LAST EDITED ON 03-07-11 AT 10:49 PM (EST)

yeah, I agree with all this stellar logic.

About the swap idea, I don't expect one, because it would put Rob at risk, and the producers want him to make the merge, you know they do. Any time they swap, the tribe that is at a numerical disadvantage has a good chance to be screwed. Look at Espada last time, they lost two members from each new tribe before the merge. In the status quo, Ometepe is down in numbers, but Rob is relatively safe. At least when the merge comes a player can try to win immunity. Post-swap there is often no way to maneuver; look at Aaron in China as well, from leader to toast.

I thought that CBS might pull a real surprise boot and neglect to promote Zapatera at all, then zing, they go to TC where the story is all set up for Stephanie. My argument was that there is zero suspense to be had at Zapatera, no realistic decoy boot. Stephanie burned every bridge last time.

However, I think Ometepe is at a disadvantage in this challenge. Krista is sitting out. Mike and Steve are beasts. We don't see them perform. We see Grant, which impresses us with Ometepe. Right, but Grant is the ONLY Ometepe who has the fire to slay that digging task in short shrift.

I do not think that Rob will base the boot on keeping the tribe strong. In Villains, he protected Sandra and Courtney, the two most useless members for challenges. All he cares about is keeping his alliance in the game, and getting rid of people who challenge him.

Rob won't care if Philip is annoying, so long as Philip is loyal.
Natalie is loyal.
Andrea COULD be called an alliance member who might flip, so not sure if he's worried about Ashley and Grant.

The obvious boot is Kristina. The only wild card is her ability to find an idol without clues. That alone makes her super dangerous. And, Rob is going to have to split the vote again ...

so he has to think about having enough numbers to do that ... which makes him wonder whether Philip and Andrea are rock solid. Rob has a solid four. That's a majority, but only if he's willing to leave Kristina in the game and not even try to get her.

To split the vote, he has 2-2 for sure, but if both Andrea and Philip flip-flop to vote with Kristina, they have three and can vote Rob out.

Also, someone has to be the alt boot in case Kristina has an idol and plays it. Rob can't expect Andrea to stay with him if she is knowingly the alt boot. Philip, now, as a secret agent he may be sold on the secret ops angle, but it's still a risk.

I think Rob has to tell Andrea and Philip to vote Kristina, along with one of his 4, while the other three vote Philip or Andrea.

Andrea -- The girls and Grant were ready to vote Andrea in Ep 2, until Matt shook the enemy's hand, so I see no issue there. You know that members of a harem can be glad to see fewer girls in the harem. Sounds like Ashley and Grant are solid, and Andrea is on the outs.

Philip -- Natalie and Ashley are all annoyed with him, Andrea too. In fact, that might be a good way to get Andrea to vote the way Rob wants.

Then Rob has to instruct them to vote Kristina if there's a tie (no idol).

Summary: because the idol is a question mark, Rob is in a position where his majority isn't enough to control the vote outcome, so long as Andrea feels on the outs and could join with Kristina, and if Philip feels insecure -- as he almost voted with Kristina once before. Rob is going to have to work some magic on the troops to get Kristina out of there.