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Is the editing. Particularly from last nights episode, it was very clear that MB was trying to show that Amber was the favorite to win it all. They spent the last 15 minutes focusing on Shi-Ann's little speech and how she wanted to show everyone who she thought was playing the best game and who if everyone were not careful this was who would win the game, and the editing made it clear that everyone knew that it was Amber. I could be totally wrong about this, but usually MB does not make it this easy for the general viewing audience to figure out who is going to win. And after last night, I spoke with a few friends who are I suppose what you would call "average" viewers (meaning they do not get on these boards), and they all felt totally certain that Amber would win the million (granted they all felt that she would win it against Rob). So really, the only surprise would be that she doesnt go against Rob, if this is the scenario that plays out, and I am not sure that MB would want to show us with 2 episodes to go who is going to win.
That is my only issue with this scenario. Your logic is totally sound, but I have trouble believing that MB would lay the winner out for us that easily.
Edited to clean up...Clearly I had some fat fingers here.
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -