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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 09-29-11, 06:23 PM (EST) "s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" So one of the clues strongly suggests that Coach's tribe goes to TC again. "One castaway is brought to tears when confronted with his past during an emotional tribal council" This is most likely Brandon. So... who's in danger? Stacey - she is outside of the five person alliance and was clearly friends with the booted Christine, so she's an obvious target. However, I have noticed that she appears to be playing it really cool lately. Hanging out, not causing waves. Smart move for a player on the outs of the major alliance. Brandon - He's crazy, that much is clear. Or really immature, anyway. Sophie can't stand him and when he confronted Mikayla, everyone was extremely uncomfortable. Clearly one of the two of them has to go to keep the tribe strong. I could easily see Brandon getting the boot. I hope we're that lucky. Mikalya - However, I think there's a good chance she's our boot. In the confrontation between Brandon and Mikayla, we heard all of Brandon's POV, but nothing from Mikayla. Yes, we saw her crying, but if she were going to triumph over Brandon, I think we'd hear a confessional from her about how she's not going to let Brandon take her out. I think Mikayla is really in trouble. Except for Coach at TC, we've not seen anyone talking about liking her. And I think Coach was more about getting rid of Christina ('you're a temp player') than saving Mikayla. And if Mikayla volunteers for the challenge and then doesn't win it for her tribe, that could really hurt her. Particularly if she's beat by the older Dawn. We also saw from the previews that Brandon is worried about Albert and Sophie teaming up with Mikayla. I think this is all in Brandon's mind and Coach is not going to let Brandon destroy his alliance. However, to placate Brandon, Coach will support getting rid of Mikayla. Or he'll turn on Brandon and pull Mikayla into the five. In my mind, Mikayla is most in danger this week, but I am open to other ideas, of course.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion Outfrontgirl 09-29-11 1  RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion kiki_k 09-29-11 2    RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion Brownroach 09-30-11 14  RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion Flowerpower 09-29-11 3  RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion SquidProQuo 09-29-11 4  EP4 Clues Krautboy 09-29-11 5  RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion dabo 09-30-11 6  Edna Krautboy 09-30-11 7    RE: Edna Outfrontgirl 09-30-11 8        RE: Edna PepeLePew13 09-30-11 17            RE: Edna kingfish 09-30-11 18                RE: Edna PepeLePew13 09-30-11 19                    An aside... PepeLePew13 09-30-11 20                    RE: Edna kingfish 09-30-11 22                        RE: Edna Outfrontgirl 09-30-11 23                            RE: Edna kingfish 09-30-11 24                                Hope Outfrontgirl 09-30-11 26                                    RE: Hope kingfish 10-01-11 31                            RE: Edna kiki_k 09-30-11 27                                RE: Edna dabo 09-30-11 28            RE: Edna Brownroach 09-30-11 21  RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion Naked 09-30-11 9    RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion Flowerpower 09-30-11 10        RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion jbug 09-30-11 12            RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion dabo 09-30-11 13    RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion Outfrontgirl 09-30-11 11    RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion kiki_k 09-30-11 15        RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion CTgirl 09-30-11 16    RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion Krautboy 10-01-11 35  Web promo SquidProQuo 09-30-11 25    RE: Web promo dabo 10-01-11 29        RE: Web promo Outfrontgirl 10-01-11 30        RE: Web promo SquidProQuo 10-01-11 38  Occam's Razor? Krautboy 10-01-11 32    RE: Occam's Razor? Corvis 10-01-11 33        Maxx Fisher Krautboy 10-01-11 34            RE: Maxx Fisher SquidProQuo 10-01-11 37                RE: Maxx Fisher dabo 10-01-11 39                    RE: Maxx Fisher SquidProQuo 10-01-11 42                        RE: Maxx Fisher dabo 10-01-11 43            RE: Maxx Fisher Round Robin 10-02-11 44                RE: Maxx Fisher dabo 10-02-11 46                    Dabo's Call Krautboy 10-02-11 50                        Okay dabo 10-02-11 54                            RE: Okay Outfrontgirl 10-03-11 56                                RE: Okay dabo 10-03-11 57                                    RE: Okay Outfrontgirl 10-03-11 59                                        RE: Okay Flowerpower 10-03-11 60                                            RE: Okay dabo 10-03-11 61                RE: Maxx Fisher Outfrontgirl 10-02-11 53            RE: Maxx Fisher Corvis 10-02-11 45                RE: Maxx Fisher Outfrontgirl 10-02-11 52    RE: Occam's Razor? Outfrontgirl 10-01-11 36        RE: Occam's Razor? SquidProQuo 10-01-11 40        RE: Occam's Razor? dabo 10-01-11 41            RE: Occam's Razor? kiki_k 10-02-11 47                RE: Occam's Razor? dabo 10-02-11 48                    RE: Occam's Razor? Krautboy 10-02-11 49                        RE: Occam's Razor? Zeek 10-02-11 51                        RE: Occam's Razor? kiki_k 10-03-11 55                            RE: Occam's Razor? Round Robin 10-03-11 58

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-11, 06:58 PM (EST) 1. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" I agree with you, Corvis. The only way it is Stacey is if they have deliberately obfuscated her danger in order to hide the boot. I think though that they have America expecting Brandon to go, and that is the misdirection. I said essentially the same thing yesterday on the editing topic about how Mikayla's position is not being shown from her POV, and that she will lose the battle with Brandon. I also said there that this tension will fracture the tribe and it has to be addressed. It's a boil that requires immediate lancing or the infection will spread. If Brandon were weak, he might be offed, but he is strong and it is only Ep 4, plus Coach indicated in Insider that Christine, Stacey, and Mikayla were all disposable to him back in Ep 3. Christine was just his biggest target. He will not fight for Mikayla, and she was a little slow in the wakeboard challenge. At least she was on the course when Jeff yelled that Upolu needed to pick it up. I also compared Mikayla to Kelly B. Even though she is young and athletic, she just ended up on the social outs. Perhaps because she is young and athletic, she is the type who could damage her tribe by flipping at the merge ... has to be taken out. It looks like Sophie and Albert are going to sympathize with her and not Brandon, from the preview. We already know that Sophie thinks Brandon is weird and creepy. So again if Coach wants to keep his chosen ones tight, he must get Mikayla out. Upolu could easily fracture into Sophie-Albert-Mikayla-Stacey (by default) vs. Coach-Brandon- Rick-Edna. Hopefully, from Coach's POV, Albert knows better than to cement himself to keeping three weaker players this early in the game. I could see Sophie straying from the fold or being taken out sooner rather than later if she pushes for Mikayla to stay.   Top

kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 09-29-11, 07:44 PM (EST) 2. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" Edna is a possibility too. She's not in with Coach's "alliance of 5" any more than Stacey is -- only she has Coach allegedly protecting her, but he'd vote her out in a second if the other 4 wanted him to for a some what "valid" reason (ie, she really sucks at the next challenge). Not that I think Edna will be the next one booted, just saying she should be considered as "in danger" too. Brandon *should* be the boot, IMO, because, to paraphrase Brownroach, I'm already sick of that creepy @sshat "fake celebrity" storyline (so what his uncle is RussHell? I don't care if Obama is his uncle -- what's that got to do with the price of tea in China?) So, of course, he will *not* be the boot -- they all want to drag him as the goat to the end. I expect him to be the distraction boot each episode ala Crazy James until he is *actually* booted (if that even happens).   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 11:17 AM (EST) 14. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" I'm already sick of that creepy @sshat "fake celebrity" storyline They figured out a way to make Survivor revolve around RussHell even when he's not there. It's deplorable. I don't think Edna is in trouble this week -- Coach likes her, and Sophie says she likes her as well, so she probably gets along with mostly everyone. I think Coach considered Stacey more of a target in tandem with Christine -- now that Christine is gone, booting Stacey right away may not seem too important to Coach. I do agree with those who think Mikayla is in trouble -- when Coach figures out that Brandon is never going to shut up about her, he'll have to do something. From the audience's point of view Mikayla is getting support from no one, which bodes very badly for her. The question is if it all comes to a head this week. I think it might.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-29-11, 07:55 PM (EST) 3. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" Wow, a Mikayla boot would be very interesting here, especially after I thought with last weeks episode that she had a shot. I got the impression that she may be able to take Brandon's position in the alliance. One thing that you note may have merit. The fact that we are NOT getting her POV. That does raise a red flag. I don't know though, I will be eager to see the next promo. Be careful with noting all of Brandon's confessionals. They did the same thing with RUSSHELL...it was all about him as the star of the season. Clearly, Brandon's confessionals are in the same league as his uncles. I just don't know if his little star will burn out quicker than his uncle's did. I sure hope to God that it will.   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 09-29-11, 09:41 PM (EST) 4. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" Corvis, great points. I hate the fact that Mikayla would have to go to keep the tribe strong, but unfortunately I think that could be the thinking by the Coach/Albert alliance -- especially since they still need Brandon's strength and he's the ideal goat now. Also, Stacey is not really a danger with Christine out of the picture. Some further evidence to back up your thinking on Mikayla: In this week's Insider Clips, Mikayla talks about how no one warned her about Brandon and how Coach is the only one who's honest with her. It definitely seems like she feels that she doesn't have any allies. Re Edna: Thought she could be perceived as weak and possibly on the chopping block but this Insider Clip from Sophie is very telling about tribe dynamics: "There's a 5-person group in the tribe, which involves all the guys and me....since there's 5 people, you gotta make sure no one feels at the bottom. Albert and I feel pretty comfortable; we have like this little two-pact going on. Coach, I have a good bond with him. I didn't say explicitly, but he did say to me explicitly he'd like to me with me at the end. I'm good with Coach. Rick, he warmed up to me.... Brandon I'm a little more worried about, (note, this was before his explosion!) I wanna tell Rick or somebody to make him feel like he's a top dog. "I talk to Edna a lot, not to get her in any alliance, but to make her feel comfortable with everybody. I've been lying to her a bit; I haven't told her that it's her and I, but I've been lying to her about the state of the tribe, as have a lot of people. I love Edna; she's hilarious.....She seems pretty easy to manipulate. I don't know why, but I get this read on her that she believes everything you're telling her. She'll be great. Out of the 4 girls, other than me, we trust her (Edna) the most."   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 09-29-11, 11:48 PM (EST) 5. "EP4 Clues" A CASTAWAY TURNS ON HIS ALLIANCE AND TEAMS UP WITH AN UNLIKELY TRIBE MEMBER, ON "SURVIVOR: SOUTH PACIFIC," WEDNESDAY, OCT. 5 CHEAT TWEET: Too soon? A castaway turns on his alliance and teams up with an unlikely tribe member. #Survivor 10/5 @ 8pmET/PT http://bit.ly/qHnn7b "Survivalism" - One castaway is brought to tears when confronted with his past during an emotional tribal council, and another turns on his alliance and teams up with an unlikely tribe member. Meanwhile on Redemption Island, the second castaway is sent home, on SURVIVOR: SOUTH PACIFIC, Wednesday, Oct. 5 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network. Yes, it does indeed appear that Upolu goes to TC this week. Brandon is once again brought to tears...this time at TC. The other half of the clue referring to Savaii, where Jim betrays his alliance and teams up with the "unlikely" Cochran. This week will set up a surprise blindside of Ozzy, perhaps the next time they go to TC. For this week though, we know from jeff that weightlifting is the challenge and the celebratory shots of Dawn and Jim from the intro, support our conclusions...Upolu is going to TC and Brandon is the misdirection. Edna, Stacy or Mikayla? More later... Krautboy   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 00:27 AM (EST) 6. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" Factoring in Redemption Island, it really does not make sense to boot either Brandon or Mikayla since there is a good chance the player would re-enter the game at the merge determined to settle the score. I could see them putting Brandon on the hot seat at Tribal, make him think it's him, forcing him into a position of submission and contrition, not that I expect he would actually mature in any way as a result but maybe they can get him under control. And then it's bye-bye Stacey. Possibly Edna, if Stacey is more valued in challenges. Mikayla is in danger, though, because they might not factor in RI, and they might think getting her away from Brandon might somehow solve something. Which could backfire on them when the voices in his head decide Sophie is the devil in disguise. With glasses.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 09-30-11, 02:04 AM (EST) 7. "Edna" Corvis, you make a strong arguement for Mikayla...here's an arguement for Edna: Upolo has an alliance of 5, with Edna, Stacy and Mikayla on the outside. The story has focused on the tension between Mikayla and Brandon, and the misdirection for EP4 shows Brandon going to Coach worried about “something going on” between Albert, Sophie and Mikayla. The fact that Mikayla is talking strategy with Albert and Sophie bodes well for her if they are discussing who to vote at TC… Brandon or Edna? The clues suggest Brandon breaks down at TC. He probably asks Mikayla for forgiveness and explains how his dark past influenced him. Sophie is tired of him, as are Mikayla and Albert, but Coach will argue for keeping a physically strong tribe together for the challenges. Stacy will probably go along with Coach, to save herself, leaving Edna vulnerable. The editing in EP1 showed Edna as the only one who befriended Coach. Last week we were shown Coach saying he had an alliance of 5, but you can never have too many friends in this game…referring to Edna. These edits may have been used to set up Coach’s betrayal of Edna at TC. Coach has been preaching the importance of keeping the tribe physically strong in order to win challenges. The insider clips showed Edna concerned that her tribe was so quick to sit her out of the challenges. She knows she is vulnerable. All she has to offer Coach is loyalty and that may not be enough. Brandon is Coach’s crazy Phillip and he probably recognizes that carrying him to the end is a proven strategy. In the end, Coach will probably hold the alliance together. He will appease Albert and Sophie by keeping Mikayla. He will protect Brandon from his own paranoia and he will keep the tribe strong by keeping Stacy over Edna. And poor Edna gets thrown under the bus… Krautboy   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 02:48 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Edna" As a pro-Edna staying point -- because there is only one challenge per cycle now, they can sit Edna out as long as they are up one player. They can sit her out each and every time if need be. If they tie up again, there is usually a slot in a challenge for a less physical player, and Edna is smart. A weak player can be dealt with in this scenario. Losing a really good competitor like Brandon is another story. They can't afford that. They don't want to be the next Zapatera. Here's a Coach Insider from Ep 2: Tribal Council Magic "This camp is full of amateurs. They'll be scrambling this way, talking this way, come over and make a private deal with me. It's just crazy. There's no need for that. Everybody needs to settle down. My alliance of six, as soon as I get back to camp, in front of everybody, I'm gonna get all the remaining five of my alliance, get 'em together, sit 'em down, and say, 'You're voting for this person,' 'You're voting for this person,' split the vote, and then revote and take somebody out in the counter-alliance. It's either gonna be Mikayla, Stacey, or Christine. One of those three." I don't think they will worry about sending Mikayla to RI any more than they did Christine. As Boston Rob pointed out, you don't know who's coming back and you can't worry about that. You can't not vote out someone who is a problem in camp, simply because if they come back later they might be a problem in camp. If I have a thorn in my heel, I'm going to pluck it out, and I'm going to do it even if some rule says I have to throw it back on the ground and there's a chance I might step on it again. At least it won't be a continual irritation. The troubling element here is that Mikayla isn't at fault. Brandon is crazy. But nevertheless as long as both are in camp, craziness will continue. I don't believe that Brandon will apologize to Mikayla, at least not in a heartfelt way. Coach from Ep 3 Insider: Craziest Thing Brandon's attack on Mikayla is the craziest thing Coach has seen on Survivor "The sun is setting, we've got calm waters, looks like we won't be getting any rain tonight, we're making our beds, we just got water, we're gonna have a great time, and Brandon comes in, dragging Mikayla by the hair almost, in caveman fashion, and is like, 'Get in the middle of the circle and let's have it out! Dude, you just totally ruined the calm evening we were going to have, and probably pt a little bit of skittish fear in the alliance now, because the alliance is always going to think, 'Is he going to do this type of thing again?''" (cut) "63 days on Survivor and this is the craziest thing here, that's ever happened. Brandon is a man that's so mature beyond his years, but this game gets to him in so many different ways." (cut) "I appreciate his honesty, but the worst thing you can do to a tribe is have a beatdown session on one person, in the middle of a circle." (cut) "I'm just flabbergasted about this tribe right now. We're strong, we're good in challenges, we have a core group of warriors in an alliance that trust each other implicitly, and I think they're all solid people. For this to happen with Brandon coming in and going all crazy, it just flabbergasts me." Obviously Coach is really perturbed with this situation, but note that he never says he's going to need to cut Brandon. He he wants his solid warriors. I think he will want to whip Brandon back into shape, snap him out of it, perhaps by reading him the riot act at TC.   Top

PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 01:14 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Edna" You do make some really good points there... but I wanted to add that if we're going to discuss about who Coach sees as "warriors", I can't believe he wouldn't consider Mikayla as a warrior type and would prefer to keep her around over a non-warrior type such as Stacey or Sophie or ... Edna as in Krautboy's boot scenario.   Top

kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 01:29 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Edna" Actually Mikayla being booted to RI would provide EPMB with additional revenge drama (Mikayla vs Brandon) if Mikayla can manage to survive a run of RI challenges. And against either Papa bear or Christine, her chances of winning the first one are pretty good. Mikayla might be a bit smarter than Matt.   Top

PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 01:35 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Edna" Right, but we're not discussing what EPMB wants, we're discussing Coach's perception of the dynamics in his tribe and who might be a likely boot based on that perception along with other editing cues we've been shown so far in the game.   Top

PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 01:37 PM (EST) 20. "An aside..." I see Mikayla as a lot like Sierra or Erinn from Coach's original season in Tocantins - both were criticized and beaten down by others in their tribe, but both managed to stick around until pretty late in the game.   Top

kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 05:27 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Edna" You're right, I'm tangenting a bit. But the suggestion of a Mikayla boot earlier in the thread and the fact that she's not getting a solid boot edit had me thinking that she may be getting set up for a temp relocation to RI with a future return to the game down the line. Now ya'll can return to discussing Coach's thoughts.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 07:14 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Edna" lol, kingfish ... I don't feel any future in Mikayla's game. With Sierra and Erinn, both were presented to us along with plenty of confessional action as the opposition to Coach's "jacka$$ rule" -- Mikayla was scolded by Jeff for going down without a fight. (Shades of his issue with Brenda?) She is shown as someone who arrived to play a certain game, but ran into something else, and hasn't been able to adapt. Cirie is a masterful Survivor veteran, but she still went down early in HvV due to being targeted early. It happens. In Tocantins, Sydney was gorgeous and not a liability to her tribe, but she just didn't establish her position and relied on her charms. Not a parallel to Mikayla in that way, but my point is that nowadays, people need to build an alliance when they hit the beach, and Mikayla didn't do it, and I think she will be toast for that omission. Coach included her as one of the three outsiders in that confessional I quoted. Edna had the sense to warm up to Coach when he was on the outs, but Mikayla seems to have hung with Christine and Stacey a little too much. The editing is making it all about Brandon, but I don't believe that's the whole story. When Brandon first said he wanted her out, Coach said something like she would be useful for another challenge or so. He had already marked her down as pre-merge, I would say -- just not the FIRST pre-merge.   Top

kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 07:52 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Edna" I could very well be projecting a personal hope that she returns and is being subtly set up to be part of this season's Matt vs Rob drama, I was not satisfied last season when Matt proved to be so impotent. But she is getting a friendly cut in editing as Brandon's current target (and possible future foil?). I'd would like to see it happen, and have a more satisfying outcome than last season.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 10:14 PM (EST) 26. "Hope" I find that HOPE leads me down the garden path when it comes to spoiling. What happened happened, and it was shaped by the players, not the wishful fans. If Mikayla were the returnee she would be getting way more early confessional action, IMHO. Both Sierra and Erinn got notable confessional action, although I don't have the stats and am going on memory. I think people are fighting the idea of Mikayla being out and gone because they like her and they hate Brandon. There is nothing fair about the game of Survivor. To spoil the future outcome, one has to use clinical detachment -- don't strain to see evidence of the troll going or your favorites staying. I try but I typically have one boot I fail to accept for partisan reasons. Like I have been resisting the early Ozzy boot, but it could well be that KB saw what I couldn't.   Top

kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-01-11, 10:51 AM (EST) 31. "RE: Hope" Too true. My hoped for scenario rarely go the way they're supposed to. Still, she has to be in the running for a boot if her tribe keeps going to TC, so the possibility of her being the instrument by which Brandon gets his comeuppance still has some legs.   Top

kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 09-30-11, 10:33 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Edna" The editing is making it all about Brandon, but I don't believe that's the whole story. This. Y'all must know by now that I'm not one to give Brandon any kind of credit whatsoever for anything BUT he *did* say to Mikayla that he wasn't the *only* one who didn't like her. Plus, I seriously doubt he has the balls to drag their (at first) private fight to everybody as a "bluff." The fact that doing that was stupid (as no one was going to back him up by admitting they didn't like her to her face) is irrelevant -- Brandon did expect back up because what he was saying to Mikayla was, in fact, true.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 11:04 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Edna" Matter of perspective and word choice, really, because Brandon was trying to be hurtful. Mikayla hasn't done anything but help the tribe in camp and in challenges, but she also didn't hang out enough with the right people or do much to build trust. Doesn't actually mean any of them don't like her the way Brandon wants, she's just not doing well in the game.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 03:00 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Edna" I think Coach has tunnel vision when it comes to his idea of a "warrior" and his alliances -- he doesn't view the people outside his alliances as anything, other than disposable. And in general I don't think he considers women to be "warriors". Interestingly, Coach's alliance of 4 men and 1 woman has the same gender makeup as his post-merge alliance in Tocantins.   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 09-30-11, 03:24 AM (EST) 9. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" LAST EDITED ON 09-30-11 AT 03:25 AM (EST) It seems to me that Stacey is getting somewhat of a pass here in the conversation. In my eyes, she is the obvious next boot from her tribe. She is outside the alliance, AND is the least useful in challenges. Both Mikayla and Edna have been shown to have at least marginal support from Coach, and as I think that he is running the show over there, it just doesn't bode well for Stacey in my eyes... Of course... I am ALWAYS wrong... VOTE NAKED 2004   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 06:36 AM (EST) 10. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" In my eyes, she is the obvious next boot from her tribe. Naked. Totally agree with your vantage point. Stacey was tied to Christine, she was in cahoots with her. Christine alienated Coach. Stacey was the logical one to split the votes with at TC, she and Christine were both expendable. Stacey is the EASY boot choice this week.   Top

jbug 17146 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 10:20 AM (EST) 12. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" Also Coach will not want Stacey around should Christine continue to win duels at RI. He would not want those 2 back together again. Tho I don't see Christine winning all the duels like Matt; but then again anything is possible.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 10:38 AM (EST) 13. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" That's a good point, if Christine wins the next duel Coach would want to send a Christine friend to RI, that way both of them can't come back. Christine voted for Edna to go to RI, no friendship there. What chance does Papa Bear have of winning a duel outside his weight division? He's big and clumsy but he does have some strength, although the living conditions seem to have sapped him somewhat. If it is a puzzle he may have a chance in the duel but he'll have to come back from behind after gathering the puzzle pieces.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 06:44 AM (EST) 11. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" You are right, she is the obvious boot, and I think she could definitely be it. My question is whether she'll be passed over due to the drama going on. Either Stacey is one of those boots where they don't develop her character at all in order to surprise us, or she has a bit more face time coming. Don't know which.   Top

kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 09-30-11, 12:18 PM (EST) 15. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" I also agree Stacey is the obvious boot since the Upolu 5* seem intent on keeping that nutcase Brandon (yes, I'm going to beat that dead horse until he's actually gone). Especially considering jbug's great point that Coach doesn't want Christine coming back in & hooking up with Stacey again. Christine's RI win may have sealed Stacey's fate whereas if Semhar had won, Stacey might have had a chance to fly UTR for a while. But, I think we are also just considering other possible scenarios, especially considering the crazy Brandon factor. *I just realized the irony of Papa Bear at the last TC talking about "the 5" on Savaii as if they were set in stone when we know they are not. The real "5" that seems cemented together is Coach's 5 at Upolu. Interesting. . .   Top

CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 09-30-11, 01:05 PM (EST) 16. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" And we all know how EPMB loves his irony! Coach's 5 is set (for now) and I expect a shake up of the Savaii 5 next time they go to tribal. I don't think Edna is the boot based on preseason comments about her and the focus on Edna being friendly to Coach in the premiere. She hasn't had her story yet. Jbug made a really good point about Christine and Stacey hooking back up (and maybe that will be Coach's downfall if Edna hooks up with them too but I digress!) I am leaning towards a Mikayla boot this week. A story has been developed around Mikayla but we haven't heard her point of view. We've had 3 weeks of the good vs. evil Brandon regarding Mikayla. It's time to put that story to bed. Mikayla gets the short end of the stick.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-01-11, 05:50 PM (EST) 35. "RE: s23 Ep 4 Boot discussion" Naked, I re-read this thread and realized that it was your arguement that struck a cord with me, and when FloPo seconded your opinion, that got me thinking about Occam's Razor...looks like you may NOT always be wrong! Well done! Krautboy   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 09-30-11, 09:48 PM (EST) 25. "Web promo" Just noticed the web promo is up on Survivor Fever with some new challenge shots: http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s23_ep4_wp.html#voiceover What's interesting is that it appears that Mikayla sits out the weight challenge and instead Stacey will be the female "lifter" for Coach's tribe. (We can see Sophie, Mikayla and Edna with Coach on the sidelines.) Does Stacey volunteer? Or does Mikayla say she doesn't want to do it? Will be interesting to see how that plays out. If Stacey's the one to blow the challenge for her tribe, then that would obviously be yet another reason to vote her out. On the other hand, if she does volunteer and does pretty well, that might convince Coach and others to keep her around for challenge strength. The promo ends with Coach saying he's not going to let anyone blow his game. It's unlikely that he'd be talking about Stacey or Edna in that context -- it must be the Brandon/Mikayla situation.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-01-11, 00:23 AM (EST) 29. "RE: Web promo" Mikayla sits out? But the players not holding up the weights have the job of piling weight on the other tribe's holders, don't know how you get a sit-out from this promo. They are still playing up the Ozzy v Coach angle in the promos. Last season they pretty much abandoned the Rob v Russell stuff after the first episode.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-01-11, 02:55 AM (EST) 30. "RE: Web promo" Someone will sit out, just because numbers are uneven, but unless we see her on the sidelines, she could be loading.   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-01-11, 08:29 PM (EST) 38. "RE: Web promo" Dabo, sorry, "sit out" was a poor choice of words -- I meant Mikayla's on the sidelines and not 1 of the 3 holding the weights. (The actual loading weights part isn't a big deal, right? -- other than the strategic decision where to put it, which is a big deal.) My main point was that since Stacey's the female holding the weights for Coach's tribe (whether she volunteered or not), which makes it a make it or break it situation for her...and the fact that their tribe loses and we think Dawn pulls it out for Ozzy's tribe implies that Stacey doesn't do well and could therefore likely be the one on the chopping block. Might be a smart choice on Mikayla's part not to volunteer and lay low on this challenge.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-01-11, 01:32 PM (EST) 32. "Occam's Razor?" Mikayla, Edna or Stacy...that is the question, and Coach appears to be the one holding his tribe together, so he will ultimately be the one answering the question. Coach protected Mikayla at the last tribal council when Brandon wanted her out, and yet she didn't get a single vote. This week it appears that Albert and Sophie are on Mikayla's side as well and Brandon doesn't like it, but Coach is still the one calling the shots. Edna has been sitting out challenges, but Coach has said "you can never have enough friends" and values Edna's loyalty. He also values tribal strength in the challenges, but if they can continue to sit Edna out, he may not mind keeping a loyal ally in the game. Stacy was aligned with Christine, but has been keeping a low profile, and appears to be part of the IC this week, but since they lose, that may be to her disadvantage. The confessional count disappeared for both Edna and Stacy, both were hidden leading up to this week's episode. It looks like it is between Edna and Stacy, and coach will probably be making the call... Will Coach betray his loyal supporter Edna, or is it a simple vote for Stacy hidden by all the drama and misdirection this week? Corvis has always been an advocate for "Occam's Razor" and Flowerpower seems to think Stacy is the simple logical choice. It may be too soon for Edna to go home... Krautboy   Top

Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-01-11, 01:56 PM (EST) 33. "RE: Occam's Razor?" That's a strong case for Stacy. One thing that I do want to point out is I really don't think Coach was "protecting" Mikayla. I think he wanted Christina out because she called him a "temporary player" and knocking out Mikayla instead left his one definite enemy still in the game. As for Albert and Sophie being on Mikayla's side, we only have Brandon's word for that and, well, he's a liar. We saw no one stick up for Mikayla when Brandon forced the confrontation in front of the whole tribe. No one even said anything in a confessional where no one would see. I think Brandon's right about no one really bonding with Mikayla very much. And as been mentioned before, we never saw Mikayla talking about her situation after being attacked by Brandon. All that said, the Stacy boot does make sense too.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-01-11, 05:43 PM (EST) 34. "Maxx Fisher" I see that Maxx Fisher has answered my question...wish he would wait until Wednesady to post his article. I think I will try to contact him and ask that he waits until after we have had a chance to solve the riddles on our own... I may have to change the weekly voting record to be about things not spoiled before the show airs each week... Oh well, still glad he's only spoiling week to week. Hope his source keeps him under control. Krautboy   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-01-11, 08:21 PM (EST) 37. "RE: Maxx Fisher" KB, who is Maxx Fisher? A new spoiler? I'm just catching up on this season, thx   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-01-11, 08:32 PM (EST) 39. "RE: Maxx Fisher" weekly spoiler http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7726.shtml   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-01-11, 08:47 PM (EST) 42. "RE: Maxx Fisher" Thanks, Dabo. So do we know if there's a Hantz connection?   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-01-11, 11:25 PM (EST) 43. "RE: Maxx Fisher" Not a clue. But from what I've seen (haven't read it all, but his last three weekly projections were correct) he's doing things mostly on a week by week basis, Snewser style, and does not seem to have an agenda (spin) he has to follow.   Top

Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-02-11, 04:33 AM (EST) 44. "RE: Maxx Fisher" I don't like this voting change one damn bit and if you insist on going through with it I will quit the damn vote thread. You're making too much work out of something that's supposed to be fun, and you're assuming we all read MaxxFisher. I do not read Maxx blanking Fisher, never have, and it's unfair to those of us who don't to mess up the vote thread because of those who do. I don't want to think that much for something that's supposed to be fun, and I refuse to do it.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-02-11, 12:06 PM (EST) 46. "RE: Maxx Fisher" LAST EDITED ON 10-02-11 AT 01:31 PM (EST) That would be a shame but I understand your feelings. Maxx puts the boot pick in a spoiler section in his posts that you have to open to read; I'll have to check after broadcast to see how he does, and what his duel record is. Snewzer used to wait until 2pm the day of the broadcast to issue his spoils. Like KB, I wish Maxx would wait, until at least 24 hrs before broadcast. I understand if he has his own IRL schedule dictating his posting schedule but a five-day window seems a bit much.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-02-11, 04:19 PM (EST) 50. "Dabo's Call" Dabo: In light of the controversy over the vote scoring, I will follow your lead...since you run the voting thread, I will score whatever questions you put forth in your instructions. I would propose Duel, Challenge, Votee and a 1 point bonus question about "Rupert's Record", until we can get a schedule from Maxx Fisher which allows us to set a voting deadline. Sorry to put this on you, put you are always fair and reasonable, so I'm good with whatever you decide... Krautboy   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-02-11, 11:19 PM (EST) 54. "Okay" I hate when controversy spills into these things that are just for fun, and in my mind the voting thread and the scoring game are two separate fun things. But I'll try to come up with a fair scoring system and questions for this week in the voting thread itself; I'll just have to go research first what is actually spoiled. Honestly, Maxx may only get a boot spoil, the RC/IC winning tribe follows from that, and duel winner could just be educated spec. I'll also need to check closely what Probst has spouted over the last week. For the time being we may want to go back to having Spec Only and Spoilers Allowed discussion threads even if it means duplication of effort. I've never had an actual deadline on voting threads, just an informal policy about closing things when the Eastern broadcast starts (but if a vote comes in a few minutes or so in, eh whatever, it is just for fun).   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-03-11, 00:58 AM (EST) 56. "RE: Okay" >>> Honestly, Maxx may only get a boot spoil, the RC/IC winning tribe follows from that, and duel winner could just be educated spec. Not likely. You need to read. Keep in mind that Maxx is NOT a spoiler; he is a column writer, and quite funny IMHO. Here are the three prior episodes. Corvis would not want to read them because there is some spec that touches on the future, though nothing definite. As far as what info he gets, it looks like it varies from week to week. http://www.tvfunspot.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13720 http://www.tvfunspot.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13706 http://www.tvfunspot.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13678   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-03-11, 01:37 AM (EST) 57. "RE: Okay" Thanks. I looked over those previously, admittedly cursory reading after the fact, and as far as the weekly predictions they could all have been derived from spec. Still, I plan to give it all a closer reading, and see what else he may have to say in other posts. I will say that he doesn't seem to have a hidden agenda, just wants to amuse people and attract traffic to the site, which is perfectly above board.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-03-11, 09:02 AM (EST) 59. "RE: Okay" >>> and as far as the weekly predictions they could all have been derived from spec. dabo, I'm not sure you are familiar with the rules of posting in the Sucks spoiler forum. If a poster starts a spoiler topic and posts spec while calling it a source spoiler, the penalty is permanent banning. The stakes are high. There is no reason to do that. If any part of it is spec, the rules over there require him to say so. If he is wrong, he's done. That's why I don't think it is spec.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-03-11, 07:15 PM (EST) 60. "RE: Okay" BUT, Maxx is not posting at Sucks, right? He's at Sir Links Alot or some place like that...?   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-03-11, 07:47 PM (EST) 61. "RE: Okay" LAST EDITED ON 10-03-11 AT 07:48 PM (EST) His home is TV FunSpot, but I gather he also posts at Sucks.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-02-11, 08:44 PM (EST) 53. "RE: Maxx Fisher" I agree, but then I already quit the vote thread last season, as soon as it became a cumulative competition. I have always enjoyed the vote thread because it was a place I could drop in on weeks where I had something to say, and not do if I didn't. I also liked that it didn't have a set of questions and was just a place to present your case. However, I saw that other people were into the competition, so that how it goes, a change ruins it for a few but makes it more fun for the majority, and the few are SOL.   Top

Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-02-11, 10:55 AM (EST) 45. "RE: Maxx Fisher" Reading just the beginning of your post tells me this Max person is spoiling things. Well, I'm done with these forums for another season. *sigh*   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-02-11, 08:38 PM (EST) 52. "RE: Maxx Fisher" It's not a bootlist, Corvis. It's a weekly tip thing. And so far his accuracy record is 100% on all elements, boot, duel, challenge, etc.. I personally don't think it is right of us to tell someone when to spoil who is spoiling on a whole other board that is a true spoiler board in the sense of all spoilers are welcome. So it would help our game; it will screw up other people's fun and games. It's too bad there's not a spec forum at Blows where no sourced spoilers are allowed.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-01-11, 07:12 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Occam's Razor?" spectator clumping at challenge .. Coach and Edna ... Sophie and Mikayla My thought this week has been that Occam's Razor would be to deal with the fracture in the tribe ... Mikayla or Brandon. But thinking some more on this, here is a possible scenario: While Coach has a big voice in what ends up going down, Coach's position is in no way secure enough that he can alienate Sophie and Albert. We know that Sophie thinks Brandon is a creepy and it looks like Sophie and Albert gravitate towards Mikayla. For Coach to say Mikayla must go at this time would alienate his allies and possibly cause a 4-4 split. Therefore, even though it is bad energy to have this weird dynamic, the best course is to bring the tribe together and boot the fringe person, Stacey. No one can get mad about this, and it will not have repercussions. Also if Christine does win the duel, then one of the two will be out, which is good if not vital. If they go back to TC, I don't see Mikayla making it through to the merge. Coach has taken Edna under his wing for now, looks like, although I imagine that it will be between those two. Stacey is one they have chosen to give no story, because she goes early and is never much of a factor. Most likely Christine will beat her at RI, which would give Christine a run of three duels minimum and is a pretty good run if not a Matt. Back to this episode, I can see Coach trying to "heal" the rift at TC and maybe Brandon will get into his demons and humanize himself somewhat and have a moment of catharsis as an alternative to becoming more sullen and broody about not getting rid of the Delilah in camp.   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-01-11, 08:39 PM (EST) 40. "RE: Occam's Razor?" Agree re Christine. Definitely got the vibe from her "pull a Matt" comment this last episode that she'll be going on some kind of RI run. (Also the parallels between her and Coach and Boston Rob and Matt.). Surely Christine can beat Papa Bear and if Stacey is next (or Edna), that should also be an easy win for her. Mikayla is the one who would give Christine the most trouble....although I'm sure Coach isn't thinking that angle at this point....as you said, he needs to keep his alliance happy first and foremost for now.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-01-11, 08:41 PM (EST) 41. "RE: Occam's Razor?" Brandon will be dumbfounded that his middle school bully pack stuff isn't working in Survivor, in his mind they should all be hating on Mikayla now but at least two in his own alliance aren't. Why aren't they just falling in line?!! (Frankly, they're all too old for that bunk.) With RI as a factor Coach maybe realizes they can't just get rid of the problem with a boot, it could come back to haunt them. Even if Mikayla or Brandon were to get knocked out in a duel, either of them would be spreading poison while there. For all they know there could even be a trbal switch looming, so the sooner this is resolved the better.   Top

kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-02-11, 01:20 PM (EST) 47. "RE: Occam's Razor?" IDK about the tribal switch looming -- they didn't do one in the first RI season (IMO, so Rob wouldn't get scr@wed over by one), so I doubt MB will do one this season & possibly scr@w over Coach &/or Ozzy. True, they don't *know* there will not be one for a fact, but as we've learned they all saw the last season.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-02-11, 01:24 PM (EST) 48. "RE: Occam's Razor?" Not saying there will be a switch, and I am not actually expecting one. But for all that the players know at this point in the game there may be one and it may be getting close. But, yeah, they don't want to run the risk of Ozzy and Coach ending up in the same tribe until the official merge.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-02-11, 03:54 PM (EST) 49. "RE: Occam's Razor?" Maxx Fisher has spoiled the answer to this question for those who want to know... Krautboy   Top

Zeek 47 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-02-11, 06:01 PM (EST) 51. "RE: Occam's Razor?" Don't want to know. After all the years of having the boot list given on a platter, the last season was far more enjoyable. Having to look at the clues in the vidcaps & think it out. While I do remember snewser, at least he did not give the boot until right before the espiode aired. So reading all of your great posts, I'm leaning to either Edna or Stacy.   Top

kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-03-11, 00:27 AM (EST) 55. "RE: Occam's Razor?" Thanks KB! I just learned of the existence of MaxxFisher this week (always a day late & a dollar short on the sourced spoilers) but unlike others, I LIKE being spoiled, mainly because I get too nervous during actual episodes if I'm not.   Top

Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-03-11, 02:15 AM (EST) 58. "RE: Occam's Razor?" I've been aware of MaxxFisher's existence for a week or 2 now. I haven't ever read him, though. I read the SOTS thread here and go by that on the vote thread unless I think its predictions are off, which I did the ep Christine got booted.   Top

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