This season illustrated perfectly the randomness of this game. We have always said that the winners needed luck to become Sole Survivors but it was made evident with what can be called Survivor’s version of the Twin Paradox. We’ve often asked what would have happened if one individual had been placed in one tribe instead of the other or if the swap had worked slightly differently for some individuals. Here, while it has nothing to do with Relativity, the diametrically different results obtained by the two twins offer us empirical evidence of such a switch. Of course, we still can’t say that Nadiya would have won if she had been on Hunahpu instead of Natalie but it is still fascinating to examine the result of this social experiment.

Would Natalie have been voted out first if she was on Coyopa? We can assume that the male-female divide would have still occurred even if Natalie had picked the yellow buff. We can further assume that Coyopa would have still lost the first immunity challenge because neither Nadiya nor Natalie played a big role in it. Baylor and Josh would have still been the key votes at that first Tribal Council. Josh’s negative reaction to Nadiya’s comment that he was “one of the girls” was presented as a major factor in deciding that the pair would go with the guys. We can certainly question whether Natalie would have made the same comment but we can also ask if it had as much importance as we were shown. While the editors need to give us a clear reason for most votes, it’s usually very different on the island. It’s very doubtful that Josh would have eliminated Dale at that first TC after saying that he had saved their lives by making fire. Also, going with the guys at that stage of the game was the best way to keep the tribe competitive. So, the probabilities are high that Natalie would have been voted out first in San Juan Del Sur if she had switched places with her twin.

Would Nadiya have become the Sole Survivor if she had been on Hunahpu? That’s a much more interesting question but the answer is lot less clear because the probabilities diminish with every cycle. We can safely assume that Nadiya would have been part of what we called Jeremy’s alliance because it was in fact a women’s alliance. We can’t say for sure that Hunahpu would have won the second immunity challenge though because Natalie’s win over Val gave Hunahpu a crucial point in a very close challenge. Yet, because it was a physical challenge, it’s likely that Nadiya would have done as well as her twin. There could be many more similar questions along the road to the merger but Natalie’s role during that time was sufficiently limited that we can assume Nadiya could have enjoyed the same ride. There is however an exception: Natalie’s decision to volunteer to go to Exile Island. That move played a huge role in gaining Baylor’s trust down the road so we can certainly doubt that Nadiya would have found that key ally.

The main questions come from Natalie’s game. Socially, we know that she made a big adjustment after an ebullient start. She learned from her sister’s elimination and the reactions to her outburst at Rocker. From then on, she kept her temper in check. That made her much more likable to the tribe. She used that softer approach to hide her strategic game and it was in evidence after Jeremy’s blindside. The volcanic Natalie, the one we had seen in TAR and in the first 10 days in Nicaragua, would have erupted and would probably have been quick to jump ship and join Reed’s side. Instead, Natalie showed patience and remained with her alliance even if they had kept her out of the loop. Instead of throwing her game away, she wisely secured those bonds, made them even tighter with a Final 3 offer to Missy and Baylor during their reward and then by choosing Jon and Jaclyn to share her reward. She managed to get Baylor out of Missy’s car and into her bandwagon. The duo worked together to fool Jon enough that he was voted out with an idol in his pocket. Natalie made many decisions that altered the course of the game and we certainly can say that Nadiya would not have acted exactly the same way. However, some of Natalie’s moves weren’t essential to her victory. The votes against Alec and Baylor come to mind. So maybe in her own way, Nadiya would have come up with the same result but we can certainly doubt it.

What we can say from this twin experiment is that Natalie was very lucky to be wearing a blue T-shirt on day 1 because her placement on that tribe saved her from the ignominy of a first boot. It should serve to remind us that first boots aren’t always bad players. However, Natalie’s personal skills were so important in this social game that she wasn’t a lucky winner. That victory was her own.