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"Pattern to bootees"
EMT135 52 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-12-04, 10:27 AM (EST)
 
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1. "RE: Pattern to bootees" |
Interesting, Esquire. I hadn't thought about it, but you make an excellent point. We've been focusing a lot on winners, but not so much on finalists.
I do believe that one of the four finalists from previous seasons has a good shot to make it to the F4 based on editing up to this point (Tom), but we'll see what develops from here.
EMT
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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03-12-04, 12:13 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Pattern to bootees" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-18-04 AT 01:22 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-15-04 AT 03:21 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 03-12-04 AT 12:18 PM (EST) Excellent point. Look at the prior placing of the bootees so far: Tina (1), Rudy (3), Jenna M (1), Rob C (3), Rich (1), Sue (4), Colby (2), Ethan (1) Average placing of bootees = 2 Here is the placing, alphabetically, of those remaining: Alicia (9), Amber (7), Jenna L (7), Jerri (8), Kathy (3), Lex (3), Rob M (10), Rupert (8), Shii Ann (10), Tom (4) Average placing of remaining players: 6.9 The best placing 1st round players still in the game are Ethan, Kathy, and Lex. Other interesting factoids: 1a. 3 of the 4 S1 players are gone
1b. ALL of the evil Tagi alliance are gone. The only remaining S1 contestant is Pagong
2a. 2 of the 5 S2 players are gone
2b. The core of the Okagor alliance is gone
2c. The expendable fringe of Okagor is still playing
2d. Alicia is the only Kucha member playing, and she's still around
3. ALL of the Boran boys are still playing
4. All of Marquesas players are still playing.
5. The only S5 player is still playing
6. Both of the Amazon players are gone.
7. Rupert is still playing. This is definitely revenge of the underdogs! edit to comment on bobscure's post: <<By allowing the weaker players or players who didn't do as well the first time to control your future the strong players condemn themselves to the weak players past. >> You know, what the "weaker players" figured out VERY early on is that they need to gang up on the "stronger players." Had the "stronger players" realized that early on, they might have prevented the dominance of the "weaker players." As it is, the chances of a former "finalist" to win are getting slimmer by the weak! edit to adjust averages following the Ethan boot. This means that all the bootees had an average placing of 2nd, and the remaining players finished almost 7th.
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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03-15-04, 03:20 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Pattern to bootees" |
oops - will go back and correct that. thx for the catch!
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ValleyGirl 377 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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03-13-04, 11:50 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Pattern to bootees" |
Based on the analysis and pattern, it really doesn't look good at all for Ethan either this week or next. Also, Lex and Kathy won't be around for the finals if this pattern continues.
It's looking more and more like RobM, Amber, JennaL & Alicia for final four.
 Valley Girl
"Lex, you blindsided me, I thought you were my friend?....."
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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03-13-04, 12:37 PM (EST)
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8. "Confessional analysis" |
It seems a pattern is developing with respect to confessionals and face time. Krautboy, et al, at ABT have done a fine job of analyzing this on that site. Here's the link:http://www.acmebraintrust.com/index.php?page=463&parent=463 A$$ Confesional Theory: The booted player disappears the episode prior to their boot. Evidence: Jenna 6 has two confessionals in E2 as most of the drama is centered upon Saboga, who will go to TC and vote out Rudy. Rich, Lex and Colby get more attention in Mogo than Jenna. Jenna leaves in E3. In E3, Rob6 gets one confessional, tying him with Soozin and Amber for the least amount of face time from his own tribe, after a combined 5 confessionals is Es 1 and 2. Rob is booted in E4. In E4, Rich goes missing for the first time. After a total of 12 confessionals in the first 3 episodes, he gets one as attention shifts to Chapera and the Rob6 boot. Rich is gone in E5. In E5, Sue stars in the IC fiasco yet only merits two confessionals. For someone so central to the drama, pretty invisible really. Jerri, Rich, Colby and Ethan all have more face time. Sue departs in E6. In E6, most of the action centers around the Sue meltdown in Chapera. ABT doesn't have the hard data posted yet but from memory, Colby got very little attention as I remember it but please feel free to crrect me if I'm wrong. Colby is gone in E7. In E7, Jerri takes over center stage as she is set up as the Mogo target. Ethan also gets some face time due to his "blowing it" in the RC/IC but that's about it. In my opinion (again, without the hard data), Ethan wasn't front and center the way Jerri was. Prediction: If the Confessional Theory holds in E8, Ethan is booted. Jerri will be hidden in E8 and will follow him to Loser Lodge in E9. Prediction subject to change as official ABT Confessional Analysis data is made available.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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03-13-04, 06:24 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Confessional analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-13-04 AT 06:25 PM (EST)The problem with your post munson is that it's flawed. My post or my theory? Since I do see at least one spelling error and grammar is always hit or miss here, I guess you're correct either way. In episode 5, Alicia was completely invisible, moreso than any other contestant, and was still there in episode 6. Technically, if you count confessionals, both Tom and Lex were as invisible as Alicia, according the the Survivor Addicts data. Technically. I never stated that the most invisible (least visible?) person was the most likely to go only that the likely boot went UTR before their boot episode. And, yep, she's still there. In episode 7, Rob M. was more invisible confessional wise than anyone, so shouldn't he be going next? One could only hope! But we all believe that's not the case because of other spoiler evidence. I should have qualified this theory by stating that if considering the choice between two or three potential boot candidates after thorough consideration of all other spoiler type information, the theory could indicate the more likely boot possibility. But I didn't. I'll still offer that it does apply to the Colby boot in E7. Colby had 5 confessionals in E5, his highest number to date, as he led the charge to get rid of Rich. And while not invisible, or the most invisible, in E6, he certainly was not out front IMO, hence, he "disappeared" somewhat before he was booted. Anyway, it was only a Theory and not a very good one at that since KLicK nuked it!
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ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-15-04, 09:41 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Pattern to Bootees" |
What I find interesting is the contrast between the finess and skill that some of the cast played with in their first series and the way they flounder and err now. I attribute it to successful teamwork - i.e Tina and Colby together are far better than the sum of their individual efforts, as were Tom, Lex and Ethan. The interplay between team play and individual play is interesting and there does not seem to be a single answer for what it takes to be successful in the game of Survivor.
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-16-04, 02:19 PM (EST)
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16. "The Case for Ethan" |
Just to add another perspective to the discussion... Jerri and Ethan are the next two players to leave the game. We just need to figure out the order. Since many are arguing the case for Jerri, I give you the case for Ethan. Looking at what happened at the last TC, Ethan was completely blindsided. Lex clearly established an alliance based on loyalty amongst lesser challenge threats. With a loss in this episode, MM will have to return to TC with the possibility of a merge looming in the next few days. In a post-merge situation, already down 2 players, Lex cannot afford to keep Ethan for one more round:
- Ethan is a challenge threat
- Ethan is a likely threat to realign with the Chapera/Saboga contingent
By contrast, Jerri can be counted on to vote along alliance lines and she is not a serious threat in individual challenges. It could be argued that keeping Ethan around gives Chapera another major target, but I suspect that Lex would think it simply diminishes his own odds of winning the challenge. Much has been made of Jeff Varner's analysis hinting at a Rob M/Ethan confrontation, but in his initial report, he only noted that Ethan should have "a rather unremarkable presence here" and that "no one who's won this game before will even get close to the jury."
Neither of the three subsequent comments which have been argued to suggest a conflict between Ethan and Rob M are specific in terms of timing within the game:
- Ethan's relationships with Amber, Jenna L and Jenna M
- Ethan throwing "a major pissy diva temper tantrum."
- Rob M's strategy of "rummag through potential contestant closets, find their skeletons and stor them in his back pocket, ready for war." With that in mind, let's look at the fact that the recap was apparently originally planned for this week and changed to next week. Since the recap has previously been used to feature either the next boot as in S2 or the previous boot as in S6, there is nothing conclusive to be drawn from this information. Nevertheless, most of the relationship issues that have been hinted at by Jeff Varner would make fine material as extra footage that is not directly game-related. As we already know all of these players, there is no real need to foreshadow a boot, so it's more likely than not that the recap would follow the S6 model. Much has been made of this shot depicting Jerri sitting apart from the other members of her tribe.
Certainly, the last episode focussed on Jerri's unpleasant personality and the overwhelming desire of her tribe mates to dispose of her as soon as possible. This would seem to indicate that she is primed for removal. But in fact, as munson pointed out here, the pattern this season has been for the profile of the week's boot to dip in the episode preceding their exit from the game. Comparing Ethan and Jerri, it is clear that Ethan's storyline took a backseat in this past episode. OFG's theory would seem to point to Jerri, as she has the only Mogo Mogo lone shots this week. But as with last week, when Ethan was the one with the lone shots, Jerri may actually be safe this week. In one shot, she is shown grimacing while in the other she is shown competing with a bow. The next shot in the preview of that bow sequence is a shot of an arrow hitting the bullseye. Is it symbolic of her ability to survive yet another episode?
   The previews for this season have featured the eventual booted player in confessionals on their boot week:
E3 - Jenna / E4 - Rob C / E5 - Richard / E6 - Sue / E7 - Colby
This week, only two Mogo Mogo players are featured in confessionals in the previews: Ethan and Lex.
 
We know that Lex sticks around for a while. So, Ethan?
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-16-04, 03:43 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: The Case for Ethan" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-04 AT 06:32 PM (EST)You do make some good points, VG. But I still think it's Jerri. But in fact, as munson pointed out here, the pattern this season has been for the profile of the week's boot to dip in the episode preceding their exit from the game. I don't necessarily see this. While the total number of confessionals may have dipped, sometimes that was just because the focus was on a different tribe in the pre-boot episode, imo. I would argue that Jenna, Rob and Sue had NO profiles/stories established for them *until* their boot episodes; they were always in the background. Ethan's had a story line going since Ep 1, though it fades in and out of prominence. Colby's and Jerri's story lines revved up with the dissolution of Saboga, and theirs are more entangled with each other then either one's is with Ethan's, imo. As Shakes pointed out, Colby was painted as a huge target in Episode 5, then got booted the next time Mogo went to TC. Jerri was painted as a huge target last week, so why can't she go next if editing is consistent? Also, if Ethan goes this week, presumably Jerri goes post-merge at the hands of Chapera, because Lex wins immunity. But all the talk of how Kathy and Shii Ann dislike Jerri, coupled with the fact that Lex made an alliance with Jerri which he may or may not keep, are significant, imo. If Jerri were going to outlast all three of them, that would be one thing; but since we're quite sure she doesn't outlast *any* of them, I can only suspect that they, not the Chaperas, will be responsible for her exit.
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-16-04, 05:14 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: The Case for Ethan" |
Hi Brownroach -When I mention the profile of the week's boot dipping in the week prior to their boot, I am not referring solely to confessionals, but more generally to their on-screen presence and to the prominence of their storyline. Is it front and center or on the back-burner? Jenna was an unusual case, in that she was the E3 boot and her exit could not be foreshadowed through game play. While she would probably have been the first one out of her tribe, there was no reason to show that to viewer. I grant you that Rob didn't have much of a story line, but part of that has to do with the early 3 tribe set-up. Within the original Chapera tribe, however, he was the one who had this ebb-and-flow pattern. He also had the confessional-in-the-previews pattern. I strongly disagree about Sue not having a storyline until her boot episode. It may not have been a very interesting one, but her story was featured from the start. Given the explosive nature of her departure and the chronology involved, however, she is the one who doesn't fall into the ebb-and-flow pattern.
In terms of Jerri's exit, it may not matter who is responsible for her boot. This is *not* your typical merge. Going into that TC, current Chapera will have a 2 person advantage and will come out with a 3 person advantage. It really does not matter *who* gets voted out, as they can afford to pick off MM one at a time or even go into their own tribe and remove a player if they so choose. Why not get rid of the player with whom most of them have difficulty and keep camp life as stress-free as possible?
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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03-16-04, 11:37 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: The Case for Ethan" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-04 AT 11:38 PM (EST)When I mention the profile of the week's boot dipping in the week prior to their boot, I am not referring solely to confessionals, but more generally to their on-screen presence and to the prominence of their storyline. Is it front and center or on the back-burner? VG, thanks for clarifying this point as it was one I tried, and failed, to make using the confessional data. Whether or not this "pattern" continues is something I'll watch closely. If Jerri does go in E8 (and I don't think she will), I'll consider the matter closed. If Ethan goes, well, folks can choose to disregard it as an indicator, but I don't think I will. It's proven too reliable, IMO.
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rupe_a_dupe_rules 31 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-16-04, 05:54 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??" |
Been thinking about Snewser's scorecard comment in the Jerri and Ethan block - "Lo que viene volando.... volando va" - which translates to "Easy come, easy go"."EZ come EZ go" makes me think he's saying E.Z. - Ethan Zohn - goes first. Snewser does like to be cryptic... OK, it's a stretch. But I had to say it anyway.
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RopesandChains 33 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-16-04, 05:57 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??" |
Or perhaps Easy Come, Colby's boot.........Easy Go, Jerri's boot
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Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-16-04, 11:54 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??" |
BUMP...VG was right in her theories!
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-17-04, 00:00 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??" |
The F4 Curse is real! Lex, Tom and Kathy had better watch out. Actually, it won't surprise me if it stops suddenly (the cast was F4 heavy after all), but I bet LizLiz is real happy she decided yo pass.
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-02-04, 09:25 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Pattern to bootees" |
So how many people are surprised that the first non-finalist to get the old boot is Jerri?
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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