If Penn's schedule has stayed consistent, then he's got one of the most demanding regimes of anyone: showtime, showtime, showtime -- and that's not even counting Showtime. He won't have much time for training, plus his attitude towards pretty much the entire universe breaks down into three categories: I'm Mocking This, What The Hell, and Roll With It. None of this adds up to an intense competitor. Toss in his relatively low and equally-quirked fan base plus the fact that evangelicals despise him, and I think we're looking at the first boot.

Marissa doesn't have a Standard Female Dancer somatype, and she's another one with a low fan base. She has dancing skill to build on, she can definitely perform, and her public personality can draw people in quickly -- but at the same time, this is a very shallow nation. All we need is enough people saying 'How dare they show us a costume that isn't a size 0!' and we can all wave goodbye to the Tony winner. (Expect the gossip blogs to lead the anti-charge there.)

Adam's another one with a pretty demanding schedule (although he'd have an easier time getting hours off). But Adam's main problem is going to be the female vote. He doesn't have it. Adam's reputation for a large percentage of the voter base breaks down to 'megajerk', and he has less of a chance at a natural, uninvited redemption edit than, say, Scott Peterson. He does have his fans, and gawds know they're loud -- but I'm not sure they can be bothered to watch DWTS, much less lift a phone: true men don't do that sort of thing, and how dare he even ask! Still, VFTW might keep him in for a while.

Cristian's issue is simple: who? I'm sure he's got a fanbase, and it's probably a big, boisterous one that'll see him through to the middle stages without effort. And even so -- who? If you don't watch telenovelas -- which is still the case for a lot of the country -- you don't know who he is. So if he wants to win, he'll have to be two things: very talented and very hot. Hormonal vote or out, because the name recognition isn't going to do it. (He has some US roles in mainstream, but nothing major.)

Mario has the female teen hormonal vote. And how. Actual dance ability may not matter -- but as a singer, he stands a good chance to have some: training for videos and concerts. To a large degree, all he has to do is show up -- at least for the first half of the competition.

Kristi is the one whom I want to think has a lot of natural talent that just needs direction -- but she's also one of the two where I'm afraid her fanbase may keep her around long-past the time when she should have gone out. (On the other hand, she may have the most unforgiving voters. 'One toe out of place! Minus ten calls!')

Priscilla is the one where it may not matter what she does. She can haul a chair out to center floor, sit on it, fall asleep, and get sixteen million calls -- if the Elvis fans line up behind her. Fanatical fanbases much? Bring in Graceland, and Priscilla almost has to be F3. Anyone want to explain how to keep them out?