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"EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-04-04, 02:18 AM (EST)
 
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"EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-04-04 AT 02:42 AM (EST)SamBuru and BJ over at the Mess Hall brought up the notion of a possible swap in EP4…I think it’s worth our consideration. After last week’s tribal councils, we appear to have two clear majorities in control of the game. The predictable pagonging will begin unless something happens to shake things up. MB likes to be the only one in control of his game and to keep the contestants off balance. Is it possible that MB looked at the situation going into EP4 and decided it was time for a swap/reshuffle? The conditions are right. We have two equal tribes of eight. A swap of four contestants would create two new tribes of eight with an equal number of four men and women. The timing is perfect. We also have no pictures of the Immunity Challenge. When they don’t show up in the previews, there’s usually something to hide…like two new reshuffled teams competing for Immunity? We also have a mysterious visitor that appears as part of the reward. He may be the mechanism used to reshuffle the tribes.
Voice over: "The Survivor castaways are falling apart and a mysterious stranger will affect the tribes in ways they could never imagine."
Just as the tribal leaders separated the original tribes into men and women, a tribal member may be involved in the selection of those that go and those that stay at each tribe. That process may take 24 hours. If you are Brady or John K. or Eliza and Julie and you ended up on a new tribe as a result of the reward challenge, you might say “Now that’s a reward”. It’s also possible that the reward is just as we’ve speculated and a local native arrives to show the winning tribe how to fish, gather food, find fruit etc. and the swap happens just prior to the Immunity Challenge. The title for EP5 is “Earthquakes and Shakeups”, which could be in reference to the aftermath of a swap at the end of EP4. In that case EP5 would be all about the new tribal dynamics, the rebuilding of new alliances after the shakeup caused by the swap/reshuffle. The only thing I’m having a little trouble reconciling is the list of the Final 9. That list appears to result directly from a simple pagonging on each of the tribes, based on the current majority alliances. Is it possible that those majority alliance would survive a swap/reshuffle and still get to the merge in tact? Or is the reshuffling the thing that eventually causes all the original alliance to fall apart after the merge? I’m anxious to read your ideas…
Krautboy
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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-05-04, 02:12 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
what I meant was, I don't think they are going to have a swap at all, though they could do something like a fake merge/swap.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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10-05-04, 01:37 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
That is a great question. That would also explain how Eliza survives through the merge, because unless the award individual immunities to each tribe, I do not see how those women would let her stay because the longer she is there, the more dangerous she becomes to the women long-term. Could be that they just swap one person, or give a couple of ill-fated people the choice of a switch or trade. That would make things more interesting esp. for Brady, Julie and Eliza. It could also be interesting for Twila.
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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-04-04, 09:13 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-04-04 AT 10:45 AM (EST)KB, I like this way of thinking. If you remember, I posted on the web promo thread, that it was strange we didn't have any IC vid caps. Makes you wonder! Also, I have been thinking of Jiffy's quote about the survivors not knowing when the next TC would be and that it kept them off balance guessing. What if there were some type of swap right before IC and the losing team had to go to TC immediately without going back to camp. There would be no time to strategize! If the fat five get split-up, I could see the same confused looks on Rory and Lea's face. They would know that the separated alliance members would not have time to plead their case or time to fit in with the others. I can see them being nervous about it. I don't understand why Lea and Rory would be upset or strategizing over who they were going to vote-off unless they think they are in the minority. Even if the fat five only lose one person in a swap...they would still be able to pull off a vote (any of the guys left would join them to vote off a female...IMHO). Does any of this make sense? Changed BR to KB because I am so confused this morning! I am having a blonde day!  
Director of Public Relations for GAWKUR!
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-04-04, 10:58 AM (EST)
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10. "Doubt it" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-04-04 AT 11:01 AM (EST)While we don't have IC pics, I still doubt that we're looking at a swap in E4. Here's why. 1) The calendar - E3 consisted of 1 day (Day 7, which was July 4). We still have the Vanuatu newspaper spoiler of the secluded waterfall reward on July 8. Based on the title of E5, we know the earthquake occurs during that episode. We also know that an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.7 occurred on Vanuatu on July 7. So, if E4 consists of Days 8 & 9 (July 5 & 6), we're set up for Day 10 being the day of the earthquake and Day 11 being the day of the secluded waterfall reward. Why is this relevant? It seems more likely, given the title of E5 and the nature of the reward, that the swap will occur here. Bringing me to... 2) The titles - Every time there's been a swap in Survivor history, there's been a hint of it in the title (S3 - The Swap, S4 - The Winds Twist, S6 - Pick Up Sticks). The title of E5 falls more in line with this pattern. 3) The previews - Also, whenever we've had a swap, MB has alluded to it more directly in his previews. Even in S6, we were told of changing "dynamics", comfort levels of the tribe, and the word "shocking" appears. There is none of this for this week. We've also always been given some Survivor's shocked look. Again, this is missing. As much as MB likes to foil the spoiling community, he's trying to sell a show to the masses. If there's going to be a swap, he'll want to tell the public "Don't miss this week!" He hasn't. Therefore, I think we're still an episode away. 4) The current tribal dynamics - We know that there is very little deviation from the current tribal power structure with the upcoming boots, per Snewser's list. The players remaining on the list are: Brady, John K., Julie, Lisa, and Travis. Only Travis is currently on the right side of the power dynamics in the respective tribes. It just defies the odds that we'd have 4 predictable boots after a random redistribution or a redistribution not controlled by the players. It seems much more likely to me that we have a meeting of 2 people in the power alliances in E5 where they redistribute the tribes in a way that allows for the Pagonging of both Yasur and Lopevi to continue to the merge. As for the lack of IC footage? Well, we're due for a visually unstimulating trivia challenge, or something similar, so my guess is that they just don't have anything good to throw in a preview.  Fester
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ohboy 168 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-04-04, 11:04 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Doubt it" |
Lets not forget that we have had situations "Africa" where only two members went to the other tribe prior to the merge. I think that this may be the case they may not split them perfectly- but I have a really hard time believing that they are going to let this go on. Even if it's one or two people they switch up I think it's going to happen in this episode.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-04-04, 11:18 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Agree" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-04-04 AT 11:19 AM (EST)Also, MB rarely does major change-ups in back-to-back episodes. It's usually: boring, boring, surprise!, boring, boring, boring, boring, surprise!... Since we had the individual immunity and dual TC last week, I think this week will be relatively nondescript...
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-04-04, 12:30 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
Excellent! But - and I know MB adds "hype" to almost everything, what about this part:Voice over: "The Survivor castaways are falling apart and a mysterious stranger will affect the tribes in ways they could never imagine ." Can they (or we) really never imagine something? What could do this? Clearly they (or most of them) would know historical Survivor events, like tribe switches and camp switches... 
posting forever despite my DAWness
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-04-04, 01:26 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
....oops, just read the misdirection about that the Reward winner get's the stranger's visit. Nuts! I kind of thought the idea was cool... posting forever despite my DAWness
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-05-04, 01:59 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
Interesting. It wouldn't surprise me if the big twist this time is no twist, no reshuffling of the tribes until the merge. They already did gender-based tribes with reshuffling in the Amazon edition, why re-do that?
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katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-05-04, 07:20 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
That really would throw us all for a loop! and I'll bet that the players also expect a swap of some kind, so if there isn't one, they will be surprised too.
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LookeeLoo 1169 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-05-04, 08:19 PM (EST)
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29. "My outlandish idea..." |
Bear with me here...We have vid caps of only one challenge. I think it is the RC. From the Ep title we have "Now that's a Reward!". What if we have a twist in the RC, where the team that wins RC, does not have to compete in the TC? Meaning that tribal immunity is the reward for reward challenge? That would certainly be a big reward! It would also back up the CBS Misdirection statement, "The Tribe that wins Reward is surprised by a prize that sends a visitor to their camp for 24 hours." The key word here is "surprised" by a prize. Jiffy always tells the players what they are playing for. Hence the statement "Now that's a Reward!". Then, they are surprised by an additional prize of the visitor after the RC challenge. This could also support the reason we are not seeing and 2nd challenge caps, as they would all be pics of one tribe going for II in the IC! I have not figured out how this would affect Brady making a decision that will affect him, but maybe that is on the cutting block and has already occurred. Maybe he was approached early on by one of the original Fat Five aliance and goofed. I also have not figured out how this reconciles with the followup VO of how the visitor affects both tribes, but I'm getting a feeling it has to do with spirituality. How good does this fit?  
Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
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caveman 91 desperate attention whore postings
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10-06-04, 03:24 PM (EST)
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31. "Perfect timing" |
Kraut BoyI think you've nailed it. I couldn't figure out why MB forced the men to make an elimination when they won the challenge. It fly's in the face of fair play. Unless you are determined to even the teams and can see no sure way to guarentee the men lose another immunity challenge at the right time. I think MB wanted the tribes to be equal at 8 for the swap. 4 women and 4 men on each of the new tribes creates the most interesting dynamic with a merge to then occur when the total number of survivors dwindles to 10. Caveman
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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10-06-04, 03:57 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: EP4 Swap/Reshuffle?" |
Exactly, except for both teams, assuming the merge is at 10, only have 4 more team tribal councils. The merge is supposed to consist of: Ami, Scout, Twila, Leanne, Eliza, Julie, Chris, Chad, Lea, and Rory. So somehow Lisa gets the next female boot, and JK and Brady are next. Plus Travis goes when the fat 5 have to start eating each other, though that could be the result of a swap. Who knows what happens in this game anymore? Anyone long for the days of S1 when no one knew how to play the game?
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