 06:23 PM (EST)

That smells like #6 (Penner) was not, while possibly #7
was. So, one possibility here is a 6-person alliance of
4 yellow (Mike, Lisa, Abi-Maria, Pete) and 2 blue (Denise,
Malcolm).

After last night's episode, it really looks like you nailed this exactly.

- RC is left out because she and Abi do NOT get along and Abi gets along with Pete. Plus, RC is a solid challenge threat after her awesome showing in last night's IC, doing multiple dives in a row.

- Malcolm fits in with his new tribe, and since he has a solid alliance with Denise, she's brought into the mix when the merge happens.

- Penner has a HII. Yes, Kalabaw knows it. When it gets down to 7, either Penner still has his HII and uses it, or Penner wins the Individual Challenge. Either way, Pete doesn't win the challenge and either gets voted out as a challenge threat/PITA or leaves with a sole vote from Penner when Penner plays the HII. If Pete gets voted out, it could also be courtesy a female majority.

- Since there has basically been a Kalabaw Pagonging, Penner's gone next because he doesn't win immunity and no longer has the HII.

- Once it's down to the final 5, get rid of the annoying one, Abi. Malcolm may be the strongest challenge threat, so he might win this one, but he doesn't win the final 4 challenge and is voted out then.

edited because i mistyped a number.