LAST EDITED ON 10-31-03 AT 04:36 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 10-30-03 AT 02:08 PM (EST)
Edited to change Rhino/Osten:
I was pondering this last night as I re-watched the past 5 episodes. I know it is kind of reverse speculation, but I think you will find it interesting none the less, and it may help us to speculate further into the future.
Here in my opinion is what the Drake tribe has lost since deciding to "throw" the chess/checkers IC. (All speculation below is done with the knowledge that you can not sit out the same players for back to back challenges)
1. If they had not thrown the challenge, would they have won it? I believe that yes they would. It was close even though Rupe, Trish, and Burton sat out and they threw it. But, if they had tried to win it, and had Rupe, Jon, Shawn, Christa, and Michelle competing I believe they would have easily won.
2. So if they hadn't thrown the challenge, would the extra reward for winning the IC to kidnap a player from the other tribe still have existed? I do not think so. I think MB got wind of Drake wanting to throw the IC, so it was added in to penalize them, and to try to show future survivors that throwing challenges is a stupid idea. Not to mention add some strength to the pathetic Morgan tribe.
Edited 10/31 to add the following:
I found this from VerucaSalt in a thread reagarding the press conference:
The producers did not know that Drake was going to throw the chess challenge and therefore did not purposely make that challenge the kidnap reward. Meaning a Morgan would have gone to Drake if Drake had won
So in that case my statement above in 2 would change slightly to say that by throwing the challenge they also screwed themselves out of "kidnapping" a Morgan, they probably would have taken Savage since at that point he was clearly their leader. Or wouldn't it have been funny if they took Osten for his presumed strength? (end of edit)
3. If Morgan had gone to EP4 TC, who would they have voted off? Most likely Darrah, leaving Osten, Andrew, Rhino, and Tijuana.
4. Would Morgan have won the next RC on their own? A resounding NO. RC of EP5 was the boat race/ diving to get the ladder pieces that Rupert practically won it single handedly for Morgan. It would have been Drake (Rupert-paddle & diving, Sandra & Burton- paddling, and Trish-steering) vs Morgan (Rhino- paddling & diving, Osten & Tijuana- paddling, Andrew- steering). Not to mention that Morgan would have had 3 more days without food (since Rupert had provided them with fish), they would have had their shelter ruined by the waves, or at least had to expend energy putting up more sand and log barriers (since Rupert helped them move shelter), and they would have been on a losing streak with demoralized spirit of 7 challenges in a row.
5. So Drake wins the RC of the shower, towels, soaps, raincoats, pots, carrying jugs, etc instead of Morgan. (plus Morgan doesn't get to loot the rice) Drake would also get to loot 1 item. Say Jon goes for Drake, and takes their pot to cripple them (it would have been their last one) or maybe just a canteen or the machete, (I mean what else can you take from them if it got to this point...the pelican 
).
6. Would Morgan still have won the EP5 IC of the smoothee bar? If they kept the same rules, that nobody sits out, its now 8 vs 4. That means that all members of Morgan would have to go twice just to complete the first round. Their stomaches have gotten smaller since being out there 15 days, so if all was still tied after going twice through, lets say the tie breaker is between Tijuana and Sandra. Would Tij be able to keep down a 3rd shake? Plus the sardine? I doubt it, Sandra barely lost to Darrah when they each had the same amount in their tummies. Drake wins this in my opinion.
7. Now Morgan has to vote off either Osten or Rhino. I believe Andrew and Tijuana have a very close alliance from all that I have seen. I also believe that if it had gotten to this point in the game and Morgan having to decide between those 2, it would be bye bye Osten.
8. That brings us to last weeks EP6. The RC was shooting the cannons at targets for thick juicy steaks, spices, and lobsters. Drake won this one, and with 8 players their biggest decision would have to be who to sit out.
9. EP6 IC was the one with the weights being put on the bars. With only 3 Morgans, I think they would have had to had a different challenge. Maybe it would have been 2 loaders vs 1 loadee in a standoff. If that was so, then the standoff would have been between Rupe and Andrew. Pretty sure Drake would win this one too.
I think you get the picture that when Drake threw the challenge they really screwed themselves out of a real pagonging of the remaining Morgans. Maybe MB would have thrown something else in to shake up the balance if indeed Drake continued to win, but who knows.
I also believe that the big twist with the GT was going to happen no matter what, but how that would have played out with 8 Drakes, 2 Morgans, and a GT made up of 6 Morgans, I'm not sure. So from a watching standpoint, I am sooooooo glad Drake threw the challenge.
So what does the future hold for Drake now that they can't turn back time? Going into the merge after losing Shawn and Osten tonight and resurrecting Lill and Burton, we will have the following 10 players:
Andrew, Rhino, Tijuana, Darrah, Lill, Rupert, Christa, Sandra, Burton, and Jon. (5 of each original tribe)
Andrew and Tijuana are tight, Rupert, Christa, and Sandra are tight. That leaves Rhino, Darrah, Burton, Lill, and Johnny Fairplay as outsiders that need to bond with somebody.
Rhino and Darrah would remain loyal to the Morgan's. Burton could easily side with them too since he may not like the way he was cast off. Lill seems like maybe a forgiving person who might not hold a grudge against Andrew since he is real good about selling himself. I see Johnny Fairplay as the first boot from the merged tribe and doesn't make the jury. After that I see them going in about this order:
Rupert, Burton, Christa, Rhino (because Sandra won IC), Sandra, Tijuana, Andrew, Lill (UTR), Darrah (UTR- and picks Lill because she thinks would have a better chance to win rather then Andrew, she already had beat Lill in EP3 voting after all).
IMO- The Drake throwing of the challenge will go down in Survivor history as one of the biggest game blunders. The Drake tribe will make the survivor hall of shame.
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