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Original Message
"Pattern to bootees"
Posted by esquire on 03-12-04 at 09:50 AM
There has been an interesting commonality to the Survivors that have been booted so far and its somewhat related to the idea of voting off the winners.

When the game started there were 18 Survivors. 11 of the 18 Survivors were finalists when they played the game the first time (I define a finalist as someone who made it to the last episode or to put it differently someone that finished in 4th place or better). The remaining 7 Survivors finished between 6th and 10th place. So far in All Star Survivor all 7 of the bootees have been players who were finalists the first time around. NONE of the Survivors that finished worse than 4th the first time around have been booted yet. With Ethan the favorite to go next week, that would make it 8 of 11 finalists compared to none of the 7 non-finalists.

All Star Survivor has definately been a game that has been decided by jealousy of the prior non-winners. It also means that things don't look good for Ethan or the remaining finalists (Lex, Kathy, and Tom) during the next feww weeks

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by EMT135 on 03-12-04 at 10:27 AM
Interesting, Esquire. I hadn't thought about it, but you make an excellent point. We've been focusing a lot on winners, but not so much on finalists.
I do believe that one of the four finalists from previous seasons has a good shot to make it to the F4 based on editing up to this point (Tom), but we'll see what develops from here.
EMT
"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by bobscure on 03-12-04 at 11:32 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-12-04 AT 11:52 AM (EST)

I thought this was obvious from the start. If you're coming to a merge, surround yourself with a bigger targets or do what Lex did and become a sitting duck. Mogo had the chance to do that by voting out Shii early on then Jerri last night. By allowing the weaker players or players who didn't do as well the first time to control your future the strong players condemn themselves to the weak players past.

Tom hangs around longer because there's been no opportunity to vote him out! Rob C's the only member the Chappy's have had to vote out. After the merge do the Chappys want to vote out Alicia or Tom? Challenge threat Lex or Tom? Any of the other Mogos or Tom?


"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by JohnMc on 03-12-04 at 12:13 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-18-04 AT 01:22 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-15-04 AT 03:21 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-12-04 AT 12:18 PM (EST)

Excellent point. Look at the prior placing of the bootees so far:

Tina (1), Rudy (3), Jenna M (1), Rob C (3), Rich (1), Sue (4), Colby (2), Ethan (1)

Average placing of bootees = 2

Here is the placing, alphabetically, of those remaining:

Alicia (9), Amber (7), Jenna L (7), Jerri (8), Kathy (3), Lex (3), Rob M (10), Rupert (8), Shii Ann (10), Tom (4)

Average placing of remaining players: 6.9

The best placing 1st round players still in the game are Ethan, Kathy, and Lex.

Other interesting factoids:

1a. 3 of the 4 S1 players are gone
1b. ALL of the evil Tagi alliance are gone. The only remaining S1 contestant is Pagong
2a. 2 of the 5 S2 players are gone
2b. The core of the Okagor alliance is gone
2c. The expendable fringe of Okagor is still playing
2d. Alicia is the only Kucha member playing, and she's still around
3. ALL of the Boran boys are still playing
4. All of Marquesas players are still playing.
5. The only S5 player is still playing
6. Both of the Amazon players are gone.
7. Rupert is still playing.

This is definitely revenge of the underdogs!

edit to comment on bobscure's post:

<<By allowing the weaker players or players who didn't do as well the first time to control your future the strong players condemn themselves to the weak players past. >>

You know, what the "weaker players" figured out VERY early on is that they need to gang up on the "stronger players." Had the "stronger players" realized that early on, they might have prevented the dominance of the "weaker players." As it is, the chances of a former "finalist" to win are getting slimmer by the weak!

edit to adjust averages following the Ethan boot. This means that all the bootees had an average placing of 2nd, and the remaining players finished almost 7th.

"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by bobscure on 03-12-04 at 12:47 PM
But the nimrods should have known that going in! Colby's Big Gun" reasoning was a crock. How can the other player perceive him as anything but? I love the play on words "As it is, the chances of a former "finalist" to win are getting slimmer by the weak!"

Would the weak have expected a Colby/Lex/Ethan/Kathy alliance, even a temporary one? It would seem that one of the four would have an excellent chance of winning immunity every time.

Bob

"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by Silvergirl1 on 03-13-04 at 01:26 AM

You forgot to include Rupert and Tom in your "Average placing of remaining players".

Official Mermaid Spokesperson of the A.S.S. be the Survivor Game

"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by JohnMc on 03-15-04 at 03:20 PM
oops - will go back and correct that. thx for the catch!
"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-13-04 at 07:37 AM
Just wanted to add, great summation JohnMc!!

"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by ValleyGirl on 03-13-04 at 11:50 AM
Based on the analysis and pattern, it really doesn't look good at all for Ethan either this week or next. Also, Lex and Kathy won't be around for the finals if this pattern continues.
It's looking more and more like RobM, Amber, JennaL & Alicia for final four.
Valley Girl
"Lex, you blindsided me, I thought you were my friend?....."
"Confessional analysis"
Posted by munson on 03-13-04 at 12:37 PM
It seems a pattern is developing with respect to confessionals and face time. Krautboy, et al, at ABT have done a fine job of analyzing this on that site. Here's the link:

http://www.acmebraintrust.com/index.php?page=463&parent=463

A$$ Confesional Theory: The booted player disappears the episode prior to their boot.

Evidence: Jenna 6 has two confessionals in E2 as most of the drama is centered upon Saboga, who will go to TC and vote out Rudy. Rich, Lex and Colby get more attention in Mogo than Jenna. Jenna leaves in E3.

In E3, Rob6 gets one confessional, tying him with Soozin and Amber for the least amount of face time from his own tribe, after a combined 5 confessionals is Es 1 and 2. Rob is booted in E4.

In E4, Rich goes missing for the first time. After a total of 12 confessionals in the first 3 episodes, he gets one as attention shifts to Chapera and the Rob6 boot. Rich is gone in E5.

In E5, Sue stars in the IC fiasco yet only merits two confessionals. For someone so central to the drama, pretty invisible really. Jerri, Rich, Colby and Ethan all have more face time. Sue departs in E6.

In E6, most of the action centers around the Sue meltdown in Chapera. ABT doesn't have the hard data posted yet but from memory, Colby got very little attention as I remember it but please feel free to crrect me if I'm wrong. Colby is gone in E7.

In E7, Jerri takes over center stage as she is set up as the Mogo target. Ethan also gets some face time due to his "blowing it" in the RC/IC but that's about it. In my opinion (again, without the hard data), Ethan wasn't front and center the way Jerri was.

Prediction: If the Confessional Theory holds in E8, Ethan is booted. Jerri will be hidden in E8 and will follow him to Loser Lodge in E9.

Prediction subject to change as official ABT Confessional Analysis data is made available.

"RE: Confessional analysis"
Posted by KLicK on 03-13-04 at 02:04 PM
According to the PI count at Fantasy All Star (SurvivorAddicts), Colby had 3 PI's in episode 6, along with Jerri and Kathy (and Susan over at Chapera). Ethan had fewer (only 2).

In episode 7, Ethan had 4 compared to Jerri's 3 (Shii Ann had 3).

"RE: Confessional analysis"
Posted by Cuauhtewatemoccajava on 03-13-04 at 05:09 PM
The problem with your post munson is that it's flawed.

In episode 5, Alicia was completely invisible, moreso than any other contestant, and was still there in episode 6.

In episode 7, Rob M. was more invisible confessional wise than anyone, so shouldn't he be going next?

"RE: Confessional analysis"
Posted by munson on 03-13-04 at 06:24 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-13-04 AT 06:25 PM (EST)

The problem with your post munson is that it's flawed.

My post or my theory? Since I do see at least one spelling error and grammar is always hit or miss here, I guess you're correct either way.

In episode 5, Alicia was completely invisible, moreso than any other contestant, and was still there in episode 6.

Technically, if you count confessionals, both Tom and Lex were as invisible as Alicia, according the the Survivor Addicts data. Technically.

I never stated that the most invisible (least visible?) person was the most likely to go only that the likely boot went UTR before their boot episode. And, yep, she's still there.

In episode 7, Rob M. was more invisible confessional wise than anyone, so shouldn't he be going next?

One could only hope! But we all believe that's not the case because of other spoiler evidence. I should have qualified this theory by stating that if considering the choice between two or three potential boot candidates after thorough consideration of all other spoiler type information, the theory could indicate the more likely boot possibility.

But I didn't.

I'll still offer that it does apply to the Colby boot in E7. Colby had 5 confessionals in E5, his highest number to date, as he led the charge to get rid of Rich. And while not invisible, or the most invisible, in E6, he certainly was not out front IMO, hence, he "disappeared" somewhat before he was booted.

Anyway, it was only a Theory and not a very good one at that since KLicK nuked it!


"RE: Confessional analysis"
Posted by munson on 03-13-04 at 05:55 PM
Ummmm, never mind.

Thanks, KLicK, for the updates.

"RE: Confessional analysis"
Posted by KLicK on 03-13-04 at 08:20 PM
I'm a math geek who actually plotted this stuff out for seasons 2 - 6. The only time it ever sent me the right direction (on it's own) was when Erin was booted in Thailand (which was a surprise to most people!) Sometime during S7, I decided it was all for nothing.

MB has switched it up so much that it's tough to use. I do think it helps a little, but on its own it's usually useless.

"RE: Pattern to Bootees"
Posted by ADKer on 03-15-04 at 09:41 PM
What I find interesting is the contrast between the finess and skill that some of the cast played with in their first series and the way they flounder and err now. I attribute it to successful teamwork - i.e Tina and Colby together are far better than the sum of their individual efforts, as were Tom, Lex and Ethan. The interplay between team play and individual play is interesting and there does not seem to be a single answer for what it takes to be successful in the game of Survivor.
"The Case for Ethan"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 03-16-04 at 02:19 PM
Just to add another perspective to the discussion...

Jerri and Ethan are the next two players to leave the game. We just need to figure out the order. Since many are arguing the case for Jerri, I give you the case for Ethan.

Looking at what happened at the last TC, Ethan was completely blindsided. Lex clearly established an alliance based on loyalty amongst lesser challenge threats. With a loss in this episode, MM will have to return to TC with the possibility of a merge looming in the next few days.

In a post-merge situation, already down 2 players, Lex cannot afford to keep Ethan for one more round:
- Ethan is a challenge threat
- Ethan is a likely threat to realign with the Chapera/Saboga contingent
By contrast, Jerri can be counted on to vote along alliance lines and she is not a serious threat in individual challenges. It could be argued that keeping Ethan around gives Chapera another major target, but I suspect that Lex would think it simply diminishes his own odds of winning the challenge.

Much has been made of Jeff Varner's analysis hinting at a Rob M/Ethan confrontation, but in his initial report, he only noted that Ethan should have "a rather unremarkable presence here" and that "no one who's won this game before will even get close to the jury."
Neither of the three subsequent comments which have been argued to suggest a conflict between Ethan and Rob M are specific in terms of timing within the game:
- Ethan's relationships with Amber, Jenna L and Jenna M
- Ethan throwing "a major pissy diva temper tantrum."
- Rob M's strategy of "rummag through potential contestant closets, find their skeletons and stor them in his back pocket, ready for war."

With that in mind, let's look at the fact that the recap was apparently originally planned for this week and changed to next week. Since the recap has previously been used to feature either the next boot as in S2 or the previous boot as in S6, there is nothing conclusive to be drawn from this information. Nevertheless, most of the relationship issues that have been hinted at by Jeff Varner would make fine material as extra footage that is not directly game-related. As we already know all of these players, there is no real need to foreshadow a boot, so it's more likely than not that the recap would follow the S6 model.

Much has been made of this shot depicting Jerri sitting apart from the other members of her tribe.

Certainly, the last episode focussed on Jerri's unpleasant personality and the overwhelming desire of her tribe mates to dispose of her as soon as possible. This would seem to indicate that she is primed for removal. But in fact, as munson pointed out here, the pattern this season has been for the profile of the week's boot to dip in the episode preceding their exit from the game. Comparing Ethan and Jerri, it is clear that Ethan's storyline took a backseat in this past episode.

OFG's theory would seem to point to Jerri, as she has the only Mogo Mogo lone shots this week. But as with last week, when Ethan was the one with the lone shots, Jerri may actually be safe this week. In one shot, she is shown grimacing while in the other she is shown competing with a bow. The next shot in the preview of that bow sequence is a shot of an arrow hitting the bullseye. Is it symbolic of her ability to survive yet another episode?

The previews for this season have featured the eventual booted player in confessionals on their boot week:
E3 - Jenna / E4 - Rob C / E5 - Richard / E6 - Sue / E7 - Colby
This week, only two Mogo Mogo players are featured in confessionals in the previews: Ethan and Lex.

We know that Lex sticks around for a while.

So, Ethan?

"RE: The Case for Ethan"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-16-04 at 03:43 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-04 AT 06:32 PM (EST)

You do make some good points, VG. But I still think it's Jerri.

But in fact, as munson pointed out here, the pattern this season has been for the profile of the week's boot to dip in the episode preceding their exit from the game.

I don't necessarily see this. While the total number of confessionals may have dipped, sometimes that was just because the focus was on a different tribe in the pre-boot episode, imo. I would argue that Jenna, Rob and Sue had NO profiles/stories established for them *until* their boot episodes; they were always in the background.

Ethan's had a story line going since Ep 1, though it fades in and out of prominence. Colby's and Jerri's story lines revved up with the dissolution of Saboga, and theirs are more entangled with each other then either one's is with Ethan's, imo.

As Shakes pointed out, Colby was painted as a huge target in Episode 5, then got booted the next time Mogo went to TC. Jerri was painted as a huge target last week, so why can't she go next if editing is consistent?

Also, if Ethan goes this week, presumably Jerri goes post-merge at the hands of Chapera, because Lex wins immunity. But all the talk of how Kathy and Shii Ann dislike Jerri, coupled with the fact that Lex made an alliance with Jerri which he may or may not keep, are significant, imo. If Jerri were going to outlast all three of them, that would be one thing; but since we're quite sure she doesn't outlast *any* of them, I can only suspect that they, not the Chaperas, will be responsible for her exit.



"RE: The Case for Ethan"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 03-16-04 at 05:14 PM
Hi Brownroach -

When I mention the profile of the week's boot dipping in the week prior to their boot, I am not referring solely to confessionals, but more generally to their on-screen presence and to the prominence of their storyline. Is it front and center or on the back-burner?

Jenna was an unusual case, in that she was the E3 boot and her exit could not be foreshadowed through game play. While she would probably have been the first one out of her tribe, there was no reason to show that to viewer.

I grant you that Rob didn't have much of a story line, but part of that has to do with the early 3 tribe set-up. Within the original Chapera tribe, however, he was the one who had this ebb-and-flow pattern. He also had the confessional-in-the-previews pattern.

I strongly disagree about Sue not having a storyline until her boot episode. It may not have been a very interesting one, but her story was featured from the start. Given the explosive nature of her departure and the chronology involved, however, she is the one who doesn't fall into the ebb-and-flow pattern.


In terms of Jerri's exit, it may not matter who is responsible for her boot. This is *not* your typical merge. Going into that TC, current Chapera will have a 2 person advantage and will come out with a 3 person advantage. It really does not matter *who* gets voted out, as they can afford to pick off MM one at a time or even go into their own tribe and remove a player if they so choose. Why not get rid of the player with whom most of them have difficulty and keep camp life as stress-free as possible?

"RE: The Case for Ethan"
Posted by munson on 03-16-04 at 11:37 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-04 AT 11:38 PM (EST)

When I mention the profile of the week's boot dipping in the week prior to their boot, I am not referring solely to confessionals, but more generally to their on-screen presence and to the prominence of their storyline. Is it front and center or on the back-burner?

VG, thanks for clarifying this point as it was one I tried, and failed, to make using the confessional data.

Whether or not this "pattern" continues is something I'll watch closely. If Jerri does go in E8 (and I don't think she will), I'll consider the matter closed.

If Ethan goes, well, folks can choose to disregard it as an indicator, but I don't think I will. It's proven too reliable, IMO.

"RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??"
Posted by rupe_a_dupe_rules on 03-16-04 at 05:54 PM
Been thinking about Snewser's scorecard comment in the Jerri and Ethan block - "Lo que viene volando.... volando va" - which translates to "Easy come, easy go".

"EZ come EZ go" makes me think he's saying E.Z. - Ethan Zohn - goes first.

Snewser does like to be cryptic...

OK, it's a stretch. But I had to say it anyway.


"RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??"
Posted by RopesandChains on 03-16-04 at 05:57 PM
Or perhaps Easy Come, Colby's boot.........Easy Go, Jerri's boot
"RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-16-04 at 05:58 PM
Thats all well and good except that he had the quote meaning easy come easy go for the trifecta of Colby, Ethan, and Jerri, so Colby actually went first of that grouping of 3.


Surgeon General G.A.W.K.U.R's of OT

"RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??"
Posted by rupe_a_dupe_rules on 03-16-04 at 07:31 PM
>Thats all well and good except
>that he had the quote
>meaning easy come easy go
>for the trifecta of Colby,
>Ethan, and Jerri, so Colby
>actually went first of that
>grouping of 3.
>

Oops I forgot about that. (blush) Wishful thinking.

So if it means anything, which it probably doesn't, it would mean EZ goes last. Oh well, that's the general consensus anyway.


"RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??"
Posted by Markopolo100 on 03-16-04 at 11:54 PM
BUMP...VG was right in her theories!
"RE: The Case for Ethan, Snewser puzzle??"
Posted by dabo on 03-17-04 at 00:00 AM
The F4 Curse is real! Lex, Tom and Kathy had better watch out. Actually, it won't surprise me if it stops suddenly (the cast was F4 heavy after all), but I bet LizLiz is real happy she decided yo pass.
"RE: The Case for Ethan"
Posted by Krautboy on 03-17-04 at 00:09 AM
VG, Well Done!!! You're the best!



Krautboy

"RE: Pattern to bootees"
Posted by esquire on 04-02-04 at 09:25 AM
So how many people are surprised that the first non-finalist to get the old boot is Jerri?