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Original Message
"The Twin Paradox"

Posted by michel2 on 12-31-14 at 01:54 PM
This season illustrated perfectly the randomness of this game. We have always said that the winners needed luck to become Sole Survivors but it was made evident with what can be called Survivor’s version of the Twin Paradox. We’ve often asked what would have happened if one individual had been placed in one tribe instead of the other or if the swap had worked slightly differently for some individuals. Here, while it has nothing to do with Relativity, the diametrically different results obtained by the two twins offer us empirical evidence of such a switch. Of course, we still can’t say that Nadiya would have won if she had been on Hunahpu instead of Natalie but it is still fascinating to examine the result of this social experiment.

Would Natalie have been voted out first if she was on Coyopa? We can assume that the male-female divide would have still occurred even if Natalie had picked the yellow buff. We can further assume that Coyopa would have still lost the first immunity challenge because neither Nadiya nor Natalie played a big role in it. Baylor and Josh would have still been the key votes at that first Tribal Council. Josh’s negative reaction to Nadiya’s comment that he was “one of the girls” was presented as a major factor in deciding that the pair would go with the guys. We can certainly question whether Natalie would have made the same comment but we can also ask if it had as much importance as we were shown. While the editors need to give us a clear reason for most votes, it’s usually very different on the island. It’s very doubtful that Josh would have eliminated Dale at that first TC after saying that he had saved their lives by making fire. Also, going with the guys at that stage of the game was the best way to keep the tribe competitive. So, the probabilities are high that Natalie would have been voted out first in San Juan Del Sur if she had switched places with her twin.

Would Nadiya have become the Sole Survivor if she had been on Hunahpu? That’s a much more interesting question but the answer is lot less clear because the probabilities diminish with every cycle. We can safely assume that Nadiya would have been part of what we called Jeremy’s alliance because it was in fact a women’s alliance. We can’t say for sure that Hunahpu would have won the second immunity challenge though because Natalie’s win over Val gave Hunahpu a crucial point in a very close challenge. Yet, because it was a physical challenge, it’s likely that Nadiya would have done as well as her twin. There could be many more similar questions along the road to the merger but Natalie’s role during that time was sufficiently limited that we can assume Nadiya could have enjoyed the same ride. There is however an exception: Natalie’s decision to volunteer to go to Exile Island. That move played a huge role in gaining Baylor’s trust down the road so we can certainly doubt that Nadiya would have found that key ally.

The main questions come from Natalie’s game. Socially, we know that she made a big adjustment after an ebullient start. She learned from her sister’s elimination and the reactions to her outburst at Rocker. From then on, she kept her temper in check. That made her much more likable to the tribe. She used that softer approach to hide her strategic game and it was in evidence after Jeremy’s blindside. The volcanic Natalie, the one we had seen in TAR and in the first 10 days in Nicaragua, would have erupted and would probably have been quick to jump ship and join Reed’s side. Instead, Natalie showed patience and remained with her alliance even if they had kept her out of the loop. Instead of throwing her game away, she wisely secured those bonds, made them even tighter with a Final 3 offer to Missy and Baylor during their reward and then by choosing Jon and Jaclyn to share her reward. She managed to get Baylor out of Missy’s car and into her bandwagon. The duo worked together to fool Jon enough that he was voted out with an idol in his pocket. Natalie made many decisions that altered the course of the game and we certainly can say that Nadiya would not have acted exactly the same way. However, some of Natalie’s moves weren’t essential to her victory. The votes against Alec and Baylor come to mind. So maybe in her own way, Nadiya would have come up with the same result but we can certainly doubt it.

What we can say from this twin experiment is that Natalie was very lucky to be wearing a blue T-shirt on day 1 because her placement on that tribe saved her from the ignominy of a first boot. It should serve to remind us that first boots aren’t always bad players. However, Natalie’s personal skills were so important in this social game that she wasn’t a lucky winner. That victory was her own.


Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-08-15 at 09:39 PM
Poor Michel

Such a well constructed and thought-provoked post with no reply.

Actually I found my way into the forum for the first time in this new year just now and I will gladly reply. But unlike most of your posts narrated in a stream of consciousness mode and encrypted with underlying editorial thoughts and theories, my thought pattern is depicted more with a shoot from the hip and tell it like it is (was) approach.

Without question players are victims of circumstance or beneficiaries of circumstance based on dumb a$$ luck. Generally it's the weak and inept castaways who benefit the most by being placed initially on a strong tribe who wins their ICs in the beginning of the game. But in recent seasons it's the tribal switch done by random draw where the luck factor rears its ugly head.

A hypothetical example that comes to mind is from the "One World" season. At the tribal switch if Monica had cracked the "blue" egg and Kim gets squirted with the (I think it was) yellow paint what a different turn that season takes!
Would Monica have followed the same path Kim took to deservingly win the game? Probably not. But there's little doubt our gal Kim would have suffered the same fate as Monica.

Kim on the new "pagan" tribe would have not altered the outcome of that IC dominated by the "gods & goddesses." Colton would have still been able to throw his weight around thanks to the gifted HII literally placed in his lap. His target still would have been the biggest threat among the "pagans" and at the end of the night it would have been Kim's torch snuffed. So instead of a deserving victory she doesn't even make the Jury and on her plane ride home she'd be thinking of what to wear when taking her place in the top row on the Finale Night stage.
A hypothetical victim of circumstance.

Like I said, this is just one example...most seasons have similar situations.
OK, back to San Juan del Sur.

I agree the first boot is not always a "bad" player, but in this past season the first boot was a stupid player.

AHHHH YEAH, your darn tootin' there's importance repeatedly referring to a homosexual man as "one of the girls." Had Natalie made that same ignorant reference, then yes, she would have taken Nadiya's place as the first boot of the season. And appropriately so. Now would she have??? Impossible to say...I think probably not.

An early factor in the season premier was no Copoya female wanted to partner with Baylor. Whether she was immediately pegged as a 20-year old spoiled cheerleader brat or perhaps some other reasons, Baylor did not find herself in any girl alliance so consequently she gravitated toward the men and not surprisingly voted their way.

The sister-like relationship between Natalie and Baylor was undeniable. Yes it was solidified by the time they spent on Exile Island, but I'm a firm believer that (not only on Survivor but) in all walks of life some people naturally click and some people clash. I think a bond between Natalie and Baylor would have occurred even without that one day on Exile Island. Now would that have occurred during the early days on the Copoya tribe? Maybe. And if so, Baylor might not have been forced to gravitate toward the men.

It would have also forced Josh to take a stand at the first TC and not be a wussy boy able to cast a throw away vote knowing Nadiya already had five votes. Being forced to have to choose a side a strong case could be made he would have leaned more toward siding with Baylor/Natalie making Dale the first boot of the season. Tough call to make.

Whereas it's tough to say if Natalie would be the first boot, it's easier to say Nadiya winning the game would have been very remote because so many Natalie events would need to be duplicated.

I think Nadiya would have made the merge because A) she was fortunate to be casted initially on the Hunahpu tribe, and B) she was fortunate in the random draw tribal switch. That being said, Natalie was fortunate to make the merge.

But it was AFTER the merge that defined Natalie as the dominant player this season and the deserving winner. Several game-winning moves were spearheaded by Natalie, and to suggest Nadiya would have made each and every one of those moves is improbable.

Natalie more than held her own in all the individual challenges. Given their similar stature a convincing argument could be made that Nadiya may have performed just as well, but one never knows.

Let's not forget Natalie also found a HII. You can't say for sure if Nadiya would have exhibited the same perseverance or doesn't just pull a "Jaclyn" and not even give a solid effort to look.

What we do know is the most deserving castaway won and the Jury (with the exception of pathetic Reed) voted without any sore-losing whiny disgruntled malice crowning the right player Sole Survivor.

On a side note that's two seasons in a row when the most deserving player from the same state (NJ) emerged victorious. Other than maybe California (where we all know has a monopoly on Reality Show casting) I don't believe that has happened before. Of course I'm going from memory so if I'm wrong I trust there'll be replies on my post correcting me. LOL

And sandwiched between the last two Survivor seasons, if Cody (BB16) had the nads to take pathetically inept Victoria with him to the Finals we could have had a NJ Reality Show trifecta!

Well Happy New Year Michel. Even though we rarely see eye-to-eye...I luv ya...Man!!!


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-10-15 at 01:39 AM
Happy New Year, Aruba.
I also enjoy talking to you a lot.

I will disagree with you on Kim however. Colton even said on the show that he was disappointed that he didn't wind up with Kim so he doesn't vote her out. He also said that the reason he booted Monica was because she was (s)mothering him, something Kim would not have done. Frankly, if Kim or Sabrina had been placed on Nu Manono, I think Colton goes with the girls and boots some of the guys instead.

As for Nadiya and Natalie, I stand by what I said: It's very interesting to note how two twins wound up with totally opposite results just by being put on different tribes. They cannot be compared to Kim and Monica, two totally different personalities.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-10-15 at 09:03 AM
You are correct that Kim/Monica cannot be compared to Natalie/Nadiya from a personality standpoint. That was not my intention. I only used the "One World" example as a hypothetical case to support the fact that victims of circumstance will always exist on Reality Shows.

I didn't catch Colton's statement voicing his disappointment of not winding up with Kim. If he said it during the season I must have taken a nap during that episode. If he said it on the Reunion Show/Finale he clearly had a ton of damage control to perform...and what better way than to blow some sunshine up the butt of the season's winner.

In any event, anything such a pitiful, rueful individual like Colton would ever say I would take with LESS than a grain of salt. I will stand by what actually happened on Nu Manono where Colton used the power of his HII to pick off the most threatening player on that "pagan" tribe. As a result of the luck of the draw tribal switch we know the pickings were slim so not sure which guy he would have targeted if Monica was not the victim of circumstance.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-11-15 at 04:00 AM
Leif and then Tarzan.

I think you will have to watch the season again because Colton did say he would have liked to be with Kim right after the swap.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-11-15 at 10:46 AM
Dwarf Leif and 60-year old Tarzan...Yeah, those are certainly a couple of threats capable of running the table to the Finals. lol

I could watch the season a dozen times and I'd never put any stock into whatever verbal diarrhea could come out of the mouth from a vile loser like Colton.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-11-15 at 01:14 PM
But you must at least remember that Colton was extremely mad at Leif for talking to Bill and that he LOVED Sabrina and Kim for welcoming him to their side of the beach. There is no question that Colton decided to go with the Misfits ONLY because he didn't wind up with the women he liked.

"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-12-15 at 08:09 AM
I don't recall any Welcome Wagon rolled out for Colton. Sabrina/Kim pretty much told him to scram before he walked away from their side of the beach lonely and rejected. I remember because I was the Summary Writer for that episode and from what I recall Colton darn near started crying like a 5-year old girl because no one wanted to accept him for the drama queen he was.

Bill was already out of the game so any bug Colton had up his butt with Leif pretty much flew away. Leif was not only a non-threat in the challenges, he was even LESS of a social threat. He was arguably the biggest non-entity in that season. Any plan spearheaded to boot Leif at that time would have been a complete waste of a TC. Even Colton knew that.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-13-15 at 01:58 PM
This is Colton's confessional right after the swap:

Colton: “When I cracked that egg and saw I was in orange, I looked around and Jay was covered in Blue, Troyzan was Blue. I looked over and Kim was blue and Sabrina was blue and I just thought...BEEP!”

He SPECIFICALLY complains about being separated from Kim and Sabrina so I think your memory is failing you. He would never have voted either out.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-13-15 at 07:53 PM
I didn't regard that as being upset he was not with Kim and/or Sabrina. He was bummed he was not on a strong tribe capable of winning ICs so he could move ahead in the game.

He (and his gifted HII) would love to have benefitted from being on a strong tribe for the same reason other weak challenge castaways benefit from being on winning tribes.

But when fate dictated he would be with the pagans he decided to target the stronger players.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-14-15 at 05:08 PM
Really??? You will defend your point to the death, it seems!!!

OK, let's admit he was only complaining because Sabrina dn Kim would have helped him win challenges then why didn't he mention Chelsea and Mike. THOSE TWO were the strongests. Your point doesn't stand to close scrutiny.
Kim would ahve been totally safe if she had wound up on NuManono.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-14-15 at 09:05 PM
LAST EDITED ON 01-14-15 AT 09:15 PM (EST)

This wasn't just about Kim or Sabrina...this was about how upset he was over the difference between the tribes after the switch. Any weak pansy like Colton would have wanted to be on a stacked team to win challenges.

Unfortunately my initial hypothetical situation to support the victim of circumstance principle of just merely swapping Monica for Kim...period...got muddied with the introduction of other different castaways.

Yes if Kim, Troyzan, Jay, and other strong challenge competitors got grouped with Colton after the swap I agree Kim would have been safe. Or if it was Mike who was switched with Monica; Mike goes. If Chelsea got switched with Monica; Chelsea goes. I used Kim in my example because she ended up winning the season. But switching JUST Kim for Monica no way non-threats like Leif or Tarzan gets booted over Kim.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-15-15 at 06:27 PM
I didn't muddy the situation by introducing other players. My point remains: Switch ONLY Kim with Monica and Kim makes the merge.

Here's another way to look at it: After the switch, who became Colton's number one ally? Alicia. Not Jonas, Leif or Tarzan but Alicia. If Kim had been there with Alicia and Christina, who would have been Colton's number one ally? KIM

In fact, she probably convinces Colton that they will be able to work together after the merge so that one of Leif or tarzan leaves at the point. If Colton wasn't faking then he leaves next and then Kim reaches the merger with the women up 7-5, making it only easier for her!


To think I wanted to talk about THIS season.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-18-15 at 07:41 AM
Because of Alicia's distain for Christina at that point in the game, Alicia's primary objective was to immediately align with someone to create a tag team bullying effort against Christina. Jonas, Tarzan or Leif couldn't fit that bill, but Colton was the perfect ally for that hateful purpose. And having his HII didn't hurt his cause either.

Jonas, Leif and Tarzan didn't try to become Colton's number one ally because they were up 4 guys to 3 girls after the tribal switch, and with two of the three (Alicia/Christina) down each other's throat the three guys felt safe enough to sit back and pick off the girls.

Not Kim nor anyone was going to get Alicia and Christina on the same page immediately after tribal switch. The biggest female threat was going home at their TC.

As much as I want to talk about THIS season also, when the deserving castaway wins and with a Jury not voting for Miss Congeniality and getting it right there's not a whole lot more to talk about.

And I do enjoy strolling down memory lane sometimes...


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-18-15 at 02:07 PM
LAST EDITED ON 01-18-15 AT 02:08 PM (EST)

>Because of Alicia's distain for Christina
>at that point in the
>game, Alicia's primary objective was
>to immediately align with someone
>to create a tag team
>bullying effort against Christina.

This is absolutely, completely WRONG.

As proof: Alicia's second confessional after the swap:

Alicia: “I don’t consider Colton as one of the guys so I think we have 4 girls against 3 guys but Colton is crazy. He really wants Christina out but I really need to keep my girls and get rid of the guys so that, when we merge, I am still there. I want to keep my name out of the mix and, if we do have to get rid of some girls it will be Christina and Monica but definitely not me.”

That blows all your arguments out of the water. Alicia wanted to keep all the girls safe but, while she did save herself, she couldn't save Monica. I'm sure Kim would have done better than Alicia, keeping herself safe and saving the other two women also.

Note also that Colton's first target was Christina NOT Monica. The disgusting treatment of Christina started only in the following episode.


>Jonas, Leif and Tarzan didn't try
>to become Colton's number one
>ally because they were up
>4 guys to 3 girls
>after the tribal switch, and
>with two of the three
>(Alicia/Christina) down each other's throat
>the three guys felt safe
>enough to sit back and
>pick off the girls.

Even this is wrong as far as Jonas is concerned. Listen to what Jonas himself said: “While we are working, busting our a$$ building this shelter, Colton is doing the same thing, sitting on his a$$ talking to Alicia... What is that? It’s like Colton is running the show on both sides with both the men and the women but it would be ridiculous of me not to think that he is with the women right now.”



"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-19-15 at 08:24 PM
LAST EDITED ON 01-19-15 AT 08:25 PM (EST)

The disgusting treatment of Christina started in the Premier, exploded at the first TC and carried over into the tribal swap. There's no question Alicia was hoping for the three girls + the pansy to outnumber the three guys, but by playing the game on an emotional level that wasn't going to happen.

Even when Christina tried to offer an olive branch to Alicia after the first TC, the pathetic piece of trash that defined Alicia's character prevented that from happened. Thanks to that the three girls (Alicia, Christina, and whomever) were doomed.

Jonas was a pristine model of paranoia. Of course Jonas was immediately nervous because Colton was such a wildcard (thanks to the gifted HII.) But after it became abundantly clear of the major faction between Alicia/Christina (thanks to Alicia,) the guys had good reason to feel safer.

Yes Kim was the deserving winner but you think WAAAAY too highly of her. There's nothing Kim nor anyone would have said or done to convince Colton otherwise. Colton was only going to listen to one person...Colton. Frankly I don't give a hoot who his "first" target may have been; it's who his LAST target was that mattered.

And his last target was the only threatening challenge competitor among the "pagan" tribe.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Agman2 on 01-26-15 at 05:30 PM
Michel2 and Aruba, I love it, I feel like I'm watching a tennis match with you two!

"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-27-15 at 05:24 PM
Happy to entertain you, Agman2!

I like the tennis analogy. Hard to talk tennis without thinking of the greatest rivalry in professional sports--Navratilova vs. Evert. Kinda like Michel and myself, a contrast in styles.

As much as you must respect Evert as the great champion she was, her repetitious baseline game put me to sleep even after drinking two pots of coffee. Navratilova on the other hand was more like let me shove my serve down your throat and if you can handle it...more power to you.

Chrissie was the model of political correctness. Listening to her interviews or press conferences was like reading an Ernest Hemingway novel at times. Martina wore her heart on her sleeve, shot from the hip, and told it like it was.

HMMMMM...so who's who in this analogy??? LOL


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 01-27-15 at 09:40 PM
I always prefered Steffi Graf myself...
And Agman, jump in and let us know what you think.

"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-28-15 at 08:14 AM
I always prefered Steffi Graf myself...

Me too...even though I would suspect most men would say Anna Kournikova was their favorite model who ever "held a tennis racquet." Whereas Steffi had the legs of a model but the face of a collie, no one can dispute her greatness on the tennis court ranking her as my personal favorite female tennis player of all-time.

Although when you talk about rivals, you'd be hard pressed to top Navratilova vs. Evert when you consider the number of championships they faced against each other head-to-head during their illustrious careers.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Agman2 on 01-28-15 at 11:54 AM
LAST EDITED ON 01-28-15 AT 12:07 PM (EST)


Actually, In the case of you two stellar survivor pundits, I was thinking more in terms of Jimmy Connors and John Mcenroe!
Outspoken, controversial, and highly entertaining!


Also, two of the alltime greats.
As for my favorite female tennis player of all time, I have to go with Chris Evert. In my youth I always thought she was hot.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Agman2 on 01-29-15 at 06:17 PM
Ok, now where did Jimmy and John go?



"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 01-29-15 at 07:07 PM
Given the choice of the two I wanna be Jimmy.

His historic run to the semis of the US Open when he was pushing 40 was an inspiration to all of us middle-aged folks.

...oh, and being married to a Penthouse Pet doesn't hurt either!


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-01-15 at 03:52 PM
Wrong again: Patti McGuire was Playboy's Playmate of the Year in 1977.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Agman2 on 02-02-15 at 01:14 PM
Hmmmm, Penthouse Pet, or Playmate of he year? This is what I'm talkin' 'bout!!!! Now, here's where I'll really get you going, who was better in your opinions Jimmy Connors or John McEnroe


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-02-15 at 06:16 PM
Are you trying to start a fight?! It may not look that way but I consider Aruba as a friend, a fellow Survivor fan. We simply don't see things the same way because he values more the athletic competition while I see it as a social game. He'd try to win all the challenges while I'd align with him, throw a few challenges and get my other alliances to boot the physical threat that he represents!

Anyway, better in the case of two tennis players from the same era is easy to determine. Jimmy has the better record. I prefer John's style but he won less titles.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Agman2 on 02-02-15 at 07:03 PM
Whoa, I thought we were all just joking around here lol.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-02-15 at 09:04 PM
I was...

"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 02-02-15 at 07:48 PM
Michel's my main dude on these Boards.

Unlike other Reality Shows, I will always view Survivor being more of a competitive game as opposed to some social experiment of tossing a bunch of human laboratory rats in a controlled environment. Although sadly as the years progress we are leaning more toward that concept. In any event Survivor will always be more of a "Robinson Crusoe" analogy to me. Clearly if you are a social moron you don't deserve to advance but I will always favor physicality in any type of competition and look more down upon the weak and inept who need to be carried.

Anyway, with Connors and McEnroe their great careers overlapped rather than coincided, thus the "rivalry" concept did not apply as much as a Navratilova vs. Evert when most of the matches were played in their prime.

I'll agree with Michel and give the nod to Jimmy. With the exception of Sampras, no one got more mileage out of the serve and volley game than Johnny Mac, whereas Jimmy's game was more well-rounded. As Michel mentioned, Jimmy won more titles...I know a little while back he was the all-time leader in career titles. Hard to ignore that stat when deciding between the two.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-02-15 at 09:28 PM
It isn't "sadly progressing" in that direction at all because that is how it started. In Episode 1 of Borneo Jeff calls it a "social experiment." In the very first page of his book, Burnett wrote about his idea for the show: "It...led me to search for a new and clever "nature based" way of providing men and women with an opportunity to discover who they really were. Survivor was the outcome of that search."

The deserted island and the challenges only serve as catalysts. The experiment is all about the characters and their interactions.

The only sad progression is that viewers demand more shock value. Back in 2000-01, Hatch and Jerri were considered villains but what did they really do that was villainous? They made alliances and Jerri flirted. The new viewers, the ones that started watching during Cook islands or Samoa or even later, look back at Hatch and Jerri and don't really see what the big deal was. Hence, casting has to come up with Shamars, Culpeppers, Coltons and Rockers. When that intended villain proves to be harmless like the ex-pitcher, the season falls flat like San Juan del Sur even if I found it interesting.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 02-08-15 at 11:47 AM
Survivor was not the first Reality Show to hit mainstream TV. That distinction belongs to MTV “The Real World.” It was dubbed a social experiment about half a decade before Burnett had his brainchild we all know as “Survivor.” Thus it is not surprising in episode one of its inaugural season or on Burnett’s “first page” they focus on “social experiment” to assess a theme.

But it is the physicality, i.e. starvation, dehydration, challenges, etc. that sets Survivor apart from all the other reality shows. It’s also why I will always regard Survivor as my favorite Reality TV show. These physical factors are FAR more than just mere “catalysts.” Without this physicality Survivor would have fallen by the wayside much like many other reality shows. Anyone who has followed Survivor from its beginnings has to admit castaways do not starve like they used to…do not dehydrate like they used to…and do not wear down like they used. THAT is what I refer to when I note the “sad progression.”

Although I do see your point when you question “villainous” during the early seasons. Personally I will always regard liars as “sorry sacks of sh!t.” But do I necessarily label them “villains?” No; Hatch is more of a “sorry sack of sh!t” than a villain in my book. Do I consider Jerri a villain because she is a self-centered B!tch?” No; she’s just…well…a self-centered B!tch.

This whole villain shock value came to the forefront with Hantz. Was he the first scoundrel to be casted? Far from it. But he was a castaway wearing the largest black hat in Samoa who owned the game by searching harder and playing harder than anyone else that season. From that point on Production decided they would ride that shock wave and part of its casting would be devoted to selecting worthless pieces of trash or pathetically inept losers with a mean or bad streak. But when they are unable to own the game the way Hantz did, I agree with your assessment that those “intended villains” prove harmless and the season runs the risk of falling flat.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-08-15 at 02:32 PM
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-15 AT 02:54 PM (EST)

>Survivor was not the first Reality
>Show to hit mainstream TV.
>That distinction belongs to MTV
>“The Real World.” It was
>dubbed a social experiment about
>half a decade before Burnett
>had his brainchild we all
>know as “Survivor.” Thus
>it is not surprising in
>episode one of its inaugural
>season or on Burnett’s “first
>page” they focus on “social
>experiment” to assess a theme.

It was more than just a sales pitch. Often in his book Burnett comes back to state that the winner will not be the one that wins more challenges or provides more for his tribe but the one that handles the social aspect best.
One of his first quotes about the show was: "Survivor is 2 parts adventure contest and 8 parts surviving the peer group." Or, again, later: "Survivor is...about Machiavellian politics at their most primal. Human dynamics mean everything."


>But it is the physicality, i.e.
>starvation, dehydration, challenges, etc. that
>sets Survivor apart from all
>the other reality shows.
>It’s also why I will
>always regard Survivor as my
>favorite Reality TV show.
>These physical factors are FAR
>more than just mere “catalysts.”
>Without this physicality Survivor would
>have fallen by the wayside
>much like many other reality
>shows.

I know you watch Big Brother, a show whose very existence contradicts this statement. Like you, I appreciate Survivor a hell of a lot more than Big Brother in part because of its deserted island aspect but BB hasn't fallen by the wayside. For me, Survivor is simply a better game because it depends less on challenges than Big Brother.

>Anyone who has followed
>Survivor from its beginnings has
>to admit castaways do not
>starve like they used to…do
>not dehydrate like they used
>to…and do not wear down
>like they used. THAT is
>what I refer to when
>I note the “sad progression.”

Really? Then explain this:

Do you think as many people would have quit in later seasons if they had been given parkas? Bikinis are simply better for ratings than parkas. And what about Swan who nearly died out there in Samoa? Starvation and dehydration are still big problems. What's funniest is that the water from the wells never needed to be boiled but no one ever tells the players!


>Although I do see your point
>when you question “villainous” during
>the early seasons. Personally I
>will always regard liars as
>“sorry sacks of sh!t.” But
>do I necessarily label them
>“villains?” No; Hatch is more
>of a “sorry sack of
>sh!t” than a villain in
>my book. Do I consider
>Jerri a villain because she
>is a self-centered B!tch?” No;
>she’s just…well…a self-centered B!tch.

Besides telling Jeff Probe that there wasn't a Tagi 4 alliance, what lie did Hatch tell? I'll admit that Jerri was self centered but what bitchy thing did she do? Kel's beef jerky? Everyone was in on that, not just Jerri and they had all decided during the trek that Kel, the lone wolf, would be first to go.

>This whole villain shock value came
>to the forefront with Hantz.

I'd give the credit to Fairplay myself. That was the biggest shock in unscripted Drama TV. I still have a hard time understanding why you give so much credit to that @sshole Hantz. Leave that to the newbies who discovered the show during his season.


>From that point on Production decided
>they would ride that shock
>wave and part of its
>casting would be devoted to
>selecting worthless pieces of trash
>or pathetically inept losers with
>a mean or bad streak.
>But when they are unable
>to own the game the
>way Hantz did, I agree
>with your assessment that those
>“intended villains” prove harmless and
>the season runs the risk
>of falling flat.

I agree but it started much earlier and it wasn't only because of what happened on Survivor. Society in general is much darker than it was 15 years ago. What shocked in 2000 is harmless today thus the ante has to be raised. Watch All-Stars again and look how they villainized Lex. Then look at the next seasons where the editors turned Ami into a villain, Probe harped on Twila's swearing on her children during the Vanuatu reunion, the casting of Shane in full nicotine withdrawal and Judd in full sportsmanship withdrawal, etc...
It's been a continuous curve. Phillip is merely Rory with more Reality TV experience. His acting got him a reinvitation and an opportunity to sell his book while who remembers Rory today besides us nuts?

The new trend is all about "Big Moves" and listen to the castaways introduction videos to know that they have learned the lesson. Probst has dwelled on it so much that people will do big moves at the expense of their own game like Ciera and the tie vote or Natalie and her needless risks.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 02-09-15 at 07:08 AM
I said MANY reality shows have fallen by the wayside; not ALL of them. And anyone who has watched Big Brother over the years cannot deny the fact it has lost a fair amount of steam in recent seasons.

Here's another example of you not reading every word in my post...when I talk about physicality I am referencing starvation and performing in challenges. Other than providing us a visual as you stroll down memory lane, wearing a parka does not address the starvation issue and does not help one in challenges. In any event season two parkas have given way to hoodies, sweaters, leg warmers and other articles of clothing they are now allowed to enter the game with to help brave the elements.

Quitters can be blamed SQUARELY on Production and the inadequate job they do casting for the show. In the beginning everyone had to apply and an involved screening process was conducted which could have been used to weed out those with quitting tendencies. Now with many players "recruited" for the show, they bypass much of that process and we have witnessed the negative effects throughout the recent years.

So denying the Tagi alliance was Hatch's ONLY lie? HMMMM, funny how Sue Hawk referred to Richard as a "snake" in her infamous speech. Unless you can convince me a snake is a symbol of honesty and integrity you'll have a hard time selling me on that.

After Season 4 the E! Network had a special series on Survivor where several castaways from the first four seasons were interviewed. Richard said HIMSELF, forget honesty...lie to everyone...this is for a million bucks!

Jerri's b!tchy attitude went far beyond the beef jerky incident. Most everyone had it with her abrasive b!tchy way. For a RC during the middle of that season the castaways had to draw names to partner up for the challenge. Jerri's b!tchy self-centered attitude came to the forefront when she started b!tching about wanting to PICK her partner...and naturally she wanted Colby. Even Colby (the object of her affection) wanted no part of her b!tchiness.

On that same E! Network special they interviewed Maralyn who said something to the effect if they didn't have the rule disallowing the striking of another player she would have wiped up the Outback with that *bleep*

Once again if you REALLY read my post, you'd see where I SPECIALLY stated Hantz was not the first player ever casted to wear the black hat. Sure Fairplay fit the bill, but Johnny was a one-trick pony. His villainous attitude was ALL he had going for him. He flat out sucked in challenges and even if they had HIIs in his season it would have hardy meant a difference for his individual game.

Hantz is an @sshole...no two ways about it. But I will not let my personal dislike for the man deny the fact he owned that season. It's not a case of me giving him so much credit as much as me telling it like it was. Unlike Fairplay he searched and played harder than anyone. Even beyond the idols he found, let's not forget he pulls out the final IC which allowed him and those riding his coattails to advance to the Finals and be given a chance to win.

Once again, I suppose everyone will have a different definition for villain. In the season they had the audacity to call "All-Stars," Lex proved to be a hypocritical sore-loser. But did that make him a "villain?" IMHO, No. And Ami having an issue with men does not necessarily make her a villain in my book; just a femi-nazi.

Finally I would not classify "Big Moves" as a NEW trend. It has been used by anyone with the primary objective to WIN even from the beginning. But unfortunately what has been more prevalent is players just being satisfied to advance in the game. If one's primary/sole objective is to be the Sole Survivor they will be more inclined to make the Big Moves as opposed to an UTR or coattail rider happy to be carried deeper into the game.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-09-15 at 12:02 PM
Big Brother has certainly lost steam over the years but so has Survivor! As far as I'm concerned, it jumped the shark way back in season 13. But, for the purpose of this discussion, I did read every word of your post but did you read all of mine? Besides starvation and performing in challenges, you also mentioned wearing down. Being cold and damp has been the main factor for people quitting therefore the parka image was totally appropriate. As for starvation and dehydration, I mentioned Swan which you ignored.

Yes, Sue called Hatch a snake BECAUSE his plan got everyone eliminated. That's the game. Tell me what lie did YOU hear from him? Give me ONE example besides his lie about the alliance. See, back in 2000 all you needed to do to be a villain was form an alliance. That doesn't even get you airtime today.

You see Jerri picking Colby as an example of b*tchiness? It doesn't take much to offend you. I thought you'd see that as an example of someone actively optimizing her chances of winning a challenge!!! Like you, Maralyn fell for the editing of Jerri as the villain when, in actuality, she was simply trying to win the game. It's also amusing that you use the term of "nazi" to define Ami yet deny her the role of villain.

I am aware that you wrote Hantz wasn't the first player cast to be the villain but I contested the notion that he somehow changed the way the casting process is done. Casting for villains goes all the way back to the early seasons. Fairplay was the first true villain. He did more than just have a villainous attitude. He played a big part in turning the table on Burton and getting him voted out pre-merge, then he quickly realized that the Outcasts were his ticket to the end so he got Burton and Lill on his side and booted Rupert and Christa after finishing off most of Drake. Not bad for a "one-trick poney".

Finally, listen to the introduction videos to see that Jeff has gotten the players to say exactly what he wants. You don't have to make big moves to win this game, you have to make the right moves. They may be big, they may be subtle but they have to be effective. Riding coat tails can be effective. Big moves are mostly for ratings.

Ciera is now remembered as a player who made big moves but did she win? Tying the vote was a STUPID move for her. Watch that TC again and maybe you will realize, like I did back then, that Ciera made the decision to force a tie ONLY because Jeff wanted her to do it.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 02-09-15 at 09:08 PM
Wearing down in my mind does not mean being a pansy when the temperature drops. I was still referring to the starvation factor. Simply put, Swan was an idiot. His leadership role went to head to the point where he felt the need to put out the effort of four or five men. If you're going to do that you better have the hydration of four or five men. He did not; so he sealed his fate.

Listen, I don't have all these seasons on DVD and I am not going back to watch episodes. Everything I post on these Boards are from memory, so OBVIOUSLY I can't remember EVERY bloody detail. But I do recall when Hatch's tribe lost the first IC because Sonya performed horribly she was justifiably concerned. I do remember Hatch assuring her everything would be OK. Sure...everything was OK...that's why she became the first castaway voted off in the history of Survivor. LOL
Bottom line mostly everyone who ever played with Hatch referred to him as a lying snake. For crying out loud he even openly admitted it HIMSELF. The other thing he ever openly admitted to more is being gay.

Jerri wanting to partner with Colby is not what reinforced her as a b!tch. Not wanting the follow the rules of randomly drawing to select your partner and wanting to pick her partner so she could have HER way was an example of her being a self-centered b!tch.

Pearl Islands was a case of the Anti-Darwin Syndrome running rampant. In the second half of the season the pathetically weak had the numbers and picked off the stronger players one-by-one. Fairplay was just one of the pathetically inept in the majority. He didn't have to do a cotton-picking thing other than let the ADS take its course.

Ciera forced the tie because it was either that or have to control her own fate and win challenges. She was too pathetically inept for the latter so she took a chance on the tie and hoped the purple rock would Anti-Darwin one of the stronger players out. The only criticism I have is because of the Redemption Island twist even if Tyson drew the purple rock he still would have had a chance to win his way back into the game, but I would hardly call the best shot she had to advance "stupid."


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-09-15 at 11:06 PM
Going by memory can be tricky. It seems obvious that you forgot that Hatch didn't vote for Sonja at that first TC. He voted for Stacy. Also, we never saw Hatch talking to Sonja after the loss so no, he didn't lie to her. You also seem to forget that Hatch's best friend out there was Rudy, a no-nonsense straightshooter who would not have been friends with a liar. Hatch was very honest with his allies. The audience saw him as a villain because he got rid of all their favorites. Hatch went along afterwards and adopted that now legendary persona. That's why he admitted it himself.

As for Jerri it doesn't take you much to call someone a b*tch.

Fairplay's main ally in the 2nd half was Burton and he wanted to go to the end with the strongest guy out there so how exactly did he "let the ADS take its course"?

Finally, I see that you missed the big picture regarding Ciera. Even if Tyson had picked the white rock Ciera wouldn't have won the game: Hayden would have won.
After Katie got eliminated, Ciera tried hard to get Monica to flip on Gervase and Tyson but Monica knew that move would also be giving the game to Hayden.
Ciera had ONE chance of winning that game: Going along with booting Hayden at 6 THEN convincing Monica to join her and KATIE to the end. Katie was certainly not the jury threat that Hayden was so Monica may have taken the chance to flip. But Probst wanted ratings and big moves so he coerced Ciera into tying the vote.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 02-10-15 at 08:45 PM
Going from memory is not only tricky, it's down right stupid when you need to recollect from a decade and a half ago in order to confirm the obvious.

I know Hatch gave Sonja assurance when he knew she would be voted off, but I not going to waste anymore time testing each other's long-term memory squabbling about the obvious.

YOU ARE...WHO YOU ARE...WHO YOU ARE.

With Hatch and Jerri those who lived with them 24/7 labeled them as a dishonest snake and self-centered b!tch respectively. Now just because others gave them those labels should we etch it in stone? No, but for me I'll reflect on events that transpired after this decade and a half point in time to determine if they got it right or got it wrong.

BOTTOMLINE...our Judicial System wouldn't have thrown Hatch in the slammer if he wasn't a dishonest snake. And why did he spend time in the Big House?...because...

YOU ARE...WHO YOU ARE...WHO YOU ARE.

BOTTOMLINE...only a self-centered b!tch would storm off the set during the Reunion Show. And why was Jerri the ONLY player in the ENTIRE history of Survivor to walk off like she did?...because...

YOU ARE...WHO YOU ARE...WHO YOU ARE.

Anyone who still wants to be delusional and contend Hatch is not a lying snake and Jerri is not a self-centered b!tch can go home, feed their pet unicorns, and kick back with an ice cold beer that flows freely from their kitchen faucets. LOL

In Pearl Islands the ADS played out because in the endgame most of those remaining were the pathetically inept, so the solid competitors were doomed unless they ran the table. Fairplay stayed close to Burton to get his vote on the Jury, and he would have if pathetic Lil had not made the bonehead decision and given the win to Sandra out of default.

Yes, in hindsight pathetically inept Ciera had no chance to win because there were still a few solid competitors in the mix, i.e., Tyson, Monica, Hayden. Ciera represented one of the many in the game of Survivor who sadly advances to the endgame mainly because they pose no threat to win crucial challenges down the stretch.

Now it can work out if the ADS allows such a castaway to advance with other pathetically inepts, i.e. Pearl Island. Or they sit before a cry-baby sore-losing jury who casts disgruntled votes allowing a winner by default.

Yes, Ciera was desperate...and desperate times called for desperate measures which is why she took a chance with the rocks.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-11-15 at 06:25 PM
So, you just choose to ignore that Hatch didn't vote for Souna or that Rudy trusted and liked him. I still maintain that Hatch did nothing in Borneo to be called a villain.

Yes, I know you believe that you are who you are. Myself, I say: You are who you are...unless the editors have others ideas for you. We all saw Hatch and Jerri return to the game and they simply weren't who they were in their first seasons. Neither was Stephenie, Ami and many others. When the editors don't need to make something out of a particular character then we see who they really are. Steph wasn't the superwoman sweetheart in Guatemala while Ami was quite ordinary in Micronesia.

Ciera took a chance on the rock because she wanted to please Jiffy.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 02-11-15 at 09:11 PM
Yes, Hatch was only called a villain because most of the cast behaved the way America thought they should (when nobody had any clue what an 'alliance' was) and how dare this guy come in and band a few people together to vote as one?!? How dare this guy sit in a tree and do nothing to help the tribe out during the first night or two?!?

It was a naïve America back then in the year 2000, one that had yet to be exposed to the real snakes and rats to come in future seasons and on many, many other reality shows.

Today? Most Survivor contestants today would sneer at what Hatch did back in Borneo and call him an amateur. That's how times have changed.


"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by michel2 on 02-11-15 at 09:38 PM
Thank you Pepe!

"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 02-11-15 at 10:11 PM
Yeah, remember the uproar in the newspapers after the very first episode? The headlines screamed, "They voted out the nicest person in America!"

"RE: The Twin Paradox"
Posted by Aruba on 02-02-15 at 07:19 PM
I couldn't remember her name...never mind what skin mag she posed in. LOL

Any red-blooded guy who was fortunate to spend any "quality time" with her would care less if she was Playmate of the Year, Penthouse Pet, Hustler Honey, etc. etc...